Archive for Tom Gorzelanny

Earlier today, in Part I of the series, I published a chart of 38 pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break and their 2nd half ERAs. Here I want to go into more detail rather than just giving a raw score for the two metrics.

In rating the two systems, I considered the metrics to recommend keeping a pitcher if at the All-Star break they were at 3.50 or lower, to listen to a trade if they were between 3.51 and 4.00, to actively look to sell the player if they were between 4.01 and 4.50 and to either sell or cut a pitcher if they were above 4.51.

Of course, we also have to consider what the pitcher’s actual ERA was at the break, too. A pitcher could still be a sell candidate if one of the metrics was significantly higher than his ERA. For these extreme cases, I considered a difference between 50-75 points to be a “listen” candidate, while above 75 to be a “sell high” guy.

Felipe Paulino – pitched in just 5.2 innings after the break. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to a lack of playing time.

Francisco Liriano – His second half ERA was better than his first half mark, but both metrics thought he was outstanding before the All-Star break. This is a clear win for xFIP.

Anibal Sanchez – His 2nd half ERA (3.44) was a near-perfect match for his first half FIP (3.46).

Clay Buchholz – Both systems thought Buchholz was not nearly as good as he was in the first half. FIP had his as a keep while xFIP said he was an active sell. Since Buchholz did even better in the second half of the season than the first, this was a clear victory for FIP.

Josh Johnson – Both systems had Johnson as a keeper, but xFIP did a better job predicting his 3.50 post All-Star break mark.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – After allowing 4 HR in 71 IP in the first half, Matsuzaka served up 9 HR in 82.2 IP after the break. Big win for xFIP.

Johan Santana – His 3.00 ERA in the second half almost identical to his first half mark of 2.98. xFIP had Santana as a cut, so an easy win for FIP.

Jason Vargas – Eight of his 14 starts after the break came on the road and he allowed eight of his 10 second half HR away from Safeco. Big win for xFIP.

Justin Verlander – In the last three years, Verlander has posted an ERA over 5.50 in the month of April. He was terrific from May 1st through the end of the season again in 2010. Easy win for FIP.

Barry Zito – A lousy second half of the season made Zito a spectator for the Giants in the post-season. xFIP did an outstanding job predicting Zito’s collapse.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Just like with Zito, xFIP was just about perfect predicting Jimenez in the second half.

Tom Gorzelanny – Both systems saw Gorzelanny as a pretty good pitcher, but xFIP came closer to his second-half collapse.

John Danks – Again, the crystal ball for xFIP was right on target for Danks.

Tommy Hanson – In both seasons in the majors, Hanson has outperformed his xFIP. He turned it up a notch in the second half of 2010, thanks as much to his .233 BABIP as his 7 HR in 100.1 IP.

Matt Cain – Another pitcher with a history of outperforming his peripherals, Cain beat his FIP by nearly a run and his xFIP by nearly two runs in the second half of 2010.

Clayton Kershaw – Just as good in the second half of the season as he was in the first.

Cliff Lee – Many people wanted to eliminate Lee from this study last year, as he went from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park. But Lee outpitched his xFIP after the break in 2009. No such luck for Lee this year while following a similar story line of moving to a tougher park for pitchers.

C.J. Wilson – Like Kershaw, he was remarkable consistent between halves and ended up as a win for FIP.

Livan Hernandez – Those of us who kept predicting the bottom to fall out for Hernandez in 2010 are still waiting. Meanwhile, his second half ERA of 4.02 was a perfect match for his first half FIP.

Doug Fister – I imagine even the staunchest FIP supporters were shopping Fister every chance they could.

Fausto Carmona – After back-to-back seasons with a BB/9 over 5.00, Carmona allowed just 29 BB in 94.0 IP after the break last year. That had more to do with it than HR rate (10 HR in 94 IP) for why FIP was a clear winner.

Gavin Floyd – Fantasy owners did not know start from start what to expect from Floyd, but xFIP did a nice job of predicting his second half ERA.

Mark Buehrle – Like Wilson and Kershaw, Buehrle was a model of consistency with his ERA between halves this year. However, I worry about his K/9 rate and would be shocked if he was on any of my teams next year.

Brandon Morrow – With the Blue Jays out of the race, they decided to shut down a healthy Morrow after his first September start, which limited him to 46.1 IP after the break. A polar opposite to Buehrle, Morrow posted a 10.95 K/9, up from 8.14 a season ago.

Johnny Cueto – Cueto’s second half ERA was in the range predicted by his first half FIP and xFIP. But it was just 0.05 away from his FIP.

John Lackey – His second half ERA of 3.97 was a nice match for his 3.89 career mark but I doubt that makes too many Red Sox fans happy about his season and the team’s remaining obligation to him.

Kevin Correia – The first player on our list to have a big discrepancy between his FIP and xFIP due to a high HR rate, Correia did not show much regression in the second half of the year. Those who thought he would rebound, especially considering his home park, were disappointed. Correia allowed 13 HR in 82.1 IP in Petco this year.

Cole Hamels – Just like in 2009, one pitcher from the high HR rate side completely turned things around to become one of the best pitchers in the second half. Hopefully, Hamels has more luck in 2011 than 2009’s entry did. Rich Harden had a 5.58 ERA in 20 games with the Rangers this year after having a tremendous post-break performance (2.55 ERA) in 2009.

Nick Blackburn – Both systems would have advised cutting Blackburn, who responded with a 3.94 ERA in the second half, as he showed a big across-the-board improvement, including a microscopic 1.83 BB/9.

Kevin Millwood – Most of the players with a high HR/FB rate come back as not worth the risk by both systems. But xFIP said Millwood was significantly better than he showed in the first half and did an excellent job projecting his post-break ERA.

Jeff Karstens – An sore shoulder led to just one appearance in September. I regret the pain suffered by Mr. Karstens but it’s probably just as well that it played out that way.

Zach Duke – Hard to believe he made the All-Star team in 2009. Since then he is 11-23 with a 5.52 ERA.

James Shields – Both systems predicted a big bounce-back performance in the second half by Shields but that never materialized. He continued to give up HR by the basket, saw his K/BB ratio drop by over a full point and saw his BABIP increase to .362 after the break.

Brian Bannister – Limited to 25.2 IP in the second half due to rotator cuff tendinitis.

Randy Wolf – Both systems saw Wolf as waiver wire fodder but he had a 2.67 ERA in his final 13 starts, which was right after I placed him on waivers in a dynasty league.

Doug Davis – Elbow tendinitis kept Davis from pitching after the All-Star break.

Ricky Nolasco – FIP was nearly perfect with its Nolasco forecast, a marked departure in recent history, as he has generally underperformed his peripherals the past two seasons. Of course, Nolasco pitched just 47 innings after the break due to knee surgery.

Ian Kennedy – Neither system thought much of Kennedy going into the break but xFIP had a brighter outlook. Meanwhile, Kennedy put it altogether after the All-Star game, with Quality Starts in seven of his last nine outings. He finally started pitching well in his home park. In his last three games in Chase Field, Kennedy allowed 4 ER (0 HR) in 19 IP.

*****

When I started this comparison in 2009, my belief was that you would be just as well off using either system. After last year, there was a definite raw advantage for xFIP but now with two years worth of data, the two systems are basically even. Overall, there have been 72 pitchers who’ve had a 0.50 or greater difference between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break. Here’s how they did if you used their first half FIP or xFIP to project their second half ERA:

xFIP – 37
FIP – 34
Push – 1

Both systems have strengths and weaknesses. Generally speaking, xFIP does a better job with non-elite pitchers with low HR rates while FIP does a better job with elite hurlers. So, if a Tom Gorzelanny is cruising along with a sub-7.0 HR/FB rate, it appears you should look to sell high. But if it’s Justin Verlander, perhaps you should hold onto him.

We know that over the long haul that xFIP is the better metric to use for most pitchers. The issue here is that for one season (or one partial season) there may not be enough time for regression to fully kick in. Let’s look at Tim Lincecum. In the first half of 2009, he had a 3.9 HR/FB rate. In the second half of the season he had a 7.5 HR/9. This year he had a 9.9 HR/FB ratio. He has been regressing towards a normal HR/FB rate since the first half of 2009. But it did not all come in the same season.

Readers have suggested using first half ERA, or a mid-point between first half FIP and xFIP or an average of all three to see which one best predicted second half ERA. I think these are worthwhile suggestions and perhaps ones that we can use in the future (going back retroactively, too) as our sample size increases. We can also eliminate pitchers who did not pitch substantial innings and look for other trends and anomalies as our population gets bigger.

This started with a claim by my friend and colleague Derek Carty that FIP was basically useless for fantasy purposes with other metrics like xFIP available. Right now it appears FIP is making a case not to be tossed into the trash can by fantasy players.

In 2009, I did a column at the All-Star break to see if FIP or xFIP would be more helpful for fantasy players in making trades. This year I did the same thing. You can see the results below

Should Fantasy Owners Use FIP?
FIP Challenge Results Part I
FIP Challenge Results Part II
FIP Challenge 2010

Here is the table from the 2010 article, along with an additional column, the pitcher’s ERA in the second half of the season.

There are 38 pitchers in the above chart. On a raw scale, the two systems were almost identical, with the FIP metric did a better job of predicting 2nd half ERA in 20 cases while xFIP did better 17 times. Furthermore, FIP did a better job of forecasting 14 of the 26 players with low HR/FB rates and both systems got five of the 11 pitchers (Davis being a wash) with high HR/FB rates.

In 2009, xFIP did better on a raw scale, as it did a better job predicting 20 of the 34 pitchers in the sample.

Similar to 2009, most of the pitchers fell outside the range predicted by FIP and xFIP. For example, Liriano’s FIP was 2.18 while his xFIP was 2.97. But he had a 3.31 second half ERA. Only seven of the 37 players listed above had a second half ERA between their first half FIP and xFIP. The two systems were close on this, too, with FIP being better on four of these seven pitchers. In 2009, 28 of the 34 pitchers had second half ERAs outside the range of their first half FIP and xFIP numbers.

Later today I will post a breakdown of all 38 pitchers in this survey.

Scoop these two players up if they’re available–after you give Mom a hug, that is…

Travis Snider, Blue Jays (Owned in 7% of Yahoo leagues)

A 6-0, 235 pound lefty thumper taken with the 14th pick in the 2006 draft, Snider shredded minor league pitching (.304/.382/.533, 11.1 BB%, .229 ISO) while reaching the majors for parts of his age 20 and 21 seasons. While some seem disappointed with his work thus far (a .330 wOBA in 466 career PA), there’s no shame in being a league-average hitter in the majors at ages in which most batters are taking cuts in High-A or Double-A. Take note of a couple of plate discipline trends for Snider over the 2008, 2009 and 2010 seasons:

2008: 33.3 Outside Swing%, 68.5 Z-Swing%, 70 Contact%
2009: 27.1 Outside Swing%, 71.8 Z-Swing%, 71.3 Contact%
2010: 21.4 Outside Swing%, 72.2 Z-Swing%, 76.6 Contact%

(Outside Swing= percentage of swings on pitches outside of the strike zone; the MLB average has been 25-27% in recent years. Z-Swing= percentage of swings on pitches within the strike zone; the MLB average has been 63-65% recently. The average Contact rate is 80-81%).

Snider is gradually laying off pitcher’s pitches, swinging at more in-zone offerings and making more contact. So far this season, he has batted .227/.318/.433, with an 11.8 percent walk rate, a 23.7 percent punch out rate, a .206 ISO and a .325 wOBA. He has elite power in that pre-slim-down Matt Stairs frame, and he’s controlling the zone well. That’s not to say that everything is perfect: Snider has a 22.7 infield/fly ball percentage that’s basically twice the MLB average. Those weak pop ups are easy outs, and help explain his .257 BABIP. But overall, a 22-year-old slugger who’s taking a more enlightened plate approach is well worth a look.

Tom Gorzelanny, Cubs (12%)

Picked up from the Pirates last summer (along with lefty reliever John Grabow) for RHPs Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio and INF Josh Harrison, Gorzelanny lost the faith of Pittsburgh’s new regime. The Bucs’ second-round pick in the ’03 draft compiled an impressive minor league resume (8.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 career) and rated #96 on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list prior to 2006. But, after so-so performances in 2006 (4.88 xFIP) and 2007 (4.82 xFIP), Gorzelanny imploded in 2008 on his way to a 5.84 xFIP.

Described by BA as possessing 90-92 MPH gas capable of hitting 95, a slider that could be “unhittable at times” and a rapidly improving changeup in the ’06 Prospect Handbook, Gorzo devolved into a guy with a high-80’s fastball, no slider to speak of and a marginal changeup. Add in injury problems (elbow tendinitis in ’06, shoulder tightness in ’07, and middle finger and shoulder ailments in ’08), and the lefty looked busted.

Things began to change in 2009, however, as Gorzelanny managed a K per inning, 3.26 BB/9 and a 3.73 xFIP in 47 innings (seven starts, 15 ‘pen appearances), mostly for the Cubs. And, given a chance to start full-time in 2010, the 27-year-old is off to a fantastic start.

In 35 innings, Gorzelanny has 9.26 K/9, 2.83 BB/9 and a 3.34 xFIP. That velocity he showed as a Pirates farmhand doesn’t appear to be coming back (89.9 MPH with the fastball), But Gorzo’s using his once-vaunted slider over a quarter of the time and he’s getting a bunch of swings on pitches off the plate (34.6 O-Swing%). His swinging strike rate sits at a healthy 11.6% (8.3% MLB average).

Gorzelanny isn’t likely to keep up this pace, but his rest-of-season ZiPS projection is quite useful (7.53 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, 3.93 FIP). And look at that ownership rate–Carlos Silva (29% owned) is on more than twice as many fantasy squads as Gorzo. That should soon change.

Ian Desmond, Washington Nationals

The 24 year-old Desmond was recently named Washington’s starting shortstop, overtaking $8 million man Cristian Guzman. Though the club said it wasn’t a factor, Guzman (who missed time with a shoulder injury last September and this spring) has struggled to unleash throws from deep in the hole.

A third round pick in the 2004 draft, Desmond had a big year at the plate in 2009. He missed two months following surgery to remove the hamate bone in his left hand, but he hit a combined .330/.401/.477 between Double-A and Triple-A. A near-.400 BABIP helped him tremendously, though he did do a better job of working the count (9.1 percent walk rate). In a late-season stint with the Nationals, Desmond posted a .372 wOBA in 89 plate appearances. What do the projection systems say about him?

CHONE: .265/.326/.412, .324 wOBA
ZiPS: .270/.334/.388, .325 wOBA
FANS: .278/.335/.412, .330 wOBA

Desmond should be about a league-average hitter in 2010. At shortstop, that’s useful in NL-only leagues. For more on Desmond, see Dan Budreika’s breakdown and Marc Hulet’s Top 10 Nationals prospects list.

Franklin Morales, Colorado Rockies

Huston Street (shoulder) will start the season on the DL, giving Morales the chance to rack up some saves in the early going.

As a starter in the minors, the 24 year-old lefty whiffed a batter per inning but walked a whopping 5.2 batters per nine frames. At the Triple-A level, Morales had 7.3 K/9 and 6.1 BB/9 in 168.2 innings. Shifted to the bullpen in 2009, he posted a 4.72 xFIP with 9.23 K/9 and 5.18 BB/9 in 40 innings.

At this point, Morales tries to overpower hitters with 92-93 MPH heat while hoping for enough weak swings to compensate for a lack of secondary stuff and control. Morales’ fastball has been a plus pitch in the majors (+0.57 runs/100 pitches), and he gets plenty of swings and misses: his fastball had an 8.4 percent whiff rate last year, compared to the six percent MLB average. However, his low-70’s curveball (-1.13) and high-70’s changeup (-0.66) lag behind, and his first pitch strike percentage in the bigs is just 50.9 percent (58 percent MLB average).

Though he’s far from a finished product, Morales is well worth picking up in all formats.

Jeff Clement, Pittsburgh Pirates

Clement was once considered a franchise building block in Seattle as a catcher with ample lefty pop. Now, he’s a 26 year-old first baseman aspiring to be the next Adam LaRoche in Pittsburgh. Though he has struggled in limited major league playing time (.237/.309/.393 in 243 PA), Clement has a career .279/.368/.492 line at the Triple-A level.

Problem is, that’s yawn-inducing now that he has fallen down the defensive spectrum. CHONE and ZiPS both project a .265/.340/.460-type season for Clement in 2010. That’s not bad, but consider that the average MLB first baseman socked to the tune of a .277/.362/.483 triple-slash in 2009. Clement will open the year as Pittsburgh’s starting first baseman, and he could have a little value in NL-only leagues. But he’ll have to mash to keep his spot.

Tom Gorzelanny, Chicago Cubs

The former Pirates prospect looked cooked in 2008, but his stuff bounced back in ’09 as he pitched well in seven starts and 15 relief appearances (3.73 xFIP). Gorzo has punched out 8.6 batters per nine innings with 2.5 BB/9 in Triple-A, and both CHONE and ZiPS figure that he’ll be a handy starter for the Cubs in 2010:

CHONE: 7.39 K/9, 3.61 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 4.43 FIP
ZiPS: 7.25 K/9, 3.74 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 4.25 FIP

His rotation spot isn’t guaranteed once Ted Lilly returns, but Gorzelanny has the talent to remain in the starting five and provide value in NL-only leagues.

(Jason Heyward is an obvious candidate here, but we examined his fantasy value a few days ago.)

Russell Branyan, Cleveland Indians

The Three True Outcomes nomad will start the season on the DL with a herniated disk in his back. Branyan isn’t likely to match last year’s .368 wOBA with the M’s (most projection systems have him regressing to the .350 range), and a balky back won’t help his chances.

On a positive note, CC Sabathia trade goodies Michael Brantley (left field) and Matt LaPorta (first base) will open the year in the starting lineup. Brantley offers a keen eye and high-percentage base thievery (46 SB in 51 tries at Triple-A last year), and LaPorta can put a charge into the ball (career .266 ISO in the minors).

Dustin McGowan, Toronto Blue Jays

When healthy, McGowan has been a quality starter (career 4.28 xFIP). But the 28 year-old hasn’t tossed a major league pitch since July of 2008 following shoulder surgery. He was recently shut down, so it doesn’t look like McGowan is particularly close to pumping mid-90’s heat and upper-80’s breaking stuff like he used to.

Melky Cabrera, Atlanta Braves

Fantasy players aren’t going to cry over spilled Melky, not with Heyward getting a chance to shine in right field. But with the best hitting prospect in the game making the squad, Cabrera goes from a possible sleeper in NL-only leagues (CHONE projects a .358 wOBA) to a part-time player who will share left field with Matt Diaz.

Minnesota’s closer-by-committee

With Joe Nathan (Tommy John surgery) sidelined in 2010, Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire plans to enter 2010 with a closer-by-committee approach. That means Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares and Jesse Crain could all get a shot at the ninth. Any owner who drafted Nathan, watched his elbow go boom and then picked up Rauch looking to recoup some value is probably getting all twitchy while reading this.

With the departure of delicate-yet-dominant righty Rich Harden via free agency, the Chicago Cubs have an open competition at the back end of the rotation. The candidates range from toxic (Carlos Silva) to infuriating (Jeff Samardzija) to intriguing (Tom Gorzelanny). Here’s a brief run-down of the hurlers vying to take the ball every fifth day for the Cubbies.

Picked up in the Milton Bradley deal with the Mariners, Silva should come with a Mr. Yuck sticker attached to him. The sinker-centric right-hander, 31 in April, was formerly a serviceable starter with the Twins, using pinpoint control (career 1.71 BB/9) to overcome an inability to make batters whiff (3.78 K/9).

The M’s inked Silva to a four-year, $48 million contract prior to the 2008 season, and he’s been beaten like he stole something ever since. An incredibly high BABIP and low strand rate masked what was another Silva-esque performance in ’08 (6.46 ERA, 4.64 xFIP), but he went on the DL with right biceps tendinitis in August. In 2009, he threw 30.1 grisly innings (5.53 xFIP) before succumbing to a right rotator cuff injury that limited him to just two more major league appearances. CHONE projects a 4.67 FIP next year. Even if he returns to form, he’s not a fantasy option.

Like Silva, Samardzija has come to be defined by the big bucks handed out for his services. The Cubs gave the former Notre Dame wide receiver a $10 million big league contract to eschew the NFL. Several years later, Chicago still isn’t sure what it has in the 25 year-old righty.

Samardzija had an underwhelming full-season debut in 2007, punching out 4.1 batters per nine innings, walking 2.8 per nine and posting a 4.73 FIP in 141.2 IP between the High-A Florida State League and the Double-A Southern League. Baseball America liked his heater for its combination of velocity and sink, but panned his inconsistent slider and changeup/splitter. “Samardzija,” BA said, is “still capable of becoming a frontline starter, a closer or a bust.”

In 2008, Samardzija missed more bats, but at the expense of control. Tossing 113.1 innings split between Double-A and the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, he had 6.7 K/9, 4.6 BB/9 and a 4.60 FIP. The Golden Domer also logged 27.1 major league innings out of the Cubs’ bullpen, with 8.13 K/9, 4.88 BB/9 and a 4.34 xFIP.

This past year, Samardzija shuttled between Iowa and Chicago. In 89 frames at Triple-A, he struck out 7.18 hitters per nine innings, issuing 2.73 BB/9 and compiling a 4.37 FIP. His major league stints didn’t go nearly as well. Samardzija was smacked for a 5.16 xFIP in 34.2 IP, with 5.45 K/9 and 3.89 BB/9.

Samardzija’s low-80’s slider (+0.17 runs per 100 pitches in the majors) and mid-80’s splitter (+0.95) have been effective, but his 93-94 MPH fastball (-1.09) hasn’t been as advertised. CHONE’s projection for Samardzija comes in relief, and it’s not especially sunny: a 4.74 FIP, with 6.92 K/9 and 3.88 BB/9. If you tack something like 0.75 to one run on to that to account for a shift in roles (The Book found that relievers shifting into starting roles generally perform about one run worse per nine innings), then things start getting ugly. Samardzija might be best off pitching in short stints.

Gorzelanny, meanwhile, was once a prized prospect in the Pirates organization. Armed with low-90’s velocity and a sharp slider, the left-hander displayed an exciting combo of force and finesse as he climbed the minor league ladder.

He pitched adequately in the bigs in 2006 and 2007 (with xFIPs of 4.88 and 4.82, respectively). However, a hefty workload in ’07 seemed to sap Gorzelanny of his former stuff: his fastball fell to the 88 MPH range and he walked nearly six batters per nine innings in 2008, posting a 5.84 xFIP in the process. He was booted to Triple-A in July (where he showed a pulse: 35 IP, 33/4 K/BB, 2.11 FIP) and suffered a left middle finger injury that sidelined him in September.

This past season, Gorzelanny started games at Triple-A Indianapolis, mopped up and got spot-starts for the Bucs in the majors, and was shipped to Chicago (along with LHP John Grabow) for righties Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio, plus minor league INF Josh Harrison. The Cubs also split Gorzo’s appearances between the bullpen and the rotation.

The 27 year-old performed admirably at the Triple-A level, whiffing 8.79 per nine innings, walking 3.1 and compiling a 2.87 FIP in 87 innings. In 47 major league innings (seven starts, 15 relief appearances), Gorzelanny pleasantly punched out a batter per inning, while handing out 3.26 walks per nine with a 3.73 xFIP. His fastball velocity crept back up to 91 MPH. For 2010, CHONE forecasts a 4.43 FIP for Gorzelanny as a starter, with 7.39 K/9 and 3.61 BB/9.

It’s worth nothing that while “who’s the fifth guy?” makes for good spring training copy, every team ends up relying on those sixth, seventh and even eighth starters at some point. With Big Z becoming familiar with the DL (shoulder in ’08, hamstring and back in ’09) and Ted Lilly working his way back from knee and shoulder ailments, odds are that Chicago’s starting depth will be tested. Gorzelanny’s revived repertoire makes him the best best of those back-end options.

While buccaneers elsewhere are enjoying plenty of success, the Pittsburgh Pirates continue to struggle mightily. A new, more progressive front office regime is in place, but the route back to contention (much like shipping route in the Gulf of Aden) will be a long an treacherous one. Closing in on a dubious record for the most consecutive losing seasons, the Bucs must invest heavily in the player development system to once again become relevant, cultivating home-grown stars at minimal cost.

One of the few bright spots during former GM Dave Littlefield’s ill-fated tenure was the selection of left-hander Tom Gorzelanny in the 2nd round of the 2003 amateur entry draft. The Triton College product quickly established himself as one of the more promising prospects in the Pirates’ system, compiling an impressive minor league dossier that included a 3.01 ERA, 8.59 K/9 and 2.72 BB/9.

After getting a brief glimpse of the majors in 2005, Gorzelanny went on a tear at AAA Indianapolis in ’06 (99.2 IP, 3.48 K/BB ratio) and tossed 61.2 frames for the Pirates at the end of the season. The results were nothing to write home about (5.84 K/9, 4.52 BB/9) and he served a DL stint for elbow soreness in August, but he displayed a 92 MPH fastball and a pretty sharp low-80’s slider while generating a decent amount of grounders (49.2 GB%). Lefties with that sort of package do not grow on trees.

The Evergreen, Illinois native spent the entire 2007 campaign in the big league rotation, tossing a curiously high 201.2 innings (more on that later). His peripherals weren’t great (6.02 K/9, 3.03 BB/9), and his 3.88 ERA was more the reflection of a very low home run/flyball rate (HR/FB%) of 7% than stellar pitching. Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from the Hardball Times, we can get a better read on Gorzelanny’s performance. XFIP uses strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run rate (HR/FB% for starting pitchers tends to hover around 11-12%) to calculate a pitcher’s ERA. Gorzelanny’s XFIP was nearly a run higher than his actual ERA, at 4.87. On top of that, his 92 MPH heater dropped to 89.9 MPH, he cut the usage of his slider to 11.2% and his GB% fell to 42.1%.

The most surprising aspect of Gorzelanny’s 2007 season was the way that he was used/abused down the stretch. Despite being in contention for positively nothing, then-manager Jim Tracy worked his 24 year-old starter unnecessarily hard, perhaps to the point of breaking him. In his article examining Chad Billingsley, Peter referenced the “Verducci Effect“, a concept developed by Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci. Verducci, using research compiled over the past several seasons, theorizes that young pitchers who are subjected to an innings total increase of 30 or more between one season and the next are more prone to injury.

In 2006, Gorzelanny tossed 99.2 innings at AAA and 61.2 innings with the Pirates, for a combined total of 161.1 IP. Considering that some people (including Baseball Prospectus’ Will Carroll) believe that there’s a marked difference in stress between minor league and major league innings, Gorzelanny’s innings increase between 2006 and 2007 might have actually been higher than 40.1 frames. Even if taken at face value, Gorzelanny’s workload put him squarely in the crosshairs of the “Verducci Effect.”

Perhaps in an attempt to win a few extra ballgames and save his job, Tracy seemingly pushed Gorzelanny harder as the season progressed. Gorzelanny made 11 starts over August and September, and Tracy kept his lefty out there for at least 100 pitches in eight of those starts. It’s not as though the 100+ pitch games were efficient, either: the longest Gorzelanny went in any of those games was seven innings. Not surprisingly, Gorzelanny ranked near the top of the majors in Pitcher Abuse Points, a Baseball Prospectus stat that attempts to measure the stress that pitchers are put under by higher workloads.

With that damage inflicted, Gorzelanny was an unmitigated disaster in 2008. In an injury-shortened 105.1 IP, he struck out just 5.72 batters per nine innings and issued an alarming 5.98 BB/9. Gorzelanny was crushed by the long ball, surrendering 1.71 HR/9. His HR/FB rate was somewhat high at 13.2%, but even if we normalize the HR rate, Gorzelanny’s XFIP was a macabre 6.14. His once-plus fastball continued to fade, coming in at an average speed of 88.7 MPH, and he cut his slider usage down to 7.9%. Instead, Gorzelanny heavily utilized an 82.5 MPH changeup (20.5%). Gorzelanny also continued to surrender more flyballs, with a GB% of just 40.3%. Banished to the minors in July and placed on the DL with a left middle finger injury in September, Gorzelanny endured a season that he would rather forget.

Unfortunately, the current version of Tom Gorzelanny just doesn’t look anything like the guy in the prospect catalogs. Instead of displaying low-90’s heat and a plus slider, he now showcases a much less appealing high-80’s fastball/low-80’s changeup combo, with flyball tendencies to boot. Perhaps an offseason of rest will do wonders for Gorzelanny’s battered body, but steer clear of this Pirate if he doesn’t regain his velocity, lest your fantasy season go the way of an oil tanker off the coast of Somalia.