Archive for Ryan Zimmerman

Before the season we wrote a lot of player profiles here at RotoGraphs. The ones I wrote focused on fantasy impacts, frequently mentioning if a player was under or overvalued compared to his ADP. Now that the season is over, I would like to focus on ones that were particularly notable, both for good and bad.

The Poor Predictions

Mike Pelfrey
Prediction: “It’s not out of the question for Pelfrey to be a 15-game winner with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.275 WHIP. If he can maintain a 6.00 SO/9 rate, that would give him 133 strikeouts in 200 innings. And that makes him a top-25 starting pitcher.”

Reality: 10 W, 5.03 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 5.22 K/9 (107 Ks in 184.1 IP)

Notes: In six games in May, Pelfrey was 2-1 with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP. His next lowest ERA month was July’s 4.84 and his next lowest WHIP was the 1.50 he posted in September.

Derrek Lee
Prediction: “Lee is a fringe fantasy starter in a 12-team mixed league. … What HR power Lee does possess at this point seems to be a Wrigley Field illusion.”

Reality: Last Player Picked has Lee as the sixth-best first baseman in 2009. He hit 35 HR this season, with 15 of those coming in road parks.

Notes: At the end of May, this forecast was right on, as Lee had a .248/.325/.411 line through 38 games. From June 1st to the end of the year, Lee hit .327 with 30 HR and 92 RBIs in 103 games.

Garrett Atkins
Prediction: “[I]t makes sense to target Atkins either at the end of the sixth round or beginning of the seventh. This is in line with what he did last year and if he just duplicates what he did in 2008 you are in okay shape. Yet you still have the upside potential of a healthy player not far removed from a $31 season.”

Reality: Atkins was one of the worst players in fantasy this year, with a .226-9-48-37-0 fantasy line.

Notes: There was one brief bright spot this year for Atkins, who hit .327/.393/.509 in June but the rest of the season was horrific.

Jorge Posada
Prediction: “Because of his previous level of performance, Posada has more upside than only a handful of catchers. But he is much more likely to repeat his 2008 numbers, which means fantasy players should look elsewhere.”

Reality: Last Player Picked had Posada as the fifth most valuable fantasy catcher.

Notes: Posada made 88 starts at catcher, his fewest (injury-shortened 2008 aside) since 1998.

Carl Crawford
Prediction: “Before you spend a late-second, early third-round pick on Crawford, be sure you are comfortable projecting the stats for him to return that value…. And before you decide he is a lock to steal 50 bases because of his fabulous success ratios, ask how likely it is that Tampa Bay will allow him to attempt the 60-70 steals he has previously in his career, especially since he no longer slots in as the team’s leadoff hitter.”

Reality: Last Player Picked had Crawford as the 10th-best fantasy hitter. Crawford attempted 76 steals and ended up with 60 SB.

Notes: Crawford had 668 of his 672 PA in the second spot in the lineup.

But there were many good predictions, too, even if the above are the ones that jump immediately to mind.

More Successful Ones

Asdrubal Cabrera
Prediction: “Cabrera will be an afterthought on Draft Day in most mixed leagues next season. But by the end of the season he will be on an active roster in most leagues. He is definitely someone to consider in the final rounds of your draft.”

Reality: He was owned in 84 percent of CBS Sports leagues at the end of the year after starting with an ESPN ADP of 260.

Notes: Cabrera will once again have eligibility at both 2B and SS in 2010.

Ryan Zimmerman
Prediction: “Because of last year’s injury problems and his lack of big HR numbers throughout his career, he’s likely to be under-valued in many drafts. And with a decent chance to approach triple-digits in Runs and RBIs, Zimmerman offers a lot of upside for a player apt to be available in the bottom half of most drafts.”

Reality: Zimmerman ranked as the 17th-best fantasy hitter according to Last Player Picked and finished with 110 R and 106 RBIs.

Notes: After three consecutive seasons of nearly identical HR/FB rates, Zimmerman had a career-best 15.9 percent mark in the category, which led to 33 HR, a personal best.

Prince Fielder
Prediction: “Fielder may be slightly undervalued by the mock drafting crowd (ADP: 26). The mockers prefer Justin Morneau, who on average is going six slots ahead of Fielder. Morneau provided much more value in 2008, but I would prefer Fielder’s power over Morneau’s RBI bat this season.”

Reality: Last Player Picked had Fielder as the fouth-best fantasy hitter while Morneau finished outside the top 50 after his mid-September injury. Fielder finished with 46 HR.

Notes: Fielder led the NL with 141 RBIs.

Cole Hamels
Prediction: “Hamels will have to improve on last year’s outstanding season to be worth a fourth-round pick. And there are enough warning signs around him to make passing on him in that slot an easy choice.”

Reality: Hamels fell off in all four categories from 2008 and was outside of the top 30 pitchers.

Notes: Hamels had an ADP of 41.

Jacoby Ellsbury
Prediction: “Would a 60-SB, 110-R season from Ellsbury be a surprise? Ellsbury is not going to be a big threat in either HR or RBI. But with above average production in runs along with one of the best SB totals in the game he should provide great value for fantasy players, especially given his current ADP (67).”

Reality: Ellsbury finished with 70 SB and 94 R en route to being the 14th-best fantasy hitter, according to Last Player Picked.

Notes: Ellsbury outearned Ichiro, with his 44 SB edge being more valuable than Ichiro’s 51-point AVG advantage.

Other predictions that turned out well included ones for Markakis, Bay, K. Johnson, Victorino, A. Soriano and Haren. I was more bullish than the ADPs for Choo and Mauer although both outperformed my expectations for them.

Divisional races are heating up, both in the fantasy world and MLB standings. It’s time to bear down and make that final push toward the playoffs. With that in mind, let’s check out some fantasy links…

Brandon Funston of Yahoo! Sports puts a fantasy spin on John Smoltz’s impressive return to the National League. “St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan has been known to work magic with reclamation projects and I think Smoltz still has plenty to offer,” Funston writes. “His upcoming schedule sets up nicely, with Washington and Pittsburgh next on his starting agenda.”

Brian L. Schubert of Fantasy Baseball Cafe joins the ogling of Rangers reliever Neftali Feliz. Setup men don’t often carry much fantasy value, but a 21-year-old who posts a 0.63 ERA, 0.35 WHIP and 19/1 K/BB ratio in his first 14-plus major league innings clearly deserves attention from all realms of the sport.

Rotoworld’s Matthew Pouliot checks out some potential September call-ups both in the American League and Nationals League. Keep an eye out for Milwaukee’s Mat Gamel, Atlanta’s Jason Heyward and San Diego’s Aaron Poreda. It’s sometimes surprising how much of an impact these guys can have.

In desperate need of steals? Aren’t we all? Charlie Saponara of FantasyBaseball365.com runs down some potential September call-ups who boast fantasy-worthy wheels. The Rockies’ Eric Young Jr., Oakland’s Eric Patterson and Cleveland’s Michael Brantley top the list.

Ray Flowers of BaseballGuys.com takes a deeper look at “The Resurgence of Barry Zito.” As Flowers notes, over the last 30 days, Zito “has a 2.51 ERA, the 10th best mark in baseball and better than guys like Jon Lester (2.70), Johan Santana (3.19) and CC Sabathia (3.35).” FanGraphs’ own Erik Manning delivered a post on Zito late last week.

R.J. White of AOL Fanhouse takes note of Ryan Zimmerman’s recent hot streak. The Washington third baseman has posted a .359 average, .512 on-base percentage and .781 slugging percentage in the month August, with seven homers, 15 RBI and 15 runs scored. White suggests Zimmerman could be a top-25 player heading into next season.

Have a fantasy-relevant link you think others should see? Or simply have a question or comment? Shoot me an e-mail or hit me up on Twitter.

The Washington Nationals, to be kind, are not experiencing a high point in franchise history; the Expos of the mid-90’s, these are not. Off to a wretched 6-17 start (largely supported by a negative 29 run differential) on the heels of a Latin American bonus skimming scandal, the dismissal of Jim Bowden and the construction of a brand spankin’ new stadium that roughly a dozen people have visited, the Nats are baseball’s biggest punch line.

Fortunately, the end of the alphabet has been exceedingly generous to Washington, supplying a pair of franchise cornerstones in third baseman Ryan Zimmerman and right-handed starter Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann the starter might already be the best arm on the pitching staff, while the Zimmerman manning the hot corner is off to a blazing start at the plate.

As you likely know, Zimmerman spent roughly three seconds in the minor leagues following his selection of out Virginia with the 4th pick in the 2005 amateur draft. After just 250 AB split between A-Ball and AA (where he batted a scorching .336/.377/.564), the slick-fielding third baseman got the call to the majors, where he made an extremely positive impression as a 20 year-old (.422 wOBA in 62 PA).

Zimmerman’s full-season debut in 2006 was everything that one could have hoped for: batting .287/.351/.471, he posted a .348 wOBA while contributing with the leather as well (4.7 UZR/150). The result was 4.1 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), an all-star performance for a guy barely old enough to order a drink.

2007 was nearly identical in terms of offensive output. Posting a .340 wOBA (.266/.330/.458), Zimmerman posted very similar walk and strikeout rates to those of his rookie campaign (BB rates of 9% in ’06 and 8.5% in ’07, K rates of 19.5% in ’06 and 19.1% in ’07). His Isolated Power (ISO) increased slightly, from .184 to .191. While his bat didn’t progress rapidly, Zimmerman’s slightly above league average lumber (supplemented by a crazy-good 16.5 UZR/150 at third) made him worth 5.1 WAR.

Given his Scott Rolen-esque skill-set and youth, Zimmerman’s 2.2 WAR output in 2008 came as something of a disappointment. The 6-3, 225 pounder suffered a left shoulder injury that limited him to 466 PA. His wOBA again fell slightly to .336, as he hit .283/.333/.442. His walk rate slipped to 6.8%, with his ISO dropping to .159. Clearly affected by the shoulder in the early season (his April OPS was .632), Zimmerman returned in late July with better results: a .320/.367/.420 line in August, followed by a .290/.347/.516 showing in September.

That late-season raking has carried over into 2009: Zimmerman has a .392 wOBA thus far, mashing to the tune of .306/.364/.551. His .245 ISO is light years ahead of 2008’s pace, the result of fewer pitches beaten into the infield dirt. Zimmerman is taking to the air in ’09:

2006: 42.3 GB%, 35.9 FB%
2007: 43.5 GB%, 39.5 FB%
2008: 46.1 GB%, 34.1 FB%
2009: 31.2 GB%, 48.1 FB%

For the first time in his career, Zimmerman is lofting the ball with frequency. His flyball percentage ranks among the top 25 in baseball, and not coincidentally, that list includes plenty of power hitters.

With a sound shoulder and a more power-oriented approach, Zimmerman looks poised for an offensive breakthrough in 2009. Still just 24, Washington’s championship-caliber third baseman (just signed to a long-term extension) provides a strong foundation for a franchise with plenty of broken windows.

Heading into the 2008 season, Ryan Zimmerman was a Top 10 fantasy third baseman according to most cheat sheets. Then he suffered a shoulder injury that caused him to miss 47 days during the year. Prior to the injury, Zimmerman was having a poor season. He posted a .257/.291/.427 line in 220 plate appearances before hitting the DL. Upon returning to the active roster, Zimmerman went .306/.370/.455 in his final 245 PA. And there has been no reports of lingering problems with the shoulder in the off-season.

Zimmerman hits for a pretty good AVG but does not offer the slugging one would expect from a top 3B. His HR/FB% has been remarkably consistent the past three seasons, with last year’s 11.5 percent a tenth of a percent higher than his previous two campaigns. The problem is he doesn’t hit enough fly balls. Last year his FB% was just 34.1 percent.

Since we know Zimmerman is not going to be a big HR threat, he needs to maximize his other categories in order to be an elite player at the hot corner. A .300 AVG is not out of the question nor is 100 RBIs and Runs.

If Zimmerman can hit those targets, he could be a top 10 3B even with a HR output in the low 20s. One thing to keep in mind is the depth of the 3B position, which gets a big boost from players at other positions (like Kevin Youkilis, Aubrey Huff and Christopher Davis) who played mostly elsewhere in 2008 yet still surpassed the 20-game mark at the hot corner. It’s not a given Zimmerman will be a starting-quality 3B.

But fantasy owners can’t simply allow Zimmerman to fall off the radar, either. Because of last year’s injury problems and his lack of big HR numbers throughout his career, he’s likely to be under-valued in many drafts. And with a decent chance to approach triple-digits in Runs and RBIs, Zimmerman offers a lot of upside for a player apt to be available in the bottom half of most drafts.