The Astros’ bullpen is a mishmash of waiver claims, Rule V selections and players looking to resurrect their career. None of the following names will appear high on your cheat sheets this draft season — if they appear at all — but some of these arms could provide fair value for those unwilling to pay for saves or holds in 2013.
The closer:
In lieu of a Waiver Wire piece today, we’ll take a look at the worst bullpen in the major leagues. Because saves are saves, that’s why. And no fantasy owner is looking for All-Stars on the waiver wire (or no sane fantasy owner).
In the second-to-last game before the break, interim manager Kirk Gibson, who has not yet named a closer, was finally faced with a save situation. Who would he pick? Let’s run down the list of his available ‘talent:’
Aaron Heilman
With a strikeout-to-walk ratio that’s been under two for three years in a row, and an FIP that’s been closer to five than four over that same stretch, Heilman has shown us who he is, and it’s not good. It’s hard not to go over the top here, but this is the bare truth: under no circumstances should a decent team consider Heilman as their closer. Of course, this is not a decent team. But even a rebuilding team shouldn’t really consider for their closer position a pitcher with a 4.94 xFIP and 31 years in his rear view mirror. So let’s hope that Gibson had sense enough to move on… which he did, sort of.
Esmerling Vazquez
Vazquez is striking people out (9.79 K/9), and has a decent-enough xFIP (4.11), and is also young (27). But Vazquez also walks too many (4.75 BB/9), has a poor groundball percentage (34.2% this year, 40% career), and isn’t being used in high-leverage situations (0.94 gmLI). Of course, maybe this team isn’t creating enough high-leverage situations, so Vazquez actually looks like a decent option given the putridity of this bullpen. But no, in this game, on July 10th, Vazquez actually recorded his first hold since May 22nd by pitching his seventh-straight scoreless and fifth-straight walk-less appearance in the eighth inning. Vazquez is moving up the depth chart, but he’s not there yet. He’s worth watching, though.
Chad Qualls
The veteran had been pitching better since losing the closer title earlier in the month. That is to say, he had put together a string of four scoreless appearances from June 29th to July 5th. He had only walked two batters since June 9th. He had given up one home run since May. Of course, Qualls also had given up 13 earned runs since the beginning of June, so the record was spotty. Then there’s also the fact that he’s in the last year of his contract on a team going nowhere. There’s no real reason to play him for the future, especially when the luck is really not going his way (.468 BABIP! 50.5% LOB%!). Qualls is still a good pitcher, but does Arizona care?
Sam Demel
Demel is the dark horse. He came over in the Conor Jackson trade, and has been dealing ever since, on a level that seems commensurate with his minor league performances. He was the Triple-A closer in the A’s organization, and had been sporting an 8.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in Sacramento. Well, now in Arizona, he’s got a 8.25 K/9 and 1.50 BB/9 (and therefore a nice 3.03 xFIP). If he can continue exhibiting that control, he could be a great closer, but that’s no given, as you can see from his 4.5 BB/9 in the minors. On the other hand, he’s the only reliever in Arizona with a good groundball rate (52.9%). The problem is, he’s being rewarded with mop-up time in bad games (0.69 gmLI, and his past six appearances have come in games decided by an average of 6.33 runs). This meat is grabbing pine. Maybe Gibson will notice him eventually, but he didn’t on July 10th.
Juan Gutierrez
Not to ruin the ‘surprise,’ but Gutierrez was the winner, after Heilman came on in the top of the ninth and got two outs but left two on for Qualls, who came in and gave up two runs without recording an out. So Gibson actually reached for two guys before he got to Gutierrez, and not without reason. Gutierrez is not striking out a ton of batters this year (7.52 K/9) or career (7.87 K/9), walks a bit too much (3.62 BB/9), and has a major Achilles’ heal when it comes to groundballs (29% this year, 36% career). If the team goes young, Vazquez and Demel are better options. If the team goes with ‘experience,’ Qualls is a better option (if they can see past the bloated ERA).
In the end, the problem is that Gibson has no real solid options to go to. That makes it hard to predict what will happen. If a dynasty-leaguer is looking at the situation, it has to be Demel as the pickup, and he does look like the best pitcher in the pen right now. If a redraft manager thinks that Gibson will be forward-looking and can see past a bad ERA, it’s Qualls. If they want to go by Gibson’s first attempt, it’s Heilman. IF it’s who succeeded last, it’s Gutierrez. Good luck hunting!
Oakland Athletics acquired OF/1B Conor Jackson from the Arizona Diamondbacks for RHP Sam Demel.
Jackson, 28, is under team control through the 2011 season. The 2003 first-round pick out of Cal established himself as a fairly patient hitter with mid range pop over the 2006-2008 seasons, hitting a combined .292/.371/.450 with a .361 wOBA. Adjusting for park and league factors, Jackson’s lumber was 14 percent better than average (114 wRC+). That’s not overwhelming for a guy who mainly manned first base, but Jackson controlled the zone (10.1 BB%, 12.8 K%), showed adequate power (.158 ISO) and improved his fantasy appeal by qualifying in the outfield during the ’08 season.
The past two years haven’t been nearly as kind. Jackson battled Valley Fever in 2009, limiting him to just 110 PA. He batted .182/.264/.253, with a .251 wOBA. Slowed by a right hamstring injury that required a DL stint in April, Jackson’s got a .298 wOBA and a .238/.326/.331 triple-slash in 172 PA this season. His ISO, .071 in 2009, hasn’t cracked triple-digits in 2010 either (.093).
In Oakland, Jackson figures to take over most of the playing time in left field. He’s worth a flyer in AL-only formats, but it’s hard to know how he’ll hit in the green and gold, given the uncertainty regarding his health. If Jackson is moving past the illness that sapped his strength, he could return to the .350-.360 wOBA range. Given that he has rated as about average in an outfield corner to this point, that would make Jackson a decent starting option for the A’s.
Mixed-leaguers probably want a player with higher upside and greater certainty, though. It’s also worth noting that Jackson will be moving from Chase Field, which (per the Bill James Handbook) increased run-scoring 15 percent and homers seven percent compared to a neutral park over the 2007-2009 seasons, to the Coliseum, which depressed runs nine percent and dingers 10 percent over the same time frame. That won’t help his chances of regaining fantasy relevance.
With Jackson no longer in the desert, Gerardo Parra will presumably get the majority of PT in left for the Diamondbacks. The 23-year-old lefty batter, rated as the 88th-best prospect in the game by Baseball America prior to 2009, has a .281/.319/.400 major league line in 609 PA over the past two seasons. The Venezuelan native has a .309 wOBA and a 82 wRC+, as he has rarely walked (5.4 BB%) or laced the ball into the gaps (.119 ISO).
Swinging early and often getting behind in the count (career 64.4 first pitch strike percentage, compared to the 58% MLB average), Parra has hit grounders at a 53.5% clip. He’s a good defender in an outfielder corner, but his offensive ceiling is subject to debate –Parra’s not uber-projectable at 5-11 and 195 pounds, and he didn’t display much thump in the minors (career .126 ISO). He was generally young for the levels at which he played, but Baseball America capped his home run power at the low-to-mid-teens, remarking that “if he has to move to an outfield corner he starts to look like a tweener.”
Demel, meanwhile, is expected to join a wretched D-Backs pen that ranks dead last in xFIP (5.16) and Win Probability Added (-6.88). A third-round pick in the 2007 draft out of TCU, Demel has missed lots of lumber as a pro (10 K/9) but has usually struggled to locate (4.5 BB/9). While the righty didn’t crack BA’s list of top 30 A’s prospects heading into 2010, Demel has added a cut fastball to his low-90’s fastball, changeup and erratic slider. In 28.2 IP with Triple-A Sacramento, the 24-year-old had 8.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a characteristically strong ground ball rate (49.4%; his overall GB% in the minors is 54.5). Demel’s worth monitoring, particularly if Arizona shops Chad Qualls to a team that focuses more on his very good track record and 3.56 xFIP this season instead of his bloated ERA.
Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Robert Manuel, Marc Rzepczynski, Aaron Poreda, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.
Josh Donaldson: The Cubs originally signed Donaldson as a supplemental first round pick out of college, but he slumped a bit at the beginning of his first full pro season. Oakland pounced and had him included in the trade for Rich Harden. The organization then aggressively promoted him one level upon his arrival and he hit .330/.391/.564 in 188 at-bats. This season in double-A, the catcher’s offense has come back to earth a bit again and Donaldson, 23, has a line of .271/.398/.429 with 32 doubles and six homers in 329 at-bats. He’s also posted an outstanding walk rate of 17.3% and a respectable strikeout rate of 20.7%. He won’t be a star, but Donaldson could be an above-average offensive catcher in the Majors.
Travis Snider: After a disappointing beginning to his MLB career, the 21-year-old left-fielder was sent back down to triple-A where he missed time with an injury. Finally getting back into the swing of things after missing all of June, Snider is swinging a big bat. He has seven home runs and 17 RBI in 22 July games, including three homers and nine RBI in his last 10 games. On the down side, Snider’s average is still below .260 and he’s striking out a lot. But you have to expect those kinds of things with young players. He’s definitely a future star, but he’s going to have his ups and downs. Just be patient.
Cameron Maybin: Like Snider, Maybin’s rookie season has not gone quite as expected and he is currently riding buses in triple-A, rather than traveling in style in The Show. With that said, his performance in triple-A has been outstanding and he looks ready for another shot in the Majors, which has been oddly slow in coming. Currently, the Marlins outfield prospect is hitting .325/.413/.469 with 14 doubles in 228 at-bats. He’s also increased his walk rate, while trimming his strikeout rate significantly. Maybin’s power numbers have been down and he’s also stopped stealing bases so his value is really tied up in his average right now. Regardless, he’s making positive steps and could be up any day now.
C.J. Retherford: With Josh Fields possibly on his way out of Chicago, this former non-drafted amateur free agent (a great scouting job by the White Sox) could suddenly find himself jumping up the depth chart at third base. Retherford has done nothing but hit since signing and he’s currently hitting .294/.334/.471 with 28 doubles and eight homers in 340 at-bats. The 23-year-old does not possess a ton of power; his swing is more geared to the line drive. His walk rate has also dipped each season and is down to 6.3 BB% in 2009 at double-A. The right-handed hitter has potential, but Retherford needs to be a little more patient.
Brooks Brown: Prior to the season, the Diamondbacks sent Brown to the Tigers so the National League organization could have the rights to Rule 5 draft pick James Skelton, who was then optioned to the minors. Brown, a former supplemental first round pick, had been a disappointment to that point in his pro career. He’s still not a strikeout pitcher, and never will be, but Brown has learned how to pitch to his strengths and rely on his defense. His fastball is in the upper 80s most of the time, but he has a solid ground-ball rate of 50.4% between double-A and triple-A this season. Brown’s walk rate has taken a hit lately, but his control has seen signs of improving overall. A starter in the minors, the 24-year-old is headed to the bullpen (possibly as a swing man) in the Majors but he should still be a useful arm who could luck into a number of vulture wins.
Sam Demel: A former third-round pick out of college, Demel has risen quickly through the minors and is on the cusp of his big-league debut. The 23-year-old right-hander posted a 2.79 FIP in double-A while allowing 23 hits in 29.1 innings of work and a strikeout rate of 7.98 K/9. Promoted to triple-A, he’s allowed just eight hits (but 11 walks) in 15.1 innings. He also has 14 Ks. The two key things that Demel needs to work on are: consistency and command. He has the upside of a set-up man with a low-90s fastball that has touched 95 mph, as well as a slider and changeup.
Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Robert Manuel, Marc Rzepczynski, Aaron Poreda, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, and Daniel Bard.
Alex Avila: The Detroit Tigers organization does not have a very deep minor-league system so it’s an exciting day when a prospect exceeds expectation. That is exactly what Avila has done since signing as a 2008 fifth round draft pick out of the University of Alabama. The catcher has built off of a strong junior year in college to become an above-average offensive catcher. After hitting .305 in his debut season, Avila has continued to bat .300 in 2009, while also adding more power with 21 doubles and eight homers in 247 at-bats. He’s striking out a bit (23.5 K%) but he’s also showing good patience (13.9 BB%). Add in that Avila is a left-handed batter and you have the heavy side of a platoon with either Gerald Laird or Dusty Ryan (in the very near future).
Lance Zawadzki: The San Diego Padres organization had eight picks before the third round of the 2007 draft so it looked for some ways to save money in later rounds. Shortstop Zawadzki was nabbed in the fourth round as a senior at a small NAIA college (Having transferred away from San Diego State after a terrible junior year). The infielder was one of those players who always had a ton of potential but just could not put everything together – in part due to injuries. Zawadzki’s first full pro season in 2008 was modest but he’s broken out in a big way in 2009. He hit .276/.360/.552 with 10 homers in 145 at-bats in high-A ball. The 24-year-old prospect was then promoted to double-A where he’s hitting .346/.428/.512 with three homers in 127 at-bats. Zawadzki also stole 28 bases in 31 attempts in 2008, so he has some speed. Given the lack of middle infield options on the big league club, this under-the-radar prospect could see time in San Diego before the year is out.
Kila Ka’aihue: It’s safe to say that the love that the Kansas City Royals organization received over the winter for its “shrewd moves” is over. The move that received the most scrutiny was probably the acquisition of one-dimensional hitter Mike Jacobs. One of the most puzzling parts of the decision to add Jacobs was that the club already had a breakout, MLB-ready first baseman in Ka’aihue, who batted .315 with 37 homers (and excellent on-base skills) between double-A and triple-A in 2008. His batting average is down this year to .265, but he still has more walks than strikeouts (1.03 BB/K) and he’s hitting for more power than Jacobs (ISO: .228 vs .186). Ka’aihue would probably be of much more value to the big league club right now, but the organization would be admitting it made a huge mistake with the Jacobs acquisition.
Brian Matusz: We looked at Matusz earlier this season in this column and the picture has only gotten brighter for the left-handed pitching prospect. The bad news for the former No. 1 pick, though, is that the Baltimore Orioles organization is absolutely stacked with upper-level pitching talent. Regardless, the big league club is not going to be able to ignore him for long. After posting a 2.11 ERA (2.91 FIP) in 11 high-A starts, Matusz has posted a 0.34 ERA (1.57 FIP) in four double-A starts. He’s allowed just 11 hits and six walks in 26.1 innings of work. The southpaw has also struck out 32 batters and has yet to allow a home run in double-A. The 22-year-old hurler has more than justified his fourth-overall selection in the 2008 draft.
Zach Braddock: One of the hardest things to do with talented prospects is to be patient. The Milwaukee Brewers organization has been rewarded for its patience with Braddock, a 2005 18th round selection out of community college. The southpaw was inconsistent in his first three pro seasons, while showing flashes of brilliance. Moved from the starting rotation to the bullpen in 2009, he’s taken off and been able to stay healthy. Braddock posted a 1.09 ERA (1.74 FIP) in 24.2 innings of work in high-A, while posting a walk rate of just 1.46 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 14.59 K/9. He’s continued to deal after a promotion to double-A. In 9.2 innings, Braddock has allowed nine hits and three walks, while striking out 13 batters. His repertoire includes an above-average fastball that touches 93-94 mph out of the pen, as well as a good slider and an occasional changeup.
Sam Demel: A move to the bullpen while at Texas Christian University really made Demel’s career. He’s taken off as a reliever in the A’s organization after signing as a third-round pick from the 2007 draft. The 23-year-old right-hander struck out 90 batters in 67 high-A innings in 2008. He then posted a 0.61 ERA with a strikeout rate of 7.98 K/9 in 29.1 double-A innings in 2009. Demel has since been promoted to triple-A, where he has yet to allow a run in four appearances. He’s given up three hits (but four walks) and struck out eight in 5.2 innings. With a little more control, Demel could be a future late-game reliever for the A’s organization.