Archive for Scott Hairston

Maybe it’s just the optimism that spring brings, but I’m starting to believe the Cubs could have some surprises in them this year. Between two young infield stars, an improving starting rotation, and a surprisingly adequate outfield, Chicago should take nice steps away from last year’s dumpster fire as Theo Epstein & Jed Hoyer continue their rebuilding project. Is that enough to get them into the playoff race? Probably not, but nor should one expect another 101-loss disaster.

Let’s dive deeper into that outfield, where despite numerous efforts to move him, Alfonso Soriano remains the incumbent in left field. (This is me praying the Yankees don’t trade for him to help replace Curtis Granderson before this post goes live.) Soriano has long been saddled by the massive contract that looked foolish from the day he signed it prior to 2007, but that has been somewhat of an unfair burden on him. Soriano has been good-to-very-good in four of the six years he’s been a Cub, and while lousy campaigns in 2009 & 2011 don’t help, he’s averaged 3.3 WAR/year with the team. If not worth the contract, he’s at least been a valuable contributor. Read the rest of this entry »

Man, moving into an old house is hard. Every little thing opens up into eight million other things you gotta do. Bah. But you don’t want to hear me whine, you want the waiver wire dirt. So here are a coupla outfielders that could do you good. (Yeah, grammar goes out the window when you are this exhausted.)

Tony Gwynn, Jr, Padres (1% owned)
Gwynn is no unqualified get – they rarely are at this stage of ownership – but he does have some things going for him. For one, it looks like he’s the best outfield defender on his team, going by his double-digit career UZR/150 in center compared to Scott Hairston’s single-digit number. He also can take a walk – his current 13.3% walk rate is second on the team in fact. Last, his current BABIP is so low that he figured highly on Goleblahblah’s xBABIP – BABIP list just the other day. A man that fast should not have a .255 BABIP. As the dinks and dunks fall in, he’ll be able to pair a passable batting average with good speed. With contact rates like he has (96.5% in the zone, 91.6% overall), he could even put up a good batting average. Of course, the rub is that he’s in a crowded outfield. Apologies to Oscar Salazar and Luis Durango, though, Gwynn is, at the very least, in the top four. Will Venable has some strikeout issues (that weren’t this bad in the minor leagues), and Aaron Cunnigham is finally showing something in the major leagues (but could take a walk here or there), so along with Hairston, the Pads have cobbled together a passable outfield. Some days, possibly against lefties (Gwynn had a lower OPS versus lefties in the minors), Hairston will play center field. The rest of the time, it will probably be Gwynn out there, so deeper leagues should look to Gwynn for steals.

Domonic Brown, Phillies (2% owned)
Rumors are rumors, but the newest rumors have Jayson Werth headed to Tampa. The Rays don’t seemingly go for Werth’s type usually (read: big-time in-season acquisition), but his contract expires at season’s end, and at $7.5 million is not onerous. For all the talk that Werth is somehow slumping, his slash line (.280/.371/.502) and wOBA (.376) are almost identical to last year’s (.268/.372/.506; .382). He’s not slumping. Yes, his ISO is a little down (.238 to .222), but it’s closer to his career numbers. So Werth is more probably the 2008 Werth than the 2009 Werth, but would anyone complain about a 20/20 outfielder either? Anyway, back to Brown. He was good enough to make our top 50 trade value list (at #50) and was named the number one Phillies prospect by maven Marc Hulet. We’ll allow space for a longer article concerning Brown (he seems to deserve it), but he’s 22, hitting .328/.389/.592 in Double-A and Triple-A combined this year, with speed (86 stolen bases in 416 minor league games at a 72% success rate) and power (.166 career ISO, with a full-season peak of .214). Let’s just call this a wake-up call for those in deeper leagues. There might be a nice prospect on the way.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Mike Aviles, Kansas City Royals (owned in 7% of Yahoo! leagues)

In 592 lifetime PA in the majors, Aviles has a .298-13-61-83-9 fantasy line which is outstanding production for a guy to slot in your MI position. Of course, the problem is that Aviles toils for the Royals, who think he fits in behind both Yuniesky Betancourt and Chris Getz in the pecking order and sent him to the minors early in the year. But Aviles has started five of the past six games (and pinch-hit in the other). Eventually talent wins out so expect Aviles to log more playing time than either of those inferior players for the remainder of the season.

Scott Hairston, San Diego Padres (owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues)

Despite his great production for half a season for the Padres in 2009, Hairston opened the year as a platoon player and was in the lesser half as the right-handed part of the time share with Tony Gwynn Jr. But he has started 10 games since April 28th and has a .294 AVG with 4 HR in that span. RoS ZiPS gives him 14 HR in 337 ABs. If he can stay healthy, Hairston has a chance to exceed that playing time prediction. He can offer a nice power/speed combo but Hairston will need to cut back on his strikeouts, which currently sits at a 35.8 K%, if he wants to improve on his .254 AVG.

Scott Olsen, Washington Nationals (owned in 5% of Yahoo! leagues)

After getting lit up in his first two outings of the season, Olsen is 2-0 in his last three starts, with a 0.44 ERA. Additionally, he has 5 BB and 20 Ks in 20.1 IP in that stretch. Olsen has a little extra zip on his fastball this year, with his average velocity of 89.2 mph a full 1.2 mph higher than it was a year ago. That, along with throwing his fastball less often, has helped make a very poor pitch in 2009 (-17.8 wFB) one that is almost league average (-1.4 wFB) this year. Olsen has been throwing both his slider and change more often in 2010. His slider is a very good pitch and his change is now a plus offering.

Oakland Athletics acquired 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff and 2B Eric Sogard from the San Diego Padres for OFs Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham.

Kouzmanoff’s arrival means that Eric Chavez and Jake Fox have little chance of seeing time at the hot corner. Of course, Chavez has scarcely played over the past two seasons while suffering through back, shoulder and elbow injuries, while Fox probably shouldn’t go anywhere near a glove. Dallas McPherson, who combines Chavez’s durability with Fox’s minor league feats of strength, also loses out here.

The 28 year-old Kouzmanoff is under team control for the next three seasons. He’s a decent defender at third, but what about his bat?

Kouzmanoff is extremely aggressive at the dish, having drawn a free pass in just 4.9 percent of his plate appearances in the majors. His outside swing percentage was 31.3 last season, and sits at 32.3% in the big leagues (25 percent MLB average).

The former Indians prospect puts a charge into the ball, however, with a career .174 Isolated Power. Kouzmanoff has been a slightly-above hitter, once the cavernous dimensions of Petco Park are taken into account. His wRC+ is 103.

Moving out of Petco certainly won’t hurt Kouzmanoff’s value. But keep in mind that the Oakland Coliseum does a number on offensive production as well. Courtesy of the 2010 Bill James Handbook, here are the three-year park factors for Petco and the Coliseum. A park factor of 100 is neutral, while anything below 100 favors pitchers.

Petco Park, 2007-2009

Runs: 76
2B: 75
3B: 93
HR: 73
RHB HR: 86

Oakland Coliseum, 2007-2009

Runs: 91
2B: 89
3B: 96
HR: 90
RHB HR: 77

CHONE projects Kouzmanoff to bat .259/.304/.431 next season.

Sogard, 23, spent 2009 at Double-A San Antonio in the Texas League. The lefty-swinging second baseman hit .293/.370/.400 in 530 plate appearances, controlling the strike zone (11.3 BB%, 10.3 K%) but displaying little thump (.107 ISO).

San Diego’s 2nd-round pick in the 2007 draft, Sogard has a career .292/.375/.417 line in the minors. His keen eye and quality defense give him a shot to be a regular, but the presence of Adrian Cardenas and Jemile Weeks in Oakland’s system means he’ll probably end up as a utility man.

Hairston, meanwhile, returns to San Diego after a sojourn with the A’s last summer. He was swapped to Oakland in July for RHPs Sean Gallagher, Craig Italiano and Ryan Webb.

The 29 year-old Hairston is cut from the same offensive cloth as Kouzmanoff: ample pop, but few free passes. He has a career walk rate of 6.8 percent, but also a .202 ISO. His wRC+ in the majors is 100. The former Diamondbacks prospect is often banged up, however, hitting the DL with a left shoulder injury in 2005, right biceps inflammation in 2006, an oblique strain in 2007, ligament surgery on his left hand in 2008 and a left biceps strain in 2009 (injury information from the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool) CHONE forecasts a .254/.315/.448 triple-slash for Hairston in 2010. He’s under San Diego’s control through 2011.

Hairston rates as a quality defender in the outfield, and his arrival likely means that Chase Headley will transition back to third base.

Cunningham, 24 in April, has now been traded three times during his pro career. The Chicago White Sox took him in the 6th round of the 2005 draft, but shipped him to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Danny Richar in June of 2007. The D-Backs then included him in the Dan Haren deal in December of ’07.

He owns a career .309/.382/.493 line in the minor leagues. Cunningham doesn’t really excel in one particular area offensively. He possesses some power (.184 ISO), but doesn’t figure to be a massive extra-base threat in the majors. While not a total hacker, Cunningham has a mild 8.8 percent walk rate on the farm.

CHONE paints the picture of an average offensive player, as Cunningham’s 2010 projection is .263/.330/.420. His short-term role is clouded, with Kyle Blanks a 6-6, 285 pound science experiment in RF and Will Venable also figuring into San Diego’s outfield rotation. But he could work his way into more regular playing time if Hairston suffers another malady.

Hairston and Cunningham’s departures help clear Oakland’s outfield glut. Rajai Davis apparently has the left field job for the time being, but top prospect Michael Taylor figures to make his presence felt before the season is through.

The Oakland Athletics recently added to the club’s jumble of outfielders, signing free agent Coco Crisp to a one-year, $4.75 million deal. Covelli’s contract has a $5.75M club option for 2011, with a $500K buyout.

The 30 year-old switch-hitter is coming off of a 2009 season that was curtailed by injuries to both shoulders. Crisp logged just 215 plate appearances, playing his last game on June 12th. He underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder, then had a procedure to clean up some damage in his left shoulder a short time later.

Much of Coco’s value is tied up in his legs. He’s a wonderful defender, having posted a career +5.8 UZR/150 in center field and a +23.5 UZR/150 in left field. So, he figures to be a favorite among Oakland’s pitching staff. But what about his offensive game?

It’s wise not to put a lot of stock in 200-some PA, but Crisp had an odd-ball year at the plate in 2009. His .228/.336/.378 line looks weak, but he suffered from a lousy .247 BABIP (his career average is .309). Coco posted a .150 ISO (.130 career average), while drawing a walk in a career-high 13.9 percent of his plate appearances (7.7 career average).

Crisp has some interesting plate discipline trends going on. His walk rate has climbed every year since 2004. The increases from ’04 to ’06 were negligible (from 6.8 percent to 7 percent). But he walked 8.7% in 2007 and 8.8% in 2008, and took plenty of pitches with an otherwise hack-happy Royals team in ’09.

Despite those previously low walk totals, Crisp has never really been a free swinger. His career outside swing percentage is 18.8, well below the 25 percent major league average. Instead, the one-time Cardinals prospect is seeing a lesser percentage of pitches thrown within the strike zone:

Crisp’s In-Zone Percentage, 2002-2009 (MLB average that season in parentheses)

2002: 56.2 (54.6), +3% above the MLB average
2003: 56.1 (51.4), +9%
2004: 57.8 (55.1), +5%
2005: 56.1 (53.8), +4%
2006: 54.8 (52.6), +4%
2007: 51.9 (50.3), +3%
2008: 52.2 (51.1), +2%
2009: 50.9 (49.3), +3%

He’s still getting more pitches within the zone than most, but the relative difference compared to the big league average has lessened. Perhaps because of his bum shoulders, Crisp didn’t swing at much of anything in 2009. His 41.4 Swing% was his lowest mark since 2002. The average swing rate in 2009 was 45.2 percent.

Overall, Crisp has been a slightly below league-average batter during the course of his career, with a wRC+ of 97 (his offense, once adjusted for park and league, is about three percent below average).

He continued to display good wheels in ’09, swiping 13 bags in 15 attempts. Crisp notched at least 20 steals in each season from 2006 to 2008, and has nabbed bases at an 81.4% clip since ’06. Some guys swipe 20+ bags while actually harming their teams (Troy Tulowitzki is a huge asset, but Colorado might want to Super Glue his spikes to first base).

Not Crisp, though. According to Baseball Prospectus’ Equivalent Stolen Base Runs, Coco rated as +1.26 runs above average in limited action in 2009. He was -0.07 in 2008, +2.15 in 2007 and +1.34 in 2006.

Early word is that Crisp will man center field, flanked by Rajai Davis in left field and Ryan Sweeney in right field.

Davis (+11.3 UZR/150 in the OF) and Sweeney (+17.1) also possess gazelle-like range, meaning few balls should drop in the Coliseum’s outfield pasture.

However, the purported arrangement would leave Scott Hairston, an average hitter (100 wRC+) and not too shabby a fly catcher himself (+6.3 UZR/150 in the OF), without a defined role. That’s to say nothing of Aaron Cunningham, Travis Buck and the recently acquired Michael Taylor. Tough luck, Eric Patterson.

Here are the 2010 CHONE projections for Oakland’s outfield options:

Crisp: .256/.333/.373, .313 wOBA, 19 SB/5 CS
Davis: .267/.326/.372, .309 wOBA, 31 SB/11 CS
Sweeney: .280/.344/.396, .327 wOBA, 6 SB/5 CS
Hairston: .251/.307/.436, .319 wOBA, 4 SB/2 CS
Cunningham: .255/.318/.401, .314 wOBA, 10 SB/6 CS
Buck: .256/.331/.403, .322 wOBA, 4 SB/2CS
Patterson: .260/.324/.400, .317 wOBA, 24 SB/7 CS
Taylor: .264/.317/.427, .322 wOBA, 9 SB/6 CS

With plus defense and an OK bat, Crisp projects to be around a two-win player in 2010 (the fans currently peg him at +2.1 WAR). For $5.25 million in guaranteed cash, that’s a good deal in a vacuum. But the question most people have is, what does Coco add that Sweeney and Davis already don’t? Perhaps a trade is in the offing. Or, maybe the A’s just don’t want to count on Hairston or Buck’s health and want Cunningham and Taylor to log more time in the minors.

Whatever the reason, Crisp looks to be set as a starter. His speed makes him a late-round consideration in mixed leagues. Though Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill are groundball-oriented starters, Oakland’s batch of young arms looks a bit more appealing with three center field-worthy defenders patrolling the outfield.

Many fantasy leagues break the outfielders up by their respective positions, a quirk that creates a premium outfield position. Consider that, in many formats, the 12th-ranked center fielder going into the season was Chris Young, whose projections were comparable to the 12th-ranked second baseman going into the season (Rickie Weeks).

Defense then becomes a non-fantasy entity that can mean a lot to the fantasy fortunes of the center fielder. Play good defense, and you’ll buy yourself more time to figure out the batting part of the deal. Or at least, that seems to be what’s keeping Carlos Gomez playing in Minnesota. Let’s take a look at two young center fielders, how they are faring, and how defense factors into the decision.

Dexter Fowler – For a 23-year-old getting his first extended burn at the major league level, Fowler is acquitting himself reasonably well. His .264/.354/.405 slash line has a little bit of something for everyone. Walking 12.7% of the time assures that he can take advantage of his prodigious speed (6.5 speed score). He’s stolen 13 bases at a 72% success rate, and he’s hit three homers and 17 doubles in 273 plate appearances.

But it’s not all gravy on this train. He’s striking out 25% of the time after hovering around 20% for the large part of his minor league career. Subsequently, ZiPS RoS has him hitting .271 the rest of the season and continuing his current pace to finish with seven home runs and 25 stolen bases. Until his K-rate falls a little, that’s about the best that can be expected from this young man.

Because his offense is currently adequate, and his team is suddenly playing well, defense may not factor into his playing time too strongly. However, his team is not a strong contender in a crowded division, and things could change quickly. Pack an extended burn of strikeouts into a team-wide slump and a decision by management to focus on next year, and suddenly Fowler’s sub-par defense could become an ‘issue.’

His current 2.1 Range Factor in center field puts him in the Shane Victorino (2.3 RF) – Vernon Wells (2.3 RF) section of center field defenders. That’s the section where the offense helps the poor defense stay on the field. Is Fowler’s bat enough to offset the 5.3 runs he’s giving back on defense? Not if the major league team decides to think about his long-term future and sends him back to the minors to work on his D. That might also allow the team to showcase someone like Ryan Spilborghs for a trade.

Fernando Martinez – While his minor league team had already decided to play him at the corners, his major league team has a major league hole in center field and looks to be plugging it with their highest-ranked prospect. A look at the defense says that this is a short-term solution at best.

If major league defensive stats are still in their infancy, then minor league ones are much worse off. We can see that Martinez had a Range Factor of 2.31 in center field in the minor leagues, and that Carlos Beltran, an elite defender, had a career Range Factor of 2.7 in center field in the major leagues. Using the cruder Range Factor suggests that Martinez, like Fowler, could use some time honing his defense.

The problem in Martinez’ case, though, is that his offense won’t keep him in the position much longer. While his secondary offensive statistics are a little up and down like Fowler’s, Martinez has much more down in his numbers.

The good news is that he’s not striking out a ton (14.5%), and he’s shown improvement in that area over the last two years. His walk rate (6.8%) is in line with his minor league numbers, too.

But he’s not making good contact. He’s reaching outside the zone too much (26.5%) and not squaring the ball well (11.9% line drives). His 55.9% ground-ball percentage is positively Delmon Young-esque. Given that he’s only 20 years old, it’s a lot to ask of him to spell Beltran.

Since the team is in contention, look for Omar Minaya to target a center field platoon partner for Jeremy Reed. Relatively cheap acquisitions like Scott Hairston and Jason Michaels could take the bat out of Reed’s hands against lefties, while also letting young F-Mart work out some more kinks in the minor leagues. Those cheaper veteran outfielders would also still have value once all the injured veterans return.