Archive for Tommy Hunter

It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

Zach Britton’s Sinker… Eh? Eh???

In fact, according to BP’s PITCHf/x Leaderboard, five of eight Baltimore Relievers had above average Sinkers last year: Zach Britton (#1 overall obviously), Darren O’Day (#17), Wesley Wright (#24), Tommy Hunter (#32) and T.J. McFarland (#39). Five of the top 40 (out of 136) relievers who used a classified Sinker over 100 times were Baltimore Orioles.

Available out of the bullpen:

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While the Orioles are making headlines with signings of Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz, it’s time to take a look at another aspect of the team in which they’ve made some changes. Gone is Jim Johnson, a two-time 50-save closer for the O’s and while they were all set to bring in free agent Grant Balfour, they were unhappy with the results of his physical and opted to fill the vacancy in-house. So let’s take a look at what Baltimore’s bullpen is looking like right now. Read the rest of this entry »

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 16. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

R.A. Dickey – The 35-year-old knuckleball pitcher has made 11 starts in the majors this year and has 9 Quality Starts. His only bad outing of the year (5 IP, 5 ER) came in Puerto Rico in a stadium which is not really up to major league standards. Dickey throws strikes, keeps the ball in the park and gets his share of ground balls. Even though he has two road starts this week, make sure he is in your lineup.

Tommy Hunter – Over the last two years (27 starts) Hunter is 15-6 with a 3.58 ERA, including a perfect 6-0 record this season with a 2.39 ERA. But Hunter’s xFIP is over two runs higher at 4.79, the exact same number it was in 2009. The good fortune comes from an 84.9 LOB%. But the real secret cannot be found in Hunter’s pitching record. Instead it comes from the Rangers’ offense, which gives him an average of 7.25 runs per game. It may be luck, but that is a very nice combination. Ride the streak and make sure Hunter is active for his two starts.

Jair Jurrjens – In three starts since being activated from the DL, Jurrjens is 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA. The overall numbers are still ugly but Jurrjens is getting his walks under control. Before going on the DL, he had a 4.13 BB/9. Since coming back he has allowed 7 BB in 17.2 IP. Last year he had a 3.14 BB/9. Neither the Padres nor Marlins are teams that draw a bunch of walks, with the Padres being essentially average while the Marlins rank 14th in the NL in bases on balls. Additionally, both teams are below average in runs scored. Jurrjens should be active this week.

Joel Pineiro – Three weeks ago Pinero was mentioned as a start option and he came through with flying colors. But this week fantasy owners should go the other way with the Angels lefty. Pineiro has a huge home/road split in 2010, with a 7-2 mark, a 2.37 ERA and a 1.105 WHIP at home but a 6.39 ERA and a 1.520 WHIP. This week he has road starts in New York and Texas. Put Pineiro on the bench this week.

Wandy Rodriguez – After 14 starts, Rodriguez had a 6.09 ERA and looked like a candidate to be dropped from the rotation. But in his last four outings, each a Quality Start, Rodriguez resembled the pitcher who appeared ready to become one of the top hurlers in the NL in the middle of 2009. Last year he had a 3.06 K/BB ratio. This year it is 1.93 in 101.1 IP. But over his last four starts, Rodriguez has 25 Ks and 6 BBs. This is the Rodriguez owners expected entering the year, so make sure to have him active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 16 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Lincecum, Kershaw, Carpenter, Cueto, Jimenez, Hughes, Pelfrey, Silva, Matsuzaka, Leake, Baker, Bumgarner, Slowey, A. Sanchez, Cecil, Sheets, Kennedy, Davis, Moyer, Bonderman, Hudson, Fister, LeBlanc, Feldman, Bush, Francis, Kendrick, Tillman, Arrieta, McDonald, Galarraga, Robertson, Lincoln, Enright, Davies, Hawksworth, Karstens, Laffey, Litsch, Atilano, Martin, Pauley, Lerew.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. Since there was no two-start pitcher column for the All-Star break, there will be two week’s worth of results here.

Week 13
Braden – Advised to sit. Did not pitch – placed on DL
Hammel – Advised to start. W, 3.46 ERA, 12 Ks, 1.231 WHIP (2 starts)
Lilly – Advised to start W, 6.59 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.317 WHIP (2)
Morrow – Advised to sit. 6.00 ERA, 15 Ks, 1.583 WHIP
Pineiro – Advised to start. 2 W, 2.08 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.539 WHIP (2)

Week 14
Ely – Advised to start. 19.80 ERA, 4 Ks, 3.600 WHIP (2)
Floyd – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.23 ERA, 8 Ks, 0.955 WHIP (2)
Lowe – Advised to sit. 2.92 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.378 WHIP (2)
W. Rodriguez – Advised to start. W, 2.77 ERA, 16 Ks, 0.923 WHIP
Wilson – Advised to start. W, 3.38 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.125 WHIP (2)

Fantasy owners are always scouring the waiver wire looking for pitchers for the back of their staff. One pitcher gaining a lot of buzz for his performance so far is Rangers RHP Tommy Hunter. In six starts with Texas this season, Hunter is 3-1 with a 2.00 ERA. He has gone at least five innings in each start this year and has yet to allow more than three runs in a game.

Hunter is not overpowering; he tops out in the low 90s with his fastball and averages 89.1 with his heater. But he still manages to get strikeouts with the pitch – he got two Ks on fastballs in his last outing – because of his varied repertoire. Hunter also has a curve ball and a change-up. And depending on which source you prefer, he also throws either a slider or a cutter. FanGraphs does not show him throwing a slider this year but has him throwing a cutter nearly 24 percent of the time. Dan Brooks’ wonderful PitchFX site shows Hunter striking out three in his last outing versus Detroit with a slider and throwing 26 of them overall, with no cutters.

It all seems very encouraging for Hunter but from a fantasy perspective owners should not be in a rush to go out and pick him up. He is thriving now thanks to the 1-2 combo of a low BABIP (.251) and a high strand rate (90%). Hunter checks in with a 1.75 K/BB ratio (which would rank in the lower third of MLB pitchers if he had enough innings to qualify) and his HR/FB rate of 6.5 percent is below average.

When we see numbers like that, the most likely explanation is an unsustainable hot start. Hunter’s FIP is 3.97 and the low HR rate indicates his xFIP would be even worse. We know with a large enough sample size that regression will push Hunter’s numbers worse in these categories. We just do not know when it will actually happen. With just two months left in the season, it is even possible that regression will not hit until 2010.

Hunter would not be the worst option for fantasy owners to pick up from the waiver wire. But at the same time one should acquire him with the knowledge that he is much more likely to post an ERA twice as high than the one he has recorded so far this season.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 17

Jon Garland – Earlier in the year it was pretty easy with Garland. You simply benched him for his home starts and inserted him back in the lineup for his road outings. But Garland in his last five starts has a 2.73 ERA and two of those games have been at home and both were Quality Starts. A home start versus Philadelphia could be dicey, but that should be made up for in a road start in pitcher-friendly Citi Field against the punchless Mets.

Tommy Hunter – After getting pounded in his major league debut last season, Hunter has had an impressive five outings for the Rangers in 2009. And yes, he has unquestionably been lucky so far, with a .256 BABIP and an 87 percent strand rate. But I like the 23-year old to maintain his good fortune for at least one more week with home starts against the Tigers and Mariners.

Jason Marquis – Usually I avoid recommending starting the top pitchers. But since not everyone has gotten the memo on Marquis, I figured I would mention him. Can anyone else remember a season where the NL leader in wins after the All-Star break might be available on the waiver wire in your league? Marquis is a free agent in 51.5 percent of ESPN leagues. He does have a blister problem but is scheduled this week for road starts at the Mets and at the Reds.

Joe Saunders – Through the first 15 games of the season, Saunders was living large and was cruising along with an 8-4 record and 3.66 ERA despite rotten peripherals, continuing his path from 2008. But in his last five outings Saunders has a 9.82 ERA and only some fine work by Angels hitters have kept his record at 0-2. Maybe it is a bad stretch or maybe it is regression finally catching up to him, but either way it is hard to put him in the lineup this week for two starts.

Randy Wolf – After undergoing a rough patch in June, Wolf has rebounded with five straight Quality Starts with 25 Ks in 31.2 innings in that stretch. His peripherals still suggest a pitcher benefiting from luck, but owners should role the dice with Wolf this week. He has two road starts, but has been a better pitcher away from Chavez Ravine. Wolf has a 4-2 record with a 2.90 ERA in road games this year, a full run lower than his home ERA.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 17 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lincecum, Wainwright, F. Hernandez, Hamels, Burnett, Beckett, Carpenter, Oswalt, Billingsley, Zambrano, Weaver, Jurrjens, W. Rodriguez, Nolasco, Shields, Harden, Danks, Washburn, Romero, Arroyo, Pelfrey, Buchholz, Galarraga, Maholm, Zito, Correia, Bannister, Pavano, Moyer, O. Perez, Cahill, Perkins, Padilla, Suppan, H. Bailey, Mazzaro, Stammen, Geer, Hill, Burns, Berken, Chen.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Atlanta Braves rookie Jordan Schafer got the 2009 MLB season going with a bang for his fellow rookies last night with a home run in his first Major League at-bat. One can only hope that the fireworks is a sign of good things to come from the 2009 rookie class.

Texas Rangers prospect Tommy Hunter has a good chance to see significant time in Arlington this season, even though he will begin 2009 in the minors, likely at Triple-A Oklahoma. The right-hander rocketed through the minors in 2008 after being selected in the supplemental first round of the 2007 amateur draft out of the University of Alabama.

The 22-year-old hurler threw just 17.2 innings in his pro debut in 2007 but then tossed more than 160 innings at three minor league levels in 2008. He added an additional 11 innings at the MLB level, where he was over-matched and allowed 23 hits (18.8 H/9) and 20 earned runs. In fact, Hunter was hittable at every level that he pitched, allowing 170 hits in 163.2 minor-league innings.

He did, though, show very good command with a 1.84 BB/9 rate. His strikeout rate was not as promising, as it was above 7.00 K/9 at High-A ball and in the Majors, but it was below 5.00 K/9 in Double-A and Triple-A. In total, his minor league strikeout rate was just 5.72 K/9, which is below average for a potential No. 3 starter. With experience, Hunter has room to improve his ‘K’ rate, as his repertoire includes an 89-94 mph fastball, plus curveball, slider and change-up.

Hunter will probably benefit the most if he can remain in Triple-A until at least June or July. Knowing the state of the Rangers’ pitching, though, he could very well be up by the end of April. The big league rotation currently includes Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Kris Benson, Brandon McCarthy, and Matt Harrison. If Hunter does appear in the Majors for a significant amount of time in 2009 then he could provide innings and maybe some wins (He also won’t hurt you in the walks department), but there will probably be a fair number of hits allowed, and possibly a low number of strikeouts. Hunter does not have the ceiling of Neftali Feliz or Derek Holland, but he’s probably more MLB ready and of more value to fantasy baseball managers in 2009.