Archive for Zach Britton

As we sit and wait for all the big-named free agents to find themselves new homes, it’s time to start thinking about strategy for next year.  There are numerous of ways to go about drafting your team and you’re going to hear plenty of do’s and don’ts from a variety of people.  So allow me to chime in here first and tell you why punting saves should not be in your plans when developing a proper draft strategy.  Some people see no harm in it and tell you to just bulk up elsewhere.  I disagree.  It’s an automatic concession of points to your competition and immediately puts you at a disadvantage.

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On Monday, Tampa’s Jeremy Hellickson and Atlanta’s Craig Kimbrel took home Rookie of the Year honors in the AL and NL, respectively. Both Hell Boy and Kimbrel (this fellow needs a menacing, pee-your-pants-upon-hearing-it nickname) seemingly have very bright futures ahead of them. But winning ROTY doesn’t always mean that a player is destined for long-term stardom (Jason Jennings and Angel Berroa say hi!)

Today, I want to hear you opinions on a different question: which rookie pitcher (minimum 50 IP in 2011) has the most long-term value? In other words, if you could only have one rookie hurler, which would you choose? Below I’ve listed 15 rookie pitchers who are likely to garner consideration, as well as a quick case for and case against choosing each rookie.

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Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 11.

Bronson Arroyo – A 17-game winner a year ago, Arroyo has struggled through most of 2011. Nowhere has he struggled more than with the gopher ball, as Arroyo has allowed 16 HR in 75 IP. Eleven of those have come in his home park and this week the Reds host Jose Bautista and the Toronto Blue Jays. Arroyo has a road start in Dodger Stadium, where in six games lifetime he is 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA. Leave him on the bench this week if you have the depth.

Zach Britton – One of the top rookie pitchers, Britton has held his own pitching in the AL East. He’s been a little lucky with his BABIP (.260) and strand rate (75.7%) but has been a solid pitcher, with a 3.88 xFIP. However, Britton has a large L/R split, as the southpaw has held LHB to a .556 OPS this season. This week he has two road starts (4.94 road ERA so far this year) and he goes up against the Blue Jays, who lead the AL with an .880 OPS against LH starters and the Nationals, who are last in the NL with a .613 OPS against LH starters. Washington is missing Ryan Zimmerman versus lefties but Mike Morse is starting to hit and Jayson Werth has been better over his last three weeks (faint praise). Hold out Britton this week if you have other options.

Josh Collmenter – A 15th round draft pick in 2007, Collmenter is one of the top surprise stories of the year. He is 4-1 with a 1.12 ERA and fantasy owners have been snapping him off the waiver wire the past four weeks. Collmenter basically throws just two pitches and one of them is an 86.7 mph fastball. He succeeds thanks to an unusual delivery and pinpoint control. At some point it seems logical that hitters will adjust to his delivery. But this week he has two home starts and goes up against an AL team and the Giants, against whom he has thrown only two innings. Ride Collmenter in your lineup for another week.

Justin Masterson – It looked like Masterson turned the corner at the beginning of the season, as he began with a 5-0 record with a 2.11 ERA. But in his last six outings, he’s 0-4 with a 4.43 ERA, despite allowing just 2 HR in 40.2 IP. Masterson has done a fine job limiting HR this year and has improved his walks, going from a 3.65 BB/9 in 2010 to a 2.77 mark this year. But he still struggles against LHB (.794 OPS) and his 6.26 K/9 is a career low. The matchups seem okay on the surface, but both the Pirates and Tigers are better than they were a year ago. Sit Masterson if you can.

Carl Pavano – After posting a 6.64 ERA in his first seven games, Pavano has bounced back nicely in his last six outings. He’s posted a 2.49 ERA in that span and has allowed just 2 HR in 43.1 IP. Pavano has two home starts this week and at Target Field he has a 3.06 ERA, a full 2.5 runs lower than his road mark. Additionally, Pavano has allowed just 1 HR at home this year, compared to six in road parks. Make sure Pavano is in your linep this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 11 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, Gallardo, Sabathia, Hamels, Jurrjens, Cain, J. Garcia, Shields, Ogando, Haren, Nolasco, Burnett, Floyd, Kuroda, Lowe, Norris, Dempster, Wolf, Niese, Vargas, W. Rodriguez, Villanueva, Carrasco, Pelfrey, Duffy, Maholm, Moseley, Wells, Duke, Karstens, Wakefield, Coke, Cobb, Volstad, Outman, Cook, Maya

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 7 pitchers and how they fared.

Bedard – Advised to start. 14 Ks, 3.38 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 13.1 IP, 5 ER
Bumgarner – Advised to sit. W, 11 Ks, 1.929 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 14 IP, 3 ER
Carmona – Advised to sit. 5 Ks, 9.58 ERA, 1.839 WHIP, 10.1 IP, 11 ER
Morton – Advised to sit. W, 9 Ks, 2.08 ERA, 1.462 WHIP, 13 IP, 3 ER
Santana – Advised to start. 8 Ks, 6.23 ERA, 1.615 ERA, 13 IP, 9 ER

The Baltimore Orioles are in the process of breaking in a cadre of a highly-acclaimed pitching prospects. Brian Matusz in entrenched in the big league rotation, while Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta have struggled to translate their success in the minors to the highest level. Another blue-chip arm may soon make his major league debut — Zachary Britton could bump the oft-battered Brad Bergesen out of the rotation at some point. Even if Britton doesn’t get the call later this year, he’s a vital part of Baltimore’s rebuilding effort. Let’s examine his long-term value.

The O’s took Britton out of a Texas prep school in the third round of the 2006 draft. The 6-foot-3 lefty added lots of zip to his fastball during his senior year — Baseball America noted that his heater climbed from 86-87 MPH to 92-93 MPH — and he also possessed what BA called a “power curve.” Britton’s velocity did decline during his last few starts leading up to the draft, though. He tossed 34 innings in the Rookie-Level Appalachian League that summer, and he struggled to control the zone (5.6 K/9, 5.3 BB/9, 5.41 FIP). After the season, BA said that Britton sat 86-90 MPH in the Appy League, though they predicted he’d crack the 90’s more frequently as his 180 pound frame filled out.

Baltimore took a cautious approach with Britton in 2007, assigning him to the short-season New York-Penn League. He had 6.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.1 HR/9 in 63.2 IP. According to Minor League Splits, Britton’s park-and-luck-adjusted FIP was 3.95, and he generated ground balls at an impressive clip (64.5 GB%). Baseball America said that he showed “the live low-90’s fastball that made him a third-round pick,” while also developing a sharp slider in the instructional league.

In 2008, Britton enjoyed a breakout season in the Low-A South Atlantic League. Pitching 147.1 frames, he used his sinker/slider combo to strike out seven batters per nine innings, hand out 3 BB/9 and give up 0.5 homers per nine. Britton’s adjusted FIP was 3.92, and he maintained his Brandon Webb-like ground ball rate (63.8 GB%). The next year in the High-A Carolina League, Britton whiffed 8.4 per nine, walked 3.5 and coughed up 0.4 HR/9 in 140 innings. Scorching the earth with a 65 GB%, Britton posted a 3.37 adjusted FIP.

Leading up to 2010, Britton earned plenty of superlatives from scouting types. Baseball America named him the number 63 prospect in the game. John Sickels graded him as a B prospect. “Love the grounders, solid strikeout rate, I’m pro-Britton,” said Sickels. ESPN’s Keith Law was an even bigger fan, ranking Britton 25th on his top 100 list. Law liked Britton’s solid punch out rates and extreme ground ball tendencies, and noted the development of the lefty’s changeup:

Britton is a true sinker/slider pitcher with enough velocity to work as a starter and a potential out pitch in the slider to miss bats when he’s not getting ground balls. His sinker has solid-average velocity with legitimate plus sink, and he’ll flash a four-seamer up to 94. His slider — although not as consistent — flashes plus, and he’s willing and able to backfoot it to right-handed hitters, then throwing the sinker away to get a weak grounder or just a swing and miss. His changeup improved over the course of the season to the point that it’s an average pitch or better, eliminating a major concern for sinker/slider guys — a typical weakness against opposite-side hitters…He would slot in very nicely as a No. 2 starter behind Brian Matusz, or as an outstanding No. 3 behind Matusz and Chris Tillman.

Britton began the year with the Bowie Baysox of the Double-A Eastern League, where he posted rates of 7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and 0.4 HR/9 in 87 innings. He continued to induce grounders like few others (64.1 GB%) while compiling a 3.44 adjusted FIP. Bumped up to the Triple-A International League, Britton has 5.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and nary a homer surrendered in 27.2 IP. The 22-year-old is — you guessed it — burning lots of worms with a 72.2 GB%, and his adjusted FIP sits at 3.47.

The chances of Britton getting ample major league innings this season are slim — the O’s aren’t playing for anything of consequence, and the southpaw is a little more than 30 frames away from his previous career high workload. In keeper leagues, though, Britton is an intriguing option. He’s not going to post elite K rates, but that’s mostly because he’s too busy getting batters to smack the ball into the dirt. Britton misses a solid number of bats, and his control has improved enough that it doesn’t figure to hinder his development. While Tillman and Arrieta get more attention, Britton might just be the better long-term buy.