It has not been easy to predict who will get the Red Sox’s next save on any given day, but with 20-20 hindsight, there has usually been a clear logic to Alex Cora’s bullpen usage decisions. I will fully admit, though, that I am lacking for a convincing explanation as to why he had Matt Barnes pitch the eighth inning with an 8-2 lead against the Yankees on Sunday night.

Perhaps Barnes needed to get some work in? Not likely, as he, Brandon Workman and Marcus Walden all pitched with the Red Sox trailing on Saturday after not having been used in four days. Maybe Cora was being extra cautious with a tough part of the Yankees’ lineup coming up? That’s more likely, as the 1-2-3 hitters — DJ LeMahieu, Luke Voit and Gary Sanchez kicked off the Yankees’ portion of the inning. Barnes allowed each of them to reach base, and then LeMahieu scored on a balk. Voit and Sanchez would eventually score, too, whittling the Red Sox’s lead down to three runs.
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Although it’s never assured, it appears Anthony Bass assumed the role of interim closer in Seattle until Hunter Strickland returns. Of course, with the Mariners only winning seven games in May, it may not be a booming position to hold. Pressed into duty in the eighth inning with the bases loaded, Bass induced an out to left field by Jonathan Lucroy. Bass then returned for the ninth retiring the side in order with two strikeouts for his first save this season, the fourth of his career and first since 2014. Since joining Seattle, Bass owns six strikeouts, with no walks, a 1.47 ERA and 0.63 WHIP in five outings spanning 6.1 innings. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m bending the rules a bit to include Taylor Rogers in our Half Season Heroes series. He spent all of 2018 in the Twins’ bullpen, appearing in 72 games and tossing 68.1 innings. However, he wasn’t really the same pitcher he was in August that he was in April. Rogers did not start throwing a slider until May 31, and two-and-a-half months later, his curveball went from good to nearly unhittable. While Rogers was still a work in progress around the time of the All-Star break, fairly early on in the second half, he had transformed into a dominant reliever — arguably the most dominant reliever in the majors. It’s this version of the lefty who will be the focus of this column.
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Although most of the focus within this column caters to the saves chasers, with just over a week remaining in the season, teams will need to protect ratios as well. Owners of Josh Hader realize this through the value he provides in strikeouts and his ERA which dropped below two last night along with his 0.74 WHIP in 77 innings this season. Hader’s been a heater but his consecutive strikeout streak ended on Friday when Colin Moran lifted a pop fly to left field caught by Christian Yelich. However, Hader recorded 16 straight outs via strikeout over five outings to set a major league record. He also set a record for all southpaw relievers for strikeouts in a season with 136 so far with a chance to add to this in Milwaukee’s last eight contests. In September, Hader’s registered a strikeout minus walk percentage of 60, produced a 24.2 swinging strike percentage and allowed only 54.4 contact through 10 innings with a ridiculous 23:2 K:BB with a 0.50 WHIP. A different southpaw remains on the waiver wire in many leagues due to his lack of saves production, but Taylor Rogers extended his scoreless streak to 23.1 innings in Oakland last night. Since July 30th, spanning 25 games, Rogers has faced 80 hitters giving up only nine hits and three walks with 27 strikeouts. Yes, saves matter, but so do southpaws like these two who can ratio erasers to preserve spots in the standings. Read the rest of this entry »

Adam Conley did not have a save opportunity on Sunday against the Phillies, but nonetheless, I have moved him to the head of the Marlins’ closer committee in the grid. Don Mattingly, like many managers, will sometimes use his closer with a four-run lead in the ninth inning, and that’s what he did on Sunday. With a 6-2 lead, Conley retired the first two batters, but he allowed a hard-hit Aaron Altherr double followed by Roman Quinn’s RBI single. The lefty could have limited the damage to the lone run if Starlin Castro had not been eaten up by a Cesar Hernandez grounder, but the error allowed the Phillies to cut the lead to 6-4. Then the rally ended when Conley struck out Rhys Hoskins.
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When Kyle Barraclough had to get bailed out to prevent him from blowing his fourth straight save on Monday, that was the last straw for Don Mattingly. On Tuesday, the Marlins’ manager announced he was removing Barraclough from the closer’s role, though his replacement “was not going to be one guy.” Drew Steckenrider, who has been used consistently as the eighth-inning setup reliever, would be a strong candidate to get the Marlins’ next save chance, though a report from MLB.com beat writer Joe Frisaro cited Adam Conley and Tayron Guerrero as candidates to close as well.
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Projecting future closers is always difficult. We can use a number of different frameworks that factor in environment, talent, pitch quality, and arsenals, and still scratch our heads marveling at how relievers are used. It’s a tricky proposition given the number of variables involved. Add to that the changing nature of bullpen roles, it’s not inconceivable, as we saw with Andrew Miller’s usage, that a progressive manager might not use his best reliever in a way that’s conducive to racking up saves.

In fantasy, saves are expensive and the inherent volatility of bullpens can make chasing them on draft day a dubious endeavor. The Chacon Zone’s goal is to identify non-closing relief aces. Those pitchers whose contributions in strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP, despite low innings totals, are significant enough to offset the lack of saves that you’d receive by rostering a closer in his place. By banking on talent, rather than simply opportunity, we can identify cheap relievers not only possessing high floors but also high ceilings should they be thrust into a ninth inning role. Think Edwin Diaz from last year. Luckily for us, the new Splits Leaderboard, provides yet another tool by which we can (attempt to) identify these pitchers. By isolating performance in high leverage situations, we can not only identify talented relievers but those whose managers entrust them in the most pivotal moments.

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