Archive for stephen strasburg

When the FanGraphs meet-up took place in San Francisco on Tuesday night and the group was sitting around the TV hanging on each and every pitch thrown by Stephen Strasburg, inspiration hit for today’s Would You Rather column.  Proven talent versus monumental upside.  Seasoned veteran versus young upstart.  Future Hall of Famer versus….future Hall of Famer?  There are a lot of pros on each side and very few cons.  So if it were up to you…

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– Happy Stephen Strasburg day, everyone. Strasburg is set to pitch tonight’s Nationals-Dodgers affair against Ted Lilly. Could there be a bigger difference in pitchers in a single game? This author thinks not. While we don’t have a definite pitch count for Strasburg, the righty threw seventy pitches in his final rehab outing, so it’s probably safe to assume he’ll sit around the same mark during his first major league start of 2011.

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There are all kinds of little injury-related news that I’d like to get to, and today feels like a good day to do just that:

– While Tommy Hanson may say his shoulder is fine, a mere nine-pitch bullpen session begs to differ. Sure, he can say that he intended to throw a short session all along, but nine pitches just feels really abrupt. Also, wouldn’t you at least throw ten instead of stopping at nine? Color me skeptical, but Hanson is still on pace to get a rehab start in this weekend. As a Hanson owner, let’s hope this latest respite heals him up enough to finish the season strong.

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Today marks the second day of a new feature we will be trying out here at RotoGraphs. In an attempt to keep you, the fantastical reader, informed, we will be looking at some of the stories around baseball that have an effect on your fantasy team. Because this piece is ultimately being read by you, your opinion is requested. Please chime in using the comments and let us know what you would like to see from this piece.

– Stephen Strasburg, the phenom to end all phenoms, will begin a minor league rehab assignment sometime next week. The Washington Nationals ace has come back quickly from Tommy John surgery, and while some of his owners would prefer him to take it easy and wait until 2012 to return, getting a taste of big league action in 2011 will be good for the Nationals organization. As long as he’s not being rushed back, Strasburg pitching this season shouldn’t be a problem for his long-term development. If you’re in a standard redraft league, don’t worry about picking The Monument up, though.

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Stephen Strasburg, Nationals

Yeah, I know — kinda obvious. But Strasburg’s first two big league starts are well worth discussing. The hoopla surrounding the San Diego State Aztec reached mythical proportions typically reserved for the likes of Big Foot, Chupacabra and Loch Ness, but Strasburg has been highly impressive.

The 21-year-old righty ripped apart minor league batters before getting the call — in 55.1 IP between Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Syracuse, he had 10.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a FIP slightly above two. When opponents weren’t whiffing, they were hitting weak grounders (Strasburg’s GB% was 64.9). While his second MLB start against Cleveland proved that he is, in fact a sentient being capable of error, Strasburg has a 22/5 K/BB ratio in 12.1 frames so far.

He’s sitting 98 with the four-seamer, 96 with the two-seamer and also features a low-80’s curve with two-plane break and a 90-91 MPH change that drops seven inches more than his four-seamer (4-4.5 inch big league average). His swinging strike rate is 15.3. There’s not much else to say, other than Strasburg really is worthy of the attention that he receives.

Colby Rasmus, Cardinals

Rasmus, 23, has followed up a quality rookie season with a great leap forward at the plate. In 219 PA, he’s hitting .293/.399/.582, with a .414 wOBA that ranks in the top 10 among MLB hitters. Clearly, Rasmus won’t keep up this pace. He’s benefitting from some fortunate bounces, with a .375 BABIP that’s well ahead of his .319 expected BABIP. But even so, he’s working the count and crushing the ball.

Swinging at 23.3 percent of pitches out of the zone (28.1% MLB average), Rasmus is drawing ball four in 14.6% of his PA. His Isolated Power, .156 last season, is .288 in 2010. All of that taking and raking has come with more swings and misses (33.2 K%, compared to 20% in ’09), but it’s a trade well worth making. Rasmus likely won’t keep hitting homers nearly 21 percent of the time that he lofts a fly ball into the air — ZiPS projects a .266/.342/.447 line for the rest of 2010, and CHONE a .259/.339/.442 triple-slash. I’d take the over on those forecasts, however.

Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays

Definitively a starter with Toronto after years of role-related drama in Seattle, Morrow has been considerably better than his ERA (5.14) implies. He’s got 10.29 K/9, 4.89 BB/9 and a 3.99 xFIP in 70 innings pitched. Morrow still struggles to find the strike zone at times — his first pitch strike percentage is 53.8 (58.3% MLB average) — but he’s missing lumber at an elite rate.

With an 11 percent swinging strike rate, Morrow ranks in the top 10 among qualified starters (the MLB average is 8.2%). His contact rate of 74.4% is well above the 81.1% big league average and places behind just Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum and teammate Ricky Romero. The whiff rates on Morrow’s 94 MPH four-seam fastball and upper-80’s slider are stratospheric — 10.6% for the four-seamer (6% MLB average) and 26.7% for the slider (13.6% MLB average). This guy’s probably still available on the waiver wire, too, as Morrow’s owned in just 15% of Yahoo leagues.

Rick Porcello, Tigers

Porcello’s 21, and his career could take any number of paths over the coming years. But he hasn’t made progress during his sophomore season. The New Jersey prep product is punching out fewer batters this year than in 2009 (4.02 K/9, compared to 4.69 K/9), with a few more walks (2.91 BB/9, 2.74 BB/9 in ’09) and a lower ground ball rate (48.8 GB%, 54.2 GB% in ’09). No, he hasn’t been six-plus ERA bad — his BABIP (.350) and strand rate (61.6%) will regress toward the mean — but Porcello’s xFIP has climbed to 5.14 in 2010 after coming in at 4.32 in 2009.

At this point, Porcello basically has one pitch going for him: a 90 MPH sinker that he throws for strikes and uses to get grounders. Everything else is a work in progress. His four-seamer, thrown a couple ticks quicker, has a decent whiff rate, but Porcello struggles to locate it. Hitters lay off his lackluster breaking and off-speed stuff:

Having thrown all of 125 innings in the minors, Porcello is learning on the job. And he’s still got a ways to go.

Chase Headley, Padres

A full-time third baseman after spending the better part of the past two seasons in left field, Headley is flashing the leather — he has a +8.1 UZR/150 at 3B. His bat lags behind, however.

It seems like the switch-hitter might be trying to make more contact, to the detriment of his power and overall offensive performance. During his rookie season in ’07, Headley struck out 31.4%, with a 72.7 Contact%. Last year, he whiffed 24.5% and made contact 77.8%, and this season he’s punching out 20% with an 81 Contact%. His ISO over that time frame has dipped from .151 to .131 to .093. Headley’s wOBA has declined three years running as well, going from .334 in 2008 to .328 last year to .305 in 2010.

Considering that he’s not drawing many walks this year (5.7 BB%) while just blooping some singles, it’s not surprising that Headley’s offense has been below-average even after accounting for cavernous Petco Park — his wRC+ is 95.

Chris Tillman, Orioles

Tillman, 22, has fantastic long-term potential. He was ranked as a top 100 prospect by Baseball America prior to the 2008 and 2009 seasons, and he has 8.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a FIP around three in 154.1 innings at the Triple-A level over the past two years. Past scouting reports lauded his low-90’s heat (peaking around 94 MPH) and above-average curveball, delivered from a lanky 6-5 frame.

In the majors, however, Tillman’s stuff hasn’t looked as sharp. Tossing 15 innings for the O’s this year, Tillman has a 7/8 K/BB ratio, with 15 runs surrendered. His average fastball velocity is slightly under 91 MPH. In 80 combined IP over the past two years, Tillman has 5.18 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 5.31 xFIP. Both his four-seam fastball and curve have below-average whiff rates in the bigs so far (4.6% and 7.5%, respectively), which helps explain the lack of K’s. As an extreme fly ball pitcher (36.5 GB% in the majors, 39.7 GB% in the minors), Tillman needs to miss more bats and display sharper control. There’s nothing alarming here long-term, but Baltimore could send him back to Triple-A to work out the kinks.

Here is the latest update to Week 10 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

KCR – Zack Greinke
CHC – Carlos Silva
WAS – Stephen Strasburg
LAD – Hiroki Kuroda
BAL – Kevin Millwood
TOR – Brian Tallet
HOU – Brian Moehler
OAK – Vin Mazzaro
PIT – Jeff Karstens

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

TOR – Shaun Marcum
OAK – Brett Anderson
CHC – Randy Wells
KCR – Kyle Davies
BAL – Brad Bergesen
LAD – Carlos Monasterios

Greinke is not pitching bad but has only a 1-7 record to show for it. While few expected him to match 2009’s output, neither did they expect a 3.60 ERA or a 4.27 xFIP. Still he has eight Quality Starts and a 1-3 record in those games.

Silva has more wins (7) this year than he had the past two years combined (5) with the Mariners. He is enjoying a career-high 6.29 K/9 and a career-low 1.10 WHIP. A 77.7 strand rate has led to a higher FIP but even that is a very nice 3.86, which is nearly identical to his xFIP.

Strasburg makes his long-awaited major league debut versus the Pirates and he already finds himself active in 61 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Strasburg went 7-2 with a 1.30 ERA in 11 minor league starts split between Double and Triple-A. He allowed 13 BB and notched 65 Ks in 55.1 IP.

Kuroda has allowed 11 R (8 ER) in his last 10 IP. Yet his ERA is virtually the same as it was his first two seasons in the U.S. The big difference is his WHIP. In 2010 Kuroda sports a 1.40 WHIP compared to 1.22 and 1.14 his first two seasons with the Dodgers.

Millwood has pitched better than his 0-6 record might lead you to believe. He has struggled with the gopher ball in his new home park in Camden Yards. Millwood has surrendered 9 HR at home compared to 5 HR on the road. But his home ERA is 3.28 and on the road he has a 5.11 ERA. This week he has home starts against the Yankees and Mets.

Tallet is back after missing six weeks with an injured forearm. His first start back he pitched 5.2 scoreless innings after posting a 6.11 ERA in his first three starts before hitting the DL.

Moehler is in his 14th season in the majors. He has appeared in 14 games this year with the Astros but has made just two starts. After getting roughed up in his first outing, in which he allowed 3 HR in 2.2 IP, Moehler allowed 2 ER in 5.1 IP last time out against the Nationals. This week he gets road starts against the Rockies and the Yankees.

Mazzaro has pitched out of the bullpen in his last three games but gets the call to start after picking up a win in his last relief outing. He has been homer prone, with a 19.0 HR/FB ratio in 2010. He faces the Angels and Giants, with the Angels being a good HR hitting team.

Karstens has appeared in 10 games and made four starts for the Pirates this year. He is 1-1 with a 3.80 ERA as a starter compared to 0-0 with a 5.65 ERA pitching out of the pen. His K/9 rate is similar in both roles but Karstens has displayed much better control as a reliever. He has a 1.40 K/BB ratio as a starter and a 2.67 ratio as a reliever.

The Washington Nationals organization announced today that top 2009 draft picks Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen will both begin the year in double-A. Strasburg is considered the future face of the organization (if he isn’t already) and a sure-fire No. 1 starter, while Storen is considered the club’s closer of the future.

So what does this news mean to fantasy baseball managers?

Most importantly, it means that you’re going to have to be patient. The former San Diego State hurler was the club’s most dominating starter this spring but it was a smart decision from a business perspective, as well as a player development angle. Why rush him? The club is not going to win in 2010… so it’s going to try to keep him around (and cost controlled) for as long as possible.

From a fan perspective, it means more pitching mediocrity for the Nationals rotation. The motley crew is likely to include Garrett Mock, John Lannan, Jason Marquis, Scott Olsen, and J.D. Martin. There are a couple of names there for deep NL-only leagues, but the pickings are slim in mixed leagues.

Strasburg is probably not going to be in the minors long, based on how he looked this spring (and in the Arizona Fall League). He’ll likely be up by June at the latest, which means you need to keep yourself in a favorable waiver situation in your league for when the inevitable call comes. Once he’s up, Strasburg could very well pitch at the level of a Top 15 starter. He could be the exact type of waiver wire player that helps push a fantasy team over the hump in the second half of the season. The one downside to keep in mind, though, is that he’s playing for the Nationals (and the club is likely to monitor his innings) so the wins could be hard to come by.

As for Storen, young closers are quite volatile. They tend to burn out quickly. I also have some concerns over the right-hander’s current lack control issues (three walks in five spring innings, 4.38 BB/9 in 10 double-A games in ’09) so he may not be a reliable closer option for another few seasons. In the meantime, fantasy managers in need of saves will want to keep an eye on Matt Capps and Brian Bruney in Washington. Capps is the early favorite for saves, but he’s struggled this spring. On a team that does not project to score a lot of runs, the eventual closer could have plenty of save opportunities when the club takes a lead into the ninth inning.