Archive for Reds

My first reaction to Maikel Franco agreeing to sign a one-year, $2.95 million deal with the Royals was one of slight disappointment. After four years of being roughly league-average or worse, I did not have high expectations for Franco going into 2020, but in leaving one of the majors’ best home run parks for right-handed hitters for one of the worst, my expectations got even lower.

Then in looking over Franco’s stats as a Phillie, something occurred to me. He has an incredibly similar profile to another third baseman who has been a much better home run hitter than Franco has been in recent years. While Franco has averaged 22.5 at-bats for every home run going back to 2016, this other third baseman has needed only 16.3 at-bats per homer over the same period. Here is how these two third basemen have stacked up for each of the last four seasons.

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This is not the first time that I will be pointing out that Brad Hand has been going through a rough patch in recent weeks, but it is the first time in awhile that there are some encouraging signs to report. Hand’s save against the Twins on Sunday — his 34th of the season — was not entirely without drama, as he put LaMonte Wade Jr. on first base with two outs with a hit-by-pitch and then moved him up to second base with a four-pitch walk to Jonathan Schoop. It took seven pitches, but Hand ended the threat by striking out recently-acquired Ryan LaMarre with a 92.9 mph fastball on the inside edge of the strike zone.

It’s that fastball velocity that should have Hand’s fantasy owners breathing a sigh of relief. He threw 14 fastballs, and they averaged 92.1 mph in velocity. This marks the first time in five appearances that his average fastball velocity exceeded 92 mph. However, only one of his 22 total pitches induced a swinging strike, so there is still some reason for concern. While Hand has held the opposition scoreless in five of his last six outings, his SwStr% over that span is still just 8.5 percent.
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No relief appearance from Sunday’s games was more meaningful than Carlos Carrasco’s inning of work against the Rays. Pitching in his first game since being diagnosed with leukemia in June, Carrasco came in for the bottom of the seventh inning with the Indians behind by a 4-1 score. He began by inducing a pair of ground ball outs, and then Carrasco yielded a Tommy Pham double and a Travis d’Arnaud RBI single. He finished off the inning with a third groundout, this one off the bat of Joey Wendle.

The Reds’ bullpen has had its share of tumult of late, and the roller coaster ride continued on Sunday. They entered the day with a doubleheader against the Cardinals just completed and another doubleheader just ahead of them. In the nightcap of Saturday’s twin bill, Raisel Iglesias let a one-run lead and a split slip away, as Harrison Bader’s RBI single tied the game up at 2-2. He left runners on first and second base with no one out for Kevin Gausman, who allowed Matt Carpenter to hit a walk-off RBI single.
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A few lineups are sure to get scrambled when rosters expand on Sunday. Before we get inundated with all of the roster additions, here are some recent lineup and batting order changes we’ve seen in the National League.

Arizona

Based on the four games the Diamondbacks have played since David Peralta (shoulder) went on the IL, it would seem that Ketel Marte and Josh Rojas can count on regular playing time in outfield, with Jarrod Dyson filling in for both occasionally. When Dyson plays center, Marte tends to shift to second base, whereas Rojas could get the occasional day off, like he had on Tuesday against the Giants. Right field has been a mix of Dyson, Adam Jones and Tim Locastro. Across all three outfield positions, Dyson should play fairly steadily against righties, but Jones and Locastro appear destined to remain in reserve roles.
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It feels like bullpens settled in over the last few days but blips always arise. There’s no impending change in Cincinnati, but it will be intriguing to see if the Reds move Raisel Iglesias in the off-season. Iglesias entered last night’s outing having converted his last nine save chances. However, a lead-off single by Colin Moran followed by consecutive hits from Jose Osuna and Adam Frazier tied the game in Pittsburgh resulting in Igelsias’ fourth blown save and first in over a month. Jacob Stallings bunted two runners into scoring position, the only out recorded by Iglesias before a walk-off single by Pablo Reyes resulted in loss number nine for Iglesias. With the Reds retooling for next year, they seem to be building a solid bullpen leading up to their closer, especially Amir Garrett and Robert Stephenson. Garrett recorded his 19th hold with a clean eighth inning striking out one. Stephenson tossed a clean seventh with a strikeout during a tied game. Over his last 11 appearances, Stephenson owns a 0.73 ERA with a 0.65 WHIP and 15:4 K:BB spanning 12.1 innings.

Pittsburgh’s Felipe Vazquez notched his fourth win in relief working a clean top of the ninth. It’s been slim pickings for Vazquez in terms of save chances since the inception of the second half, which could create a unique buying opportunity for 2020 when fantasy players focus on save totals, not performance. Focus on Vazquez’s 14 strikeouts versus two walks in 11.2 innings since the All-Star break with no earned runs and a minuscule 0.51 WHIP in them.

Perhaps turning the corner, Brad Hand snapped a personal three game skid of blown saves securing his 30th save last night. Hand yielded a lead-off single to Alex Gordon but erased him quickly inducing a double play ground ball by Cheslor Cuthbert before ending the game on a Bubba Starling ground out. More important than the save, Hand getting his outs via grounders compared to fly balls. Hand’s 41.8 fly ball percentage this year represents a career high, but any migration towards his old career 43 percent ground ball rates would be welcomed by his owners. There’s no guarantee Carlos Carrasco will even make it back to Cleveland despite all of our best wishes. First, here’s an update regarding his rehab outings going forward:

Carlos Carrasco will throw “2ish” innings for Columbus on Sunday. He’ll take a few days off, then pitch another inning, take another few days off and toss another frame after that.

Tito: “Put him in the bullpen and he has a chance to do some special things.”

— Mandy Bell (@MandyBell02) August 23, 2019

Second, Carrasco could figure into late inning match-up situations like Cody Allen used to share with Hand in September as covered in this link from Indians beat writer, Paul Hoynes. Stay tuned and continued prayers for Cookie in his battle with Leukemia.

A marathon in New York ended with the Braves emerging victorious after 14 innings. Mark Melancon locked down his fifth save, and fourth in a row striking out one in a scoreless appearance. Luke Jackson garnered his seventh win in relief working two scoreless frames allowing two hits with two strikeouts. Shane Greene logged his fifth straight scoreless outing with a clean eighth inning. Chris Martin pitched a scoreless ninth inning and has retired 12 of the last 13 hitters he’s faced. Seth Lugo fired two scoreless innings for the Mets in a tied game walking two and striking out four. He lowered his home ERA to 1.86 in the process. But, Lugo needed 38 pitches over his two innings so he’s likely unavailable on Saturday. This could result in a save chance for Edwin Diaz. He turned in a clean 10th inning keeping the game tied with two strikeouts and riding a four game scoreless streak. Jeurys Familia absorbed his second loss allowing two hits, an earned run and two walks with three strikeouts in the top of the 14th inning. He’s only given up five earned runs since July seventh but owns an 18:16 K:BB in this stretch, tread lightly.

Matt Magill recorded his third save with a clean ninth inning against the Blue Jays. Since he’s received each of the last four save chances for the Mariners, his shared status with Anthony Bass has been removed on the closer chart. Not sure Magill can stay hot, but since joining Seattle, his 15 strikeouts versus three walks in 12.1 innings will keep him in the ninth inning. Austin Adams will continue his rehab in the minors and could be a factor down the stretch, but his health can be fickle. Do not forget about Adams next year if he makes it back from his rehab.

Quick Hits: Aaron Slegers gets his first save working the last three innings against the Orioles. Slegers allowed three hits and an earned run, but all saves count the same in the books…Speaking of Baltimore, they placed Shawn Armstrong (right forearm strain) on the injured list to provide him with some rest. This puts Hunter Harvey even closer to a save chance and probably the last chance to stash him if desperate for a save in the Orioles bullpen…Kyle Zimmer will work exclusively from the stretch going forward. He fired two scoreless innings against Cleveland yielding a hit and walking one with two strikeouts last night…Save number 31 for Roberto Osuna working for the fourth time in the last five games. With Ryan Pressly on the injured list, Houston will likely ride Osuna hard. Monitor his workload…Jeremy Jeffress allowed an unearned run in the ninth inning. Josh Hader would have worked if the no-hitter was in play…Buck Farmer gets his 12th hold giving up two runs on a home run to Miguel Sano. Joe Jimenez coughed up a solo home run to Jake Cave in a non-save outing in the ninth…Sergio Romo allowed two urns on three hits in two-thirds of an inning…Alex Colome tossed a clean ninth inning getting in work with a strikeout…Luke Farrell fired two clean innings with two strikeouts for Texas…Miami’s not recorded a save since July 24th.

When the Rockies opened their series against the Marlins on Friday night, it was business as usual for Scott Oberg, who tossed a scoreless inning to record his fifth save of the season. On Saturday, in response to feeling heaviness in his right arm, Oberg ultimately underwent a procedure to remove a blood clot from the arm. He was placed on the IL on Sunday, and in all likelihood, he will not pitch again this season.

With Oberg out, the Rockies turned to recently deposed closer Wade Davis to finish off a game they were leading 4-3 heading into the top of the ninth inning. Davis faced three batters, but he did not retire any of them. He began by walking Jorge Alfaro and then had two runners in scoring position as a result of a Lewis Brinson double. Then Davis blew the save by allowing a Neil Walker single. Carlos Estévez took over from there, but he allowed the Marlins to tack on two more runs, which were both charged to Davis.
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Trevor Bauer, the National Fantasy Baseball Championship’s No.-9 starting pitcher and No.-31 player overall, has pitched to the tune of a 4.12 ERA this year. All things considered (“things” being, primarily, the juiced ball), Bauer hasn’t been awful. But after compiling a pristine 2.21 ERA in last year’s breakout with equally pristine ERA estimators to boot (3.14 xFIP, 3.21 SIERA), this year’s peripherals (4.35 xFIP, 4.21 SIERA) are far less inspiring, even when adjusted for context.

The easiest way to write off Bauer’s 2018 season as an aberration is, well, to look at everything else he has ever done. He sports a career 3.97 ERA, with just one season (2018) with an ERA under 4.00. The blind squirrel who took an approach as simplistic as this in 2019 would have invariably found a nut.

Such an approach, however, would grossly undersell Bauer’s gains in 2018, which were quite legitimate. Using the most basic of peripherals, Bauer’s swinging strike rate (SwStr%) took the best 3rd-biggest step forward in nominal terms, behind only Patrick Corbin (and his slider) and Gerrit Cole (and his fastball).

Yet 2018 gains do not necessarily beget sustained excellence. Bauer’s narrative is a fairly complex one, so let’s give it proper attention.

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The trade deadline produced some playing time winners and losers across the National League. While it’s premature to know how some of these situations will play out, the Reds, Cubs and Phillies in particular already have some interesting developments that are worth paying attention to.

Arizona

It appears that Torey Lovullo has at least two platoons in place, with Jake Lamb and Christian Walker splitting time at first base and Jarrod Dyson and Wilmer Flores sharing a spot in the lineup (with Ketel Marte starting at second base versus righties and in center field versus lefties). Neither of these is a strict platoon, but these are the tendencies that Lovullo has shown over the past week. A third platoon may be developing, as David Peralta has received each of the last five starts in left field against a righty, but Tim Locastro has taken two of the last three against a left-handed starter.
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Excitement from signing Craig Kimbrel could be shifting to concern for Cubs fans. Kimbrel suffered his second blown save allowing two home runs resulting in three earned runs without recording an out in Milwaukee. Christian Yelich hit a solo shot leading off the inning, then a walk to Tyler Saladino preceded a two-run walk-off home run by Keston Hiura in the bottom of the 10th inning. This outing snapped Kimbrel’s consecutive save streak at six, but concern lies within four home runs yielded in 10.2 innings this season along with eight walks resulting in a 6.75 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. There’s time for Kimbrel to round into form, but with three teams within one game in the division, it’s a fine line to walk, no pun intended.

Freddy Peralta coughed up a solo home run to Albert Almora in the top of the 10th giving the Cubs a one run lead. But, he garners the win as a result of the rally in the bottom of the inning. Peralta seems to be cementing his role as second in line for high leverage with Milwaukee. He’s recorded two wins and a save in his last three appearances giving up the one earned run over four innings with six strikeouts versus one walk. Limiting free passes will ultimately determine Peralta’s success as a reliever over the last two months.

Ceding a four run lead in the ninth inning, Tampa Bay’s relievers once again struggled. Oliver Drake did not register an out giving up a double to Lourdes Gurriel Jr. then walked Eric Sogard leading to a three-run home run by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Adam Kolarek replaced Drake retiring Cavan Biggio then the Rays replaced him with Colin Poche for the save chance. Poche struck out Danny Jansen before serving up a home run to Brandon Drury tying the game. Of interest, passing over Emilio Pagan with two right-handed batters due up for Poche. Pagan took over in the bottom of the 11th inning walking two but escaping the inning unscored upon. However, in the 12th, he yielded the walk-off winning home run to Teoscar Hernandez leading off the inning.

Daniel Hudson nets his sixth win as a result working a clean top of the 12th striking out one. Ken Giles tossed a clean 10th inning after David Phelps logged a clean ninth with a strikeout. Tim Mayza filled in the gap working a scoreless 11th inning striking out two. For this game, the Blue Jays bullpen not only outlasted the Rays, it outperformed them.

After a five day respite, Raisel Iglesias fired a clean ninth with two strikeouts en route to his 18th save. This outing snapped a three game streak allowing at least a run by Iglesias. He’s been in trade rumors and could thrive with a change in scenery. So far in July, Iglesias owns an enticing 12:2 K:BB rate with a 0.96 WHIP and 4.83 ERA. Hope lies within his 3.09 xFIP this month. Michael Lorenzen recorded his ninth hold working 1.2 scoreless innings giving up a hit and a walk with a strikeout. Wandy Peralta gets his second hold with 1.1 clean innings.

A bumpy ride, but Mychal Givens held on for his ninth save yielding a run over 1.1 innings allowing a hit and two walks with two strikeouts. He’s given up runs in consecutive outings but notched a save in three of his last five appearances. Richard Bleier garnered his second win with a clean inning striking out one. Ty Buttrey suffered his fifth loss allowing two hits and two earned runs in one-third of an inning.

Some trade news with Jake Diekman heading to the A’s bullpen. He may not report until Tuesday but will bolster its depth giving them another left-handed reliever for high leverage. Miami dealt Sergio Romo to the Twins. Romo could serve the role vacated by Blake Parker as the right handed complement to Taylor Rogers. This shifts Nick Anderson atop the Marlins hierarchy, however, his time there could be fleeting:

The assumption is Nick Anderson will close, but there is a chance Anderson may be dealt by the #TradeDeadline #Marlins

— Joe Frisaro (@JoeFrisaro) July 28, 2019

Owners looking for the next save for Miami will add Anderson if he’s available and hope he does not get moved. Stay tuned.

Quick Hits: Matt Barnes notched his 18th hold striking out four in 1.1 innings giving up a hit. Nathan Eovaldi struggled again allowing three hits and two earned runs with two strikeouts in an inning. Brandon Workman pitched a clean ninth with a four run lead striking out two…Chad Green yielded five hits leading to four earned runs in 2.1 innings with two strikeouts…A non-save outing for Alex Colome resulted in a clean ninth with a strikeout. Aaron Bummer pitched two-thirds of an inning walking one. Evan Marshall logged 1.1 scoreless innings allowing a hit with two strikeouts…Save number nine for Liam Hendriks striking out two and giving up a hit. In July, Hendriks has pitched 10.2 innings with a robust 16:1 K:BB and 1.69 ERA…Jose LeClerc retired the only hitter he faced via strikeout. He’s fired 5.2 clean innings over his last seven appearances with nine strikeouts.

**Post-publish update: Seattle made the following roster move which will be updated on Monday in our closer hierarchy:

The #Mariners have announced the following roster moves: Reinstate RHP Hunter Strickland from 60-day IL; Option RHP Matt Carasiti to AAA Tacoma (postgame 7/27); Transfer RHP Félix Hernández from 10-day IL to 60-day IL.

— Mariners PR (@MarinersPR) July 28, 2019

In spite of a limited slate which shrunk due to a postponement in Washington, plenty of high leverage events occurred on Monday night. Starting in Pittsburgh in a game which required extra innings to be decided, both bullpens pitched well until the 10th inning. Clay Holmes coughed up a grand slam to Paul Goldschmidt providing the Cardinals with what seemed to be a comfortable lead. Chasen Shreve took the mound with the four run advantage allowing back-to-back doubles to Starling Marte and Josh Bell leading to a run. This prompted the Cardinals to bring in their closer, Carlos Martinez. This marked his seventh appearance over the last 10 days.

Martinez yielded a home run to Jung-Ho Kang cutting the lead to one run. A single by Corey Dickerson put the tying run on base with no outs. Kevin Newman reached on an error by Paul DeJong putting the go ahead runner on base as well. A bunt by Elias Diaz forced out Dickerson at third base for the first out. Jacob Stallings entered hitting a pinch hit single to left field but St. Louis cut down Newman at the plate for the second out. An Adam Frazier fly out ended the game providing Martinez with his eighth save, and fifth in a row despite the drama. It’s been rocky recently for Martinez yielding runs in four  of his last five appearances but he’s getting the work, perhaps too much as the clear cut closer in this bullpen. Shreve garnered his first win of the season despite giving up two earned runs in one-third of an inning.

In Milwaukee, both bullpens imploded ceding leads resulting in a wild finish. Cincinnati used Michael Lorenzen in the seventh inning in relief of Sonny Gray. Lorenzen worked two-thirds of an inning walking two and striking out one for his eighth hold. Amir Garrett entered with runners on walking Christian Yelich but bounced back to strikeout Yasmani Grandal ending the inning. Garrett returned for the start of the eighth inning but left after allowing a lead-off single to Mike Moustakas. Raisel Iglesias took over against Jesus Aguilar giving up a single then issued a walk to Keston Hiura loading the bases with no outs. Iglesias struck out Orlando Arcia then served up a grand slam to Tyler Saladino, his second in two days. After striking out Ben Gamel, Iglesias then allowed a single to Lorenzo Cain leading to his departure from the game recording two outs with three hits and three earned runs against.

Wandy Peralta took over for Iglesias in the eighth inducing a ground out by Yelich to first base. However, the damage had been done by Iglesias resulting in his third blown save of the season snapping his save streak at 11 in the process. Milwaukee turned to Jeremy Jeffress for the save chance with Josh Hader having worked in back-to-back games over the weekend. Jeffress struck out Derek Dietrich starting the ninth but gave up a one out single to Nick Senzel. Joey Votto grounded out to third letting Senzel move up a base before Eugenio Suarez hit his second two run home run off a Brewers reliever last night. The second Suarez homer handed Jeffress his third blown save and third loss of the year. It’s been migration to the mean for Jeffress battling injury issues and too much traffic on the bases. Cincinnati stayed with Peralta in the bottom of the ninth. He retired Grandal on a lineout to and Moustakas on a fly out. Jared Hughes then entered to face Aguilar but walked him prior to striking out Manny Pina ending the game for his first save of the season.

It’s been a slippery slope predicting saves for the Reds. Iglesias seemed to regain his hold on the job prior to this meltdown. Home runs continue to plague Iglesias with last night’s slam the ninth against him in only 43 innings. He set a career high last year giving up 12 across 72 innings. Perhaps the team will go back to Lorenzen for the next save or Iglesias or eventually go to a fluid match-up bullpen like their pitching coach deployed with his former team Milwaukee last season.

Although it’s been a slow start to the second half for Will Smith, he did not get the save chance on Monday night due to past usage. San Francisco reported Smith unavailable after working six times in the previous 10 days. Sam Dyson recorded his second save, and first since April 13th navigating around a walk and a hit in the ninth inning. Dyson’s not been scored upon in 14 of his last 15 outings while leading the team in appearances (47) this season. He’s emerged as the number two option in a loaded bullpen. Drew Pomeranz made his debut as a reliever hitting 95 MPH on the radar with his fastball and striking out four of the six batters he faced in two clean innings. Trevor Gott gets his second win in as many days pushing his total to seven this year despite allowing an earned run on two hits. Pedro Strop incurred his fifth blown save and fourth loss giving up four hits and three earned runs in the bottom of the eighth leading to the Giants win. Strop’s allowed four earned runs his last three outings spanning three innings.

As reported by Al Melchior in the column yesterday, the Red Sox continue to explore options to bolster their team, including the bullpen. Nathan Eovaldi made his debut as a reliever last night with less than stellar results. Eovaldi yielded five hits, three earned runs and struck out two in two-thirds of an inning. Of more concern, the 112.9 MPH maximum exit velocity on the batted balls against Eovaldi in this outing. It can take time to transition to the bullpen so it may benefit Eovaldi owners to keep him reserved until he gains footing as a reliever.

No official word from the Rangers about who will replace Shawn Kelley as the closer other than Chris Martin and Jose LeClerc could share them. Kelley landed on the injured list with a biceps strain but hopes to return as close the minimum as possible escaping major injury. Stay tuned. In Seattle, Roenis Elias recorded a one out save after Cory Gearrin coughed up a solo home run to Rougned Odor then walked Ronald Guzman and hit Shin-Soo Choo with a pitch with two outs in the top of the ninth. Elias entered getting Danny Santana to fly out stranding both runners for his 12th save.

Quick Hits: Sergio Romo worked a scoreless eighth inning giving up a hit with a strikeout. He’s not received a save chance since July sixth…Save number 15 for Taylor Rogers working around two one out singles by Aaron Judge and Edwin Encarnacion. Rogers moved to 5-for-6 in save chances this month with 14 strikeouts over 10.1 innings with no walks. Lewis Thorpe gets his first win working 2.2 innings allowing four hits and one earned run with two strikeouts…Greg Holland notched his 17th save giving up a hit with two strikeouts. He’s recorded a save in each of his last five appearances with the last three being scoreless. Stefan Crichton gets his first hold with a clean eighth and Yoshihisa Hirano his ninth hold firing a clean seventh.