Archive for Relievers

For the first three weeks of the season, the Phillies’ closer situation was as murky as any in the majors. That all seemed to change when, in the span of four days, Hector Neris picked up a pair of saves and also pitched a perfect ninth inning in a tie game at Colorado. Neris’ two performances at Coors Field were especially impressive, as he pitched 2.2 innings without allowing a baserunner and tallied five strikeouts.

Neris was the Phillies’ closer around this time last season, but by late May, he was out of the saves picture. The flyball-prone righty did not lack for whiffs or strikeouts, but too much of the contact he allowed was hard. That propensity hurt Neris again on Thursday night, as he gave up a game-winning home run to Starlin Castro in the 10th inning of the Marlins’ 3-1 victory. To his credit, Neris has been getting more ground balls so far this year, but flyballs and line drives have been hit against him with an average exit velocity of 98.0 mph.
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By now, we have all become aware of the home run explosion that’s occurred in the early weeks and the appearance of a juiced ball. High-leverage relievers have not been immune to the deluge of dingers. Josh Hader, Matt Barnes and Kenley Jansen all allowed home runs on Sunday that led to a loss or a blown save. The three normally-reliable relievers have teamed up to allow seven home runs over their last 8.1 innings combined. Hader has allowed homers in each of his last three appearances, Barnes has allowed one in each of his last two outings, and Jansen has given up two homers over his last three appearances.

Despite the rash of long balls, it’s far too soon to be concerned about any of the three. Hader is still missing bats at a stratospheric rate, sporting a 22.8 percent SwStr%. However, his flyball rate of 72.2 percent is even more otherworldly. It’s nearly double the major league average of 36.7 percent. Not only is Hader letting the ball get lofted, but hitters are making a lot of hard contact on those airborne balls, averaging 97.4 mph in exit velocity (per Baseball Savant). As he accumulates more innings, this could become a real problem barring some serious regression, even with his healthy whiff rate.
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The Phillies, Red Sox and Twins have made it difficult to know who we can rely on for saves, but that’s been pretty much by design. Suddenly, the Braves’ bullpen has become possibly the toughest one to figure out.

When the Braves placed Arodys Vizcaino (shoulder) on the IL on Sunday, that appeared to actually simplify their bullpen situation, as A.J. Minter figured to inherit virtually all of the save opportunities. The lefty fared well enough on Sunday night, pitching a perfect ninth inning in a Braves 7-3 win over the Mets. The stakes were a little higher on Tuesday night, as Minter was charged with keeping the score knotted at 6-6, giving his offense a chance to top the Diamondbacks in the bottom of the ninth inning with a single run. It took only two pitches for Minter to allow the Diamondbacks to surge ahead, as Christian Walker drove a cutter in the middle of the strike zone for a solo home run. He was charged with two more runs when Jacob Webb allowed an Adam Jones double that brought in two inherited baserunners.
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Perplexing bullpen situations did not get less perplexing on Sunday.

After the Phillies’ 3-1, 14-inning win over the Marlins, I am leaving their portion of the closer grid untouched, but that hardly means that the saves picture is getting clearer. Brian Anderson‘s home run in the bottom of the sixth inning knotted the game up at 1-1, and it would stay that way for seven-and-a-half innings. Because the Phillies were the visiting team, it’s hard to read too much into Gabe Kapler’s choice to use Pat Neshek in the seventh, Adam Morgan and Hector Neris in the eighth and David Robertson in the ninth and 10th.
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We often begin this column with the grisly details of the latest reliever meltdown. So why not start things off this time with some good news?

A pair of closers who had forgettable 2018 seasons are off to a nice start in 2019. Ken Giles recorded his third save in as many tries on Tuesday, securing the Blue Jays’ 7-5 win over the Red Sox. He has yet to allow a run in 5.2 innings, though this appearance was a little more eventful than his past ones from this season. Giles issued his first walk of the year, which came on the heels of a Dustin Pedroia leadoff single. Then he needed all of three pitches to retire Blake Swihart and Andrew Benintendi, and after going to a full count on Mookie Betts, Giles finished him off by getting him to chase a low slider.
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Since writing the initial 2019 Bullpen Report after the Mariners-Athletics series in Tokyo, three closer competitions have been decided. As expected by many owners, Will Smith and Alex Colome respectively nailed down the Giants’ and White Sox’s closer jobs. In a much more surprising move, Torey Lovullo chose Greg Holland as the Diamondbacks’ closer over Archie Bradley and Yoshihisa Hirano. Fantasy owners are starting to warm up to Holland, as he is now owned in 44 percent of CBS leagues and 20 percent of ESPN leagues. I recently made the case for adding him, so rather than present that argument here, I simply refer you to the piece I wrote on him.
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I came here to defend Greg Holland. But before I do, I want to talk a little about Mark Melancon.

The year was 2015. Melancon’s velocity was down, both on his four-seamer and cutter, through the first two months, but he started to overcome a rough start to the season (.292 Avg allowed through May 15) in the latter part of May. Then his velocity rebounded closer to his 2014 levels over the season’s final four months.
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Welcome to the 2019 RotoGraphs Bullpen Report!

As in past seasons, we will update and publish our team-by-team bullpen grid on a daily basis and provide analysis on relievers to pick up, drop or monitor. I’m unveiling the first iteration of the grid just below, and then we will begin our daily updates beginning next Friday.

With a week to go until Opening Day, Part 2, one-third of the closer situations are still very much in flux. For each of those 10 teams, I have denoted the relievers in the grid as being part of a committee. With the possible exception of the Giants, Diamondbacks and White Sox, a committee is a probable outcome for these teams once the season gets under way.
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Over the last several weeks, I have been writing about the closer picture for teams who are unlikely to contend, but are likely to deal an incumbent closer before the trade deadline. While this year’s Hot Stove season has generally moved slowly, there have been a number of moves and announcements involving relievers lately, so I’m taking the opportunity to update some of the situations I have written about recently. I am also tossing in a couple of closer conundrums from teams that I have yet to address this offseason (including one from a clear contender). Both situations are already starting to vex owners getting ready for drafts.
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In this series, I have focused on pitchers who are likely to close for teams that project to be sellers at the deadline, as well as the potential replacement closers for when said pitchers get traded. For most teams, that has meant taking a look at a total of four or five relievers. In the case of the Tigers, there are really only two relievers who matter: Shane Greene and Joe Jimenez. Ron Gardenhire has named Greene as his closer, With Alex Wilson gone, Jimenez remains as the only viable closer-in-waiting, and it’s no secret that he is being groomed to be the Tigers’ next closer.
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