Archive for Rich Harden

Buzz, your girlfriend, WOOF! – Kevin McCallister

When you look at the potential 2013 Minnesota Twins rotation, you’re likely to have the same reaction that Kevin did when he saw the framed picture of Buzz’s less-than-attractive girlfriend. The Twins rotation finished dead last in WAR and strikeout percentage last year and were bottom five in the league in just about every other category. Woof, indeed.

Scott Diamond, the staff “ace,” is scheduled to make his first spring start a little over a week from now and is questionable for the start of the season. And even when he does return, the Twins will be getting back a guy who had the fourth worst strikeout rate among qualified pitchers last season.

The Twins must really like low strikeout pitchers because their staff is littered with them. This offseason they brought in one of the three pitchers who had a lower strikeout rate than Diamond last year, Kevin Correia. And all but one of their potential starters has a career strikeout rate that is under 16%. Read the rest of this entry »

Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 23.

Josh Collmenter – The rookie has done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park this year, which has helped him to a 3.18 ERA compared to a 4.05 xFIP. The one team that has been able to hit the ball out of the park against Collmenter is the Rockies. He’s surrendered 4 HR in 19.1 IP versus Colorado this season. This week he has a start in Coors Field. Last time he went to Denver, Collmenter gave up 2 HR in 4.1 IP. Collmenter also starts against the Padres this week. San Diego is tied for fifth in the NL in runs scored since the All-Star break, meaning Collmenter has two potential rough outings this week. Give him a spot on your bench.

Freddy Garcia – Some thought that Garcia would fall apart down the stretch but he’s continued to produce solid outings for the Yankees here in the second half of the season. In his last five games, he’s 4-0 with a 2.01 ERA. He has a home game against the Orioles and in three previous starts against Baltimore this year, Garcia is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and he has 17 Ks in 18 IP. Keep Garcia active this week.

Rich Harden – With 72 Ks in 63.1 IP, Harden has given owners who picked him off the waiver wire a nice return. He’s generally been solid although he’s struggled against two teams this year – the Yankees and Rangers. Unfortunately, Harden faces the Rangers in one of his starts this week. In two games against Texas this year, Harden has allowed 9 ER in 9 IP and has a 2.222 WHIP. Put him on the bench this week.

Javier Vazquez – In his last 14 games, Vazquez has a 2.44 ERA with 16 BB and 79 Ks in 88.2 IP yet is just 5-5. This week he squares off against the Mets and Pirates. In his last two outings against New York, Vazquez has allowed just 1 ER in 14 IP. He’s yet to face Pittsburgh this year but the Pirates are reeling, having won just 17 out of 49 games since the All-Star break. Vazquez is pitching great and has favorable matchups so make sure he’s in your lineup this week.

Dontrelle Willis – How much money would you have wagered on Willis making it back to the majors in 2011 and being an effective pitcher? After 10 starts he has a 3.87 xFIP and he’s hurled a Quality Start in eight of his 10 games for the Reds. No longer the electric pitcher he was in Florida, Willis now throws his fastball under 60 percent of the time. He now throws a bunch of sliders while still mixing in a changeup. This week he has road starts in Chicago and Colorado and he’s been a slightly better pitcher on the road, where he has a 3.64 xFIP. Willis had his longest outing of the year the last time he faced COL, as he went 8 IP and had 10 Ks. He’s available in most leagues and is a nice streaming option.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 23 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lee, Haren, Shields, Beckett, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Wilson, Jimenez, Bumgarner, Kuroda, Worley, Garza, Fister, Wolf, Stauffer, Lilly, Lowe, Capuano, Strasburg, Carmona, McDonald, Humber, Westbrook, Lannan, H. Alvarez, Miley, Sosa, Duffy, Paulino, L. Perez, LeBlanc, Stewart, Hunter, Swarzak, Batista, A. Vasquez, Diamond.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 21 pitchers and how they fared.

Carmona – Advised to start. 8 Ks, 4.38 ERA, 1.297 WHIP, 12.1 IP, 6 ER
Colon – Advised to start. 9 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 14 IP, 7 ER
Dempster – Advised to sit. 11 Ks, 7.20 ERA, 1.800 WHIP, 10 IP, 8 ER
Nolasco – Advised to sit. 8 Ks, 5.40 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 6.2 IP, 4 ER
Norris – Advised to sit. 16 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 12 IP, 6 ER

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Nine.

Jeremy Bonderman – After a rough April, Bonderman has rebounded with a strong May, posting a 1.33 ERA with 26 Ks and 7 BB in 27 IP. But it has not translated into Wins, as Bonderman picked up one victory in May and has a 2-2 record overall. Look for Bonderman to continue his strong pitching with matchups this week against the Indians and Royals, two teams with a combined 37-56 record. He could double his win total this week.

Rich Harden – It has been a roller coaster ride for Harden in his first season in Texas. At various times this year, Harden has had troubles with BB, HR and BABIP. The overall effect has been both a FIP and xFIP higher than his 5.14 ERA. Harden has a very good 8.82 K/9, but that is down from last year’s 10.91 rate. Additionally, he has a career high 54.2 FB%. So, while his HR/FB rate is a lower than average 9.1 percent, he still has allowed 7 HR in 49 IP. Bottom line, Harden is not pitching anywhere close to how he did in the second half of 2009, so do not risk him being active in a two-start week.

Ricky Nolasco – The story of the Spring was how Ricky Nolasco did not give up a walk until his final appearance. His control has carried over into the regular season, as Nolasco’s 1.60 BB/9 is the seventh-best mark in the majors. And while he is allowing fewer walks, he is also striking out fewer batters, over three per nine compared to a season ago. Not only is he allowing more balls in play, Nolasco’s FB% is up too, checking in at 44.1%. The end result is an ERA of 4.65. While he has been unlucky to the tune of 0.55 by both FIP and xFIP, Nolasco is not having the impact year many predicted. This week he faces the Brewers and Mets. Lifetime he is winless with an 11.81 ERA against Milwaukee and is 4-6 with a 5.62 ERA against New York so leave him on the bench if you have other options.

Ervin Santana – After starting the season 0-2 when he allowed 9 ER in 11.2 IP, Santana has been a much better pitcher. In his last six games he has thrown five Quality Starts. Santana’s K/9 is up to 8.09 for the season. He has been lucky with an 82.2 percent strand rate but he has favorable matchups this week against Kansas City and Seattle. While both of those starts are on the road, Santana has a 3.06 road ERA this year.

Hisanori Takahashi – The Japanese veteran started his career in the U.S. in long relief but did so well he earned a shot in the rotation, where he has pitched 12 scoreless innings. It remains to be seen if Takahashi will continue his success his second time through the league, but this week he gets a road start in Petco against a Padres team that has yet to face him and a home start against the Marlins. Takahashi is 4-0 with a 2.00 ERA in Citi Field, so he is a good pickup for his two-start week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Nine are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Jimenez, Verlander, Garza, Billingsley, Oswalt, Hudson, J. Garcia, Hanson, Pettitte, Liriano, Lackey, Vazquez, Buehrle, Ely, Arroyo, Fister, Myers, Blanton, Matusz, Vargas, Morrow, Blackburn, Correia, Cahill, Talbot, Gorzelanny, Hochevar, Robertson, Westbrook, Narveson, Ohlendorf, Bush, R. Lopez, Bannister, Atilano, Stammen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Seven pitchers and how they fared.

Ely – Advised to start. 2 W, 11 Ks, 2.77 ERA, 1.077 WHIP (2 starts)
Kuroda – Advised to start. W, 7 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.250 WHIP (2)
Matsuzaka – Advised to sit. W, 8 Ks, 4.97 ERA, 1.342 WHIP (2)
Pavano – Advised to start. 7 Ks, 7.50 ERA, 1.417 WHIP (2)
Pelfrey – Advised to sit. 2W, 8 Ks, 1.98 ERA, 1.244 WHIP

Earlier today, in Part I of the series, I published a chart of 34 pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break and their 2nd half ERAs. Here I want to go into more detail rather than just giving a raw score for the two metrics

In rating the two systems, I considered the metrics to recommend keeping a pitcher if at the All-Star break they were at 3.50 or lower, to listen to a trade if they were between 3.51 and 4.00, to actively look to sell the player if they were between 4.01 and 4.50 and to either sell or cut a pitcher if they were above 4.51.

Of course, we also have to consider what the pitcher’s actual ERA was at the break, too. A pitcher could still be a sell candidate if one of the metrics was significantly higher than his ERA. For these extreme cases, I considered a difference between 50-75 points to be a “listen” candidate, while above 75 to be a “sell high” guy.

Zack Greinke – His xFIP was 101 points higher than his ERA, making Greinke a sell high guy. This was a big win for FIP.

Joel Pineiro – After allowing just three home runs in 17 first half games, Pineiro served up eight home runs in 15 games after the break. This was a big win for xFIP.

Tim Lincecum – It was a very good second half of the season for Lincecum, just not as good as the first half. He did have a slightly higher HR/FB rate in the second half, and xFIP did a better job predicting his post-break ERA. Still, those fantasy owners who kept him based on his FIP did not end up disappointed.

Dallas Braden – Made just four starts after the break due to a foot infection. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to lack of playing time.

Paul Maholm – His second half ERA was lower than his first half one, despite more HR allowed. Still, this was a pitcher that FIP would have identified as a potential buy candidate at the break, so a win for xFIP.

Tim Wakefield – Made just four starts in the second half due to leg and back injuries. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to the lack of playing time.

Clayton Kershaw – He had a 5.0 HR/FB rate at the break and was even better in the second half, as he finished the year with a 4.1 mark. His ERA finished two full runs below what xFIP predicted. This was a big win for FIP.

Derek Lowe – Opponents posted an .888 OPS versus Lowe in the second half of the season, including 10 HR in 331 ABs. This was a big win for xFIP.

Cliff Lee – Everyone thinks the move to the NL turned things around for Lee but he was 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in his first three games with Cleveland after the break. His HR/FB rate has been below 11 percent the past five seasons. This was a big win for FIP.

Carlos Zambrano – This was the closest one, as Zambrano’s second half ERA of 4.14 was just barely closer to his first-half FIP than his xFIP. Zambrano pitched worse in the second half than in the first, but it had nothing to do with his HR rate, which declined slightly from the 5.8 he posted in the first half. This was a slight win for FIP.

Jair Jurrjens – Both FIP and xFIP predicted Jurrjens’ ERA to rise in the second half and instead he pitched even better after the break. If you went strictly by FIP at the break, you would have listened to offers for Jurrjens. If you went by xFIP you were in the sell/cut area. This was a win for FIP.

Jeff Niemann – As with Jurrjens, both of our metrics predicted an ERA rise from Niemann in the second half. FIP had him as a sell while xFIP had him as a sell or cut guy. This was a slight win for FIP.

Nick Blackburn – Yet another pitcher that both metrics forecasted a rise in ERA. Except this time, the actual rise was more drastic than even the more pessimistic xFIP predicted. Since you might have kept him if you used FIP, this was a big win for xFIP.

Edwin Jackson – Pretty much the same thing as with Blackburn above, except you were even more likely to keep Jackson if you used FIP. This was a big win for xFIP.

Mike Pelfrey – The spread with our two metrics was not nearly as great with Pelfrey as it was for Blackburn and Jackson, but the end results were the same. This was a big win for xFIP.

Jon Garland – FIP projected Garland to be virtually the same in the second half as he was in the first half while xFIP had him being noticeably worse. The trade to Los Angeles invigorated Garland, or perhaps it was simply leaving a bad home park, as he finished the year with a 5.29 ERA at Chase Field and a 1.67 ERA at Dodger Stadium. This was a win for FIP, but probably not a pitcher anyone was targeting at the break.

Felix Hernandez – Again, both metrics predicted an ERA rise in the second half, although xFIP was more pessimistic, making him a sell high guy with a difference of 94 points. Hernandez pitched even better after the break, making this a big win for FIP.

Justin Verlander – Both metrics predicted an ERA drop in the second half for Verlander, with FIP being the most optimistic. Verlander pitched well, but saw his ERA go up, making this a win for xFIP.

Brian Bannister – A 3.66 ERA in the first half made Bannister look like a useful pitcher. Both metrics saw an ERA increase, but xFIP was the most pessimistic. This was a big win for xFIP.

C.C. Sabathia – Our two metrics were split on how Sabathia would fare in the second half. With a predicted decrease from his first half ERA, this was a big win for FIP.

Brad Penny – Our two metrics were split again. But Penny’s ERA went up in the second half. This was a win for xFIP, but not many people who used FIP were angling to acquire Penny.

Vicente Padilla – His HR/FB rate went up significantly in the second half, yet Padilla produced a lower ERA after the break, thanks to a move to the NL. Neither metric identified Padilla as a pitcher to target, although FIP came very close to hitting his actual mark.

Jarrod Washburn – Both metrics identified Washburn as a sell candidate as his ERA was 92 points lower than his FIP and 150 points lower than his xFIP. Officially a win for xFIP, although you likely would have made the same decision regardless of which metric you used.

Jered Weaver – A win for xFIP, which had him as a sell, while FIP had him as a listen. There are also extra points for xFIP for exactly predicting his second half ERA.

Joe Blanton – The metrics were split on how Blanton would fare in the second half. This was a big win for xFIP, which forecasted him to be a useful pitcher and he ended up better than that.

Bronson Arroyo – Technically a win for xFIP but not many fantasy players were running out to acquire Arroyo based on his 4.99 first half xFIP.

Jamie Moyer – Repeat the comment from Arroyo, except sub in 5.06 xFIP.

Trevor Cahill – Same as the above two, except with a 5.18 FIP.

Chris Volstad – Our two metrics were split on Volstad. FIP saw him continuing to be a sell/cut guy while xFIP saw him being a useful pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA. This was a win for FIP.

Rick Porcello – Both systems predicted a rise in ERA but FIP elevated him to cut status. This was a win for xFIP.

Braden Looper – The two metrics were split on Looper, with xFIP predicting a drop in ERA. Looper actually pitched worse in the second half but neither system would have advocated acquiring him at the break.

Josh Geer – Made just three starts after the break due to lousy pitching. Not one that either system would have suggested to add.

Rich Harden – While most of the players with above average HR/FB rates have been of little or no value in regards to fantasy, Harden is the exception. Both systems saw him improving on his first half ERA but xFIP was much more bullish. And Harden exceeded those expectations. This was a big win for xFIP.

Randy Johnson – Appeared in just four games after the break due to a rotator cuff strain. Officially a win for FIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to lack of playing time.

*****

If you made your fantasy decisions this year based on xFIP, you would be feeling very good about your choices with Pineiro, Lowe, Blackburn, Jackson, Pelfrey, Bannister, Blanton, Harden and to a lesser extent Maholm, Verlander, Weaver and Porcello.

If you made your fantasy decisions based this year based on FIP, you would be feeling very good about your choices with Greinke, Kershaw, Lee, Hernandez, Sabathia and to a lesser extent Jurrjens and Volstad.

From a pure bulk standpoint, you were better off in 2009 using xFIP at the break. But those who relied on FIP were more likely to make the right call on four of the five pitchers with the lowest ERA in the second half among the 34 pitchers in our sample.

We really cannot make any inferences for the future based on this one small sample. What we can say is that judging strictly from results in 2009 it would be a mistake to ignore FIP completely and absolutely while making fantasy decisions at the All-Star break. This year if you used xFIP you would have made the wrong decisions on some of the best pitchers in the game.

Stock Up

Rich Harden, Cubs

Fantasy owners pretty much know what to expect from Harden by this point: transient brilliance, followed by a stint or two on the disabled list. 2009 has been little different (10.56 K/9, 3.77 BB/9), though an inflated homer rate (1.74 HR/9, 16.7 HR/FB%) has put a dent in his ERA, which sits at 4.50. The 27 year-old Canadian has been considerably better than that: his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP), based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is 3.64. That’s exactly the same as his 2008 figure (when his ERA was slightly over two).

Rich has been on a tear lately, with 32 K’s, 5 walks and 5 runs allowed in 24 innings over his past four starts. Harden is one of those great “what if” pitchers. He crushes hitters with a fastball/changeup combo (he scrapped a plus slider because it caused him discomfort), and just about no one makes contact against him (his 67.9% contact rate is the lowest among starters tossing 90+ frames). If only we knew that he would make his next start…

Andrew McCutchen, Pirates

Some in the Pittsburgh media choose to ignore age, durability, service time and baseball economics, howling at every trade the Pirates make. To hear some tell it, it’s as if Pirates management is Kurtz-like, putting veteran Bucco heads on poles and keeping all the money and ivory for themselves- “The horror! they traded someone I know for someone I don’t!”.

Meanwhile, McCutchen is showing that these purportedly worthless, alien beings received for those beloved vets (sometimes referred to as “prospects”) can actually turn into studs. One of the very few successful remnants of the Dave Littlefield era, McCutchen is a 22 year-old with a shed full of tools. In his rookie campaign, the ’05 first-rounder is more than holding his own (.292/.347/.484, .365 wOBA in 239 PA).

McCutchen’s three-homer outburst on Saturday versus the Nationals is not something that should be expected on a regular basis (he slugged .423 in the minors), but he has some thump in his bat and a decent eye at the plate. Owners will also take note of his outstanding raw speed- McCutchen has swiped 10 bags in 12 tries in the majors, though his work at AAA Indianapolis last season (64.1% success rate) suggests he still needs some work on reading pitchers.

Jeff Niemann, Rays

A 2004 first-round pick out of Rice, Niemann punched out 9.1 batters per nine innings in the minor leagues. However, he whiffed just slightly above five per nine in the majors from April-June. The 6-9 right-hander has picked up the pace since then, with 20 K’s in 26.2 July frames (6.8 K/9) and 7 K’s in 8 IP during his first start of August. Niemann also limited the free passes, with 4 walks in July and none in his first outing this month. In fact, the 26 year-old is pounding the zone more and more as the year goes on:

Niemann’s Zone%, by month (the MLB average is 49.3%)

April: 46.2
May: 51.2
June: 53.2
July: 59.6

Kendry Morales, Angels

Heading into the 2009 season, the Cuban switch-hitter figured to be something of a drag on Los Angeles’ offense. First base is a position where if a player doesn’t mash, they’re a liability. And Morales’ preseason projections looked bleak:

CHONE: .327 wOBA
Oliver: .333
ZiPS: .325

Instead, the 26 year-old has popped 23 home runs, slugged .581 and posted a .383 wOBA. That’s pretty impressive, but believe it or not, that ranks 12th among first baseman. Morales is handling fastballs well (+0.98 runs/100 pitches), but throwing him a curveball has pretty much been the worst idea, ever (+5.13 runs/100).

Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies

Jimenez entered the 2009 campaign with plenty going his way. After all, the 25 year-old sat in the mid-90’s with his fastball (and it’s not straight as an arrow), with a pair of nasty breaking pitches and a nice changeup as well. The big question was: could he hit the strike zone more often?

The answer appears to be a resounding “yes.” Jimenez has lowered his walk rate from 4.67 per nine innings in 2008 to 3.38 in ’09, while missing more bats (8.02 K/9, up from 7.79). That’s awfully impressive, when you consider that Ubaldo putting fewer runners on first means fewer chances to K hitters (his percentage of batters punched out is up from 19.8 to 21.1).

Obscene stuff, improved control, and groundball tendencies (52.6 GB%)? What’s not to like?

Stock Down

Jarrod Washburn, Tigers

The newest Tiger has turned in a pretty nice season, as his 2.39 K/BB ratio is the highest mark of his career. But a 2.64 ERA pitcher he is not: Washburn (a flyball, pitch-to-contact lefty residing in friendly Safeco) has benefitted from a .249 BABIP (second-lowest among starters) and his 79.5% strand rate is over five percent above his career figure.

Heading to Detroit, Washburn will still pitch in front of a quality defense (the Tigers place 5th in team UZR), but it would be prudent to expect that shiny ERA to rise at least somewhat. Washburn’s rest-of-season ZiPS ERA comes in at 4.73, which is probably a little on the harsh side. But if you can barter the soon-to-be- 35 year-old southpaw for something substantial, this would be the time to do it. Washburn isn’t bad by any means, but he’s more of a low-four ERA pitcher than the ace that his ERA would indicate.

Brandon Wood, Angels

Wood needs a hug, an off-season trade, or both. The long-time prospect was optioned back to AAA on deadline day, after another big league call-up in which he mostly sipped Gatorade and waited to be sent back to Salt Lake.

In three years and 220 PA of scattershot major league playing time, Wood has posted a 2.8% walk rate, while punching out 31.1% of the time. The righty batter has plenty of pop (he’s hitting .313/.366/.587 at AAA, though Salt Lake is a hitter-friendly venue), but L.A.’s surprisingly adept offense leaves Wood toiling in AAA. His questionable control of the zone leads to some less-than-stellar Major League Equivalencies: according to Minor League Splits, Wood’s 2009 season translates to .253/.294/.462 at the highest level.

Nick Blackburn, Twins

As a pitcher who puts the ball in play as often as anyone (only John Lannan has a lower K rate among starters), Blackburn is subject to the caprices of his defense. That worked out pretty well during the first three months of the season…

BABIP by month

April: .307
May: .273
June: .271

…but July was most unkind to the to the sinker/cutter righty. Blackburn suffered from a .347 BABIP, surrendering 23 runs in 31.1 IP. If you’re expecting ace-like production from Nick, he’ll sorely disappoint you. Blackburn is basically a right-handed Zach Duke, as a strike-tossing starter who will occasionally have a month where more of those squibbers find holes. Unfortunately, the Twins haven’t been particularly adept with the leather (ranking 27th in team UZR).

Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins

If Bonifacio is still in your starting lineup, then you’re likely a masochist, in last place, or both. The switch-hitting infielder, formerly of the D-Backs and Nationals, has shown a dizzying propensity to make outs this season. His .275 wOBA “bests” only Jason Kendall and Willy Taveras among qualified batters, but he’ll now have a reduced role in Florida with the club’s acquisition of OBP fiend Nick Johnson.

Jorge Cantu will slide over to third base, with Bonifacio apparently platooning with Chris Coghlan in left field. Cantu has been statuesque at third (-14.5 UZR/150 career), but even with a lead glove, the move improves Florida’s chances. Some quick, back-of-the-napkin math comparing a Cantu 1B/Bonifacio 3B infield to a Johnson 1B/Cantu 3B alignment has the Fish coming out with a 1-1.5 win upgrade over the rest of the season.

Jack Cust, Athletics

Oakland’s DH/”outfielder” has experienced a goofy 2009 season. Long a Three True Outcomes hero, Cust has gradually put the ball in play more often:

2007: 21 BB%, 41.5 K%, 31.7 HR/FB%
2008: 18.8 BB%, 41 K%, 29.7 HR/FB%
2009: 14.5 BB%, 33 K%, 15.2 HR/FB%

Has Jack consciously changed his approach at the plate in order to put the bat on the ball more often? It seems like it. Cust’s Outside-Swing% is up to 19.8%, from 2008’s 15.3% rate. He’s swinging at more pitches within the zone as well (69.4%, compared to 62.8% in ’08), while making contact with 80.6% of those pitches within the zone (71.1% in 2008). Overall, Cust has offered at 43% of pitches seen, well above his 38.3% clip in 2008.

If Jack is trying to shorten his swing and make more contact, he might want to stop. Cust posted a .245 Isolated Power in ’08, but that figure is down to .172 this year. A less-powerful, less TTO-ish Cust has been a league average hitter (.335 wOBA).

Stock Up

Jordan Zimmerman, Nationals

A Tale of Two Rookies: Shairon Martis might have the shiny 5-0 record and a superficially better ERA (4.86), but Zimmermann (5.71 ERA) holds the FIP advantage, 4.24 to Martis’ 4.71. Zimmermann has a strong 3.25 strikeout-to-walk ratio (8.56 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9), but a fluky .343 BABIP has bogged down his numbers. The 22 year-old has a deep four-pitch mix and keeps the ball in the zone (54.8% of his pitches have crossed home plate, compared to the 48.9% MLB average). He’s also getting ahead of hitters 0-1 or inducing contact early in the at-bat, with a First-Pitch Strike percentage of 66.5 (57.7% MLB average).

Kevin Slowey, Twins

As an extreme flyball pitcher (his career GB% is 33.2), Slowey will give up some meatballs that end up in the stands (1.3 HR/9 in 2009, 1.47 HR/9 career). However, his control and command are absolutely disgusting. Slowey’s walk rate for the season sits at 0.65, less than half of last year’s already pinpoint 1.35 BB/9. The 25 year-old is basically in a category of his own in terms of painting the corners: Joel Pinerio ranks 2nd in BB/9 at 1.03. Slowey has a 9.75 K/BB ratio; Roy Halladay is second at 7.0. Slowey also leads all starters in placing his pitches within the zone, at 59.2 percent. His FIP is down to 3.94 for the season, and batters have a better chance of winning the lottery and subsequently being struck by lightning than drawing a walk against him.

Elvis Andrus, Rangers

Per Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Andrus has been the sixth-most productive shortstop in the majors in 2009, quite the accomplishment for a 20 year-old who spent last season in Double-A. Andrus has been a vacuum at short at 14.8 UZR/150, but he has surprisingly held his own at the dish as well. His wOBA sits at .355, with a .291/.333/.457 line. Andrus’ .165 ISO is leaps and bounds above anything he did at the minor league level. ZiPS suggests that we shouldn’t go hog-wild just yet: Andrus is projected to hit .250/.303/.337 from here on out, with a .291 wOBA. Still, the Rangers have to be highly encouraged.

Rich Hill, Orioles

Baby steps: Coming off a disastrous 2008 campaign in which he walked the yard and lost all semblance of fastball control, Hill has 12 punchouts in 11.1 frames. He’s still fighting himself, however, with 6 free passes. The 29 year-old’s signature low-70’s curve has shown plenty of bite (with 8.2 inches of “dropping” action, the hook is falling nearly twice as much as the average lefty curve, and more than Hill’s 7.1 career average when Pitch F/X is watching).

Hill continues to throw his curve and fastball from two different arm slots, though I won’t pretend to know whether or not the batter could pick up on such a nuance. The difference doesn’t appear to be extreme:

See that one red dot? Hill has dropped down sidearm to throw a slider once in each of his first two starts.

Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks

The D-Backs rank just 24th in the majors in wOBA, but don’t blame Reynolds. He holds a .398 wOBA, with 12 home runs and a .284 ISO. He’s still coming up empty as often as any one (36.1 K%), but Reynolds is working the count well (12.4 BB%) while reducing his Outside Swing% for the third consecutive year (from 26.1% in 2007 to 20.6% this season).

Stock Down

Rich Harden, Cubs

The A’s received plenty of flak last summer for parting with Harden, whose transient brilliance can intoxicate GM’s and fantasy owners alike. The reason Oakland received only a middling package of prospects is the same reason why Harden will always be a second or third-tier fantasy starter: he’s never upright for more than a few months at a time. Whiffing nearly 11 batters per nine innings, Harden hits the DL with a back strain.

A.J. Burnett, Yankees

Burnett’s five-year pact with the Bombers was considered a significant risk from a health standpoint, but he was expected to perform quite well when available. So far, that hasn’t been the case: fresh off a 3.45 FIP with the Blue Jays, Burnett has posted a 5.27 FIP in 58 innings. Some of that is poor luck on flyballs- his HR/FB% is somewhat high at 14.3 percent. Still, his strikeout rate is down (7.76 K/9 in 2009, 9.39 in 2008), he’s walking too many batters (4.19 BB/9), and he’s surrendering far more flyballs this season. His 41.7 GB% is significantly lower than his 48.5% mark in 2008, which in turn was quite a bit lower than his 54.8% figure in 2007. Considering that seemingly innocuous flyballs are whizzing out of new Yankee Stadium at a dizzying pace (1.62 HR park factor), that’s not a positive trend.

Emmanuel Burriss, Giants

Granted, this Kent State product was never expected to knock balls into the gap with regularity, but this is getting a little ridiculous. Burriss has three extra-base knocks on the season, good for a .021 ISO. His wOBA sits at .284. Coupled with a so-so 11-for-15 in the SB department and a false start with the leather (-7.6 UZR/150), Burriss has been below replacement-level thus far. There are rumblings that Burriss may begin losing playing time to Kevin Frandsen.

Chris Davis, Rangers

Punching out regularly certainly doesn’t preclude a hitter from being highly productive, but Davis has resembled a Dave Kingman/Rob Deer love child in 2009. He has whiffed an astounding 43.5% of the time, lapping the competition: Carlos Pena ranks a distant second, at 36.3%. The 23 year-old is crushing what he can touch, with 10 homers and a .231 ISO. However, he’s swinging at most everything (35.2 Outside Swing%) while making the least amount of contact of any batter in the majors, at 58 percent. The result is an ugly .264 OBP and a .300 wOBA.

Francisco Liriano, Twins

Liriano had a highly promising return to the Twinkies last year (3.87 FIP, 7.93 K/9), but the 25 year-old southpaw has been torched for a 5.28 FIP in 2009. Placing a below-average 45.9% of his pitches within the strike zone, Liriano has issued 4.44 BB/9. Not surprisingly, his release point has been all over the place. For example, here’s his last start against the White Sox, on May 20th:

Hopefully sometime last week you were able to pull off a Kosuke Fukudome for Justin Upton trade. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of trade targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Jose Guillen – Much like Raul Ibanez, Guillen goes through streaks where he just crushes the ball. In 2008 he had a 31-game stretch where he batted .369 with 8 HR and 29 RBIs. In 2007 he had a 53-game stretch where he batted .336 with 10 HR and 42 RBIs. He was hurt in 2006 but in 2005 he had a 30-game stretch where he batted .327 with 8 HR and 21 RBIs. So what, you may be thinking, you can find lots of guys with streaks like that if you cherry pick the end points. Well, how many of those guys are likely to be on the waiver wire or not valued highly by their current owners? Guillen spent a couple of weeks on the disabled list but now looks like he’s going on one of those hot spells. Get him and enjoy a month of great production at very little cost to you.

Cliff Lee – Okay, with a 1-4 record and an ERA approaching four, Lee is not going to win the Cy Young Award this year. But his peripherals show a pitcher who should be solid from here on out. Lee has a 2.80 K/BB ratio, his HR/9 is at a nice 0.69 percent and the 90.9 he is averaging on his fastball is a career best. Lee is being hurt by a .364 BABIP. His lifetime mark in the category is .304 and he has never had a mark over .315 in his career.

Kendry Morales – After failing to win a full-time job the past three seasons, Morales fell into the “Overrated Cuban Star” category. But with little competition for the first base job, Morales figures to get 500 or more at-bats this season. And the last two years at Triple-A, he has a .341 batting average. He is probably not a threat to hit 30 HR, but a guy who can hit .315 with 20-25 HR in your corner infield slot is not a bad thing to have.

Rich Harden – The usual MO with Harden is he’s great when he’s healthy but you have no idea how long he’ll be able to hold it together. This year he’s been (knock on Kerry Wood) healthy, but the results have been less than stellar, with two of his five starts being pretty awful. Right now he is being really hurt by walks and the long ball. Harden always walks his fair share of batters but the HR rate is likely to go down. He has a lifetime HR/9 of 0.73 and only once has he posted a rate over 1, with his 1.05 mark in seven games in 2007. Right now, Harden’s HR/9 sits at 1.82 after five starts. If you need to make up ground in pitching, this is a high-risk, high-reward gamble to consider.

Troy Tulowitzki – A 4-for-39 stretch is really dragging down Tulowitzki’s overall numbers at this point. But I like the .200 ISO and I just cannot see the combination of a 25.3 percent strikeout rate and a .245 BABIP lasting for much longer.

Trade

Hunter Pence – If you were going to describe Pence, how would you do it? Is he an average hitter or a HR guy or a SB threat? Perhaps he contributes in every category but does he really help you in any of them? His batted ball profile (12.8% LD, 60.3% GB, 26.9% FB) suggests average hitter, but he has a .300 AVG with a .319 BABIP. It is hard to imagine the average staying that high going forward. It looks like 2008 is the high end of what to expect from Pence, and that is only if he can keep his HR/FB ratio in double digits, something no one else of the 18 players with a GB rate over 50 percent was able to accomplish last year.

James Shields – The strikeouts are down, the walks are up, the home runs allowed are up and yet somehow Shields’ ERA is almost identical to where it was a year ago. It is funny what a .245 BABIP and an 81.7 percent strand rate can do for a fellow. Sell high before the hits start falling in against him.

Magglio Ordonez – The batting average will probably rebound some but the power is gone. He hit two home runs in April, which was the eighth-straight month in which he failed to hit more than five homers. See if you can find someone who remembers 2007-vintage Ordonez and views him as a buy-low candidate.

Jason Marquis – It was hard to imagine a worse fit than Marquis pitching in Colorado. He had a lifetime 1.42 WHIP and a 1.51 K/BB ratio. So of course right now he is sitting at 4-1 with a 3.31 ERA, a 1.42 K/BB and a 1.19 WHIP. It is going to be hard to find someone who wants to trade for him, but at the very least ask around and see if you can find a taker.

Jeff Francoeur – All we hear these days is how newspapers are in trouble. Papers are either shutting down or are on life support. Even the venerable Boston Globe is on shaky ground. But you never hear anything about the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. And that is because they write at least one glowing article on Francoeur per week. He has reworked his swing and he is not striking out. This is a player that it seems people are actively rooting for to do well. Yet his average is nothing to get excited about and he is not hitting for great power. And it is debatable if he is going to maintain a K% less than half of his career average going forward.

*****

We are discussing having either a mail bag or a live chat to answer trade questions. So, instead of posting trade proposals and asking for feedback, please respond as to which of the two formats you would prefer seeing. A mail bag is easier on our end and is something we could get going sooner. A live chat offers a much quicker response but will require the RotoGraphs authors to coordinate our schedules, which may not match yours.

As always, comments on the individual players listed here are welcome and encouraged.