Boston’s right field just may have become a little more fantasy friendly as the club signed Cody Ross to a one year, $3M contract the other day. Initial plans are likely to platoon Ross and Ryan Sweeney, but if both perform as they have done so in the past, Ross should end up with the lion’s share of starts while Sweeney is relegated to a late-inning defensive replacement-type role. That would certainly put Ross on the map for both AL-only and deeper mixed leagues.
This is part of an ongoing pro/con series on RotoGraphs over the next couple of weeks. Today we’ll look at the positive/negative side of Carlos Santana. Expect the opposite side shortly.
Carlos Santana, Carlos Santana, Carlos Santana! How come every time I write an article about catchers, some fool comes in here and brings up Carlos Santana? Read the rest of this entry »
Some people are still fighting in their finals, or trying to squeeze some life out of their last few at-bats, so we’ll do a few last waiver wires. This one is themed by statistical profiles!
Batting Average / On-Base Percentage / Stolen Bases / Runs
There’s no way we can talk about batting average right now and not talk about Mike Aviles (38% owned). Yes, we profiled him just last week, but he’s found that patented Aviles magic once again – his .358 batting average in September is nice. In stretches like this, his low walk rate is a boon: he’s had more at-bats in which to put up those hits, and four multi-hit games in the past week shows it’s working right now. He doesn’t steal many bases, though, so you could also give Cliff Pennington (10% owned) a look in Oakland – he’s getting on base right now and stealing bases to boot. He’s had a nice year, and if he could cut that strikeout rate just a smidgen (19.3% this year, 19.9% career), he might be able to push that batting average up a few points. Franklin Gutierrez is walking a little more in September (5 walks) than he has since his freakish May (20 walks), is playing in a nice park in Texas the next few weeks (against a catcher core that gives up a 67% success rate on stolen bases), and has five stolen bases in his past two weeks. He’s a good shallow league option (26% owned). Ryan Kalish (3% owned) also deserves a mention as the Red Sox fall out of contention, but he’s not quite playing every day, isn’t walking enough just yet (5.6%) and is also batting low in the lineup when he’s in. Finally, deeper leaguers have to look the way of Peter Bourjos (1% owned) for speed and speed alone. He’s still playing most days and he’s swiped four bags in the past two weeks. Beyond improving poor plate discipline stats (3.6% walk rate, 22.4% strikeout rate), Bourjos could also use some regression to the mean in his BABIP (.231). At least he’s gotten on base in five of his last 13 plate appearances and his excellent defense (+36.1 UZR/150!).
Slugging Percentage / Home Runs / RBI
Now we’re looking for boppers. Ty Wigginton (54% owned) is a nice power pickup because he’s playing well and is eligible all over the diamond. The Orioles’ infielder has been wiggin’ out a little at the plate – his strikeout rate climbed almost 7% from last year – but his power is back in line with career norms (.173 ISO, .180 career) and he finishes the year at home, where he has a decent .269/.318/.455 line. He has struggled a little out of the gate, but Pedro Alvarez (19% owned) has been much better in September (.292/.354/.562) and could be your lightning in a bottle – which is, let’s face it, what you are looking for in the final week. The reason we can be excited about this final stretch is that Alvarez has been struggling with the whiff all year (34.9%) but has really cut down on those Ks this month (24.7%), and with nice power already (.200 ISO) and more on the way (.251 ISO in minor leagues), that lower strikeout rate will play just fine. We’ve given Michael Morse (9% owned) a lot of love recently for his power, but he deserves another shout-out here. John Bowker (1% owned) and Lucas Duda (0% owned) are both available in most leagues and could run into some home runs this week as their teams look to next year. Bowker might be the better bet – he’s in his peak years at 27 years old, and has all that minor league promise yet to be tapped into (.198 career minor league ISO, up to .264 over his final two stops). On the other hand, the Bucs draw decent pitching staffs in Florida and St. Louis while the Mets face Milwaukee and Washington over the final week.
Injury-ravaged and forced to rely upon the likes of Jeremy Hermida and Darnell McDonald, the Boston Red Sox outfield hasn’t stood out at the plate. Sox fly catchers have a collective .332 wOBA, fifth in the American League. Jacoby Ellsbury (ribs) has logged all of 45 plate appearances this season, while Mike Cameron (abdomen) also spent significant time on the DL. Ellsbury’s due back soon, and Cameron has been back in the fray for a while. But Boston decided to give Ryan Kalish a promotion yesterday, calling up the top prospect and DFA’ing Hermida.
A New Jersey prep product, Kalish was drafted in the ninth round back in 2006. The two-way player also starred on the grid iron and the hard court, and BA passed along a Chuck Norris Facts-esque tidbit that Kalish didn’t swing and miss at a single pitch as a high school senior. Though the athletic lefty batter had a strong commitment to the University of Virginia, the Sox coaxed him into turning pro with a $600,000 signing bonus.
Kalish didn’t take the field much in 2006 and 2007 — he signed August of ’06 for that above-slot bonus, then suffered a broken hamate bone in his right wrist on a HBP in July of ’07. The injury required surgery that September. Still, Kalish impressed, hitting .317/.406/.472 in 161 PA spent mostly in the New York-Penn League while stealing 20 bases in 23 attempts. BA commended his advanced plate discipline for a young, inexperienced farm talent, while also calling him a plus runner and throwing out a J.D. Drew comp.
In 2008, Kalish began the year rehabbing in extended spring training. After that, he spent most of the season in the low-A South Atlantic League while earning a promotion to High-A California League late in the year. He posted a .273/.365/.363 combined line in 502 PA, displaying keen strike zone awareness (12.2 BB%), K’ing 22.9% and rarely driving the ball (.090 ISO). That ’08 wrist injury played a prominent role in the lack of thump — BA said he “didn’t turn the bat loose like he had in the past, which had a pronounced effect on his power.” On the base paths, Kalish was successful in 19 of 23 tries.
Two-thousand nine would prove to be the 6-1, 205 pounder’s breakout year. In 580 PA divided between the High-A Carolina League and the Double-A Eastern League, Kalish batted .279/.364/.457. He stayed selective at the plate (11.7 BB%), but also sliced his strikeout rate slightly (21.1 K%) and hit with more authority (.178 ISO). Kalish was a high-percentage base stealer, too, with 21 SB in 27 attempts.
Kalish entered 2010 as the 96th-best prospect in the game according to Baseball America. John Sickels graded him as a B prospect, and ESPN’s Keith Law placed the 22-year-old 86th on his personal top 100 list. Law noted positive changes in Kalish’s swing since he signed with the club:
The Red Sox had to do a lot of work to help him find a consistent swing. Unfortunately, he had to do that work while recovering hand and wrist strength after the injury. He’s become a lot stronger since then, and his pitch recognition has also improved. The drift in his swing that affected his output in high school is gone, with much better weight transfer and good hip rotation, so while he’s not the quick, athletic teenager the Red Sox signed, he’s now a more polished overall hitter who’s already coming into some power and may add more.
Since then, Kalish has only improved his prospect standing. Starting the season back in Portland and then earning a call-up to Triple-A Pawtucket of the International League, Kalish has a .294/.382/.502 triple-slash in 343 PA. Patience (12.2 BB%), contact (18.1 K%), power (.208 ISO), speed (25 for 28 in SBs) — he has shown it all.
Kalish doesn’t have mammoth pop, and he’s now considered above-average in the speed department rather than a true burner (BA calls him a 55 runner on the 20-to-80 scouting scale). But he possesses an exceptionally well-rounded skill-set that makes him someone to target in keeper leagues. As for the present, it’s hard to say how prominent he is in the Red Sox’ plans. Will Ellsbury be 100% when he returns? Is Cameron only going to play semi-regularly as he continues to battle through injury problems of his own? It’s possible that there are enough open ABs there for Kalish to carve out a role. Keep an eye on how frequently Kalish cracks Boston’s lineup — he could be a nice late-season pickup.