Archive for Royals

Gil Meche has survived and thrived despite two rotator cuff surgeries. The 1996 first-round pick of the Seattle Mariners, Meche made his Major League debut as a 20-year old in 1999. However, he did not pitch in the majors in either 2001 or 2002 due to his injured shoulder and it took several years to re-emerge as something more than a fringe player.

In 2006, Meche added a slider to his repertoire. His O-Swing% jumped from 17.1 to 22.5 percent, his GB% went from 38.9 to 43.1 percent and his K/9 went from 5.21 to 7.52 percent. It was also the final year of his contract and he parlayed his success into a five-year, $55 million contract with the Royals, which was lampooned at the time by the mainstream media and most statheads.

But Meche has been extremely effective in his first two years with Kansas City. He has thrown 426.1 innings and posted a 3.91 ERA in that span. He made the All-Star team in 2007, notched 14 wins last year, and was one of the top pitchers in the league in the second half. In his final 14 starts, Meche was 8-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 95 strikeouts in 90 innings. He had 11 QS in 14 outings and did this all with a .309 BABIP after the break.

There were two big reasons for Meche’s success last season. He notched the highest strikeout rate for any full season in the majors of his career, as he posted 7.83 K/9. Also, Meche allowed a home run on just 7.9 percent of his fly balls, which ranked 18th in the majors. He cut back on his curve and change to focus more on his fastball and slider. Meche used his slider 16.6 percent of the time last year, nearly as often as he threw his curve (17.8).

Meche was a lower-level number-three type fantasy starter in a standard 12-team mixed league last year. Barring some unforeseen improvement in his WHIP, that is probably his upside. But he is very reliable, having made 100 starts the past three seasons, he won’t kill you in any category and is a plus pitcher in strikeouts. Since many fantasy owners do not hold Meche in high regard (ADP in the 220s last year), he is someone who can provide great value in the high teens of your draft.

If you like your baseball careers unpredictable, than you will love Jose Guillen. The Pirates made him a full-time starter at the age of 21 and he looked overmatched. And then he regressed. After several years of irrelevance, Guillen bounced back with one of the most improbable years ever in 2003 when he put up an OPS+ of 142. Since then he’s posted three fairly productive seasons, one injury-marred campaign and last year’s mediocre effort.

In 2008, Guillen had three months where he batted .308 or better and three months where he hit .212 or worse. He had a 42-game stretch where he batted .176/.234/.294 but then rebounded to post an .865 OPS in his final 108 plate appearances.

The one thing that has remained constant throughout his career is Guillen’s refusal to take many walks. Last year his BB% was a dismal 3.7 percent, which amazingly only tied him for the seventh-lowest mark in the majors. It was the lowest rate in his career since his age 22 season in 1998. Not surprisingly, Guillen ranked sixth in MLB in F-Strike% (63.8%) and 24th in O-Swing % (31.6%).

But despite all those flaws, Guillen is still someone to keep tabs on during your draft. Even with last year’s disappointing numbers, he still put up 20 home runs and 97 RBIs. In his last five full seasons, Guillen has averaged 25 home runs and 92 RBIs. Those numbers alone make him a bottom-of-your-roster type guy.

The key for Guillen is his batting average. Last year his fantasy value was dragged down by his .264 average. But in 2007 he hit .290 and when you recall that he rarely walks, that becomes an AB-heavy .290, which helped make him a $20 player.

The perception is that Guillen is old and that he’s a malcontent. But while he’s been around forever, next year will be his age 33 season. And while he has worn out his welcome in several cities, managers will keep writing him in the lineup as long as he’s productive.

Guillen is an ideal late round pick. If his average rebounds (last year he had a 38-point BABIP drop) he is a plus player in three categories and an easy guy to ride during one of his frequent hot streaks. And if it doesn’t, he becomes an easy guy to cut when the 2009 Cliff Lee presents himself.