Archive for Ted Lilly

Recently, reader Pat left a comment on an article, asking:

“Can’t alot of pitchers HR/FB rates be expected to increase in the second half just due to the weather? … [T]herefore it would seem like a good strategy in a points league to stack pitching in the first half (and then look to make moves around the allstar break to acquire hitters).”

The reasoning here is that since bats tend to heat up as the weather gets warmer, hoard pitching early and then pick up hitters when the season is in full swing and 80 and 90 degree days are the norm.

Seems like a reasonable strategy, but would it work?

Since we would hoard pitchers early, let’s look at the top 20 starting pitchers, as determined by the final dollar values from the RotoTimes Player Rater, and check out their monthly HR and HR/FB data.

If HR prevention is the goal of this strategy, 16 of our 20 top pitchers had a HR/FB rate less than 11 percent in the final month of the season. Even August, the month last year where more HR by far were hit than any other, saw eight of our 20 pitchers have a HR/FB rate beneath 11 percent.

And this does not even take into account that the pitchers who were ranked top 20 at the beginning of the year often are nowhere to be found near the top of the leaderboard at the conclusion of the year. Using my friend Troy Patterson’s 2009 Starting Pitcher Rankings, here are the ones that did not make the top 20 at the end of the year:

Johan Santana (1), Brandon Webb (4), Jake Peavy (5), Cole Hamels (8), James Shields (10), Roy Oswalt (11), Ervin Santana (13), John Lackey (14), AJ Burnett (15), Edinson Volquez (16), Scott Kazmir (17), Carlos Zambrano (18), Chad Billingsley (19) and Daisuke Matsuzaka (20).

If you went into your draft convinced to load up on pitching, you could have wound up with a staff of Santana, Webb, Peavy, Hamels, Oswalt, Lackey and Burnett and at the All-Star break found other owners willing to offer you very little hitting in return.

Now, let us look at how pitchers as a whole fared in 2009. Here are the first and second half splits for all of the pitchers in MLB in 2009:

1st half – 4.32 ERA, 1.389 WHIP
2nd half – 4.33 ERA, 1.391 WHIP

It does not always work out this close, but this is yet another example of how easy this strategy could go awry.

Finally, you also have to consider how your league will handle trading with you when you have such an obvious need for hitters. Will your league-mates be willing to help you out and offer fair or even somewhat reasonable trades given how needy you are for offense? In friendly leagues that might not be a problem but it would likely be a bigger issue the more competitive your league is.

The best pitchers can dominate (or like Rodriguez in June – get lit up) at any point in the season. Stacking up on pitching only to turn around and deal it for hitting at the All-Star break seems like the fantasy baseball equivalent of market timing and not the best way to ensure long-term success.

Here is the latest update to Week 16 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

CHC – Lilly
PHI – Blanton
LAD – Schmidt
NYY – Mitre
SD – Stauffer
MIL – Burns
FLA – VandenHurk
KC – Ponson

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

WSX – Danks
KC – Meche
PHI – Moyer
LAD – Weaver
SD – Banks

Lilly is seventh in the majors with a 4.21 K/BB ratio. He has always been a good strikeout pitcher but this season he has a BB/9 ratio under two for the first time in his career. Still, Lilly has been lucky with his 80.4 percent strand rate, which has led to a FIP 64 points above his ERA.

Blanton’s ERA stood at 7.11 after eight starts this season. Since then, he has a 4-1 record with a 2.44 ERA and 54 strikeouts in 59 innings. Seven of his last nine games have been Quality Starts.

Schmidt is poised to make his first start in the majors since June 16, 2007. He has been out since then due to shoulder problems. Schmidt make eight rehab appearances in the minors and was 2-0 with a 4.18 ERA at Triple-A Albuquerque, where he fanned 25 batters in 32.1 innings.

Mitre was 3-1 in seven starts at Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre. He had 35 strikeouts and five walks in 45 innings. Mitre, who pitched for the Cubs and Marlins, has not appeared in the majors since September of 2007.

Stauffer seeks to follow up his fine 2009 major league debut and the schedule maker has given him a favorable week, with a home game against Florida and a road tilt versus Washington.

Burns has a very nice 2.71 K/BB ratio but all of his other numbers are shaky. Fewer than 30 percent of his batted balls are grounders and he has an ugly 2.08 HR/9 mark.

VandenHurk opened the season on the 60-day disabled list with elbow soreness. The 6’5 righty was 4-1 with 2.71 ERA at Triple-A. New Orleans is one of the best pitchers parks in the PCL and VandenHurk was 3-0 with 1.82 ERA at home compared to 1-1 with a 3.75 ERA on the road.

Ponson still averages 91.6 with his fastball. And he is still nowhere close to a relevant fantasy option. In 11 games with the Royals this year, he has a 7.27 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP.

Hopefully you were able to pick up John Danks and trade Bobby Abreu last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Lance Berkman – It has been a disappointing season for Berkman so far, as he has failed to keep pace with last year in four of the five fantasy categories. Surprisingly, HR is the one category he is currently outperforming last year, as he has both a slightly higher FB rate and HR/FB mark than in 2008. It was unrealistic to expect him to match last year’s career best in SB and R. But his AVG and RBI numbers have been disappointing. But Berkman has just a .248 BABIP (he’s never been below .303 since becoming a full-time player). The past two years Berkman has been a different player before and after the All-Star break. There is a strong possibility we will see that play out for a third straight season as he should experience regression with his BABIP, leading to a better average and more R and RBI.

Cole Hamels – Few imagined that Hamels would be sitting with just four wins and a 4.24 ERA after 13 games but that is where we are. However, Hamels has Quality Starts in three of his last four outings. His K/9 and BB/9 are both improved over last year. Hamels has been dinged by the long ball and is suffering from a .355 BABIP. His FIP is slightly lower than it was last season and is 60 points lower than his current ERA. RoS ZiPS sees him getting eight wins and a 3.60 ERA from here on out, making him a nice buy candidate.

Vernon Wells – Coming into the season the big question with Wells was could he stay healthy. So far, the answer has been yes. But while he’s been a regular in the lineup, his production has been a disappointment. Wells has been hitting for neither AVG nor power. His FB% is a normal 40.3 percent but he is hitting only 5.8 percent HR/FB, compared to a career average of 12.1 percent. Also, his BABIP checks in at just .266. Wells is finally showing signs of life with a modest six-game hitting streak, with three multi-hit games. Hopefully, this is the beginning of an extended hot streak for him.

Javier Vazquez – Year in and year out, probably no pitcher confounds those who carefully monitor statistics more than Vazquez. Currently, he has a brilliant 5.85 K/BB ratio, a 0.91 HR/9 mark, a 1.05 WHIP and a losing record. At least this year Vazquez is able to translate his fine peripherals into a good ERA. Given his history, there is no guarantee that he will get more wins from here on out, but even if he does not, Vazquez is still a fine contributor in three categories and worth investigating if his current owner is fed up with him.

Daniel Murphy – All the injuries suffered by the Mets this year have helped Murphy keep regular playing time, despite his poor start with the bat. Last year in the majors he had a .386 BABIP and a 33.3 percent LD rate. This year he has an 18.6 percent LD rate and a .265 BABIP. There is room for growth in his AVG and Murphy has displayed more HR pop this year than previously. With the uncertainty surrounding Carlos Delgado’s return, Murphy is likely to have at least another month of regular ABs for his BABIP to stabilize.

Trade

Brad Hawpe – Throughout his major league career, Hawpe has used above-average BABIP to post good AVG and solid HR numbers. This year he has a .389 BABIP and a .335 AVG, which is 47 points above his career AVG. And even with that elevated AVG, Hawpe has a career-best .276 ISO. Either Hawpe has moved into elite company or the time has come to sell high on him. I am banking on the latter.

Dan Haren – Throughout the off-season, I encouraged everyone to draft Haren. So, I feel a little bad about declaring him a trade candidate now. But he has a 0.82 WHIP (the lowest mark in the majors for qualified hurlers), a .238 BABIP (again, the lowest mark in the majors for qualified hurlers) and an 86 percent strand rate (the second-best mark). Haren should remain an elite pitcher the rest of the season but his trade value will probably never be higher.

Adrian Gonzalez – According to ESPN, Gonzalez is on a pace for 55 HR this season. If he keeps that up it would be a mistake to trade him. But Gonzalez has a HR/FB rate of 29.5 percent, which dwarfs last year’s career-best 20.7 percent. Also, his .326 ISO is 95 points above last year’s career-best mark. Here is another guy we are trying to sell at the height of his value who will nevertheless be a very productive player the rest of the season.

Ted Lilly – The past three seasons, Lilly has been very good for W and K but with his ERA and WHIP (two of the three years) dragging him down somewhat. So far this year, Lilly sits with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, both of which would be career-best marks. He has a lifetime 3.26 BB/9 mark and this year it stands at 1.96 so far. And his BABIP checks in at .256, 30 points below his career average. He is still likely to finish with 15 W and 175 K but both the ERA and WHIP figure to rise significantly the rest of the season.

Alexei Ramirez – A brutal start has dragged Ramirez’ overall numbers down but he has been hot in June with a .280 AVG and five HR so far this month. Owners were bullish on Ramirez, giving him an ADP of 70 (just a few spots behind Gonzalez). They were expecting him to build on last year’s numbers but instead Updated ZiPS has him merely repeating or falling short of last year’s fantasy output. Use his hot June to sell now and minimize the damage.