Archive for Rick Ankiel

Just when you thought the cost to draft Bryce Harper couldn’t get any higher, the Nationals’ 19 year old phenom gives you yet another reason to allocate more of your draft day budget his way.  With a single in his first at-bat during Tuesday’s game between the Scottsdale Scorpions and the Peoria Javelinas, Harper extended his hit streak to 11 games in the highly competitive, prospect-laden Arizona Fall League.  In his second at-bat, he drilled a two-run shot to centerfield and posted his fourth multi-hit game in his last five and fifth in this 11 game run.  After a slow start in which he had just three hits in his first 27 at bats, Harper has made the necessary adjustments and is now hitting .290 with 5 HR and 20 RBI through 16 games.  He’s also kicked in three stolen bases, has a .357 OBP, and owns a .913 OPS right now.  There is no blue-light special to be had here.  If you want him, it’s time to get your fantasy checkbook ready.

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RotoGraphs is embarking on a series of player pro/con debates in an effort to thoroughly cover players that are particularly popular in either a positive or negative way.  Today, I’ll be discussing the pros of Nationals 1B/OF Mike Morse and Eno Sarris will tackle the cons on Monday.

The title of this post actually says it all and if I wanted to just type out his batting line over the last few weeks with the phrase, “nuff said,” that would probably cover it.  But for the sake of argument, and knowing that Eno will shred me if I don’t come up with enough evidential proof as to why Mike Morse is, indeed, fantasy gold, we’ll go a little further. Read the rest of this entry »

Here are three players to keep your eye on in deeper leagues.

Chris Getz | 2% Owned (Y!) | 1% Owned (ESPN)
In terms of fantasy baseball, I’ve always been a Chris Getz fan-boy. I’m not exactly sure why, but a second baseman who could hit .275 with 20-plus steals is always someone to keep on your radar. Getz hasn’t yet hit .275 in his career, but g-d it I think he will. On the plus side, Getz doesn’t strike out all that often, and he does have the ability to steal bases, as he’s stolen 42 bags in his last 47 attempts. Getz has also been hitting at the top of the Royals lineup on occasion, so he could have some value in the “runs” category.

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In place of a post ranking the outfielders, I thought it might be fun to update the news about a rank outfielder or two. Badumching. Joe Pawlikowski did a nice piece on the front of the site talking about Nate McLouth and his strikeouts, but that was almost a month ago, and much has changed since then. In the meantime, the Braves traded for another center fielder, watched him play for a few days, and then went right back to the well with McLouth. Small sample sizes!

Of course, it’s not too hard to beat out Rick Ankiel these days. He still takes a walk right around league average (9.7% this year, 7.9% carer) while whiffing along with the league leaders (35.3% this year, 27.2% career). The silly thing is that while the whiffs have come with the usual corresponding poor batting average (.234 this year, .248 career), they have not come with boost in power that often comes with the all-or-nothing swing. In fact, Ankiel has now been at league average with the power stroke for two straight years (.156 last year, .152 this year, .194 career). Add in the fact that UZR/150 doesn’t like his center field defense (-11.7 career), and you have an unworthy player. Or, to be more precise, a player worth just about nothing (0.2 WAR on the year).

Then again, saying something like “Nate McLouth walks more, strikes out less, and has similar power, more speed and better outfield defense than Rick Ankiel’ is akin to saying that the Yankees have been run better than the Mets in recent history. Badumching yet again, I’ll be here all the week. Is there anything going on here that can help us believe in McLouth’s recent tear (.333/.367/.704) in September)?

Well, one of the things that McLouth had been struggling with was the K, as Joe P noted. He featured a sub-20% strikeout rate for his two best years and then got to Atlanta with the swiss cheese bat (23.5% this year). At least with Triple-A Gwinnett, McLouth worked on that and produced a better strikeout rate (13.9%), as well he should. Of course, the rest of his line was underwhelming during his minor league stint (.234/.338/.383), but at least he worked on the strikeout rate.

McLouth’s power also waned once arriving in Atlanta. His .131 ISO this year would be a career-low, but we do know that ISO takes the longest to become reliable, that McLouth has only accrued 253 plate appearances this year, and that his ISO also took a step forward in the minor leagues. Chalk that up as two things that got better once he went down to work on his game. Not surprising, given the state of his competition, but we’d be much more worried if he didn’t show these steps forward, right?

Nate McLouth will never be one to own for batting average, and we are working with small sample sizes when we look at his September numbers, but he’s also shown that he’s done work on his power and patience, and that he can at least be the McLouth of old. Especially in OBP leagues, or in deeper leagues, he can be a late-season asset. As for his keeper prospects, the way that the Braves have treated him seems to suggest they may look for a free agent center fielder this offseason, which would make him a very risky keeper.

Before I set off on my move to California and give my teary-eyed goodbyes to New York City, there’s time for one last waiver wire piece. I’ll have to take a break for the next week as things are about to get really hectic, but as I’ve been wont to do, I’ll focus on some deep league options. Because if you’re here, you’re probably playing in at least one league where you’ll consider these guys, warts and all.

Jeff Francis, Colorado (13% owned)
I’ll have to admit I was skeptical when Brian Joura touted Francis as a $1 option in March. I remained skeptical when he showed a sub-five strikeout rate after taking a year off for surgery. In my heart of hearts, I still am skeptical. But here’s the thing, Francis is doing some things right. He’s not getting that lucky, as his BABIP (.282) and strand rate (71.1%) are fine. He’s just not walking people (1.88 BB/9), and keeping the ball on the ground at a career-high rate (50.8%). The pitching mix has changed a bit, as he’s throwing his bad fastball (-39.9 runs career) the least he has in his career (57.4% this year, 62.6% career), and that has to count as a positive. Of course, the bee in the bonnet is his career-best home run rate (0.47 HR/9), which is built on the back of his HR/FB number (4.8%) that xFIP (obviously) doesn’t think is sustainable (4.26 xFIP, compared to his 3.44 FIP). Here’s the thing, though. Not only is that xFIP tied for his career-best, but you could easily double Francis’ home runs to date (two) and he’d still be having a great year. Francis is a decent option for your bench in most formats, although I’d retain my skepticism in mixed leagues.

Rick Ankiel, Kansas City (4% owned)
If you’re in a deep league with five outfield spots, you might just own someone worse than Rick Ankiel. As with many deep league waiver candidates, there are plenty of reasons not to like the converted pitcher who is roaming the outfield in powder blue. His major fault has even been magnified this year, as his poor strikeout rate (26.3% career) has crossed over into terrible territory this year (35.5%). No matter, you don’t own him for his batting average, you own him for his power, like (ostensibly) the Royals do. The best news about Ankiel is that it looks like that power is back (.210 ISO) after a down year last year (.156 ISO). He also has had a decent rehab assignment, hitting for both power and average in Triple-A Omaha. If he comes back and stays healthy, he could put in more at-bats than ZiPs RoS predicts (232) considering the season is not yet at the halfway-point. In deep leagues with divided outfielders, getting 15 or so home runs from your CF might be worth taking the batting average hurt. The power should be there, and therefore the value.

– Huston Street will be starting the year on the DL, which isn’t a good sign for those of you who decided to select him as a keeper. He had problems with tightness in his shoulder over the past month, and had an MRI done yesterday. Street hasn’t had shoulder problems in the past, so this isn’t too much of a concern. Still, a closer with arm troubles is hard to judge, because missing a few weeks could mean losing their job. I doubt Street will lose his gig, but keep an eye on him.

– The big ball of power known as Mat Gamel has had a hard time recovering from a sore shoulder. Gamel entered spring hoping to win the third base job, but now I’d bet that Casey McGehee will start the year with the job. McGehee may not hit .300 again, but 15 homers and a .275 average are reasonable expectations. McGehee is eligible at second and third base, and is currently the 210th player off the board according to Mock Draft Central.

– A’s closer Andrew Bailey is going to sit out for a couple days due to elbow soreness. Bailey’s rookie campaign was helped by a .234 BABIP against, but his strong strikeout and walk numbers should translate over to 2010.

– Dustin McGowan pitched two innings in a simulated game this week, and the Jays still don’t have a timetable for his return. McGowan had a good 2007 and a decent 2008, but since his progress has been slow he is no longer draftable even in the deepest of leagues with a DL spot.

– Placido Polanco suffered a sprained right knee earlier in the week, and he hopes to return to action tomorrow.

– Rick Ankiel’s ankle is starting to become a legitimate concern for the Royals, and he isn’t likely to play until Sunday, at the earliest.

Kansas City Royals signed free agent OF Rick Ankiel to a one-year, $3.25 million contract with a $6 million mutual option for the 2011 season.

Ankiel has manned all three outfield spots during his second life as a position player, posting a -9.4 UZR/150 in 1,300+ innings in center field and a +6.7 UZR/150 in 600+ frames in the corners.

The lefty batter transitioned to the batter’s box in 2005, batting .259/.339/.514 in 369 plate appearances split between the Low-A Midwest League and the Double-A Texas League. Unfortunately, he missed the entire 2006 season following surgery to repair a torn patellar tendon in his left knee (injury info from the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool).

Ankiel resurfaced at Triple-A Memphis in 2007, batting .267/.314/.568 in 423 plate appearances. He didn’t show much restraint at the dish, drawing a walk just 5.9 percent of the time, but Rick’s Isolated Power was a robust .301. He earned a big league call-up in August, hitting .285/.328/.535 with a 124 wRC+ in 190 plate appearances. Ankiel popped 11 home runs, with a .250 ISO.

Getting regular playing time in 2008, Ankiel again had a 124 wRC+, with a .264/.337/.506 triple-slash in 463 PA. He was a free swinger (30.4 outside-swing percentage, compared to the 25% MLB average). But Ankiel still managed to draw a free pass 9.1 percent, as opposing pitchers threw just 45.4% of their offerings over the plate (49-51% MLB average). His ISO was .242.

While he was never placed on the DL, Ankiel battled shoulder, knee and groin injuries, and he was shut down in early September when he underwent sports hernia surgery (rosters expand in September, hence no DL stint).

This past year, Ankiel was often dinged up. He crumpled to the ground and had to be carted off the field after a collision with the center field wall on May 4. Ankiel went on the DL with a shoulder injury after the incident, and also dealt with an Achilles tendinitis and a groin strain.

When he did take the field, Ankiel didn’t pack the same punch offensively. In 404 PA, he had a .231/.285/.387 line, with a paltry 75 wRC+. Rick’s ISO dipped to .156, and he expanded his strike zone even further. Ankiel offered at 34.4 percent of pitches tossed out of the zone. Consequently, his walk rate declined to 6.4 percent.

Over the last three years, Ankiel has been five percent better than average with the bat (105 wRC+). Here are his projections for the 2010 season:

CHONE: .242/.298/.436, 93 wRC+
Bill James: .253/.310/.453, 100 wRC+
The Fans: .257/.316/.448, 101 wRC+

Personally, I would take the over on these forecasts, expecting something closer to his averages since 2007. Ankiel played last season at less than optimal health, something that the projection systems don’t take into account: they just know he played poorly. Of course, he could suffer through another injury-plagued campaign in K.C. His track record in that regard isn’t exactly pristine.

Ankiel is a good candidate to bounce back next season, assuming health. His aggressive, high-slugging ways are worth a flyer in A.L. only leagues.