Archive for Roto Riteup

It’s been about a month and a half since the Cardinals dealt Colby Rasmus to the Blue Jays, so why not check in on that whole situation?

– Since the move, Jon Jay has responded by hitting around .300 with a few homers in just over 30 starts for St. Louis. Unfortunately, he’s not really stealing bases, so it looks like he’ll simply be a batting average guy next year. It shouldn’t be too hard to snag him late in drafts, just don’t expect more than .290/10/5.

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– Unofficial crowdsourcing question: Will Dan Uggla be overvalued next season because of his hitting streak, or will he be undervalued because of his extremely slow start? You may not say he will be valued appropriately, because we all know that never happens.

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– Ian Kinsler has decided that now is the time to turn on the jets and get going before the playoffs start. In a little over a month, the second baseman has hit ten homers and stolen a couple bases, all while hitting a contextually low .278 thanks to a poor BABIP. Sometime this week, Kinsler will set a personal best in games played, yet his uncharacteristically healthy season has gone mostly unnoticed. His batted ball times are a little worrisome, but I’d like to think he could be a .270/20/20 guy next season, and that’s assuming he misses time. Add in his production if healthy or replacement level production when he’s on the DL, and you have a very good fantasy second baseman.

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– Happy Stephen Strasburg day, everyone. Strasburg is set to pitch tonight’s Nationals-Dodgers affair against Ted Lilly. Could there be a bigger difference in pitchers in a single game? This author thinks not. While we don’t have a definite pitch count for Strasburg, the righty threw seventy pitches in his final rehab outing, so it’s probably safe to assume he’ll sit around the same mark during his first major league start of 2011.

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It may be Labor Day, but fantasy never takes a day off. Except for the All-Star break. And all those days from October to April. You catch my drift, though.

– Johan Santana seems to finally be making his way to the big leagues this season, as reports indicate he will make his 2011 Mets debut sometime during the middle of next week. Clearly, he won’t be a fantasy option unless you choose to stream him in NL-only leagues, but keeping an eye on his performance is recommended, as he could be a nice mid-round pick in drafts next year should he prove to be healthy. Hopefully Johan comes back and looks great, causing some owners (and probably a silly New Yorker) to way overvalue him based on a small sample and past performance.

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– It’s a shame that Justin Morneau is still dealing with concussion symptoms a year later, isn’t it? Injuries have effectively derailed a career that looked to be so promising after a monster first half of 2010, but them the breaks. At this point, I’m not so sure I’d take a chance on Morneau next season outside of the last round or two of a barely deeper than normal draft. In large leagues (i.e. 20 teams), he’s worth a shot in latter half of the middle of your draft, but he shouldn’t be counted on to start for you week in and week out. Morneau is one of the few players I actually feel sorry for, and I sincerely hope he has a chance to get himself right this offseason.

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– Since Ichiro Suzuki’s batting average hit .260 on July 20th, he has really bounced back, at least from a fantasy perspective. The outfielder has hit .314 over his past 36 games, stealing 10 bases in the process. Ichiro has always had high BABIPs, so a .333 mark during this stretch feels just about right. Owners are likely to be down on Ichiro in drafts next year, but he could probably hit close to .300 with 30 steals for yet another season if his recent success to is to believed.

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– Dog bites man, taxes are collected, and Nelson Cruz has a hamstring problem. Cruz’s season hasn’t been what fantasy owners were hoping for — especially in OBP or OPS leagues — but at least he’s already made it through 113 games. Cruz is a good example of the fantasy replacement level principle: when you draft him, you get his usually outstanding production for 100 games, and then replacement level production when he goes on the DL. It’s not like you don’t get to have someone take his spot in the lineup after he gets hurt. Certain owners take advantage of this every year, draft Cruz a round or two early while understanding they won’t be getting a full season from him. Cruz isn’t a youngster anymore, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he slipped a bit in drafts next season. If he does, someone’s probably getting a good deal.

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Anibal Sanchez’s season has been a strange one. He started the year looking like an ace, but he has really struggled these past two months. Here is a look at some of his numbers this year and what it could mean for next season:

– Sanchez’s 2011 ERA currently sits at 4.01, and his WHIP is 1.29. His fielding independent numbers suggest he should have an ERA somewhere around 3.30.

– In Sanchez’s first 16 starts, his ERA was a crisp 2.82, and he had 107 strikeouts in 105 innings of work. He didn’t have problems with walks or the home run ball, either, as he walked a mere 29 batters and only allowed 8 homers.

– In Sanchez’s last 10 starts, his ERA is a horrendous 6.33, and he has allowed 11 homers in just 54 innings of work. A poor BABIP has also contributed to his problems, but homers have been his biggest issue of the second half.

– I’m not quite sure what has plagued Anibal in the second half, but whatever it is, I’m worried about what he’ll look like next season. Keep an eye on Anibal’s home run rate over the next month; if it lowers itself, then the righty may turn out to be a nice pick in the later rounds of your draft next year. If he continues to give up dingers, then he’s going to sit on the waiver wire for a long, long time.

Now, on to the rest of today’s Riteup:

– After finally getting a extended chance to show what he can do in the big leagues, Michael Brantley’s season is over thanks to a wrist injury. Brantley started the season on a high note, hitting around .300 for the first month of 2011 and walking quite often. But, as the season wore on, Brantley turned back in to his normal self, and he ended up hitting just .266 with seven homers and 13 steals. Someone with Brantley’s raw skills and batted ball profile should probably post a BABIP higher than the .303 mark the 24-year old finished with, so we could easily see the outfielder’s batting average rise next season. A .275/10/20 season from Brantley in 2012 seems perfectly reasonable to me, so adjust your keeper lenses accordingly.

A Pitcher for Today: David Huff vs OAK
Huff has been serviceable in four starts this year, and today is quite a bad day for decent starters with low ownership rates. As long as they don’t hit the ball out of the ballpark, Huff could end up surrendering only a run or two against the A’s. It seems like I’m saying this more frequently recently, but this would be a good day to skip streaming.

A Pitcher For Tomorrow: Zach Stewart vs MIN
Stewart’s line from his last start doesn’t look pretty, but I think the rookie pulls out a win here. It may involve him giving up four runs, however, but Stewart is your guy if you’re looking for a “w.”

PickSix Lock of the Day: Chase Utley ($32) at CIN (Homer Bailey)
Getting a talent like Utley against a homer prone pitcher in a small ballpark. Yeah, I think I’ll take my chances on that one.
Prediction: 1-3, BB, HR; 15 points
Last Week’s Locks: 4 players, $52, 37.4 pts
All Past Locks: 16 players, $241.50, 103.9 pts

– Despite being nearly ready to return in early-August, Adrian Beltre is going to be on the DL for a little while longer. Beltre aggravated his injured hamstring while running earlier this month, and has essentially had to start his rehab over from scratch, making an August return unlikely. It’s a shame for Beltre owners, as the third baseman was putting up good power numbers and could have expected his batting average to rise. His injury may have hurt his fantasy owners, but it has helped owners of Mike Napoli and Mitch Moreland, as the two have have been seeing extremely consistent playing time.

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