Archive for Ryan Doumit

As we get ready to head into a new month, it’s time to update the 2011 Catchers Rankings once again.  Remember, the criteria for these rankings is as follows:

The arrows are used to highlight a player moving up or down in tier, but you’ll also notice some minor tweaks within the tiers as well.  Some that will obviously have more impact than others. Read the rest of this entry »

With the calendar flipping to May, it’s time to re-visit the 2011 Catcher Rankings and see who has climbed closer to the top and who’s been dropping like a stone.  As you may recall, the RotoGraph writers got together before the season began and constructed a composite catcher rankings.  However, after gaining some feedback from all of you, I have decided to make my adjustments to the rankings based on the following criteria:

The arrows are used to highlight a player moving up or down in tier, but you’ll also notice some minor tweaks within the tiers as well.  Some that will obviously have more impact than others.  So without further ado, you may now cue the theme song to The Jeffersons… Read the rest of this entry »

Negotiating trades in fantasy baseball can always be tough in competitive leagues.  Everyone is trying to gain the upper hand and each time you ask for that better starting pitcher or that more powerful outfielder, you end up taking some kind of grief for over-valuing your own players.  So why not try and get that extra boost in numbers from a low-profile spot like behind the plate?  Negotiate a deal and then try to throw in your over-performing catcher for their under-performing one who you think has the potential to improve.  You just might be able to squeeze some more out from their end.  Looking at early season BABIP and xBABIP, here’s a look at some “throw-ins” you just might want to try out… Read the rest of this entry »

The 2011 baseball season is almost upon us, so we here at RotoGraphs put our collective heads together to come up with some aggregate positional rankings.  I’ll be taking the lead all year with the catchers, but as a group, here’s what we came up with for now:

Despite last year’s power decline, we know the potential is there so Mauer gets the nod for the top spot.  Welcome to the big time, Buster!

Happy to have any one of these guys on my roster.  Santana is on the rise, but this could be the last chance for Wieters in the fantasy trust department.

Stable group of guys who can just tow the line for your backstop position.  Martin could be a nice sleeper in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

No major investment needs to be made here.  Some will rise, some will fall.  Arencibia’s power potential puts him at the top of the sleeper list.

Maybe a pair of diamonds in the rough in Lucroy and Snyder, but I wouldn’t want to invest more than a buck on the rest of the lot.

You’ve got to be pretty desperate to be living with these guys on your roster.

We’ll all be chiming in throughout the week with more detailed thoughts on some of the backstops and the overall rankings will be updated on a monthly basis, so stay tuned for more!

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at four catchers.

Matt Wieters
Wieters is one of the most common keepers that owners are on the fence about, and that’s no surprise. Unless you expected a catcher to have a .350+ BABIP for the rest of his career, his 2010 numbers aren’t that much of a shock. Wieters improved in a lot of categories (BB%, K%, SwStr%, Contact%), but saw a drop in his line drive rate forcing his BABIP to trend lower.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.345, 14 HR
Verdict: Cut. He’ll probably fall in drafts, so you’re better off waiting for him.

Geovany Soto
This one’s pretty simple, at least in my eyes. All of Soto’s problems stem from Sweet Lou and playing time, and he’s already gone. Plus, even with reduced PT, Soto was one of the best catchers this year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.380, 20 HR
Verdict: Keep.

Ryan Doumit
A constant frustration thanks to his injury problems, Doumit may not be quite the same risk heading into next season. With the Pirates starting to give him time in the outfield, some of the injury worries should melt away. I wouldn’t expect much more than 450 plate appearances, but that’s a number you can live with.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.345, 15 HR
Verdict: Cut. If you can, forget about his 2008 season as soon as possible.

Carlos Santana
Before the horrendous collision with Ryan Kalish, Santana was an automatic keeper going into 2011. He’s shown good power, fantastic patience, and a good stroke at the plate. Heck, he even stole a few bases. Knee injuries and catchers are scary stuff, so you need to be extra cautious with this one.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.400, 12 HR
Verdict: Keep. As long as you don’t have to pay too high a price, he’s worth the risk.

Tyler Flowers
Once considered the White Sox obvious catcher of the future, his fate is not so clear now. Chicago will have a vacancy to fill, but will they hand it over to Flowers?
Crude 2011 Projection: .225/.300, 10 HR
Verdict: Cut. I don’t think he’ll ever hit for a high enough average to justify keeping him.

JP Arencibia
After his spectacular debut, JPA didn’t do much in the limited playing time the Blue Jays gave him. He can still mash, and it should be his job to lose coming into spring.
Crude 2011 Projection: .245/.295, 15 HR
Verdict: Keep. He has too much power to send him packing.

If you have a catcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

With my batteries recharged after a “vacation,” here are some catcher notes to start your week.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Red Sox | 1% Owned

Seeing Salty in a Red Sox uniform just feels right, doesn’t it? While he hasn’t shown a ton of promise since his big time Triple-A performance in 2008, the Red Sox are going to give him a chance to prove himself in minimal action the rest of the year. He’s still only 25, and he did hit 11 homers in 270 Triple-A plate appearances this year with the Rangers. He didn’t transition into the Red Sox system well, but his 23 trips to the plate don’t deter me. He has a career line drive rate of 21.2%, and a league average walk rate, but he needs to cut back on his strikeouts by around 10%. If Salty can show some progress in the bigs, the Red Sox may decide he’s ready for a bigger role next year if Victor Martinez walks in free agency. If you have a big bench in a keeper league, he might be worth stashing.

Ryan Doumit | Pirates | 40% Owned

When the Pirates acquired Chris Snyder, it seemed like Doumit would be moving to right field full time. Since returning from the DL, he has played in five games, manning right field only once. It appears that the Pirates were intent on giving Jeff Clement another chance to prove himself at first base, and that threw a wrench into Snyder’s playing time behind the dish, and Doumit’s playing time elsewhere. Now that the Pirates have tired of Clement, Doumit should move over to RF with Garrett Jones taking over at first base. A move away from the plate should improve Doumit’s offensive numbers, and he’ll still be catcher eligible next year. While he isn’t a great keeper, he’s still worth a spot on your roster for the rest of the season.

Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals

During the first three full years of his major league career, Zimmerman combined fantastic D with an above-average bat — his wRC+ from 2006-2008 was 110. Since then, the fourth pick in the 2005 draft has kept the slick leather and improved his lumber. He posted a 132 wRC+ in 2009 and holds a 160 wRC+ in 2010.

Zimmerman’s power production has soared, with his Isolated Power figures going from the high 100’s to .233 in ’09 and .295 this season. ISO tends to become reliable around 550 plate appearances, and Zimmerman has been hitting for elite pop for nearly 900 PAs now. His rest-of-season ZiPS calls for a .289/.361/.522 triple-slash, with a .233 ISO. Remember Scott Rolen’s peak? Zimmerman, 25, is now that type of player.

Phil Hughes, Yankees

Though he has seemingly been a topic of conversation for years, Hughes turns just 24 this month. And he has been great as a starter — in 56.2 frames, he has 9.05 K/9, 3.02 BB/9 and a 3.63 xFIP. The 6-5, 240 pound right-hander is doing a great job of getting ahead in the count, with a 67 first pitch strike percentage (58% MLB average), and he’s getting batters to chase out of the zone 34.8% (27.8% MLB average). That’s the sixth-highest chase rate among MLB starters tossing at least 40 innings.

How is Hughes getting the job done? With 92-93 MPH fastballs and high-80’s cutters that hitters can’t seem to lay off. The 2004 first-rounder has gone to his fastball about 52 percent, getting a strike 70.2 percent of the time (64.4% MLB average) and getting a whiff 9.3% (6% MLB average). Batters have offered at the four-seamer 51.9 percent (45.2% MLB average).

The cutter, used about 27 percent of the time, has been thrown for a strike 75.1% (66.7% MLB average). It’s getting whiffs 10.4% (8.4% MLB average) and has been swung at 63.1% (50% MLB average). Hughes’ curve isn’t faring as well, with below-average strike, whiff and swing rates, but the fastball and cutter have made him death on righties (2.88 xFIP) and acceptable against lefties (4.40 xFIP).

If Hughes is still available in your league, well, what are you waiting for? ZiPS projects 8.51 K/9, 3.02 BB/9 and a 3.68 FIP from here on out. The Yankees are going to be cautious with his workload, but he’ll continue to deal when he’s on the mound.

Ryan Doumit, Pirates

The 29-year-old switch-hitter has a Tolstoy-length injury history — a torn hamstring in 2006, a concussion as well as a wrist and ankle sprain in 2007, a fractured thumb in 2008 and a wrist injury that required surgery in 2009 — but when he’s not hurting, he’s mashing.

After posting a 126 wRC+ during a (moderately) healthy 2008, Doumit’s production dipped considerably in 2009 (85 wRC+). Some of that was poor luck on balls put in play, but he hacked at a career-high 33.2% of pitches thrown outside of the zone.

In 2010, Doumit has chased 24.2% of off-the-plate pitches, and he’s drawing walks at a career-best 10.3% clip. His first pitch strike percentage is just 44.6 — that’s lowest among MLB batters with at least 100 trips to the plate. Doumit has a 127 wRC+ in 175 PA, with a .281/.371/.451 line. ZiPS projects a .277/.339/.458 showing for the rest of 2010, which is plenty useful for a backstop. But if Doumit continues to work the count well, his value gets a boost.

Of course, all of this is assuming he doesn’t hit the DL tomorrow.

Akinori Iwamura, Pirates

Picked up from Tampa Bay over the off-season for RHP Jesse Chavez (who was subsequently sent to Atlanta for Rafael Soriano), Iwamura has effectively lost the starting gig at the keystone spot for Pittsburgh to Neil Walker.

CHONE (108 wRC+) and ZiPS (107 wRC+) both forecast Iwamura for a solid offensive season, getting on base at a characteristically high rate while displaying little pop. Instead, Aki has a 49 wRC+ in 181 PA. He’s drawing a walk 12.1% of the time, but an incredibly low BABIP has made him one of the worst players in the majors to date.

During his major league career, Iwamura has a .330 BABIP. CHONE projected a .343 pre-season BABIP, and ZiPS .345. Aki’s 2010 BABIP? .198. He has had fewer batted balls classified as line drives (13.3%, compared to a 19.4% career average), and his ground ball rate has spiked to 58.6% (47.3% career average). That helps explain why his ISO is .076, below his pre-season projections of .109 from CHONE and .114 from ZiPS, as well as his career .108 mark.

Those aren’t promising developments, but Iwamura probably hasn’t totally lost it — his rest-of-season ZiPS projection is .262/.337/.369, with a .319 wOBA. Even so, the Pirates’ decision to give Walker (profiled here) a shot is defensible. The 24-year-old has a .262/.307/.449 rest-of-season ZiPS. It remains to be seen how he’ll handle second base, and he’s no top prospect these days. But Walker could be part of the next relevant Pirates team, while Iwamura won’t be.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox

Since returning from a neck/back strain, Matsuzaka has been a pain in the neck to Sox fans and fantasy owners alike. Dice-K has 6.55 K/9, 5.5 BB/9 and a 5.49 xFIP in 34.1 innings pitched. He has put 46.4% of his pitches within the zone (47.5% MLB average), and he’s getting first pitch strikes just 52.4%. Matsuzaka also isn’t missing bats — his swinging strike rate is 6.4%, compared to the 8-8.5% MLB average and his career 9.7% average.

During his first two seasons state-side, Dice-K was basically a league-average starter (4.31 xFIP in 2007, 4.70 in 2008). He was control-challenged, but at least compensated with good K rates. Last year’s shoulder ailment and 4.83 xFIP, coupled with more injury concerns and lousy pitching this season, make him hard to recommend. The upside here would appear to be a 4.25-4.50 ERA. Is that worth all the aggravation?

Gordon Beckham, White Sox

Beckham went from Athens to the South Side in short order, putting up a .270/.347/.460 triple-slash and a 112 wRC+ in 2009. CHONE (115 wRC+) and ZiPS (111 wRC+) predicted more of the same for the 23-year-old, and Beckham’s value received an extra boost fantasy-wise with his shifting from third to second base.

Flash forward two months into the 2010 season, and Beckham is owned in just 42% of Yahoo leagues. He has a ghastly .196/.286/.239 line in 187 PA, with a 45 wRC+.

It would be rash to sell low on Beckham in keeper leagues, as he remains a valuable long-term talent, but he looks lost at the plate at the moment. After swinging at 24.8% of out-of-zone pitches during his rookie year, Gordon has gone fishing 30.6% this season. His groundball rate is up 10 percentage points (40.4% to 50.4%), and his pop up rate has increased — 14%, compared to 11.9% last year and the 7-8% big league average. Beckham’s .043 ISO puts him in the illustrious company of Jason Kendall and teammate Juan Pierre.

He’s not going to keep a .238 BABIP, but Beckham is surely testing the patience of owners who have stuck with him through his struggles.

Ryan Doumit’s battled a slew of injuries since he began his professional career with the Pirates as a second round pick in 1999. He was mentioned in each of Baseball America’s first prospect handbooks until he lost prospect eligibility in 2005.

In 2008 Doumit put it all together and appeared in a career high 116 games and registered 465 at-bats for the Pirates. He’s appeared exclusively as a catcher for the Bucs’ since 2008 began after spending some time at first base and the outfield.

Healthy and playing regularly in 2008 Doumit turned in one of the leagues finer lines from the catcher position. He hit .318/.357/.501 which is good for a .367 wOBA and a nifty 4.0 WAR score.

Encouraged by the results the Pirates locked up the 28 year old to a long term deal that guaranteed Doumit $11.5 million over three years before the 2009 season. The Pirates also hold a unique two year option for $15.5 over the 2012 and 2013 seasons that the club must decide to accept or decline after 2011.

Towards the end of April the injury bug bit Doumit again. This time he fractured his wrist in April after 45 at-bats. He returned from injury on July 19 after a dissapointing minor league rehab stint where he only registered two hits in 24 at-bats across two levels. This continued upon his return to the big leagues (he hit .246/.261/.431 in July and .176/.231/.329 in August over 150 at-bats) and some frustration began to mount for Doumit. After his agent cleared up some misconceptions early in September he took off and finished the season strong with a .346/.424/.481 showing in 81 September at-bats.

Despite his hot finish Doumit finished the year with a .250/.299/.414 line (.306 wOBA) in 75 games and 280 at-bats. The tricky wrist injury didn’t seem to help his production at all but Doumit should be reporting to spring training at full health. Doumit has generated some trade interest this off season and he has a relatively friendly contract but his value is down and the Pirates likely won’t sell on him at a severely discounted rate.

Doumit’s career year in 2008 was aided by a robust .338 BABIP. This helped pad his slash line and especially his batting average. His BABIP plummeted to .271 in 2009 and for his career Doumit has a slightly above average .307 BABIP. Doumit’s 2009 walk rate (6.7%) remained in line with his 2008 rate (5.1%) but he struck out more often in 2009 (17.5%) compared to a lesser 12.8% in 2008. Doumit had struck out in 20+% of his at-bats in each year with the big league club prior to his breakout 2008 so some of the regression we saw in 2009 shouldn’t be seen as stunning.

Although the classification of line drives can be tricky (per scorer in different ballparks) Doumit did see his line drive percentage slip to 17.9% in 2009 compared to 23.4% in 2008. This implies that he wasn’t hitting the ball as hard in 2009 as he did in 2008. For the first time in his career he struggled mightily with fastballs (-0.77 run value per 100 pitches) and breaking stuff (-2.62 run value per 100 pitches against sliders and -0.96 versus curve balls).

With the help of the expected BABIP calculator from The Hardball Times, we can get a clearer picture of Doumit’s expected BABIPs (XBABIP) based on his batted ball profile. Here are the XBABIPS for the past three years for Doumit:

2009 (280 at-bats): .314
2008 (431 at-bats): .314
2007 (251 at-bats): .320

Interestingly enough, Doumit’s XBABIPS for 2008 and 2009 are exactly the same despite the very different line drive percentages. If we apply the XBABIPS to each of Doumit’s slash stats over the past three seasons we end up with these revised triple slashes assuming that all hits added or subtracted were singles:

2009 (280 at-bats): .293/.342/.457
2008 (431 at-bats): .294/.333/.477
2007 (251 at-bats): .262/.329/.460

Interesting. It’s evident that Doumit underperformed in 2009 (and yes the injury likely played a role) but he over performed in 2008. The abnormally high BABIP helped him a lot in 2008 and with some regression over the past three seasons we get a better idea of where Doumit’s true skill set stands.

Doumit is entering his age 29 season and it appears that he will report to spring training healthy. Doumit has been anything but durable and healthy over his career but freak injuries like his wrist injury in 2009 could happen to any player.

I’d project Doumit to hit for a solid batting average and he’s going to get on base at an above average clip and also slug at an above average rate. The Bill James 2010 projection of .285/.341/.471 with 15 home runs seems very accurate. If Doumit stays on the field you could expect closer to 20 long balls.

Doumit is coming off of a down year and you’ll need to closely monitor his health but the systems are pointing at him to be a top ten catching option next season. He’s going to slip in drafts but don’t wait too long to take him. Gamble a little earlier around rounds six through nine. He has the potential to really be worth it and make a noticeable difference in your fantasy league.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops here.)

Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place.

One of the biggest arguments of the offseason in regards to this position will be whether or not Joe Mauer belongs in a tier of his own. Certainly, if he repeats his work from last year, he’ll be above and beyond the best catcher in the league. The problem with projecting his power next year is that he didn’t crack 30% fly balls last year, he just more than doubled his career HR/FB rate (and tripled 2008’s number). That uncertainty regarding his power ‘drags’ him down into a tier with the recovered Victor Martinez and the steady power producer Brian McCann.

Next comes the tier that mixes strong rookies with some doubt with an ageless wonder in Jorge Posada. Matt Wieters or Miguel Montero have the upside to blaze past Posada (at least in terms of batting average). Just look at the second halves that Wieters (.301/.351/.415) and Montero (.316/.366/.534) put up last year for a little taste of the possibility. Though Mike Napoli made a small stride in his strike out rate (27.1% in 2009, 29.7% career), it’s still high, and he’s still the most likely to put up the worst batting average of the group.

The third tier is a mix of riskier young catchers with upside remaining and less-valuable older catchers on their way down. Actually, to be fair, A.J. Pierzynski doesn’t seem to be declining currently with his best batting average in seven years, but he is utterly devoid of upside and provides minimal returns in the power categories. For example, despite a major step back in his slugging percentage (all the way down to .329), Russell Martin could easily hit more home runs than AJ next year (and that doesn’t even mention his stolen bases). Geovany Soto seems to have had some terrible luck (.251 BABIP, .310 career) and is a decent bet for a bounce back. Buster Posey has to be seen as more of a risk than the young veterans ahead of him, despite his strong minor league numbers, just because of his youth (22) and his struggles last year. Bengie Molina had his worst wOBA (.308) in six years and doesn’t have a starting job in hand currently.

The final tier includes a trio of long shots at this point. Though there is reason to remain excited about Chris Iannetta, there are negatives for every positive. You might want to point to his bad BABIP (.253), but that may have been because of his bad line drive rate (16%). You like a power hitter to hit fly balls, but maybe not as many as the young Rockie (52%). If he straightens out those hits a little, he could even leap a tier next year, and he’s the best long shot in the bottom tier. Ryan Doumit just can’t stay healthy, and Kurt Suzuki hadn’t even shown this power before last year (.421 slugging in 2009, .398 career) and without it, you’re relying on a catcher for (already modest) speed.

Many of us will own someone on the bottom of this list sometime next year, but will we really want to draft them at the beginning of the year?

With a wrist injury sidelining No. 1 catcher Ryan Doumit for eight to 10 weeks, the backstop duties will fall to a pair of rookies: Jason Jaramillo and Robinzon Diaz. The former Phillies prospect, Jaramillo, will likely see the bulk of playing time early on due to A) The fact he was on the 25-man roster before the injury, B) His defensive reputation, and C) The manager’s familiarity with him from their time in the Phillies system.

However, don’t count out Diaz from wrestling the No. 1 gig away from Jaramillo before the first month is up. Diaz is an absolute freak as a hitter. He’s a classic bad-ball hitter in the same vein as Vlad Guerrero; he’s never met a pitch he couldn’t swing at – and make contact with. His minor league triple-slash line says it all: .304/.340/.391… Great average, few walks, almost no power. During the past three seasons, Diaz’ walk rate has hovered around 4.0 BB% (because he swings at everything) and his strikeout rate has been around 9.0 K% (because he makes contact with almost anything). The walk rate would be a little more worrisome if it were not for his consistent ability to hit .300, which compensates somewhat.

For a catcher, a .300 batting average is pretty impressive (especially if you’re running a fantasy team). Diaz also has the potential to offer some defensive flexibility. In the past, the athletic catcher has seen time at third base and second base. There was even talk of trying him in the outfield. During his prime prospect days in the Jays system, the 25-year-old catcher was 5’11” and 170-180 lbs. Some reports now have Diaz pushing over the 200 lbs mark, which would suggest his days of playing second base might be over, but he could still definitely help out at third, first and possibly a corner outfield spot.

A few years ago, there was a near riot amongst the Jays’ minor league pitching staff that was pitching to Diaz. While conversing a number of times with one specific Jays minor league pitcher, he would speak of what little effort Diaz put into the defensive side of his game – especially his game calling. But that, of course, was just one side of the story. And, to be even more fair, it was three years ago and the scouting reports are more favorable now.

Diaz has made strides in his defensive game. He even threw out about 40 percent of runners trying to steal last season. Both his range and fielding percentages have improved in the past two seasons. His game calling is still not a strong suit, but at least games can be called from the dugout, and he has a good person to learn from in the form of Pirates manager John Russell, a former catcher for parts of 10 MLB seasons. There is also room for improvements on blocking balls and receiving.

I once had a Jays official tell me that Diaz could be as successful in the game as he wanted to be. Translation: He sometimes lacks motivation, and is happy to get by on natural talent more often than not. It’s a lot harder to coast on talent alone in the Majors. There are players who do it, no doubt. But unlike the minors, the media glare is much brighter and the veteran players are vocal in most clubhouses. There are some players, like Hanley Ramirez, that post better numbers in the Majors than they did in the minors, quite possibly for that reason. Diaz could very well turn out to be one of those players if given the opportunity.