Archive for Zach Duke

There are a sundry of middle/set-up relievers that can succeed in the closer role if given the opportunity. A few obvious: Wade Davis if something happens to Greg Holland… Wil Myers for James Shields and who?!; Ken Giles if the Phillies can somehow find a trade partner for the grundle-grabber; and Brad Boxberger if not Jake McGee. I assume David Robertson signs elsewhere and Dellin Betances steps in.

Lets’ look at potential closers using reliever outcomes. Here are the average contact and balls in play-related outcomes for all relievers that qualified and specifically relievers with 10+ saves:

Our Filters: 

• Contact-related outcomes: For K-BB%, Ct% and SwStr%, I filtered simply by the general relief pitcher averages. Everyone below average in these 3 categories was filtered out.
• Command-related outcomes: For zone% and first-pitch-strike%, I used 1 standard deviation below average and 1.25 SD’s below average in BABIP as filters. 1.25 SD allowed me to omit only the relievers that had career BABIP’s higher than we would like to see for a closer or in general. I didn’t want to screen out Jenrry Mejia (1.24 SD below the mean) or Tim Stauffer (1.19 SD below), because there’s a possibility for BABIP regression.
• Balls In Play-related outcomes: I was lax on the balls in play outcomes. I went with a 40% Grounder rate and 45% Flyball rate as my filters versus the averages that you see above because below average fly-rates don’t mean much in places like Tampa (where Boxberger is elite but below average in fly-rates); and above average grounder-rates don’t mean as much with atrocious defense behind you (hence Corey Kluber’s unlucky BABIP, which should have been closer to .299 per end-of-season xBABIP/Inside Edge data), but I digress.

Using these filters, we’re left with a robust list of above-average relievers beyond just closers (scroll down for the noted filters):

What happens if we use the command (K-BB%)/contact (Ct% and SwStr%) related averages for relievers with more than 10 saves this year? 

…We’re left with some elite closers and then a few interesting names.

Last year, Danny Farquhar (just missed the list this year) had a top 20 swinging-strike rate – about a percent better than Fernando Rodney, but it was masked by his BABIP and left-on-base rate that killed his surface stats (4.20 ERA vs. 2.40 xFIP). This year, he actually outperformed his xFIP with a 2.66 ERA. After an early season MASH Report on Rodney’s velocity, I eyed Farquhar. At least keep him in mind next year if anything does happen to Rodney.

Josh Edgin (Mets for those of you that don’t know) has a top 65 contact-rate sandwiched between Mark Melancon and Jake McGee and even induced grounders 50% of the time. He has a pretty extensive repertoire as well. In order of usage: Fourseamer, Slider, Curve, Change, Cutter and Sinker. According to his Brooks Player Card, he has great swing and miss rates on his Curve (>56%), Cutter (50%), Slider (>42%) and Sinker (33%). Even his Change approaches 30%. This isn’t the case on his Fastball, but at 93+ MPH, it induces a decent amount of grounders (1.8 GB/FB). Keep in mind he had late-season elbow issues which effected his velocity by a MPH or so, but he could be called upon to get Mejia out of a jam. I like him better than an unhealthy Bobby Parnell and Jeurys Familia from a command perspective for another year.

Zach Duke did his best Craig Kimbrel impression prior to the R2M monster hitting him in August. Prior to 8/1, Duke had a 34.9% K-rate and 27.3 K-BB%. Kimbrel ended the year with a 38.9% K-rate and 28.3 K-BB%. I think August and September brought him back to his realistic value (~2.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). It will be interesting to see who closes for the Brewers if they let Francisco Rodriguez go. Both Duke and Will Smith have above average (even for RP w/ 10+ saves) swing-and-miss. Will Smith should have additional command next year, but Zack Duke induces grounders better which I like in my closers/in Milwaukee. They also have Jonathan Broxton. The hierarchy seemed to be K-rod-Broxton-Smith late last season. If that’s the case, they should use Duke more (former starter) and in higher leverage situations. He was equally solid against both lefties (.258 wOBA) and righties (.262 wOBA).

Oliver Perez everybody! I thought I could filter him out by his splits being a lefty, but like 2012, he was more effective vs. righties (and faced 44 more of them). The D-backs have Addison Reed, up-and-comer Evan Marshall as well as Daniel Hudson caught touching 97 MPH so if not by outcomes or splits, we can filter Perez out by opportunity.

Darren O’Day and Andrew Miller is part of one dominating Baltimore bullpen – one that gets referenced by anyone who thinks the Orioles can beat the Tigers in the ALDS. Notice that Zach Britton didn’t make either of the above lists! He was filtered out by his below average K-BB% (13.70%). It’s his 75+% grounder rate (hence the 81+% left-on-base rate and .215 BABIP) that keeps him elite in Baltimore. The only concern you can have with O’Day is a fastball velocity almost 2 standard deviations below the mean for relievers, but his arm angle combined with that slider still induces a 30+% whiff-rate on both pitches. Miller’s slider though is a world apart from O’Day’s: only Pedro Strop, Will Smith, Jake Diekman, Greg Holland and Oliver Perez induces more whiffs than Miller’s 55% according to Baseball Prospectus’ Pitchf/x Leaderboards.  I doubt we’ll see a closer-transition next year in Baltimore unless Britton’s GB/FB ratio takes a drastic dive because his HR/FB ratio, which approached 18%, could be an issue.

An xBABIP review

On the last day of the season, @jeffwzimmerman provided me with Pitch xBABIP based on inside edge data. Let’s look at some of the bigger xBABIP differentials to keep in mind:

The last column depicts the z-score for BABIP differential. Francisco Rodriguez was expected to have a BABIP about 120 points above his actual BABIP. I highlighted (red/bad; green/good) the xBABIP z-scores as well so that you know whether or not to actually be concerned meaning sure Aaron Sanchez has the 5th biggest BABIP differential (over 2 standard deviations from the mean), but a .239 xBABIP is still utterly elite (3.34 SD’s from the mean). On the other side of the equation, it’s nice to see Evan Marshall, Carlos Martinez and Adam Ottavino (albeit in Colorado) with large BABIP differentials. Marshall and Martinez even have xBABIP’s over .5SD from the mean.

The last bit of fun

It was a very fun year to be doing bullpen reports for RotoGraphs. Aroldis Chapman broke the single-season strikeout rate of 2012 Craig Kimbrel (50.2%). He struck out 52.5% of the hitters he faced. Andrew Miller (42.6%) and Brad Boxberger (42.1%) also made the top 10 seasons ever. Dellin Betances (39.6%), Wade Davis (39.1%) and Craig Kimbrel (38.9%) made the top 20. Chapman’s swinging-strike% of 20% beat ’12 Kimbrel by .8%, but he couldn’t pass ’04 Lidge, ’03 Gagne, ’04 Gagne, ’02 Gagne or ’05 Lidge. Chapman, Miller, Doolittle, Boxberger, Betances (Wade Davis and Kenley Jansen close behind) all had historical, top 20 K-BB rates. Relievers dominate this list: only ’99 Pedro Martinez (#12), ’00 Pedro Martinez (#21), ’01 Randy Johnson (#27) and ’01 Pedro Martinez (#28) make it into the top 30, but it’s clear that we have a growing list of elite relievers.

From a fantasy perspective, thanks to 45+ saves totals out of Holland and Kimbrel, we had two relievers ranked in the top 20 pitchers. If Chapman didn’t miss time and Betances and Davis consumed the closer role, we would have had 3 others. Last year, Craig Kimbrel and his 4 wins, 50 saves, 98 SO’s, 1.21 ERA and .88 WHIP campaign made him the 3rd most valuable pitcher. This year with Kershaw, Cueto, Felix and Kluber, it would have taken even more.

If we combined the 3 more dominating performances exclusive of saves this year: Aroldis Chapman’s K-rate (52.5%) and saves total (36), Dellin Betances IP (90) – who was dominating in his own right, Wade Davis’ ERA (1.00) and Wins total (9) and Sean Doolittle’s WHIP (.73) – let’s call this guy Aroldellin Dooldavis, we would wind up with a 10.95 z-sum…just above Corey Kluber (10.72), but under Clayton Kershaw (13.74), Johnny Cueto (12.95) and Felix Hernandez (12.50). Even 50 saves wouldn’t have done the trick (12.43 z-sum):

Earlier today, in Part I of the series, I published a chart of 38 pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break and their 2nd half ERAs. Here I want to go into more detail rather than just giving a raw score for the two metrics.

In rating the two systems, I considered the metrics to recommend keeping a pitcher if at the All-Star break they were at 3.50 or lower, to listen to a trade if they were between 3.51 and 4.00, to actively look to sell the player if they were between 4.01 and 4.50 and to either sell or cut a pitcher if they were above 4.51.

Of course, we also have to consider what the pitcher’s actual ERA was at the break, too. A pitcher could still be a sell candidate if one of the metrics was significantly higher than his ERA. For these extreme cases, I considered a difference between 50-75 points to be a “listen” candidate, while above 75 to be a “sell high” guy.

Felipe Paulino – pitched in just 5.2 innings after the break. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to a lack of playing time.

Francisco Liriano – His second half ERA was better than his first half mark, but both metrics thought he was outstanding before the All-Star break. This is a clear win for xFIP.

Anibal Sanchez – His 2nd half ERA (3.44) was a near-perfect match for his first half FIP (3.46).

Clay Buchholz – Both systems thought Buchholz was not nearly as good as he was in the first half. FIP had his as a keep while xFIP said he was an active sell. Since Buchholz did even better in the second half of the season than the first, this was a clear victory for FIP.

Josh Johnson – Both systems had Johnson as a keeper, but xFIP did a better job predicting his 3.50 post All-Star break mark.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – After allowing 4 HR in 71 IP in the first half, Matsuzaka served up 9 HR in 82.2 IP after the break. Big win for xFIP.

Johan Santana – His 3.00 ERA in the second half almost identical to his first half mark of 2.98. xFIP had Santana as a cut, so an easy win for FIP.

Jason Vargas – Eight of his 14 starts after the break came on the road and he allowed eight of his 10 second half HR away from Safeco. Big win for xFIP.

Justin Verlander – In the last three years, Verlander has posted an ERA over 5.50 in the month of April. He was terrific from May 1st through the end of the season again in 2010. Easy win for FIP.

Barry Zito – A lousy second half of the season made Zito a spectator for the Giants in the post-season. xFIP did an outstanding job predicting Zito’s collapse.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Just like with Zito, xFIP was just about perfect predicting Jimenez in the second half.

Tom Gorzelanny – Both systems saw Gorzelanny as a pretty good pitcher, but xFIP came closer to his second-half collapse.

John Danks – Again, the crystal ball for xFIP was right on target for Danks.

Tommy Hanson – In both seasons in the majors, Hanson has outperformed his xFIP. He turned it up a notch in the second half of 2010, thanks as much to his .233 BABIP as his 7 HR in 100.1 IP.

Matt Cain – Another pitcher with a history of outperforming his peripherals, Cain beat his FIP by nearly a run and his xFIP by nearly two runs in the second half of 2010.

Clayton Kershaw – Just as good in the second half of the season as he was in the first.

Cliff Lee – Many people wanted to eliminate Lee from this study last year, as he went from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park. But Lee outpitched his xFIP after the break in 2009. No such luck for Lee this year while following a similar story line of moving to a tougher park for pitchers.

C.J. Wilson – Like Kershaw, he was remarkable consistent between halves and ended up as a win for FIP.

Livan Hernandez – Those of us who kept predicting the bottom to fall out for Hernandez in 2010 are still waiting. Meanwhile, his second half ERA of 4.02 was a perfect match for his first half FIP.

Doug Fister – I imagine even the staunchest FIP supporters were shopping Fister every chance they could.

Fausto Carmona – After back-to-back seasons with a BB/9 over 5.00, Carmona allowed just 29 BB in 94.0 IP after the break last year. That had more to do with it than HR rate (10 HR in 94 IP) for why FIP was a clear winner.

Gavin Floyd – Fantasy owners did not know start from start what to expect from Floyd, but xFIP did a nice job of predicting his second half ERA.

Mark Buehrle – Like Wilson and Kershaw, Buehrle was a model of consistency with his ERA between halves this year. However, I worry about his K/9 rate and would be shocked if he was on any of my teams next year.

Brandon Morrow – With the Blue Jays out of the race, they decided to shut down a healthy Morrow after his first September start, which limited him to 46.1 IP after the break. A polar opposite to Buehrle, Morrow posted a 10.95 K/9, up from 8.14 a season ago.

Johnny Cueto – Cueto’s second half ERA was in the range predicted by his first half FIP and xFIP. But it was just 0.05 away from his FIP.

John Lackey – His second half ERA of 3.97 was a nice match for his 3.89 career mark but I doubt that makes too many Red Sox fans happy about his season and the team’s remaining obligation to him.

Kevin Correia – The first player on our list to have a big discrepancy between his FIP and xFIP due to a high HR rate, Correia did not show much regression in the second half of the year. Those who thought he would rebound, especially considering his home park, were disappointed. Correia allowed 13 HR in 82.1 IP in Petco this year.

Cole Hamels – Just like in 2009, one pitcher from the high HR rate side completely turned things around to become one of the best pitchers in the second half. Hopefully, Hamels has more luck in 2011 than 2009’s entry did. Rich Harden had a 5.58 ERA in 20 games with the Rangers this year after having a tremendous post-break performance (2.55 ERA) in 2009.

Nick Blackburn – Both systems would have advised cutting Blackburn, who responded with a 3.94 ERA in the second half, as he showed a big across-the-board improvement, including a microscopic 1.83 BB/9.

Kevin Millwood – Most of the players with a high HR/FB rate come back as not worth the risk by both systems. But xFIP said Millwood was significantly better than he showed in the first half and did an excellent job projecting his post-break ERA.

Jeff Karstens – An sore shoulder led to just one appearance in September. I regret the pain suffered by Mr. Karstens but it’s probably just as well that it played out that way.

Zach Duke – Hard to believe he made the All-Star team in 2009. Since then he is 11-23 with a 5.52 ERA.

James Shields – Both systems predicted a big bounce-back performance in the second half by Shields but that never materialized. He continued to give up HR by the basket, saw his K/BB ratio drop by over a full point and saw his BABIP increase to .362 after the break.

Brian Bannister – Limited to 25.2 IP in the second half due to rotator cuff tendinitis.

Randy Wolf – Both systems saw Wolf as waiver wire fodder but he had a 2.67 ERA in his final 13 starts, which was right after I placed him on waivers in a dynasty league.

Doug Davis – Elbow tendinitis kept Davis from pitching after the All-Star break.

Ricky Nolasco – FIP was nearly perfect with its Nolasco forecast, a marked departure in recent history, as he has generally underperformed his peripherals the past two seasons. Of course, Nolasco pitched just 47 innings after the break due to knee surgery.

Ian Kennedy – Neither system thought much of Kennedy going into the break but xFIP had a brighter outlook. Meanwhile, Kennedy put it altogether after the All-Star game, with Quality Starts in seven of his last nine outings. He finally started pitching well in his home park. In his last three games in Chase Field, Kennedy allowed 4 ER (0 HR) in 19 IP.

*****

When I started this comparison in 2009, my belief was that you would be just as well off using either system. After last year, there was a definite raw advantage for xFIP but now with two years worth of data, the two systems are basically even. Overall, there have been 72 pitchers who’ve had a 0.50 or greater difference between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break. Here’s how they did if you used their first half FIP or xFIP to project their second half ERA:

xFIP – 37
FIP – 34
Push – 1

Both systems have strengths and weaknesses. Generally speaking, xFIP does a better job with non-elite pitchers with low HR rates while FIP does a better job with elite hurlers. So, if a Tom Gorzelanny is cruising along with a sub-7.0 HR/FB rate, it appears you should look to sell high. But if it’s Justin Verlander, perhaps you should hold onto him.

We know that over the long haul that xFIP is the better metric to use for most pitchers. The issue here is that for one season (or one partial season) there may not be enough time for regression to fully kick in. Let’s look at Tim Lincecum. In the first half of 2009, he had a 3.9 HR/FB rate. In the second half of the season he had a 7.5 HR/9. This year he had a 9.9 HR/FB ratio. He has been regressing towards a normal HR/FB rate since the first half of 2009. But it did not all come in the same season.

Readers have suggested using first half ERA, or a mid-point between first half FIP and xFIP or an average of all three to see which one best predicted second half ERA. I think these are worthwhile suggestions and perhaps ones that we can use in the future (going back retroactively, too) as our sample size increases. We can also eliminate pitchers who did not pitch substantial innings and look for other trends and anomalies as our population gets bigger.

This started with a claim by my friend and colleague Derek Carty that FIP was basically useless for fantasy purposes with other metrics like xFIP available. Right now it appears FIP is making a case not to be tossed into the trash can by fantasy players.

In 2009, I did a column at the All-Star break to see if FIP or xFIP would be more helpful for fantasy players in making trades. This year I did the same thing. You can see the results below

Should Fantasy Owners Use FIP?
FIP Challenge Results Part I
FIP Challenge Results Part II
FIP Challenge 2010

Here is the table from the 2010 article, along with an additional column, the pitcher’s ERA in the second half of the season.

There are 38 pitchers in the above chart. On a raw scale, the two systems were almost identical, with the FIP metric did a better job of predicting 2nd half ERA in 20 cases while xFIP did better 17 times. Furthermore, FIP did a better job of forecasting 14 of the 26 players with low HR/FB rates and both systems got five of the 11 pitchers (Davis being a wash) with high HR/FB rates.

In 2009, xFIP did better on a raw scale, as it did a better job predicting 20 of the 34 pitchers in the sample.

Similar to 2009, most of the pitchers fell outside the range predicted by FIP and xFIP. For example, Liriano’s FIP was 2.18 while his xFIP was 2.97. But he had a 3.31 second half ERA. Only seven of the 37 players listed above had a second half ERA between their first half FIP and xFIP. The two systems were close on this, too, with FIP being better on four of these seven pitchers. In 2009, 28 of the 34 pitchers had second half ERAs outside the range of their first half FIP and xFIP numbers.

Later today I will post a breakdown of all 38 pitchers in this survey.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Four.

Mark Buehrle – He has allowed six runs in back-to-back outings and his K/9 rate has dipped to 3.86, the worst mark of his career. His walk rate is the highest it has been since his rookie season. Buehrle has been unlucky with his strand rate, but that has been cancelled out by a low HR rate. And to make matters worse, the White Sox offense is 12th in the league in runs, averaging just 3.69 per game. Sit Buehrle this week for his road starts in Texas and New York.

Wade Davis – After struggling in his first outing against the Yankees, Davis has put up back-to-back strong outings. Still, his peripherals are all over the map, with a terrible walk rate (5.82), a low BABIP (.205) and an elevated HR rate (18.2). Davis is lucky to have a 2.65 ERA. But I think the walks will come down and the other rates will stabilize, making Davis a good option to put in the lineup this week, especially with two home starts.

Zach Duke – The Pirates scored a combined 17 runs in Duke’s first two starts, helping him get out to a 2-0 record. But Duke is doing worse than his usual poor marks in strikeouts, while both his BB and HR allowed are up. It all makes for a 4.88 xFIP and a 5.91 FIP. With two road games this week, put Duke on your bench this week if at all possible.

Derek Lowe – The troubles that began in the second half of 2009 have carried over into this year for Lowe. He has managed 3 W despite a 5.24 ERA thanks to three outing where the offense put up 7 or more runs for him. But outside of wins, Lowe has been a very poor fantasy pitcher this year. On top of that he has to pitch this week in St. Louis, where he is 1-6 lifetime, including 0-3 with an 8.80 ERA in the latest version of Busch Stadium. Get him out of your starting lineup this week.

Randy Wolf – A trip to Pittsburgh proved to be the perfect tonic for Wolf, who posted his first strong start of the season in his last outing. Still, after four games, his overall numbers are pretty much where you would expect them to be. He faces two below-average teams in runs scored this week in the Pirates and Padres. While I generally do not like pitchers immediately facing a team they just dominated, this week feels like an exception. Make sure Wolf is active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Four are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, F. Hernandez, Weaver, J. Johnson, Beckett, Carpenter, Haren, Gallardo, Greinke, Liriano, Sanchez, Hudson, Hughes, Jackson, Kuroda, Sheets, Marcum, Wilson, Millwood, Harang, Silva, Latos, Eveland, Padilla, Bonderman, Norris, Lohse, Garland, Huff, Lannan, Gorzelanny, Perez, Hammel, Harrison, Snell, Davies, McCutchen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Two pitchers and how they fared.

Maine – Recommended to sit. 8 Ks, 13.28 ERA, 2.50 WHIP (2 starts).
Pavano – Recommended to start. W, 6 Ks, 7.71 ERA, 1.71 WHIP (2)
E. Santana – Recommended to sit. W, 13 Ks, 3.68 ERA, 1.16 WHIP (2)
C. Young – Recommended to start. DNP
Zito – Recommended to start. W, 4 Ks, 2.70 ERA, 0.97 WHIP (2)

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 26.

Wade Davis – In four games in the majors, Davis has a 10.36 K/9 rate, which makes him a good start on strikeout potential alone. Davis has pitched very well in three of his four outings, with the exception coming in a start at Boston. He has two road starts this week, but the latter one comes on the final day of the season in New York with the Yankees likely resting a lot of their stars. Put him in the lineup this week but do not be surprised if he gets held back from his last start due to a concern about innings pitched.

Zach Duke – In his last five games, Duke is 0-4 with an 8.54 ERA. He has allowed five homers in 26.1 innings over that stretch. His starts this week come against LA and CIN, the last two teams he faced. Expect Duke to get lit up in one of those games so keep him on the bench.

Hiroki Kuroda – In his last nine games, Kuroda is 5-1 with a 2.48 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 54.1 innings. He also has seven Quality Starts in that span. Kuroda missed two months at the beginning of the season with a strained oblique, so he has less mileage on him than most pitchers at this point. Additionally, he has only topped 100 pitches in two starts this season, none in the last 13 games. Look for Kuroda to finish the season on a high note and get him in your lineup.

Jeff Niemann – Despite going winless in his last five starts, Niemann is still pitching well at the close of the season. He has a 3.58 ERA in that stretch with 28 Ks in 32.2 IP. Look for him to break into the win column this week with two home starts. At Tropicana Field this year, Niemann is 5-2 with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.156 WHIP.

Anibal Sanchez – After returning from a stint on the 60-day DL with a strained shoulder, Sanchez has pitched very well. He has a 2.58 ERA with 36 strikeouts in 38 innings in his last seven starts. In Sanchez’ last outing, he two-hit the Phillies over eight scoreless innings. Make sure he is active this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 26 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, F. Hernandez, Beckett, Hamels, Jurrjens, Burnett, Dempster, Pineiro, Danks, Feldman, Marquis, E. Santana, Wells, Porcello, Hunter, Blackburn, D. Davis, Bailey, Duensing, Cahill, Masterson, Richmond, Norris, Laffey, Hochevar, Moyer, VandenHurk, Morton, Narverson, Figueroa, Hendrickson, Karstens, Detwiler, Bazardo.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 24 and how they did.

Garland – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.29 ERA, 6 Ks, 1.14 WHIP (2 starts)
LeBlanc – Advised to start. 1.50 ERA, 5 Ks, 0.67 WHIP (1)
Pavano – Advised to start. 3.46 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.38 WHIP (2)
Snell – Advised to start. W, 2.38 ERA, 6 Ks, 1.32 WHIP (2)
West – Advised to sit. W, 5.23 ERA, 13 Ks, 1.65 WHIP (2)

As a pitch-to-contact starter playing in front of lead-gloved fielders, Zach Duke and the Pittsburgh Pirates went together about as well as oil and water.

Duke zoomed on to the scene back in 2005, posting a promising 2.52 strikeout-to-walk ratio as a 22 year-old. While his 1.81 ERA and a low HR/FB rate (4.5%) in 84.2 innings led to some outsized expectations, Duke had plenty going for him. Whiffing 6.17 batters per nine innings, the Texan also kept the free passes in check (2.44 BB/9). His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on K’s walks and a normalized HR/FB rate) checked in at a quality 3.66.

As a full-time rotation member in 2006, Duke compiled a 4.47 ERA in 215.1 innings. His XFIP climbed to 4.60, as his K rate fell below five (4.89) and his walk rate rose (2.84). Duke was putting the ball in play more often, and his BABIP rose from .296 to .327. The Bucs (28th in team UZR/150) were awful with the gloves in ’06, featuring defensive disasters at multiple positions (Jeromy Burnitz still sends Dave Littlefield postcards for that cool $6.7 million he pulled down that year).

Duke’s young career reached its nadir the following year. His ability to fool hitters completely evaporated as he dealt with left elbow tendinitis. He posted a grisly 5.53 ERA in 107.1 innings. Things certainly weren’t going swimmingly (he K’d just 3.44 batters per nine innings with a 4.79 XFIP), but a .360 BABIP would be enough to make any pitcher curse his fate. Overall, Pittsburgh was about league-average defensively (18th in team UZR/150). But when Duke took the hill, they fielded about as well as a team of Adam Dunn’s.

2008 followed a similar pattern, though not quite as extreme. With a .327 BABIP and 4.23 whiffs per nine innings, Duke compiled a 4.82 ERA (4.81 XFIP). The Bucs were again among the fielding laggards, placing 22nd in team UZR/150.

After a couple years of listless showings with the leather, the Pirates have actually been a plus defensive team in 2009. Pittsburgh ranks third in the majors in UZR/150, trailing only the surprising Brewers and the Rays (who orchestrated a historic defensive turnaround last season). Nyjer Morgan, Brandon Moss, Jack Wilson and Andy LaRoche are all on the plus side, with Adam LaRoche and Nate McLouth a few runs in the negative. Only Freddy Sanchez (-8.6 UZR) is deep in the red among regular starters.

With better support behind him, Duke has posted a .268 BABIP in 2009. In 72 frames, his ERA sits at 2.75. He’s more than likely not going to keep up that level of performance (his XFIP is 4.34), but Duke has a 2.47 K/BB ratio this year after failing to crack two over the past three seasons.

Duke is pitching fairly well, and he’s now being aided by his defense instead of watching them boot easy plays and fail to track balls that most big leaguers would reach. With an 88 MPH fastball and a kitchen-sink approach that entails more deception than brute force, Duke will always be reliant upon the quality of the fielders behind him. Luckily, those guys are picking him up where previous squads hung him out to dry.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 9

Bronson Arroyo – In 10 games this season, Arroyo has a 5.12 ERA and seven wins. That seems less than likely. But Arroyo has been pitching very well since allowing nine runs in one inning on May 6th. He has gone 3-1 in his last four games with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.065 WHIP. He is currently active in only 43 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Get him in the lineup this week.

Joe Blanton – After nine games he has a 6.14 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP. But the strikeouts are better than they’ve ever been (8.42 K/9), he has had a little bit of bad luck with a .354 BABIP and 4.80 FIP and he is coming off his best start ever as a member of the Phillies, with 11 strikeouts and no earned runs in seven innings. Blanton’s HR/9 sits at an ugly 1.58 but he has road games at pitcher-friendly Petco Park and at Dodger Stadium this week. The Dodgers are 12th in the National League in home runs meaning this is a good week to get Blanton active.

A.J. Burnett – He is coming off his best outing of the season but faces a tough road this week with home games versus Texas and Tampa Bay. Burnett has allowed 10 home runs in 64 IP this year and goes up against a Rangers squad that is tied for first in the American League in homers and a Rays team that ranks third. Furthermore, Yankee Stadium has a 1.565 simple HR factor so far this year. It might be a good time to get him out of the lineup for a week.

Zach Duke – Since giving up six runs in his third start of the year, Duke has been remarkably effective, with a 2.66 ERA in his last seven starts. But it seems like he has exceeded expectations. Duke has induced fewer ground balls this season, yet has seen his HR/9 drop to 0.50. Also, he has a nifty 1.11 WHIP despite a 1.46 career mark in the category. At some point these marks are going to regress. Duke has a tough road with a matchup against Johan Santana and a trip to Houston, where he has never won in five games at Minute Maid Park.

Jarrod Washburn – Following two disappointing starts, Washburn got back on track with six shutout innings versus Oakland in his last outing. This week he gets two starts at Safeco Field, where two of his three wins have come this season. Overall, Washburn still has a very nice 3.45 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Owned in just 32.2 percent of ESPN leagues, Washburn could be a good pickup for someone looking to strike paydirt this week with a two-start pitcher.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 9 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Santana, Halladay, Lincecum, Wainwright, Oswalt, Saunders, Chamberlain, Kershaw, Slowey, Wolf, Myers, Matsuzaka, Jimenez, Floyd, Porcello, Volquez, Parra, Kawakami, Sonnanstine, Cook, L. Hernandez, Wellemeyer, Davies, Cahill, Hill, A. Miller, Snell, Wells, Colon, Suppan, Holland, Correia, Huff, Buckner, Paulino, Stammen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 7 and how they did.

Nolasco –Advised to sit. 2 K, 36.00 ERA, 4.50 WHIP (1 start)
Baker – Advised to sit. W, 10 K, 4.72 ERA, 1.20 WHIP (2)
Martis – Advised to sit. 4 K, 7.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP (2)
McCarthy – Advised to start. W, 10 K, 1.69 ERA, 1.38 WHIP (2)
Hammel – Advised to start. W, 8 K, 3.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP (2)

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Hopefully you were able to pick up Matt Holliday and trade Russell Branyan last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Jermaine Dye – He is striking out more than he ever has and his AVG is a disappointing .270 so far. His fantasy value is being propped up by HR but he has a 25 percent HR/FB rate. These are reasons why his current owner might trade him. But Dye has just a .243 AVG at home, thanks to a .234 BABIP at U.S. Cellular. He’s batted over .300 at home two of the last three seasons and has never had an AVG that low in his previous four years in Chicago. Dye is also uncharacteristically struggling versus LHP, against whom he has just a .152 AVG. Lifetime he is a .284 hitter versus southpaws. Even with a regression in HR, the updated ZiPS projects him to hit 24 the rest of the season and finish with 36 HR, which exceeds all of the pre-season projections.

David Aardsma – Since Brandon Morrow blew back-to-back saves on May 13-14, Aardsma has three saves and Morrow has none. Additionally, Morrow has pitched multiple innings in the sixth and seventh in his last three outings. Walks have always been a major issue for Aardsma and this year is no different. But this is a guy who is at the very least in the running for saves and is available on the waiver wire in over half of ESPN leagues.

Aubrey Huff – The updated ZiPS forecast shows Huff finishing below last year’s output in every fantasy category. But Huff is also a notoriously slow starter. At this point last year, Huff was batting .240-6-24 and he finished .304-32-108. It’s almost impossible to predict the finish that Huff enjoyed last season, but since he’s starting from a higher baseline, he doesn’t have quite so far to go. Huff already has a nice .209 ISO and his BB/K numbers are better than a year ago. He currently has a .277 BABIP, 20 points below his lifetime mark and 42 points below what he hit last year.

Joe Saunders – There is not one advanced metric that suggests you should pick him up. But at some point we have to stop looking at what we think he should do and instead look at what he has done. Saunders has a lifetime .691 winning percentage with a sub-four ERA in 73 games. The updated ZiPS forecast is not pretty; it shows him going 9-9 with a 4.40 ERA from here on out. That’s slightly more pessimistic than the pre-season projections forecasted for him. If you can acquire him for the price of his expected ZiPS for the remainder of 2009, I like Saunders’ chances of beating that projection.

Coco Crisp – His .751 OPS is identical to what it was a year ago. But in 2009, Crisp is achieving that with a .250 BABIP compared to a .322 mark last season. He may not crack double-digits in HR this season, but it would not be a surprise to see him bat .300 with 20 SB the rest of the way.

Trade

Jason Bartlett – At some point fantasy owners will start to take Bartlett seriously. Currently, his .373-7-30-32-14 line makes him the third-best fantasy player overall according to CBS Sports. The key for Bartlett owners is to find the moment when other owners feel enough time has elapsed to make him a serious acquisition target. Some owners may never consider Bartlett a trade target. That’s okay. The updated ZiPS shows him compiling a .293-5-36-52-15 line from here on out. Yes, a huge decline from where he is now, but still a valuable fantasy SS that could help most clubs. Bartlett owners have already “won” with his production until now. If they can get equivalent value for Bartlett’s RoS ZiPS at a position of need, that should be a win-win deal for both sides.

Zach Duke – He should be an attractive target for clubs that need pitching with his 2.60 K/BB ratio and 3.56 FIP. But Duke has a .261 BABIP and a 5.9 percent HR/FB ratio. Linear Weights shows his fastball turning from an awful pitch the last three seasons to one that is neutral despite having no increase in velocity. His RoS ZiPS shows him with an ERA of 5.24 and a 5-10 record.

B.J. Upton – The time to get a good return on Upton has come and gone. Now we are left with trying to salvage something for the rest of the year. He is striking out at an alarming rate (31.5%) and hitting for no power (.097 ISO). RoS ZiPS sees him hitting .257 with 11 HR. It is possible his trade value still exceeds that meager production.

Johnny Cueto – Everyone expected Cueto to improve upon last year’s numbers, although not many predicted what he’s produced so far in 2009. But Cueto’s lofty numbers carry several warning signs. His 3.64 FIP is well above his 2.37 ERA. Cueto has benefited from an 83.1 percent strand rate and a .253 BABIP. His K/9 is down 1.2 from a season ago and his HR/9 is less than half of what it was in 2008.

Michael Bourn – A one-category performer (SB), Bourn has actually been a plus in three categories so far, adding runs and AVG to his ledger. But the .366 BABIP won’t last and you should actively shop him to someone looking to make up ground in SB.