Archive for tyler colvin

When it comes to the Colorado Rockies, the standard practice in fantasy baseball is to draft the hitters and avoid the pitchers. And it is as true today as it was back in 1993 when the organization played its very first game as an MLB franchise. We’ve already covered the team’s outfield and rotation, so it’s time to discuss the infield now. For the most part, you’ll want to give it a look when mapping out your draft strategy, however, it might not be the offensive powerhouse you were hoping for. Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s face it.  Sifting through the waiver wire at this point can be an exercise in futility.  I mean, if the guy is just sitting out there waiting to be snatched up by anyone desperate enough to have to employ his services for the final month of the season, how good can he really be? There is no “long term” anymore, so it’s time to turn that roster spot into a revolving door and start playing the hot bat.  They’re certainly not the be-all, end-all, but here are two that just might be of service for the home stretch. Read the rest of this entry »

Technically, the deal that sent Kosuke Fukudome to the Cleveland Indians for a pair of minor leaguers was consummated three days before the actual trade deadline, but close enough.  While AL-only league owners are still debating whether or not Fukudome and his .364 OBP are worth a claim, the better potential fantasy value remains in Chicago as Tyler Colvin gets another shot this season to prove his worth.  After a stellar rookie campaign in 2010, Colvin struggled mightily this year, but with a less crowded outfield and another chance to stake his claim on the Cubs’ right field job, Colvin has a prime opportunity to put his early season woes behind him and make himself indispensable to fantasy owners for these final two months. Read the rest of this entry »

Tyler Colvin entered spring training as a mid-range prospect looking to land a spot on the Chicago Cubs’ bench. But the 24-year-old has done far more than simply make the roster. Roaming all three outfield spots while spotting for Alfonso Soriano, Marlon Byrd and Kosuke Fukudome, Colvin’s bat has been +4.9 runs above average, and he has jacked 13 HR in 230 plate appearances. Is the Clemson product someone to target in keeper leagues, or his he playing over his head?

The Cubs selected Colvin with the 13th overall pick in the 2006 draft. At the time, the pick was considered a reach by Baseball America. Here’s what BA said about him at the time:

Colvin doesn’t have a tool that stands out, but as he has gained strength he has been able to repeat his smooth lefthanded swing more readily, and he’s added power to be average in that department. He’s an above-average runner and an efficient basestealer who plays a solid left field….some scouts estimated he would go in the first three rounds.

The 6-foot-3 lefty batter made his professional debut in the Short-Season Northwest League in ’06, batting .268/.313/.483 in 288 PA. In a sign of things to come, Colvin showed good power (.215 Isolated Power) and rough strike zone control (5.9 BB%, 20.8 K%). BA noted that he was young for a college draftee (turning 21 at the end of the season) and had projection in his lean 190 pound frame. They did caution that he needed to “tighten his strike zone and lay off high fastballs.”

In 2007, Colvin divided his time between the High-A Florida State League and the Double-A Southern League. In the FSL, he hit .306/.336/.514 in 262 PA. Colvin again hit the ball hard (.208 ISO) and didn’t whiff all that often (19.2 K%), but his plate discipline was a concern — he walked just 3.8% of the time. Upon the promotion to Double-A, the hacking heightened. Colvin drew ball four 1.9% and punched out 21.9%, putting up a .291/.313/.462 triple slash and a .170 ISO. The power was a plus, but the Francouer-sized strike zone scared scouts. “Advanced pitchers,” Baseball America predicted, “will exploit his anxiousness.”

Chicago sent Colvin back to the Smokies in 2008, and he made some modest gains in laying off junk pitches. In 602 PA, he slashed .256/.312/.424, walking 7.3%, striking out 18.7% and posting a .169 ISO. The main reason for the drop in his numbers was his BABIP — after having 34-35 percent of his balls in play fall for hits in ’07, Colvin had a .286 BABIP in ’08. BA commented that he sometimes cut himself off in his swing and “employ[ed] a dead-pull approach.” He seemed to have a timing issue at the dish, as his infield fly rate spiked — according to Minor League Splits, Colvin popped the ball up 14% in 2006 and 12.3% in 2007, but that figure rose to 20.3% during his second tour of the Southern League. A sore left elbow probably didn’t help matters any, either. Colvin underwent Tommy John surgery during the off-season.

Sent back to the FSL to begin the 2009 season, Colvin hit just .250/.326/.357 in 129 PA while testing out his surgically-repaired elbow. He walked 10.1%, with a 24.1 K% and a .107 ISO. Bumped up to Double-A in late May, he resumed his high-power, low patience act — he put up a .300/.334/.524 line with a .225 ISO, while working a walk just 4.8% and striking out 18.6%. Colvin’s pop up rate fell back to 13.7% between to the levels, with BA saying he “did a better job of covering the plate, as it no longer hurt when he torqued his elbow extending his arms to hit pitches on the outer half.” Colvin even got a brief glimpse of the majors in September when the Cubs suspended Milton Bradley.

Colvin’s work in the big leagues this year offers both promise and concern. On the positive side, he’s creaming pitchers — Colvin’s got a .252 ISO, and 24.1% of the fly balls that he has hit have left the yard. All of that thunder has helped him post a .262/.314/.514 line and a .357 wOBA.

However, he’s still greatly expanding his zone. Colvin has chased 39.2% of pitches thrown off the plate, one of the 20 highest rates among batters with 230+ PA and well above the 28.8% MLB average this season. He’s also making contact 70.3% of the time, compared to the 81% MLB average. The hacking and whiffing has led to a 6.5% walk rate and a 29.5% K rate.

Colvin has been an asset at the plate while hitting for gargantuan power, and he has shown the ability to hit for solid pop in the minors. But is it really reasonable to expect a guy with a career .188 ISO on the farm to continue posting a major league ISO on par with elite major league sluggers? While Colvin should continue to drive the ball often, we should expect a good deal of regression — ZiPS projects a .168 ISO for the rest of the season, and CHONE predicts a .186 ISO.

Long-term, Colvin should hit for above-average power. But if he’s going to hold significant value to the Cubs and fantasy owners, he’s going to resist the temptation to lunge at those off-the-plate offerings.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

Tyler Colvin: You have to give a break to this former (surprise) No. 1 draft pick by the Cubs. He had a pretty lousy approach at the plate, which resulted in walk rates of 6.0% and 3.0% early on in his career. After a lousy double-A season in 2008, the organization demoted him to high-A to begin the year. Still only 23, the outfielder changed his ways to a degree and increased his walk rate to 10.4%, although he hit just .250/.326/.357 with just one homer in 112 at-bats. Colvin was rewarded with a trip back to double-A, where he is hitting .319/.342/.652 with six homers in 69 at-bats. The bad news, though, is that he’s reverted to his old ways and has a walk rate of 4.2%. Toronto’s catching prospect J.P. Arencibia should be paying attention.

Kila Ka’aihue: Despite breaking out in a big way in 2008, Ka’aihue failed to impress the Royals’ management, which went out and acquired Mike Jacobs from the Marlins, who is now hitting .231/.314/.431 with 10 homers in 216 at-bats. And he’s doing it for $3.5 million. Ka’aihue, on the other hand, hit 38 homers last year in the minors and has a triple-A line of .273/.417/.498 with 10 homers in 227 at-bats and could be doing that in the Majors at the league minimum. The 25-year-old first baseman has also posted an ISO above .200 for the past three years. Right now, he’s a wasted resource. As of late, you don’t hear quite as much love expressed for Royals’ GM Dayton Moore as you did this past off-season.

Chris Carter (Oakland): Another powerful first baseman, Carter (not to be confused with the one in Boston) has made a lot of improvements to his game over last year – and that’s saying a lot considering he hit 39 homers with 104 walks. Although he’s not hitting for as much power, Carter has reduced his strikeout rate, while also increasing his batting average over last year when he hit .259 in high-A. This year in double-A, he has a line of .292/.396/.496 with 11 homers and 23 doubles in 284 at-bats. The 22-year-old prospect is probably less than a year away from helping out at the MLB level.

Michael Taylor: The Phillies organization has to be ecstatic with the development that Taylor has made over the past two seasons. A good, but not great, player at Stanford University, Taylor exploded in 2008 and hit .341/.408/.553 with 19 homers combined between two A-ball affiliates. In double-A in 2009, the 6’6” 250 lbs outfielder is hitting .340/.399/.579 with 13 homers in 247 at-bats, proving last year was no fluke. He’s even stolen 11 bases in 15 attempts. The 23 year old is a bit of an unusual prospect – not unlike San Diego’s Kyle Blanks.

Jarrod Parker: Another first-round prep pitching gem from the 2007 draft, had a nice debut season in 2008. His stuff has been even crisper in 2009 and he was promoted to double-A from high-A after just four starts (0.95 ERA, 12 hits in 19 IP). At double-A, the right-hander has been a little more hittable with 51 hits allowed in 47.1 innings of work. He also has a walk rate of 4.18 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.32 K/9. Only 20, Parker is holding his own at a level dominated by 23 year olds. With a fastball that can touch the upper 90s and improvements being made on the secondary pitches, Parker could develop into a No. 2 starter, if not a No. 1, which will be good news for the Arizona organization if ace Brandon Webb has to undergo shoulder surgery.

Marc Rzepczynski: A senior draft pick out of UC Riverside in 2007, this southpaw has improved with each minor league step he’s taken. Not only does Rzepczynski strike out his fair share of batters (almost 10.0 K/9 in his three-year career), the hurler also gets a mind-boggling number of groundball outs (career 64.6 GB%). His fastball is more like a bowling ball that can touch 92 mph and he also has a good slider and sinking (of course) changeup. With all the pitching injuries in Toronto, Rzepczynski could be up before the end of the season. His ultimate ceiling is probably that of a No. 3 starter.

Travis Wood: Wood is a perfect example of why you never give up on a good arm. The left-hander is a former second-round pick out of high school from 2005. He’s battled injuries and inconsistencies. Last year in 17 double-A starts, Wood posted a 7.09 ERA and allowed 91 hits and 48 walks in just 80 innings. This year, though, things have clicked again and he’s leading the minors in ERA with a 1.27 mark (2.82 FIP) in 15 starts. He’s allowed just 62 hits in 92 innings, along with a walk rate of 3.33 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.63 K/9. Only 22, Wood has allowed just one homer this year.

Kasey Kiker: The club’s first-round selection out of high school in the 2006 draft, Kiker sometimes gets lost in the shuffle with all the other great prospects in the Rangers’ system. The left-hander is having another solid year, this time in double-A, with a 3.25 ERA (4.21 FIP) and 64 hits allowed in 72 innings. He also has a walk rate of 4.63 BB/9 and 8.25 K/9. Only 5’11” 185 lbs, Kiker could eventually move to the bullpen, where his fastball has hit 95-97 mph in shorter stints.