Archive for saves

Earlier this offseason, it appeared as if Jose Leclerc might get traded rather than be a part of a rebuilding Rangers squad. Then new manager Chris Woodward was reportedly thinking of using his incumbent closer in a variety of relief roles. Now we know that Leclerc isn’t going anywhere — not to another team and not to another role — as Woodward named him as the team’s closer.

If the Rangers fall out of contention as expected, teams will certainly be calling about Leclerc. Also, while Leclerc was one of the best relievers in the majors last season, he is only two years removed from an astronomical 20.0 percent walk rate. As great as Leclerc was in 2018, it is still worth our while to venture out further into the bullpen to see who might have value in 2019.
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Initially, I was not going to include the Padres in this series about bullpens on non-contending teams. I realize that sounds ludicrous, because I don’t actually expect the Padres to hold their own against the Dodgers and Rockies. My focus on selecting teams, however, has been more about effort to contend than about the current makeup of a given roster. Still, even with their pursuit of players like Corey Kluber and Miguel Andujar and all of their emerging young talent, the team could very well be sellers at the trading deadline.

That means incumbent closer Kirby Yates could find himself pitching the latter part of the season someplace where he will have fewer opportunities for saves and fish tacos. There is a case to be made that Yates would be worth keeping around for the 2020 season when the Padres could be in a much better position to contend. However, if they wanted to trade Yates in order to fill another need or get reinforcements for the farm system, they have enough depth to provide a replacement closer and still have quality relievers for other roles.
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The Royals’ closer situation is distinctly different from those of the teams already previewed in this series on bullpens for likely non-contenders. The Marlins and Diamondbacks will almost certainly be auditioning relievers for various roles — including closer — in spring training. Will Smith figures to be the Giants’ opening day closer if he sticks around, but it seem likely he will get dealt. The same goes for the Orioles and Mychal Givens, and if they don’t trade their incumbent closer this spring, it could easily happen at some point during the season.

Wily Peralta would appear to be the Royals’ equivalent of Givens. He took over as the team’s closer shortly after Kelvin Herrera was traded to the Nationals in last June, and he converted all 14 of his save chances. But whereas Givens’ most likely path to losing his job is getting traded to a team that uses him in a different role, Peralta could get ousted as closer without leaving Kansas City. While he throws hard and, at least in 2018, got a lot of weak ground ball contact, there is little else in Peralta’s skill set that suggests he can be a consistently effective closer.
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Whether you’re measuring by WAR, SIERA or saves plus holds, Will Smith and Tony Watson were the Giants’ most valuable relievers in 2018. (If we include non-qualifiers, Pablo Sandoval had the lowest SIERA, but I’m not going to dwell on this.) When you think about non-contending teams who don’t need the luxury of going into the season multiple top-flight relievers, the Giants should come to mind first. So it should hardly be surprising that Smith and Watson’s names have been popping up in trade rumors.

Several teams have contacted the Giants about both relievers, and with bigger names like Zach Britton, Andrew Miller and David Robertson recently coming off the board, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi recognizes that the duo could be a good fit for small market teams still looking for relief help. Even if the Giants dealt both Smith and Watson, they would have a plethora of lefties still in place to fill that need in their bullpen.
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Plenty of teams are likely to enter 2019 with question marks at the back end of their bullpen, but the Orioles don’t figure to be one of them. Mychal Givens waited his turn to be their closer for three years, and after inheriting the role late in 2018, he did nothing to give new manager Brandon Hyde a reason to demote him.

This is not to say that determining Givens’ value in preparation for draft day will be easy. He compiled a 2.25 ERA and an 0.63 WHIP after becoming the Orioles’ full-time closer, and he could be a valuable fantasy closer if he maintained that role for an entire season. With the Orioles poised to fall out of the AL East race quickly, he would be one of the team’s most sought-after trade targets prior to the trade deadline. Givens would be a great compliment to an incumbent closer on a contending team.
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With New Year’s Day rapidly approaching and Pitchers-and-Catchers-Report Day less than eight weeks away, plenty of closer situations are still in flux. Potential contenders like the Cardinals, Phillies and Twins have reportedly been in the closer market and look like strong candidates to add to the back ends of their bullpens. Rebuilding teams are less likely to do so. If anything, they could be sellers in the coming weeks.

So while teams that are long shots to contend in 2019 may not have their bullpens completely set just yet, they are more likely to ultimately settle their closer situations by turning to in-house options. It is premature to speculate on the value of someone like Jordan Hicks, who could inherit the Cardinals’ closer role, but could also find himself setting up for a free agent signee like Zach Britton. It is not too early, though, to start scoping out the fantasy value of potential closers for non-contenders.
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An extraordinarily deep and effective bullpen was a key part of the Brewers’ run to the NLCS and coming within a win of going to the World Series. While they got just 20.1 innings from their starting pitchers in their series against the Dodgers, Josh Hader and Corey Knebel each tossed at least seven innings apiece, allowing a combined one run between them.

Jeremy Jeffress was as much a part of that vaunted bullpen throughout the regular season, but he faltered in both the NLCS and the NLDS against the Rockies. Despite collecting 11 strikeouts in eight postseason innings, Jeffress allowed six runs on 16 hits (including two home runs) and four walks.
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As a fantasy community, we liked Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel a lot more than all of the other projected closers on draft day this year. Jansen and Kimbrel lapped the field of relievers in Roto value (per ESPN’s Player Rater) in 2017, and owners typically rewarded them with one of the first 50 overall picks. Aroldis Chapman, Corey Knebel and the most popular of the remaining relievers had to wait a bit longer to get their names called (or clicked on).
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With a 15.4 percent swinging strike rate, 32.6 percent strikeout rate, 5.3 percent walk rate and 24.1 percent soft contact rate, Trevor May has been doing just about everything you would want to see from a closer. Yet Paul Molitor has been faithfully sticking with Trevor Hildenberger as his closer in recent weeks, even with the latter Trevor posting a 5.74 ERA since the Twins traded Fernando Rodney to the Athletics.
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In Thursday morning’s Bullpen Report, Greg Jewett noted that the just-activated Aroldis Chapman was going to get eased back into the closer’s role for the Yankees. In his first appearance in nearly a month, Chapman came in to pitch the eighth inning with a two-run deficit against the Red Sox on Thursday night, but there was nothing about it that looked like “easing.” His first pitch resulted in a Rafael Devers line drive single, and two batters later, Devers moved into scoring position on a Jackie Bradley Jr. walk. After striking out the struggling Sandy Leon, Chapman put the Yankees three more runs in the hole by serving up a slider that Mookie Betts turned on for a home run.
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