We’re roughly one month into the season, which means it’s time to update the tiered rankings for each position. Though I wanted to be conservative and not alter too many rankings based on data from only one month, some changes seemed warranted.
Here are the tiers:
There are a number of position battles that have caught people’s attention this spring and with it getting down to crunch time for fantasy baseball drafts, it’s important to know how things are going to play out. One spot, in particular that has drawn plenty of interest is the battle for second base in Kansas City. Originally, the favorite was youngster Johnny Giavotella, but with both Chris Getz and (gulp!) Yuniesky Betancourt having decent springs, things are getting a little interesting.
Back in November I discussed bargain shopping in Houston and how there are still a few hidden gems that would make for strong selections at the tail end of your draft. Well, today, we’re going to look at another perennial cellar-dwelling team and see what kind of fantasy gold can be found. Funny thing, though, is that these Royals — these, more often than not, punching bags of the AL — are looking pretty darn good lately and there’s going to be quite the battle to obtain a number of their players’ services in fantasy drafts this year.
I think everyone is in agreement that shortstop is the [insert name of favorite anorexic celebrity] of positions in fantasy baseball. Once you get past that 2nd tier, it can really turn into a crapshoot. So if you’re not going to grab one of the big names out there, then why not do some bargain shopping and bulk up elsewhere. Here’s a pair of $1 options that may draw some interest… Read the rest of this entry »
It’s getaway day for a long weekend, but I refuse to admit the summer is nearing an end. I’m holding on for dear life. Oh, and here are a couple players that should be on your waiver wire and might be interesting to you.
Yuniesky Betancourt, Royals (18% owned)
Long a laughing stock of baseball, Betancourt is getting some love recently. Longtime critic Joe Posnanki even tweeted the other day that his OPS+ was higher than Derek Jeter’s this year. How’s that for a drink-snarfing moment? Hopefully your league does not count OBP, because he still is walking only 3% of the time this year (3.2% career) and featuring a terrible .289 OBP. Then again, hopefully your league doesn’t count slugging percentage either (.432)… but hey, look at that, the average slugging percentage for shortstops in the American League this year is a paltry .362. So that’s what Betancourt is – a semi-slugger at a position full of limp noodles. In any case, he’s hitting .313 with eight home runs over the past month, so he’s hot. Who knows how long it will continue, but but his BABIP (.273) is still below his career norms (.287), and his line drive percentage, though not great, is decent (18.1%). Betancourt could run into a few home runs while your regular shortstop is hurt, and as much as it pains this skeptic to say it, he has some use in fantasy leagues. Maybe if Jeff Francouer was a shorstop, he would have use in fantasy leagues, too!
Nolan Reimold, Orioles (15% owned)
This is one of those writeups that may inspire a ‘why should we pick this guy up again’ comment. But it’s worth taking a look at a player that will get some playing time this September, whether because of Adam Jones and his wonky shoulder or because the team would like to know if they have the flexibility to trade Luke Scott this offseason. Playing time alone is fantasy gasoline, but the talent has to be the spark to really get the flame going. Earlier this season, Reimold was walking (10.7%) and striking out (24.7%) about the same as career rates (11.35% and 22.1% respectively), but his power had fallen off a cliff (.124 ISO, .174 career, .215 in the minor leagues). Then the team sent him down, and he put up a nasty .249/.364/.374 line that doesn’t inspire any confidence that he found what he was looking for. His .125 ISO down there looked like a middle infielders’ output. There was certainly some poor luck at play – his MinorLeagueSplits.com luck- and park-adjusted line reads a little better (.288/.397/.433) – but the power is still on the lam. Looking at his batted ball profile, his poor line drive percentage in the major leagues stands out (14.1%), but at least he puts the ball in the air and had many .200+ ISO minor league seasons before this year. At 27, he’s no longer as young as you might think, and his time to grab a regular role may be running out. He seems a best fit for a fantasy manager that is out of the running in a deeper keeper league and is looking for a final keeper. Maybe he turns it on in the final month, the team trades Scott in the off-season, and things all fall into place for a cheap outfielder with a little pop. The rest of us can pass, as those are a lot of hurdles for a big firstbaseman to jump before he’s a great option.
The injury to Alex Gordon opens up more playing time this spring for the Royals in the infield. Most of the early speculation has been on Alberto Callaspo and Josh Fields. But one player who should not be counted out is Mike Aviles. After a breakout season in 2008, Aviles crashed last year, mainly due to an injury which required surgery. In Friday’s game that the FanGraphs group caught, Aviles started the game at second base while Callaspo was at third and Fields at first.
Aviles had Tommy John surgery in July. The normal prognosis is for up to a year to come back from the procedure. But Aviles was feeling strong early in camp and there were thoughts he might be ready to play much earlier, possibly even making the Royals as a utility infielder. The plan for the Royals was to give Aviles some early playing time in the Cactus League at second base, where he would not need to use his arm so much to make long throws. And with Gordon going down, it made finding playing time for Aviles even easier.
In his two games so far, Aviles has gone 2-for-3 in each. Additionally, the Royals consider Aviles to be a strong defensive player. Manager Trey Hillman told the Associated Press:
“I asked one of our developmental people if they could identify our most fundamentally sound infielder. Its (sic) Mike Aviles far as textbook fielding a ground ball, approaching a ground ball and doing it right all the time. One of the staff guys grabbed me the other day and said that’s as good as it gets.”
Neither Callaspo nor Betancourt have good defensive reputations. Callaspo put up some good fielding numbers in limited time previously at second base, but was below average last year in 146 games and the perception was even worse than the numbers. Betancourt had a UZR/150 of -23.9 last year, including a -28.6 after being acquired by the Royals.
If Aviles is healthy and has the best defensive option, his playing time might rest with how well he does at the plate. His big year in 2008 was the result of a .357 BABIP. Last year in 36 games he posted just a .223 mark. The projection systems show Aviles with a BABIP ranging from .300-.316 and with an AVG of .270-.284.
If everything goes right, Aviles could produce a .290 AVG with double digit totals in both SB and HR. That could be a nice pot of cheese at the end of your fantasy draft when you are looking to fill your middle infield position.
One other factor to consider is that Chris Getz is on the roster as a contender for playing time at second base. Getz was not overly impressive either offensively or defensively last year, although fantasy leaguers enjoyed his SB output. So, Aviles is potentially vying with both Getz and Callaspo for playing time at second, the position he is likely to play early in the season as he builds up arm strength.
Because of his defensive reputation on the club, Aviles should have a leg up in the competition. And while he may not get a ton of ABs in the spring due to Kansas City spreading them out to all of the contenders, if Aviles proves healthy throughout Cactus League play he has an excellent shot of breaking camp as a starter. And if he does get the playing time, Aviles is a good fantasy option.
There is no greater intersection of fantasy and ‘real’ baseball analysis than the Spring Position Battle. How better to reap the rewards of good number-crunching than the correct prediction of the winner of the lion’s share of playing time at a given position? It’s one of fantasy baseball’s best moments.
And there’s no easier place to look for this feeling than the worst teams in baseball. The worse the team, the younger the team, the more likely they’ll allow an inexperienced young man to steer the helm at a given position. The Pirates, for example, currently have 30(!) players with three years or fewer experience on their 40-man roster.
Follow this string of thought to the end, and you’ll inevitably end up looking at the team being run by the worst GM in baseball (if Tim Marchman is to be believed). There might be some debate about whether or not it’s more important to feature your best players up the middle, but it’s got to be a given that it’s not a good sign to go into camp not knowing who is going to make up your keystone combo. (The name of that combo should really be a clue.)
So we come to the Royals. At the incumbent starting shortstop position stands Yuniesky Betancourt. By WAR, he was the worst position player that qualified for the batting title last year, costing the Royals $2.2 million on top of his $3.375 million salary. He accomplished this (little) feat by walking only 4.1% of the time while also displaying below-average speed (3.9 speed score, 5.0 average) and power (.106 ISO, .155 MLB average). The worst part for such a ‘key’ defensive position? He had a -23.9 UZR/150 last year, which would be less worrisome if he didn’t also feature a negative rating for his career. I’m struggling to find something good to say, but apparently his demeanor can be even worse than his performance.
Let’s just say he doesn’t offer too much of an obstacle, should, say, Mike Aviles step to the fore. Aviles was once a too-old for his leagues prospect that tore his way through to the major leagues with good contact rates and not much else. He was once over-rated, yes, but now seems under-rated. His injury hurt his good contact rates (90.7% in the zone down to 85.6% last year) and sapped his average power (.155 ISO down to .067 last year). As exhibits in his favor, I submit his minor league ISO (.167) as well as minor league walk and strikeout rates that were virtually identical to his rookie year numbers. Aviles may not have been as good as he looked his rookie year, but he wasn’t as bad as he was last year.
In defense of his defense, there’s no real evidence that it’s terrible, despite the fact that he’s played all over the diamond and his general manager had the (misguided) idea that he needed to acquire another shortstop. His UZR/150 was great in his rookie year (+31.6 UZR/150) and bad last year (-12.7 UZR/150), but Total Zone had him as a positive defender at shortstop in the minors. The Fan Scouting Report pegged him as better than Betancourt even in his poor ’09. Aviles scored better than his competitor/teammate in every category… but arm strength. And now he’s coming off of Tommy John surgery. On the other hand, we must consider the case of Cesar Izturis, who had TJ surgery in 2005 and last year the fans say he sported an arm that was a little better than Stephen Drew‘s and a little worse than Jason Bartlett’s. Izturis had surgery on 9/16/2005 and returned in mid-June 2006. Aviles had his surgery 9/07/2009.
The normal caveats apply. This is is the Royals, we have no idea what’s going on at second base with Alberto Callaspo and Chris Getz (a post for another time), and every recovering arm is different, but in the interest of being unequivocal: By mid-June Mike Aviles should be starting at shortstop for the Royals.
When we checked the position and identified the tiers for shortstops going into next year, some readers thought we should break the list down into AL- and NL-only lists in order to help deeper league managers understand potential late-draft steals at the position. Instead of bogging this post down with lists, though, let’s just comb through shortstops that didn’t quite make our top twelve. We’ll be sure to find some value deeper into the rankings.
Some of the players just missing the cut did so because they got a grade of “incomplete” last year. Those players have to be ranked above those that played the whole year and put together poor campaigns, right?
The most exciting non-top-twelve shortstop would have to be Alcides Escobar if only the Brewers are prepared to hand him the job in 2010. The early prognosis is positive. He played 15 of the Brewer’s last 19 games in 2009 and his capable offense (.304/.333/.368) and okay defense (-5 UZR/150) were good enough to be worth about a million dollars per month. His BABIP (.345) looks high, and next to his xBABIP (.296) shows that his batting average is a little risky. He does reach too much (30%), but at least he puts the ball on the ground (52% in 2009) where his plus speed (42 stolen bases against 10 caught stealings in AAA in 2009) can help him find some hits. Call him slightly riskier than Ryan Theriot, but if he comes at a cheaper price, he has a higher upside given his speed.
Mike Aviles also got an incomplete grade in 2009. After bursting onto the scene in 2008, there were some warning signs that Aviles may have some trouble repeating the performance. The biggest worry about his actual performance in 2009, though, were his plummeting contact rates and rising strikeout rates. Pretty much the best thing that Aviles had going for him was his ability to put wood on the ball in the zone (90.7% in 2008) and not strikeout (13.8% in 2008). Both of these attributes were consistent throughout his minor league career, but they both disappeared in 2009 (85.6% contact rate in the zone, 21.7% strikeout rate). He’ll need to recover his old bat-control ways in order to get his job back. The good news is that there’s only Yuniesky Betancourt and his .639 2009 OPS in his way. Given the fact that Aviles’ stats last year were the outliers when considered against his entire career, there’s at least a decent chance that Aviles puts up a good batting average with a little power somewhere on the infield in 2010.
Asdrubal Cabrera makes an interesting case study. His .362 BABIP last year threatens to put some risk into his best category (batting average) when seen alone. But look at that same number next to his lifetime BABIP (.342) and his xBABIP (.340) and you realize that he’s a speedy guy that may have figured out how to get the most of his hits. Perhaps he does it by favoring the ground game (48% groundballs), which does rob him of some power and leave him with little value if the batting average dives. If he can retain his speed (5.9 speed score in 2009, 5.1 career, 2.7 in his poor 2008 showing), Cabrera is a good mid-round bet to repeat the rest of his 2009 numbers.
Back over the National League for a late-round value, we find a newly minted starting shortstop (and another Cabrera) in San Diego’s Everth Cabrera. On the good side of his ledger is the fact that his organization does not have better options and he showed the ability to get on base (10%) and good speed (25 stolen bases in 33 attempts). There are some negatives. Despite some subjective reports of good defense, his UZR/150 was poor (-10.6). Also, his approach at the plate combines too many strikeouts (23.3%) with a paucity of line drives (14.8%) to produce a bit of a limp-noodle combined line (.255/.342/.361). In fantasy, however, all you have to know is that he has speed and can take a walk. Those stolen bases will give you good return on your investment.