Archive for Tim Stauffer

There are a sundry of middle/set-up relievers that can succeed in the closer role if given the opportunity. A few obvious: Wade Davis if something happens to Greg Holland… Wil Myers for James Shields and who?!; Ken Giles if the Phillies can somehow find a trade partner for the grundle-grabber; and Brad Boxberger if not Jake McGee. I assume David Robertson signs elsewhere and Dellin Betances steps in.

Lets’ look at potential closers using reliever outcomes. Here are the average contact and balls in play-related outcomes for all relievers that qualified and specifically relievers with 10+ saves:

Our Filters: 

• Contact-related outcomes: For K-BB%, Ct% and SwStr%, I filtered simply by the general relief pitcher averages. Everyone below average in these 3 categories was filtered out.
• Command-related outcomes: For zone% and first-pitch-strike%, I used 1 standard deviation below average and 1.25 SD’s below average in BABIP as filters. 1.25 SD allowed me to omit only the relievers that had career BABIP’s higher than we would like to see for a closer or in general. I didn’t want to screen out Jenrry Mejia (1.24 SD below the mean) or Tim Stauffer (1.19 SD below), because there’s a possibility for BABIP regression.
• Balls In Play-related outcomes: I was lax on the balls in play outcomes. I went with a 40% Grounder rate and 45% Flyball rate as my filters versus the averages that you see above because below average fly-rates don’t mean much in places like Tampa (where Boxberger is elite but below average in fly-rates); and above average grounder-rates don’t mean as much with atrocious defense behind you (hence Corey Kluber’s unlucky BABIP, which should have been closer to .299 per end-of-season xBABIP/Inside Edge data), but I digress.

Using these filters, we’re left with a robust list of above-average relievers beyond just closers (scroll down for the noted filters):

What happens if we use the command (K-BB%)/contact (Ct% and SwStr%) related averages for relievers with more than 10 saves this year? 

…We’re left with some elite closers and then a few interesting names.

Last year, Danny Farquhar (just missed the list this year) had a top 20 swinging-strike rate – about a percent better than Fernando Rodney, but it was masked by his BABIP and left-on-base rate that killed his surface stats (4.20 ERA vs. 2.40 xFIP). This year, he actually outperformed his xFIP with a 2.66 ERA. After an early season MASH Report on Rodney’s velocity, I eyed Farquhar. At least keep him in mind next year if anything does happen to Rodney.

Josh Edgin (Mets for those of you that don’t know) has a top 65 contact-rate sandwiched between Mark Melancon and Jake McGee and even induced grounders 50% of the time. He has a pretty extensive repertoire as well. In order of usage: Fourseamer, Slider, Curve, Change, Cutter and Sinker. According to his Brooks Player Card, he has great swing and miss rates on his Curve (>56%), Cutter (50%), Slider (>42%) and Sinker (33%). Even his Change approaches 30%. This isn’t the case on his Fastball, but at 93+ MPH, it induces a decent amount of grounders (1.8 GB/FB). Keep in mind he had late-season elbow issues which effected his velocity by a MPH or so, but he could be called upon to get Mejia out of a jam. I like him better than an unhealthy Bobby Parnell and Jeurys Familia from a command perspective for another year.

Zach Duke did his best Craig Kimbrel impression prior to the R2M monster hitting him in August. Prior to 8/1, Duke had a 34.9% K-rate and 27.3 K-BB%. Kimbrel ended the year with a 38.9% K-rate and 28.3 K-BB%. I think August and September brought him back to his realistic value (~2.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). It will be interesting to see who closes for the Brewers if they let Francisco Rodriguez go. Both Duke and Will Smith have above average (even for RP w/ 10+ saves) swing-and-miss. Will Smith should have additional command next year, but Zack Duke induces grounders better which I like in my closers/in Milwaukee. They also have Jonathan Broxton. The hierarchy seemed to be K-rod-Broxton-Smith late last season. If that’s the case, they should use Duke more (former starter) and in higher leverage situations. He was equally solid against both lefties (.258 wOBA) and righties (.262 wOBA).

Oliver Perez everybody! I thought I could filter him out by his splits being a lefty, but like 2012, he was more effective vs. righties (and faced 44 more of them). The D-backs have Addison Reed, up-and-comer Evan Marshall as well as Daniel Hudson caught touching 97 MPH so if not by outcomes or splits, we can filter Perez out by opportunity.

Darren O’Day and Andrew Miller is part of one dominating Baltimore bullpen – one that gets referenced by anyone who thinks the Orioles can beat the Tigers in the ALDS. Notice that Zach Britton didn’t make either of the above lists! He was filtered out by his below average K-BB% (13.70%). It’s his 75+% grounder rate (hence the 81+% left-on-base rate and .215 BABIP) that keeps him elite in Baltimore. The only concern you can have with O’Day is a fastball velocity almost 2 standard deviations below the mean for relievers, but his arm angle combined with that slider still induces a 30+% whiff-rate on both pitches. Miller’s slider though is a world apart from O’Day’s: only Pedro Strop, Will Smith, Jake Diekman, Greg Holland and Oliver Perez induces more whiffs than Miller’s 55% according to Baseball Prospectus’ Pitchf/x Leaderboards.  I doubt we’ll see a closer-transition next year in Baltimore unless Britton’s GB/FB ratio takes a drastic dive because his HR/FB ratio, which approached 18%, could be an issue.

An xBABIP review

On the last day of the season, @jeffwzimmerman provided me with Pitch xBABIP based on inside edge data. Let’s look at some of the bigger xBABIP differentials to keep in mind:

The last column depicts the z-score for BABIP differential. Francisco Rodriguez was expected to have a BABIP about 120 points above his actual BABIP. I highlighted (red/bad; green/good) the xBABIP z-scores as well so that you know whether or not to actually be concerned meaning sure Aaron Sanchez has the 5th biggest BABIP differential (over 2 standard deviations from the mean), but a .239 xBABIP is still utterly elite (3.34 SD’s from the mean). On the other side of the equation, it’s nice to see Evan Marshall, Carlos Martinez and Adam Ottavino (albeit in Colorado) with large BABIP differentials. Marshall and Martinez even have xBABIP’s over .5SD from the mean.

The last bit of fun

It was a very fun year to be doing bullpen reports for RotoGraphs. Aroldis Chapman broke the single-season strikeout rate of 2012 Craig Kimbrel (50.2%). He struck out 52.5% of the hitters he faced. Andrew Miller (42.6%) and Brad Boxberger (42.1%) also made the top 10 seasons ever. Dellin Betances (39.6%), Wade Davis (39.1%) and Craig Kimbrel (38.9%) made the top 20. Chapman’s swinging-strike% of 20% beat ’12 Kimbrel by .8%, but he couldn’t pass ’04 Lidge, ’03 Gagne, ’04 Gagne, ’02 Gagne or ’05 Lidge. Chapman, Miller, Doolittle, Boxberger, Betances (Wade Davis and Kenley Jansen close behind) all had historical, top 20 K-BB rates. Relievers dominate this list: only ’99 Pedro Martinez (#12), ’00 Pedro Martinez (#21), ’01 Randy Johnson (#27) and ’01 Pedro Martinez (#28) make it into the top 30, but it’s clear that we have a growing list of elite relievers.

From a fantasy perspective, thanks to 45+ saves totals out of Holland and Kimbrel, we had two relievers ranked in the top 20 pitchers. If Chapman didn’t miss time and Betances and Davis consumed the closer role, we would have had 3 others. Last year, Craig Kimbrel and his 4 wins, 50 saves, 98 SO’s, 1.21 ERA and .88 WHIP campaign made him the 3rd most valuable pitcher. This year with Kershaw, Cueto, Felix and Kluber, it would have taken even more.

If we combined the 3 more dominating performances exclusive of saves this year: Aroldis Chapman’s K-rate (52.5%) and saves total (36), Dellin Betances IP (90) – who was dominating in his own right, Wade Davis’ ERA (1.00) and Wins total (9) and Sean Doolittle’s WHIP (.73) – let’s call this guy Aroldellin Dooldavis, we would wind up with a 10.95 z-sum…just above Corey Kluber (10.72), but under Clayton Kershaw (13.74), Johnny Cueto (12.95) and Felix Hernandez (12.50). Even 50 saves wouldn’t have done the trick (12.43 z-sum):

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 14.

Colby Lewis – Home runs are killing Lewis this year, as he has allowed the third most HR (20) in all of baseball. He was pounded in back-to-back starts where he allowed 4 HR and 15 ER in 4.2 IP in early June. But in his last three starts, Lewis has allowed “only” 3 HR in 20.1 IP and picked up two wins. This week Lewis gets the A’s and O’s. Oakland ranks last in the AL with 43 HR in 83 games. Baltimore has more power, but 50 of its 83 HR have come at home this season. Look for Lewis to maintain his recent strong pitching and give him a starting nod this week.

Shaun Marcum – A hip flexor has slowed Marcum recently after the veteran got off to a 7-2 start in his first season with the Brewers. In his last three outings, Marcum has allowed 8 ER in 9 IP, two of which came on the road. This week Marcum is scheduled for two home starts. And while he has a 4-1 home record this season, Marcum has a 4.13 ERA at Miller Park, nearly two runs higher than his road mark. Given his recent struggles, give Marcum a week off to get healthier.

Wandy Rodriguez – The elbow injury that sidelined Rodriguez for three weeks has not been a lingering problem. He was just finding his stride before being put on the DL and in his four starts since being activated, Rodriguez is 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA with 20 Ks in 25 IP. While he does have two road starts this week, Rodriguez is 4-2 with a 3.20 ERA on the road this season. He has struggled some with the gopher ball this year, but he takes on PIT and FLA this week, two teams that are below-average in hitting homers. Rodriguez should be in your lineup this week.

Tim Stauffer – It would be hard to find a pitcher whose ERA more closely matches his peripherals than Stauffer. His 2.97 ERA is nearly identical to his 3.01 FIP and 2.99 xFIP. Stauffer has been on a role lately, with a 3-1 record and a 1.00 ERA in his past five starts. However, four of those games came at home and the other was in MIN. This week he has to go on the road to face SF and LAD. Stauffer has pitched well away from Petco (3.25 ERA) and neither the Giants (46 runs in last 14 games) nor Dodgers (53 runs in last 15) have been lighting up the scoreboard recently. Look for Stauffer to continue his strong pitching and keep him active.

Jordan Zimmermann – In his last 11 starts, Zimmermann has 11 Quality Starts. And not one of those barely meets the requirements at 6 IP and 3 ER. In fact, he’s only allowed 3 ER once in the 11 games. He has an outstanding 1.85 ERA in this stretch. Yet he’s only 4-3. Zimmermann is not striking out batters at his previous rate but he holds a BB/9 of just 1.75 and has been stingy with the long ball (3.1 HR/FB) this year. The HR rate makes his xFIP (3.67) a full run higher than his overall ERA (2.63) but is still a solid mark. With two home starts this week, keep plugging Zimmermann into your lineup.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 14 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lincecum, F. Hernandez, Shields, Cain, Lester, Haren, Price, Scherzer, Hudson, Cueto, J. Garcia, Jimenez, Carpenter, Baker, Morrow, Hanson, Burnett, Peavy, Dempster, Nolasco, Zambrano, Carrasco, Tomlin, Harrison, Lowe, Buehrle, Wolf, Lilly, Volquez, Myers, Lackey, Capuano, Duensing, Worley, Pelfrey, Maholm, Pineiro, Richards, R. de la Rosa, Francis, Furbush, Cecil, Volstad, Moscoso, Cook, Jakubauskas, McCarthy, Duke

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 12 pitchers and how they fared.

Gee – Advised to start. W, 2 Ks, 6.30 ERA, 1.900 WHIP, 10 IP, 7 ER
Holland – Advised to sit. W, 4 Ks, 4.05 ERA, 1.575 WHIP, 13.1 IP, 6 ER
Narveson – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 4.05 ERA, 1.125 WHIP, 13.1 IP, 6 ER
Pavano – Advised to sit. W, 7 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 14 IP, 7 ER
Zambrano – Advised to sit. W, 7 Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 15 IP, 5 ER

Today’s look at NL Starting Pitchers is nutrient dense.

Read the rest of this entry »

Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals | 50% Owned (Y!) | 57.5% Owned (ESPN)
The young righty didn’t exactly start the season out on a high note, as he struggled to strike batters out, and his ERA paid the price. However, Zimmermann has turned a corner as of late, and is looking like a darn good starting pitcher once again. Behold, as I give on to you split stats!

April: 29.2 IP, 4.25 K/9, 2.90 FIP, 4.55 ERA
May: 24.2 IP, 9.49 K/9, 2.70 FIP, 3.28 ERA

While Zimm’s April FIP looks awfully nice, his xFIP came in at around 4.00, so most of his work was done by keeping the ball in the yard. In May, however, his xFIP is in the low-3s.

Looking at some pitch f/x data, Zimmermann’s average fastball velocity is exactly the same as it was before he went under the knife, so it’s not like he’s trying to deal with a different arsenal of pitches at his disposal. His biggest problem has been a mediocre curveball that hasn’t been fooling hitters, but his fastball-slider combo is good enough to get righties out. He’s looking like he’s mixed-league worthy right now, and his ownership rates reflect that.

Tim Stauffer, Padres | 36% | 6.4%
Stauffer’s FIP and xFIP numbers look pretty darn good, and they have been backed up by good performances for most of this season. Over his past couple of starts, though, Stauffer has been hit around, and he still hasn’t picked up a win this year. I had the chance to watch Stauffer when he played the Mariners this past weekend, and he did not look sharp. Even though he kept the ball down in the zone and got a good deal of grounders, his fastball looked a little flat and his command was shaky at times. In my opinion, he was lucky to escape with a six innings and three earned runs. I still like the idea of Stauffer on my fantasy team, but you have to keep and eye on him during his next couple of starts to make sure he doesn’t blow up. If he doesn’t, he’s a great guy to have around.

Jordan Lyles, Astros | 0% | 0%
Lyles is Houston’s top prospect, at least according to our own Marc Hulet. Lyles isn’t anything spectacular, but he has a decent arsenal and has consistently posted FIPs in the 3s throughout his minor league career. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lyles up in the big leagues within a month or two, as the Astros need to take a look and see what they have long term with this guy. He won’t be great when he first comes up, but he could be a NL spot starter, at the very least.

If you are in H2H championships right now, you are probably thinking of streaming or already knee deep in probable starters as we speak. Here’s a quick run-down of the more interesting starters by day for the final weekend. Good luck!

Friday
Mark Rogers is starting against the Reds and if you need strikeouts and strikeouts alone, he’s an interesting name. He missed all of 2007 and 2008 with labrum surgeries (torn!) and yet he’s got his velocity back up to 94/95 MPH and has shown his characteristic strikeout punch again (10.06 K/9 in his minor league career). Then again, Rogers has control problems (5.67 BB/9 career in minor leagues), to put it mildly. He also saw a reduced strikeout rate (about one per inning) after the surgeries. In more shallow leagues, the strikeouts-and-strikeouts alone option is Bud Norris, but that’s living on the edge, too, despite his nice FIP (4.16).

PIcking up Pat Misch might be a misch-take but at least he doesn’t walk people (0.93 BB/9 this year, 2.53 career), and is keeping the ball on the ground this year (51.8%). The Washington lineup will also be without Ryan Zimmerman, so he’ll have less opposition. He’s probably the safest streamer Friday. Jordan Zimmermann is also safer than Rogers (most starters are), and offers more strikeout ability than Misch, but he’s been limited to about five innings per start, so his ability to get you a “W” has been adversely affected.

The Kyle Kendrick / Brandon Beachy tilt is probably best to be avoided, given Kendrick’s FIP (4.91) and Beachy’s lack of experience and the stress of the moment. If you’re going to take the dive on one of the two, try Beachy, who has always shown great control in the minor leagues (2.12 BB/9), and added strikeout punch as he advanced.

Saturday
Saturday is actually a rough day for streamers, with a lot of established pitchers taking their final turns. Chris Capuano has been pitching decently and should be fresh, but his career numbers (4.34 ERA / 1.35 WHIP) were accrued in over 700 innings and shouldn’t be ignored. He’s pretty vanilla and only struck out one dude in his last start. His opponent, Homer Bailey, offers much more in the way of strikeout ability and risk. But Bailey’s only given up more than four runs once in his past ten appearances, so maybe he’s not as risky as we think. He’s pitching as a post-season audition and has a 3.89 FIP, he’s a decent spot starter.

Tim Stauffer is flying off the shelves (14% owned now), and for good reason. He’s got a great final matchup against the Giants, and has finally regained that groundball-inducing stuff (53.7%) that made him interesting before the injuries. His FIP (2.84) and opponent makes him the best spot starter of the day. Wade Davis is also an interesting name for the day, as he has a good matchup (the Royals) and has been pitching better since the half-way mark (3.36 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9).

Joe Saunders and Alex Sanabia both have nice matchups (the Dodgers in LA and the Pirates in Florida, respectively), and they limit the walks (2.93 and 1.99 BB/9), but both have poor strikeout rates (5 and 5.85 K/9), so they are better options for those looking to protect ratios than those looking for the K.

Sunday
A little tip for roto players looking to get the most out of their innings limits. On Yahoo, the innings limits are enforced at the end of the day. So if you have one inning going into the final day, you can throw as many arms as you like that day and receive credit for all of them. It may not be in the spirit of the rule, but it is in the rules, and winning eases all pains. If you have little to lose in regards to your ratios, you might as well throw everyone you can that day.

That said, it’s not a great day for streaming. The shallow league prize is probably Ted Lilly, who has a nice matchup against the K-happy Diamondbacks in Los Angeles, but he’s owned in 62% of leagues and you’d have to get lucky to find him on your wire. Mike Pelfrey seems streaky and is in the midst of a decent stretch (only two starts of 3+ runs allowed in his last ten) and he gets the scrubs the Nationals want to run out on their final day in a decent matchup. He’s available about half the time, too. Randy Wolf would be a better matchup if he weren’t a flyballer going into Cincinnati, but he’s been strong this second half at least (3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) and is a known quantity.

The deep league prize is probably Marc “Scrabble” Rzepczynski, who is once again striking out over eight per nine (8.1 K/9) and keeping the ball on the ground (51.7%). His walks are once again a little too high, though (4.45 BB/9 this year, 4.42 career), so as his FIP shows (4.87), he’s not without risk. Then again, it doesn’t seem likely that the Twins will risk too many of their regulars on the last day, and Scrabble is coming off of a string of good starts, including his last, a gem against the Yankees. I’d rather use him than his opponent Nick Blackburn, as his groundball-inducing repertoire will be going up against a slew of Jays trying to pad career-high homer totals. Strength on strength, I’m not betting against Jose Bautista et al, at least not this year.

Otherwise, it’s a tough day. Had Brad Bergesen not blown up against the Rays, he might look like a decent start against the weaker Tigers offense, but there is that five-run start looking up at you from his game log (as well as his poor strikeout numbers (4.25 K/9) and well-deserved FIP (5.20)). Brian Burres gets an okay matchup in Florida, but he’s not a good pitcher (5.01 K/9, 4.89 FIP). If you are scraping the bottom of this barrel, you’d be better off trying Esmil Rogers, who gets to pitch in St. Louis and has shown the ability to keep the ball on the ground (50.7% career GB) and garner the strikeout (8.47 K/9 this year). Call Rogers the surprise at the bottom of the cracker jacks.

It is never too late to improve your team! Here are five players available on the waiver wire under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your squad for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Jason Frasor (36%) – Those hunting for saves should be thrilled to find a closer like Frasor on the waiver wire this late in the year. Yes, he blew a save last night but previously he had saves in four consecutive outings. Frasor has a good strikeout numbers with a 8.71 K/9 and his WHIP (1.03) is very good, too.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Brian Duensing (26%) – After 14 outings in relief, the Twins moved Duensing to the rotation, where he has enjoyed more success. In his six starts, Duensing is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA and a 1.139 WHIP. He also has 28 Ks in 36 IP as a starter. The lefty topped out at 93.8 mph with his fastball in his last start. Pitch Type Values show both his fastball and slider being plus pitches.

Under 20 Percent Owned

Tim Stauffer (12%) – After starting the season 1-6, Stauffer has turned things around, going 3-0 in his last four starts and losing a win when Heath Bell blew the save in the ninth inning in Stauffer’s last start. In his last four games, Stauffer has a 2.22 ERA and a 1.397 WHIP. Stauffer is not overpowering and has not piled up strikeouts, but his changeup has proven to be a very effective pitch.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Eric Young Jr. (7%) – His father’s game was based on speed and the apple does not fall far from the tree. The elder Young notched 465 SB in his 15 year career in the majors. In four minor league seasons, the son stole 46 or more bases each time, topping out with 87 steals in 2006. Junior has three SB in his last four games with the Rockies. Playing time is going to be an issue, but if/when he gets in the game, the steals will follow.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Nick Johnson (51%) – While it is true that Johnson does not have the power you would like to see from your first baseman, it is also true that he has been productive when he has been able to stay healthy. Since coming back from the DL, Johnson has a .361-1-11-9-0 line in 10 games.

Here is the latest update to Week 16 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

CHC – Lilly
PHI – Blanton
LAD – Schmidt
NYY – Mitre
SD – Stauffer
MIL – Burns
FLA – VandenHurk
KC – Ponson

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

WSX – Danks
KC – Meche
PHI – Moyer
LAD – Weaver
SD – Banks

Lilly is seventh in the majors with a 4.21 K/BB ratio. He has always been a good strikeout pitcher but this season he has a BB/9 ratio under two for the first time in his career. Still, Lilly has been lucky with his 80.4 percent strand rate, which has led to a FIP 64 points above his ERA.

Blanton’s ERA stood at 7.11 after eight starts this season. Since then, he has a 4-1 record with a 2.44 ERA and 54 strikeouts in 59 innings. Seven of his last nine games have been Quality Starts.

Schmidt is poised to make his first start in the majors since June 16, 2007. He has been out since then due to shoulder problems. Schmidt make eight rehab appearances in the minors and was 2-0 with a 4.18 ERA at Triple-A Albuquerque, where he fanned 25 batters in 32.1 innings.

Mitre was 3-1 in seven starts at Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre. He had 35 strikeouts and five walks in 45 innings. Mitre, who pitched for the Cubs and Marlins, has not appeared in the majors since September of 2007.

Stauffer seeks to follow up his fine 2009 major league debut and the schedule maker has given him a favorable week, with a home game against Florida and a road tilt versus Washington.

Burns has a very nice 2.71 K/BB ratio but all of his other numbers are shaky. Fewer than 30 percent of his batted balls are grounders and he has an ugly 2.08 HR/9 mark.

VandenHurk opened the season on the 60-day disabled list with elbow soreness. The 6’5 righty was 4-1 with 2.71 ERA at Triple-A. New Orleans is one of the best pitchers parks in the PCL and VandenHurk was 3-0 with 1.82 ERA at home compared to 1-1 with a 3.75 ERA on the road.

Ponson still averages 91.6 with his fastball. And he is still nowhere close to a relevant fantasy option. In 11 games with the Royals this year, he has a 7.27 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP.

The All-Star break is a great time to talk trade with other members of your league. You have a couple of days where the stats do not change and everyone is focused in on just one game. Take advantage of this time and consider the following players in your trade talks.

Obtain

Pat Burrell – One of the more consistent HR threats the past four years, Burrell has just four HR this season. And while his BABIP is a normal .292 his AVG checks in at just .238, his lowest since 2003. Burrell has been slowed by a neck strain this season, which explains some of his poor numbers. But despite a career 16.2 percent HR/FB mark, Burrell’s numbers this year in the category sits at 5.7 percent, a figure unlikely to remain that low going forward. He may not do much better in AVG the rest of the year, but he should provide plenty of HR in the second half.

Roy Oswalt – Five wins at the All-Star break was not what owners were expecting when they made Oswalt a fifth-round pick this year. And now he shows up with the red injury symbol next to his name. But the bruised fingers are not expected to keep Oswalt out of action and he has a lifetime .770 winning percentage in the second half of the season, along with a 2.89 ERA.

Howie Kendrick – He has yet to play 100 games in the majors in any season but the one thing Kendrick can do is hit. In his three previous seasons with the Angels, he has posted BABIPs of .329, .382 and .362 in what adds up to 945 at-bats. This year he has a .279 BABIP. Kendrick is hitting just .239 right now but it would not be a surprise if he hit .300 for the remainder of the season. RoS ZiPS has him hitting .294 over 201 at-bats.

Tim Stauffer – The fourth pick of the 2003 draft, Stauffer had his development stunted by a torn labrum that required surgery and caused him to miss the entire 2008 season. But Stauffer pitched very well in 12 games at Double-A and four starts in Triple-A this year. He made his 2009 major league debut right before the break and struck out seven in seven innings versus the Giants. Stauffer is someone that fantasy owners should pick up and see if he can keep it going. Getting to pitch half his games in Petco Park will certainly help.

Gerardo Parra – The National League Rookie of the Month in May, Parra has carved out a full-time role, alternating between left and center field. With former Diamondbacks Director of Player Development A.J. Hinch taking over as the team’s manager, Parra has been given the opportunity to develop at the major league level. In 52 games, Parra has a .284 AVG and 30 runs scored. He is even more valuable in leagues with daily transactions, as he has an .855 OPS versus RHP.

Exchange

Evan Longoria – In the first 30 games of the season, Longoria was one of the top three fantasy players in the game. He posted a .367-11-44-27-2 line. In the ensuing 54 games, his line reads: 234-6-22-21-0, which places him significantly lower than top three. Unfortunately, a finger injury is keeping Longoria out of the All-Star game, but it does not figure to be a long-term issue. The public loves Longoria and if someone is willing to trade first-round talent for him, it is time to pull the trigger. This is by no means a dump candidate but someone who you try to maximize his name value.

Tommy Hanson – He seemingly has the world on a string with a 4-0 record and a 2.85 ERA. But a quick look at his peripherals shows a player who has really been the beneficiary of some good fortune. Hanson sports a .236 BABIP, an 85.4 percent strand rate and a 1.10 HR/9 despite allowing a 46 percent fly ball percentage. It all adds up to a 5.04 FIP. A key indicator for Hanson will be his K/BB ratio in the second half. In Triple-A this year he had a 5.29 mark while so far in the majors it checks in at only 1.25.

Jeff Francoeur – Atlanta’s golden boy now finds himself in the media capital of the world. Francoeur’s career with the Mets is off to a great start with back-to-back two-hit games. But Francoeur is simply not a good fantasy player. The only times he was useful in AVG was when his BABIP was over .340; it now sits at .287 for the year. The swing that produced 29 HR in 2006 appears gone, as his dismal .102 ISO indicates. And the 105-RBI season came thanks to a season when he came to the plate 319 times with runners on base, including 257 times with runners in scoring position.

J.A. Happ – Like Hanson, Happ has great fantasy numbers with questionable peripherals. He sports a 6-0 record with a 2.90 ERA. But his BABIP is .242 and he has an 85.9 percent strand rate. Happ struggled with his slider last year and has ditched that for more fastballs and cutters. It is a shift that has worked very well so far but it is not likely to remain so rosy the rest of the season.

Franklin Gutierrez – When the Mariners acquired him from Cleveland in the off-season, everyone raved about what a fine defensive outfielder Seattle was getting. And he has been just as good as advertised in the field. But it is at the plate where Gutierrez has really turned heads. He has 10 HR at the All-Star break after hitting just eight last year and his AVG is 47 points higher than a year ago. A .348 BABIP helps explain the average while his HR/FB rate is over twice where it was a season ago.