Archive for Ryan Spilborghs

It’s a holiday weekend, and in the honor of National Lampoon and holiday/family misadventures everywhere, let’s lead this off with a song and a couple of players that might help fantasy owners on the run:

Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers (37% owned)
Trolling for saves is no exact science. We’ve tried using strikeout rates, walk rates, leverage index, ‘thinking stupid,’ and even fingers in the wind to predict closers in the past. Put this post in the latter category. John Axford has done nothing wrong – well, not quite nothing, he does own a 4.50 walk rate that might make sustaining his current performance level difficult, especially if it starts to approach his higher walk rates of the past – but sometimes doing nothing wrong is not good enough. Even though he hasn’t blown a save yet, and is probably the future at the position for Milwaukee, there’s the little matter of the former closer behind him. Not only has Hoffman turned in eight straight innings with only one run surrendered, but he’s also only four saves short of 600. Milwaukee might turn to the Hoff to boost late-season attendance in his run at glory. Stranger things have happened, and Axford owners at the very least should pick up the legendary change-piecer.

Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies (5% owned)
Sometimes you just have to keep plucking that chicken. About a month ago, we recommended Fowler in this space, and he promptly sucked for a while and was sent down. Well, at least he raked… in AAA. In 124 plate appearances, he put up a .340/.435/.566 that showed his team that he had little to figure out in the minor leagues. He’s still a member of one of the more crowded houses in the league, as Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Carlos Gonzalez and Brad Hawpe are all are above-average hitters. Fowler is strong against lefties, though, and in a worst-case scenario, he’ll be a caddy for Smith against lefties. However, Todd Helton has lost all his power (.066 ISO) and is a terrible offensive first baseman right now. The team might best be served (even defensively) by putting Hawpe at first many days, which would open up more at-bats for Fowler. In any case, Fowler has been up and has been playing. He’s played in every game since he’s come back up, and was six for his last eight. Guess finally trying out AAA for the first time did him some good. With his five-tool upside, he’s worth a flier in deeper leagues for sure.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Pat Burrell, San Francisco Giants (owned in 2% of Yahoo! leagues)

It must be the National League cooking. In his last time in the senior circuit, Burrell put up a 33 HR season with a combined 160 R + RBIs. His time in the American League with the Rays is better off forgotten. But now back in the NL with the Giants, Burrell is batting .375 with 8 R + RBIs in 9 G. He has only hit 1 HR in that span but has earned additional playing time. And if Burrell gets the at-bats the HR will come sooner or later. He only has a 9.1 HR/FB rate this year (similar to last season’s mark) but in his career Burrell has a 15.9 percent rate.

Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians (owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues)

He has 3 HR in his last 5 G, including Sunday when he turned on a Stephen Strasburg fastball clocked at 99.7 mph. (R) ZiPS projects 10 HR for Hafner in 240 ABs. Both of those totals could be on the low side. He will not give you anything in SB and is unlikely to be helpful at all in AVG. But Hafner has big-time power and could contribute in three categories for the remainder of the season.

Ryan Spilborghs, Colorado Rockies (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

In 9 G this month, Spilborghs is batting .481 with 3 HR. Right now the only thing holding back Spilborghs is playing time and with the Rockies playing an Interleague series on the road against the Twins, Spilborghs should see lots of action in the week ahead. Previously, he has crushed LHP and been poor against RHP. But this season, Spilborghs has a .297 AVG with 4 HR in 64 ABs against righties.

Many fantasy leagues break the outfielders up by their respective positions, a quirk that creates a premium outfield position. Consider that, in many formats, the 12th-ranked center fielder going into the season was Chris Young, whose projections were comparable to the 12th-ranked second baseman going into the season (Rickie Weeks).

Defense then becomes a non-fantasy entity that can mean a lot to the fantasy fortunes of the center fielder. Play good defense, and you’ll buy yourself more time to figure out the batting part of the deal. Or at least, that seems to be what’s keeping Carlos Gomez playing in Minnesota. Let’s take a look at two young center fielders, how they are faring, and how defense factors into the decision.

Dexter Fowler – For a 23-year-old getting his first extended burn at the major league level, Fowler is acquitting himself reasonably well. His .264/.354/.405 slash line has a little bit of something for everyone. Walking 12.7% of the time assures that he can take advantage of his prodigious speed (6.5 speed score). He’s stolen 13 bases at a 72% success rate, and he’s hit three homers and 17 doubles in 273 plate appearances.

But it’s not all gravy on this train. He’s striking out 25% of the time after hovering around 20% for the large part of his minor league career. Subsequently, ZiPS RoS has him hitting .271 the rest of the season and continuing his current pace to finish with seven home runs and 25 stolen bases. Until his K-rate falls a little, that’s about the best that can be expected from this young man.

Because his offense is currently adequate, and his team is suddenly playing well, defense may not factor into his playing time too strongly. However, his team is not a strong contender in a crowded division, and things could change quickly. Pack an extended burn of strikeouts into a team-wide slump and a decision by management to focus on next year, and suddenly Fowler’s sub-par defense could become an ‘issue.’

His current 2.1 Range Factor in center field puts him in the Shane Victorino (2.3 RF) – Vernon Wells (2.3 RF) section of center field defenders. That’s the section where the offense helps the poor defense stay on the field. Is Fowler’s bat enough to offset the 5.3 runs he’s giving back on defense? Not if the major league team decides to think about his long-term future and sends him back to the minors to work on his D. That might also allow the team to showcase someone like Ryan Spilborghs for a trade.

Fernando Martinez – While his minor league team had already decided to play him at the corners, his major league team has a major league hole in center field and looks to be plugging it with their highest-ranked prospect. A look at the defense says that this is a short-term solution at best.

If major league defensive stats are still in their infancy, then minor league ones are much worse off. We can see that Martinez had a Range Factor of 2.31 in center field in the minor leagues, and that Carlos Beltran, an elite defender, had a career Range Factor of 2.7 in center field in the major leagues. Using the cruder Range Factor suggests that Martinez, like Fowler, could use some time honing his defense.

The problem in Martinez’ case, though, is that his offense won’t keep him in the position much longer. While his secondary offensive statistics are a little up and down like Fowler’s, Martinez has much more down in his numbers.

The good news is that he’s not striking out a ton (14.5%), and he’s shown improvement in that area over the last two years. His walk rate (6.8%) is in line with his minor league numbers, too.

But he’s not making good contact. He’s reaching outside the zone too much (26.5%) and not squaring the ball well (11.9% line drives). His 55.9% ground-ball percentage is positively Delmon Young-esque. Given that he’s only 20 years old, it’s a lot to ask of him to spell Beltran.

Since the team is in contention, look for Omar Minaya to target a center field platoon partner for Jeremy Reed. Relatively cheap acquisitions like Scott Hairston and Jason Michaels could take the bat out of Reed’s hands against lefties, while also letting young F-Mart work out some more kinks in the minor leagues. Those cheaper veteran outfielders would also still have value once all the injured veterans return.

The Colorado Rockies outfield is in a state of transition. The do-everything, “Swiss Army Knife” of fly catchers, Matt Holliday, now resides in Oakland. The future belongs to precocious tool sheds Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez, but both appear ticketed for AAA Colorado Springs for additional seasoning. As such, a pair of unheralded home-grown players appear likely to receive everyday playing time for the Rox: Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith.

While neither comes with the championship-caliber upside of a Holliday nor the scouting pedigree of a Fowler, Spilborghs and Smith could provide league-average or better production for a minimal investment. Let’s start with the guy who has spent the past few years wishing that Willy Taveras would just go away (a thought many Rockies fans surely echoed), Spilborghs.

The 29 year-old Spilborghs has been waiting for what seems like an eternity to crack the starting lineup. A little-noted 7th round pick out of U.C. Santa Barbara back in 2002, Spilborghs carried the sort of profile that often makes both scouts and stat-heads skeptical. His early work in the minors was nothing to write Dan O’Dowd about: he turned in a .633 OPS in Low-A as a 22 year-old in ’02, and followed that up with a .281/.372/.445 showing at Asheville in 2003.

The then-24 year-old college product advanced to the High-A California League in 2004, where one expects a polished batter to mash in such a hitter-friendly circuit facing pitchers several years his junior. Instead, Spilborghs slugged .385. Sure, he showed good plate discipline, but he had AAA filler written all over him at this point.

Instead, Spilborghs decided to channel Larry Walker in ’05. He drilled the ball in AA as a Tulsa Driller, ripping off a .341/.435/.525 line, and the mashing continued upon being bumped up to AAA (.339/.405/.551). The same caveats about advanced age and conducive offensive environments still applied, but Spilborghs put himself squarely on the major league radar. He continued to show secondary skills galore at AAA in ’06 and ’07 (splitting those years between the minors and majors), and holds a career .334/.403/.508 line at the level.

The 6-1, 190 pounder has spent the past three seasons as a part-timer for Colorado, with each season a little juicier than the last (.332 wOBA in ’06, .366 in ’07 and .384 in ’08). Aided by Coors, Spilborghs holds a career slash line of .302/.374/.466 in 765 PA. He rarely strays from the strike zone, walking 10.7% of the time and swinging at just 16.8% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. To boot, his K rate is a reasonable 17.5%.

In 2009, CHONE projects Spilborghs to bat .294/.376/.454, with a .367 wOBA. PECOTA portends a .290/.365/.438 line. That CHONE wOBA places Spilborghs in the company of his old buddy Holliday (though Holliday will play in a far tougher environment and offers SB’s, too) as well as the Dodgers’ Andre Ethier. Those two are better hitters in a neutral context (wOBA is not park-adjusted), but Spilborghs could offer 90% of their production without a premium pick.