Archive for Xavier Nady

NL Call-Ups: Five to Watch

Ah, September: that bizarre time of year where rosters expand, the disabled list disappears, benches swell, and all of a sudden managers have access to 16-man pitching staffs.

For the purposes of this article, we’ll only be looking at players who either have already been called up or who we can confirmed will be shortly, so if you’re wondering why Billy Hamilton & Oscar Taveras aren’t listed, that’s why.

Shelby Miller, RHP Cardinals

To merely glance at Miller’s 2012 stat line, you might think that the 2009 first-round draft pick had suffered through a disappointing year, one which would surely knock him off the top prospect lists. Sure, 160 strikeouts in 136 2/3 innings is impressive, but a 4.74 ERA (4.48 FIP) that was in large part due to a disturbingly high 1.58/9 home run rate – amid reports of maturity questions and declining velocity – can easily make you wonder, “well, what happened?”

It’s a little more complex than we have room to get into here, but the Miller of September 2012 bears little resemblance to the one who started the season, and that’s to be taken literally. A renewed commitment to conditioning and improved mechanics – Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has more on that here – allowed Miller to regain velocity and effectiveness, and the results were eye-catching. In 17 starts before the All-Star Break, Miller had a 6.17 ERA; in 10 starts after, it was just 2.88 along with a stellar 70/7 K/BB.

Miller is probably up only to soak in the atmosphere and perhaps get some time in out of the bullpen than he is to join the rotation, though it’s worth nothing that current #5 starter Joe Kelly pitched out of the bullpen last week and was hit hard in his most recent start. In keeper leagues, Miller is an obvious add.

Andrew Cashner, RHP Padres

Cashner started the season in the San Diego bullpen and made 27 appearances before being shifted into the rotation in June. He made just three starts before injured his lat and landing on the disabled list, and that’s the crux of the problem right there: when he left his third start after just two innings because of that lat, the main reaction was joy that he hadn’t blown out his arm. No one doubts Cashner’s talent, just his ability to stay healthy.

Cashner will get another shot when he starts on Friday against Arizona, and if he can stay upright he could get as many as four starts this month. The San Diego rotation is so tattered right now that when Andrew Werner started on Monday, the undrafted free agent who was in the independent leagues just two years ago was the 14th different starter to suit up for the Padres in 2012, so Cashner will get as long a look as possible with an eye towards 2013. The opportunity plus the talent – even if his fastball, which averaged 98.6 MPH this year, dips a little bit out of the bullpen – makes Cashner a worthwhile pickup in NL-only leagues and still intriguing in deeper mixed ones.

Tony Cingrani, LHP Reds

If you haven’t heard of Cingrani before, don’t feel too bad, because the 2011 draftee was a college senior, which is rarely where you’ll find the most touted prospects. Then you look at what he’s done so far in the minors this year – 172 strikeouts in 146 innings, even though his first ten starts came in the hitter-friendly California League – and suddenly you start to wonder why exactly you haven’t heard more about him. Cingrani’s future role is still up in the air, because despite being a starter in the pros, he was mainly a reliever in college for Rice, and isn’t likely to be considered for a start in September when he gets called up.

That might be for the best, since Cingrani brings a plus fastball while still working on his secondary pitches, and it’s not hard for Reds fans to drool at the thought of a Cincinnati bullpen that could add another power lefty to go with Aroldis Chapman & Sean Marshall. I consider him one of the more intriguing new names this September, though the lack of a clear role makes him interesting to NL-only leagues for now.

Xavier Nady, OF Giants

Who says a September callup has to be a highly-touted rookie? It’s been nearly 12 years since the 33-year-old Nady made his big-league debut, but it was only on September 1 that he made his first appearances with his hometown Giants after being cut by the Nationals in June. Of course, the last part of that sentence is a huge red flag, because Nady hasn’t really had a good season since 2008. Still, the Giants have a big, Melky-sized hole in the outfield to fill, and Gregor Blanco isn’t getting the job done. For opportunity alone, Nady has to be considered in NL-only leagues, but despite doubles in each of his first two games… he’s still Xavier Nady. I hope you’re not that desperate.

A.J. Ramos, RHP Marlins

Ramos, a 21st round pick out of Texas Tech in 2009, has been the closer for each of his three full seasons in the minor leagues, moving up a level at a time. While we should know by now that you can’t scout a minor league stat line, the numbers remain impressive, with 288 strikeouts in 211.1 career innings and only eight homers allowed. Better, his control appears to be improving, as a walk rate which was 4.9/9 in 2010 and 3.4 in 2011 is down to just 2.8 this year. Ramos will be 26 this month, which makes him old for his level and may explain some of the impressive stats. Still, the Miami bullpen seems to be constantly in a state of flux, and it’s not hard to see him getting a chance to show his stuff as a lost season slips further away for the Marlins.


Josh Bell and Steve Lombardozzi: Waiver Wire

When an organization decides to give a player an opportunity to play every day and take over a starting position, fantasy owners need to stand up and take notice.  Especially if the player qualifies at a position that is either thing to begin with or has been decimated by injuries through these first two months of the season.  Here are two prime examples that are likely sitting on your waiver wire just waiting to be claimed.

Josh Bell, ARI  |3B|  Ownership:  ESPN – 0.5%  Yahoo – 1.0%

Right on the heels of my last Kicking Rocks piece which clamored for Bell’s call-up, the Diamondbacks finally said enough to the Cody Ransom/Ryan Roberts platoon they had working the hot corner this season.  With little or no legitimate production at the position, it made perfect sense for the team to give Bell a shot, if not for anything but to at least just kick the tires and see what they had.  It’s not like things could get worse, right?

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Brad Hawpe Resurrects in Texas

The likelihood of the Texas Rangers signing Prince Fielder grew even slimmer on Friday when the team opted to take a cheaper route and sign Brad Hawpe to a minor league league deal.  Hawpe, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, also received an invite to spring training and, if he makes the cut, is expected to provide insurance for incumbent first baseman Mitch Moreland, who is currently recovering from off season wrist surgery.  Now the question remains…will Hawpe have any fantasy value in 2012?

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Take a Chance on Branyan’s Cheap Pop

On Friday, Diamondbacks manager Kirk Gibson announced that Russell Branyan has made the club’s Opening Day roster. Branyan’s ultimate role has yet to be determined — his own physical limitations, Juan Miranda‘s presence on the roster and Xavier Nady’s arm strength could affect his playing time — but if you’re looking for cheap pop, Branyan is your man.

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Cubs Nab Nady

Chicago Cubs signed OF Xavier Nady to a one-year, $3.3 million contract with $2.05 million in possible incentives.

Nady, 31, missed nearly the entire 2009 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his right elbow in mid-April. It was the second time he has had the procedure: Nady was Tommy John’d back when he was a Padres prospect in 2002. His pact with the Cubs won’t become official until he passes a physical later this week, and a source in the MLB.com article by Adam McCalvy notes that it’s “not a foregone conclusion” that Nady will get a clean bill of health.

In 2008, Nady posted a career-best 131 wRC+, meaning his offense was 31 percent better than average once league and park factors are factored in. However, Nady’s .205 Isolated Power was nearly 30 points about his career average, and his .337 BABIP was 20 points above his career norm.

Because of those factors, most projection systems have Nady regressing back near his career 112 wRC+. Here are his 2010 forecasts:

CHONE: 106 wRC+
Bill James: 112 wRC+
The Fans: 113 wRC+
Marcel (weighted three-year average, with regression factored in): 114 wRC+

An aggressive batter, Nady has a 5.8 percent career walk rate, with an outside swing percentage around 30-31 percent from 2006-2008 (25% MLB average). You might hear a lot about Xavier’s platoon split, with his hitting against lefties trumping his numbers against same-side pitching. But, as Mitchel G. Lichtman reminds us, the spread in platoon splits among big league hitters isn’t massive. How a batter performs overall gives us a better indication of how he’ll perform in the future against both lefties and righties:

How a batter does against RH pitchers informs us on how he will likely do against LH pitchers and vice versa. Why? Because there is not much of a spread in true platoon splits among ML baseball players yet there is a large spread in overall true hitting talent among ML baseball players. So if we see a large platoon split, like for a player like Howard, it is likely a fluke. If a player does really well versus RH pitchers but terrible against LH pitchers, both the “really well” and the “terrible” numbers are likely fluky and the “truth” is somewhere in between.

Nady’s career path bears this out. Baseball-Reference offers a stat called sOPS+, which compares a batter’s performance in a given split to the league average. One-hundred is average, while anything over 100 means the batter did better than average. Nady compiled a 123 sOPS+ vs. righties from 2006-2008, slightly better than his 120 SOPS+ against left-handers.

With the Cubs, Nady will be the fourth outfielder behind Alfonso Soriano, Marlon Byrd and Kosuke Fukudome. He’s not draft-worthy right now, but Nady could see a decent amount of playing time if Soriano’s aching knees continue to hinder him.


Position Battles: Yankees’ RF Job

Earlier today, we examined the battle of attrition being waged between center field candidates Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner. However, the Yankees have another battle for playing time brewing in right field between Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady. In the case of these two, judging by the 2008 numbers is probably not the best way to go about picking a winner.

Last offseason, Swisher was shipped from the A’s to the White Sox for a haul of young players: lefty Gio Gonzalez, right-hander Fautino De Los Santos and outfielder Ryan Sweeney. Despite sacrificing a good deal to acquire Swisher’s talents, the South Siders quickly soured on the Ohio State star after he posted a .219/.332/.410 line in 588 PA. In fact, Swisher was so far down the totem pole that he rode the bench down the stretch in favor of minor league vagabond Dewayne Wise. Earlier this offseason, the Bombers acquired Nick and minor league righty Kanekoa Texeira for Wilson Betemit and minor league righties Jeffrey Marquez and Jhonny Nunez.

Swisher’s 2008 line looks very disappointing. However, as Peter Bendix pointed out, very little changed in the switch-hitter’s offensive profile. Take a look at some of Swisher’s key indicators over the past three seasons…

2006: 14.9 BB%, 27.3 K%, .239 ISO, 19.3 LD%, .287 BABIP
2007: 15.6 BB%, 24.3 K%, .193 ISO, 17.5 LD%, .308 BABIP
2008: 14.2 BB%, 27.2 K%, .191 ISO, 20.9 LD%, .251 BABIP

In most every respect, Swisher’s 2008 season falls in line with his work over the 2006-2007 seasons, when he posted wOBA’s of .368 and .361, respectively. The only big difference in ’08, when his wOBA dipped to .325, was an extremely low BABIP. Despite a healthy line drive rate, Swish posted the 4th-lowest BABIP among all qualified hitters. That number will surely bounce back, and with it, so will Swisher’s overall line.

Nady’s 2008 season was sort of the inverse of Swisher’s. Acquired from the Pirates last July, the 30 year-old posted a career-best .374 wOBA after compiling marks of .346 in 2007 and .336 in 2006. X-Man has experienced an upward trend in line drive rate and has hit the ball with a little more authority, but his overall skill set remains about the same…

2006: 6 BB%, 18.2 K%, .173 ISO, 17 LD%, .311 BABIP
2007: 5.1 BB%, 23.4 K%, .197 ISO, 21.3 LD%, .323 BABIP
2008: 6.6 BB%, 18.6 K%, .205 ISO, 24.6 LD%, .337 BABIP

The odds of Nady being able to sustain a .300 average and that high of a line-drive rate are likely slim. If he reverts back to being a .270-280-ish hitter, his modest walk rate means that his OBP will probably park in the .320-.330 range. Nady is not a bad player, mind you, but his best role would appear to come as a lefty-masher off the bench: though he has admittedly been better over the past few seasons, Nady has a career .317 OBP versus righty pitching, compared to .383 versus southpaws. Perhaps Nady has turned a corner, but it’s more likely that he remains a high-power, low on-base player best used in favorable situations.

Most projection systems seem to agree that Swisher will be the better offensive player in ’09:

Marcel
Swisher: .344 wOBA
Nady: .348 wOBA

CHONE
Swisher: .360 wOBA
Nady: .342 wOBA

Bill James
Swisher: .358 wOBA
Nady: .353 wOBA

PECOTA
Swisher: .244/.353/.460
Nady: .270/.323/.444

Given Swisher’s poor luck on balls in play and Nady’s batting average spike, it seems possible that these two will switch places this year, with Swisher being labeled a “bounce-back player” and Nady having the “disappointment” tag bestowed upon him. Swisher’s on-base skills make him the better bet to produce in 2009.