Archive for Wilin Rosario

Last week, I reviewed my NFBC Draft Champions League results. I think some of my speculative saves (Joel Peralta early on; Adam Ottavino later on) could come to fruition, and I am pretty bullish on the depth of my rotation. I have a sundry of sleepers that could provide supplemental value: Daniel Norris, Randall Delgado, Jaime Garcia, Rafael Montero, Trevor Cahill and Robbie Erlin.

With that said, some of the feedback was helpful. I agree that based on my closing situation (among other things), I can’t possibly compete for the grand prize unless I get very lucky. I also do not have enough sure-thing starters to punt saves altogether to at least ensure a league win.

I don’t agree with a lack of depth on offense. I have CI/OF flexibility and a sundry of power (Justin Smoak, Travis Snider) and speed (Billy Burns, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor) on the bench. My second catching slot is in question, but Caleb Joseph could provide some surprise value until Matt Wieters returns. I like Andrew Susac, but I need to hope for a Buster Posey or Brandon Belt injury.

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Here is Travis d’Arnaud before he was sent down on June 8th: .180/.271/.273/.241 (BA/OBP/SLG/wOBA).

Here is TDA after his return: .269/.315/.481/.346. He also tore it up (again) at Triple-A.

Here is TDA from August fifth onward: .280/.335/.510/.369. Yan Gomes, FYI, went .278/.313/.472/.340 albeit for the season.

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Coming into this season, some fantasy baseball players felt that one of these backstops was an elite option and the other a strong rebound candidate. One disappointed, while the other didn’t. But in the last month or so, each has flipped the script, prompting questions about what lies ahead.

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Is Wilin Rosario the high-upside player he seemed to be a couple of years ago (and appeared to remain coming into this season)? Is he just on the wrong side of some bad platoon splits these days (and perhaps screwed for eternity)?

A reader asked questions like these in a comment on a recent podcast, and we discussed them in a subsequent pod. I think the reader did well to get at the heart of the matter. (I added the “screwed for eternity” part.)

The player has a lot potential value because he has a lot of power, even if it’s not reflected in his home run total. The batting average (.245) this season has been disappointing, naturally. Brett Talley’s survey of “The Best Fantasy Hitters of the Past Calendar Year” doesn’t do enough to console 2014 Rosario owners, especially those in redrafters or those who’ve experienced only these last nearly three months.

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Yesterday Dave Cameron posted his early picks for the AL All-Star Roster, which got me thinking about how I’d vote for the All-Stars if I bothered to do so. I’ve always been of the opinion that All-Stars should be selected based on who has performed the best since the last All-Star game. It’s usually just perennial All-Stars and guys who got off to a fast start in the first couple months of the season. But the guys who killed the back half of 2013 will get no love. So I took all the results from the past calendar year and ran them through the Zach Sanders z-score method for calculating fantasy value to see who has been the best in the last 365 days.

Let me point out a few things to preclude any trolls from doing so in the comments. Yes, I know that the past calendar year includes games that were pre-All-Star break in 2013. But because we don’t have a “post-All-Star break to present” split on the leaderboards, I’m using 365. Also, I’m unsure of the exact roster construction rules, if there even are any. I’m picking twenty hitters per league with at least two players at each infield position but no more than three at any infield position. Finally, I’m aware that fantasy value doesn’t necessarily mean All-Star. But this is Rotographs after all, and after I post the would-be rosters, I’m going to do a quick bit of fantasy discussion based on the results so that this post somewhat belongs under the RG banner. So without further ado, here is what the All-Star rosters would look like (hitters only) if you simply chose the teams based on fantasy value above replacement level over the last calendar year. Read the rest of this entry »

This is a subject I tackled last year, but the basic idea for this article is that people playing in leagues that use non-traditional roto categories may not be equipped with proper draft materials. Almost any set of rankings you can find online are compiled with the standard 5×5 roto categories in mind. Some sites may have rankings published specifically for leagues that replace batting average with OBP, but the vast majority assume standard categories. If you’re using a set of rankings from a site or magazine, you’re doing yourself a disservice unless those rankings were designed for OBP leagues.

I’ve compiled my own projections for 242 hitters to generate my own rankings, and I’ve generated rankings specifically for standard 5×5 leagues and leagues that have replaced batting average with OBP. I want to highlight the players who gain the most in OBP leagues and the players who are hurt the most when OBP replaces average. I base my rankings off a number Zach Sanders calls Fantasy Value Above Replacement (FVARz). Essentially I assign each player a value for each category and add them all up while adjusting for positional scarcity.

Below I’ve included two lists; one shows the players whose FVARz increases the most when OBP replaces average, and the other shows the players whose FVARz decreases the most. I’ve also included their ranking among hitters and auction values for both batting average and OBP leagues. Over on a site of which I’m the managing editor, TheFantasyFix.com, I’ve posted how the rankings and auction values change for all 242 hitters I have projections for when the switch is made to OBP. You can find that here. All values are based on 10-team leagues with 25-man rosters, 13 starting hitter slots and three bench slots. If you have questions about the methodology, the charts or anything else, hit me up in the comments. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week when I published the September Catcher Rankings, there were a few people who questioned the ranking of Colorado Rockies backstop Wilin Rosario, who was sitting fourth in the second tier. The first to question Rosario’s ranking was Cuck City who threw a little sarcasm my way and said, “Lets just ignore that Rosario outperforms tier1 in everything but AVG,” which was quickly followed up with another splash of the tongue-in-cheek from manjun who noted the catcher’s .290 batting average. And so when Check YoSelf asked, “…what’s the deal…?” I decided to actually check myself and look into Rosario a little deeper and see if these readers were right. Is Rosario the top catcher in fantasy baseball? Read the rest of this entry »

When it comes to the Colorado Rockies, the standard practice in fantasy baseball is to draft the hitters and avoid the pitchers. And it is as true today as it was back in 1993 when the organization played its very first game as an MLB franchise. We’ve already covered the team’s outfield and rotation, so it’s time to discuss the infield now. For the most part, you’ll want to give it a look when mapping out your draft strategy, however, it might not be the offensive powerhouse you were hoping for. Read the rest of this entry »

And six weeks later, a team was born…

That’s right. After just six short weeks and hundreds of emails, we finally finished the RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft — Slow Draft Style. The process was definitely cumbersome, to say the least, but we all made it through relatively unscathed. Our fearless leader and draft overseer, Eno Sarris, published the results five rounds at a time (the links to all can be found in this post) and now it’s time to reveal our teams. Well, I don’t know if everyone is going to do it, but here’s mine: Read the rest of this entry »

With Eno releasing the results of Rounds 6 through 10 of the RotoGraphs Early Mock Draft (you can find the first five rounds here), now is as good a time as any to take a look at some Average Draft Position (ADP) numbers for backstops and see where you can expect certain players to go in the first part of your draft. We’re not splitting the atom here. We’re just taking a look at a few early results — something we’re going to do from time to time here throughout the offseason. The results we’re looking at today come from an incredibly small sample size in comparison to the amount of draft data we’ll have even just a month from now, but it’s good to start keeping track now so that you can follow the upcoming trends and stay fully prepared for when you actually start drafting your teams this year. Read the rest of this entry »