Archive for Twins

It’s easy to dismiss Randy Dobnak, to turn him into a punchline. When 99.99% of baseball fans were introduced to Dobby last fall, they learned two things:

1. When he wasn’t pitching, he worked part-time as a ride-share driver to help pay the bills (an altogether separate indictment of MLB and its broad moral shortcomings), and
2. He has a handlebar mustache.

That’s just enough, but also plenty, to undercut a grown man’s legitimacy. It’s this very illegitimizing, I hypothesize, that has allowed Dobnak to fly under fantasy radars, even as he demonstrates nonzero aptitude on the mound.

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The hot stove season is a time of discovery. In responding to the news of trades and signings, and in doing research to prepare our annual preseason rankings, we learn things that we missed during the regular season.

After the Rays traded Tommy Pham to the Padres earlier this month, I wrote about how Pham mysteriously started hitting grounders with less authority one-third of the way into the season. (Also, thank you to commenters randplaty and zwibi, who pointed out that Pham was playing through hand and elbow injuries over several weeks late in the season.) Of 130 hitters who saw at least 1,500 pitches and hit at least 100 ground balls in both 2018 and 2019, Pham experienced the sixth-largest year-to-year decline in average exit velocity on grounders (EV GB), and that was even with his decline not beginning until two months into the season.
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Although Brad Hand returned to Cleveland’s bullpen, Carlos Carrasco recorded his first save of the season working 1.1 scoreless innings while walking one. Carrasco’s story this year cannot be ignored and he’s turned in two straight scoreless outings as a reliever. His ability to work multiple innings could translate to more save chances down the stretch. Perhaps Terry Francona wishes to ease Hand back into high leverage in order to ensure success. Following heavy usage in the first half, Hand struggled after the All-Star break with a 6.00 ERA in 18 innings from July 15th on, including four home runs in the 19 game stretch. Hand owners will need to monitor his usage and effectiveness once he returns to the mound but remain hopeful since he did record five consecutive saves before leaving the team for an MRI. He last pitched on September eighth. All reports suggest Hand’s bullpen sessions went well leading up to last night. Stay tuned. Read the rest of this entry »

With the season winding down, the high leverage moments never cease. Since bullpens could be a determining factor in many races, it’s going to be intriguing to see how teams monitor usage to keep pitchers fresh. One preemptive strike occurred in Los Angeles with the Dodgers announcing Kenta Maeda will transition to the bullpen in preparation for the playoffs. While part of this can be attributed to his 2.08 ERA in 17.1 innings as a reliever in the playoffs, it’s also a move to depress his pay within his contract. Last night, Maeda worked the last four innings for his first save giving up four hits, three earned runs and striking out five against the Rockies. His owners will need to adjust how to deploy him going forward, but there’s a chance to mine a couple of saves during the Dodgers last 22 games.

For the second straight outing, and second time this season, Roberto Osuna allowed a home run. Yesterday’s home run by Christian Yelich off of Osuna resulted in his first blown save since August 11th and sixth of the season. There’s no need to panic since Osuna’s entrenched as Houston’s closer, but he’s produced a 5.60 ERA, 4.17 xFIP and 1.19 WHIP over 17.2 innings since the All-Star break while allowing five home runs. Following a go ahead home run by George Springer off of Junior Guerra, Josh James recorded the first save of his major league career navigating around two walks with three strikeouts.

As alluded to above, monitoring pitcher usage will be tantamount to success down the stretch. Taylor Rogers notched his 22nd save with a clean ninth inning striking out one. He’s converted his last six save chances for Minnesota anchoring a bullpen which ranks second in the majors in ERA (3.41) since July 24th. However, Rogers owns a 7.82 ERA when working in consecutive games with two losses and two saves in them this year. When he receives a day of rest in between outings, Rogers ERA drops to a minuscule 0.96 with two wins and 20 saves spanning 46.2 innings. Food for thought.

On the other hand, Carlos Martinez thrives this year working in back-to-back outings. He locked down his 17th save of the year logging retiring the last four hitters in a row, two via strikeout. Martinez leads the National League with 14 saves in the second half and pitched in consecutive games 13 times this year closing out all nine save chances in them. He’s also generating the highest ground ball rate (60.8 percent) of his career. Andrew Miller gets his 23rd hold walking one and striking out one in one-third of an inning. Miller’s only allowed two hits against the last 26 batters he’s faced.

Remember when the Atlanta bullpen seemed to struggle despite all of the deadline acquisitions? Mark Melancon secured his seventh straight save on Monday striking out the side on 11 pitches against Toronto. Melancon’s converted all eight of his save chances with the Braves and only given up one earned run his last eight outings spanning 7.1 innings. Shane Greene turned in his 11th straight scoreless appearance with a clean eighth inning and a strikeout. He’s yielded four hits and one walk with 11 strikeouts his last 11 innings.

Quick Hits: Noting the Rays moved up their game with Baltimore to a doubleheader today. Yesterday, Colin Poche recorded his fourth win allowing a hit in a scoreless 10th inning. Emilio Pagan tossed a clean ninth inning striking out one and owns a 23:0 K:BB rate over his last 14 games dating back to July 30th…In an eventual loss, Mychal Givens preserved a tied game logging a clean outing with two strikeouts. He’s surged of late with a win and two saves with a 2.45 ERA, 0.64 WHIP and 15 strikeouts versus one walk his last 11 appearances. Hunter Harvey stranded a runner striking out the only hitter he faced and recorded 10 of his 16 outs via strikeout since his promotion…David Phelps nabs his second win walking one and striking out one on Monday…

Not so long ago, when it came to pull-heavy power hitters, there was no equal to Brian Dozier. Based on developments currently unfolding this season, the genre could explode in 2020.

Back in 2016, Dozier was unique among major league hitters in his ability to pull flyballs at an extremely high rate consistently. Among hitters who launched at least 100 flies in both 2015 and 2016, Dozier was the only batter to exceed a 35 percent pull rate on flyballs in both seasons. He essentially lapped the field, surpassing a 40 percent rate in both campaigns. Then Dozier was the only hitter to pull off the feat in both 2016 and 2017.
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Barreling towards the last six weeks of the season, bullpens will continue to play a pivotal role in not only how the pennant races take shape, but which teams will qualify for the playoffs. Due to a combination of injuries and performance, Cubs relievers suffered a walk-off for the second straight game as noted by their beat writer: Read the rest of this entry »

When the Braves acquired Shane Greene and Chris Martin ahead of Wednesday’s trade deadline, there didn’t seem to be much mystery as to how they would be used. Given Luke Jackson’s struggles in closing out games for the Braves and Greene’s success as the Tigers’ closer, it would have been an upset for the latter reliever to be used as anything but a closer. It also was a natural fit for Martin, who racked up 12 holds (and four saves) with the Rangers, to set Greene up. On Thursday, Brian Snitker confirmed that Greene will, in fact, be his closer, and Martin will be his primary setup reliever.

What was less clear was how Snitker might use Mark Melancon, who was just acquired from the Giants. While Melancon was typically the fifth option in a deep Giants bullpen, the Braves’ manager indicated that he could pitch the seventh inning in addition to other situations. This suggests that Jackson won’t see much action in hold situations, much less as a fill-in closer when Greene is unavailable. During his recent three-week slump, Jackson allowed nine runs on 11 hits (including three homers) and four walks over six innings. Still, there were some positives, such as a 15.0 percent SwStr% and a 60.0 percent ground ball rate, which were right in line with his season-to-date numbers. Despite these impressive skill indicators, there is not much point in rostering Jackson, even in holds leagues.
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Several normally-reliable closers blew saves on Tuesday night. Neither Ken Giles nor Will Smith got saves, but the former picked up a win against the Indians, and the latter pitched a pair of scoreless innings versus the Cubs. Given how the night went for other top closers, Giles’ and Smith’s fantasy owners should feel fortunate.

The slugfest between the Yankees and the Twins was rough on starters and relievers alike, and both team’s closers blew a chance at a save. Initially, it looked as if Taylor Rogers was going to put an end to the scoring — and the game. With just six pitches, he set down Gleyber Torres and Giovanny Urshela, and then he got a 1-2 count on Mike Tauchman. Rogers missed on his next three pitches, putting Tauchman on first base. His first pitch to Aaron Hicks was right down the middle, and the Yankees’ center fielder deposited it in the Yankees’ bullpen, turning an 11-10 deficit into a 12-11 lead.
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Thursday’s schedule did not produce many notable performances from closers, but it did produce one from a possible future closer. Nathan Eovaldi made his first appearance for Triple-A Pawtucket, and he pitched a scoreless inning. He struck out the side but also issued a walk.

This would appear to be the only rehab appearance Eovaldi is going to make. He has already joined the Red Sox, who are in Baltimore for their weekend series, and he could be activated as soon as Saturday. While earlier reports had suggested that Eovaldi was going to be used as the Red Sox’s closer, Alex Cora has only specified that he plans to use the converted starter in high-leverage situations. Eovaldi’s imminent activation might not mean it’s the end of Brandon Workman’s recent run as the team’s primary closer. Matt Barnes and Heath Hembree, who have combined for six saves, may still figure into saves situations as well.
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Unfortunately, the second half picked up where the tumultuous first half ended in terms of performances in high leverage. Both Josh Hader and Will Smith suffered blown saves in outings against their respective teams last night. Hader entered in the eighth inning serving up a lead-off home run to Tyler Austin. He settled in striking out Brandon Belt, getting Buster Posey to ground out and then a foul tip strikeout of Evan Longoria. Read the rest of this entry »