Archive for splits

Last week, I recommended an improvement for expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) without dismantling the original FIP framework upon which it was built. FIP describes the relationship between ERA and strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed; xFIP does the same but attempts to remove the luck component from home runs by multiplying the number of fly balls a pitcher allows by the league-average rate of home runs to fly balls (HR/FB) — the rationale being HR/FB is notoriously fickle to project year to year.

The recommendation: change HR/FB to include line drives (LDs) and exclude infield fly balls (IFFBs, aka pop-ups). It’s worth noting our dark overlord David Appelman once explained how removing pop-ups from aggregate fly balls insignificantly affects xFIP. Additionally, less than 1% of line drives result in home runs. The recommendation, then, seems like the merging of two separate but equally fruitless endeavors, given the facts.

Yet changing the HR/FB component in xFIP to be “HR/(oFB + LD)” substantially improved the metric’s correlation with same-year ERA. Adjusted r², which measure the strength of relationship from 0 to 1, increased from 0.42 to 0.55 using Statcast data (0.44 to 0.53 using FanGraphs data). I hypothesize that, when added to fly balls, line drives (despite resulting in very few home runs) give a more holistic indication of the average contact quality and launch angle a pitcher allows.

Today’s recommendation: account for start/relief splits.

Although I thought of this independently, the idea itself is far from an original one. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, FanGraphs made public its splits leaderboard, which the authors have been able to test and refine in private for some time now. It’s an incredible tool. If you haven’t checked it out, you should. If you haven’t thanked Sean Dolinar for building it, you should. (If you have any preliminary feedback, leave it in the comments and I’ll pass it along.)

There are a seemingly infinite number of ways to cross-cut data in endlessly fascinating ways. Splits by handedness, situation by outs, situation by leverage, situation by defensive alignment (shift or no shift!) — the list goes on. But the thing that most interested me immediately was understanding the implications of more granular batted ball data.

Two tools I once refined/created — xBABIP and xISO — rely almost exclusively on Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) batted ball data. Yet they were limited in their capabilities because of the limited nature of the data: we knew each hitter’s contact quality (hard/medium/pull) and contact direction (pull/center/oppo) but now how the trios intersected. But, ah, the splits leaderboard.

The following tables depict the batting average on balls in play (BABIP), isolated power (ISO), and home runs per fly ball (HR/FB) in 2016 by each cross-section. Read the rest of this entry »

When I decided to write this post, I already knew I would investigate which pitchers experience the largest platoon splits. I know this kind of information is helpful for daily fantasy sports (DFS), and I had yet to see someone undertake this task, although perhaps I wasn’t looking hard enough. I would take a relatively simply metric, sure to ruffle the feathers of the nitpicky, and compare its magnitude against lefties to its magnitude against righties for all pitchers. The largest differences between the two rates would warrant my attention. So, too, would the smallest. (Indeed, the absolute smallest would.)

However, I got distracted, as I am wont to do. I walk into a grocery store needing bread and milk and leave with paneer, sprouted tortillas, maple bacon Kettle chips and a 32-ounce bottle of sriracha. Really, I get distracted every time I sit down to write, and I rarely write the piece I originally intended to. My point: I get distracted by things.

Things like Chris Archer, who seems to be the Major League Baseball equivalent of the The Most Interesting Man on Earth.

Read the rest of this entry »

Agenda

1. Wacha Worries
2. Daily DFS – Whitley, Chen(s), Hughes
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Buchholz, Vargas Young, Krush, Aybar
5. Factor Grid

Read the rest of this entry »

As my first RotoGraphs post, I dwelled way too long on this title: Coresistency Dickerson? Too corny. Corey Dickersplits? Too dirty. In any case, you can see from any of these titles where I’m going.

As the season winds down, I’m in trade mode, and I keep finding myself in trade discussions with Corey Dickerson owners. I am a win-now type of guy and therefore am all-in on trading prospects for sure-things when it comes to dynasty/keeper leagues. Dickerson was in an interesting boat for me: Do I buy? In the one league I have him, do I sell? While I would love to see him in front of or behind Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki and Nolan Arenado on a more consistent basis (he’s full-time now, but the trio is rarely healthy), his Splits Page has me convinced.

Usually I stroll down the splits page and get excited by some segments and turned off by others, but I was satisfied throughout…

Read the rest of this entry »

My best friend is an Atlanta Braves fan. He was born and raised in Puerto Rico and since TBS broadcasted games, that became his team. He’s stuck with them now as we are both into our 40’s, but after the Marlins shellacked Alex Wood 9-0, he sent me a text overnight – “Marlins are stealing signs at home, I’m convinced of it.”

Read the rest of this entry »

Hank Blalock is really good…when he plays at home.

In his career, Blalock has hit .306/.375/.531 with 77 homers in 397 games. On the road, Blalock has hit .244/.299/.402 with 50 homers in 390 games.

Fortunately for Blalock, he is currently still a member of the Texas Rangers. Although the Rangers have many corner types, Blalock appears to be in line for a lot of plate appearances, probably at first base (assuming Chris Davis can handle third base). If he plays every day for the Rangers, he can probably continue to put up decent numbers – the type of numbers he has put up over the last 2-3 years (think ~.270 with ~25 homers or so). For those of you who play in leagues with daily updates, you can take advantage of Blalock’s drastic splits, benching him for road games but making sure that he’s in your lineup for all games in Arlington (this could work in leagues with weekly updates too, but it won’t work nearly as well).

However, Blalock’s numbers have been artificially inflated by his home park, and if he is traded his overall (and fantasy) numbers will suffer. While he may not be as bad as his road numbers indicate (after all, most players play slightly worse on the road, and his road numbers don’t take into account any games in Arlington), his overall numbers will suffer significantly if he’s traded to, say, Minnesota (or just about anywhere else, really).

In my experience, Hank Blalock’s reputation exceeds Hank Blalock’s production. Back in 2004, Blalock hit 32 homers; since then, he’s hit 63 homers total. Blalock was the Next Big Thing after his 04 season, but he simply hasn’t lived up to his reputation, and he’s had plenty of opportunities to do so. While I will admit that Blalock has some upside, he’s so far removed from his excellent 2004 season and simply hasn’t shown any improvement (let alone any ability to replicate his 04 season). That, combined with his drastic home/road splits, makes me very wary.

Again, that’s not to say that Hank Blalock is without value – that’s simply untrue. The key is his perceived value – is he perceived as being more valuable than, say, Paul Konerko? Or Conor Jackson? Or Carlos Pena? I’d much rather have those three than Blalock, but some others in your league may disagree.

Don’t be afraid to have Blalock on your team. Just make sure you value him appropriately and don’t draft him too early.