Archive for Rangers

One day shy of the two-month mark for his stay on the DL, Zach Britton was activated by the Orioles on Wednesday. Buck Showalter wasted no time in getting Britton into a game, calling on him to pitch the seventh inning with a 4-0 deficit to the Brewers. To no one’s surprise, Showalter informed Britton that he plans on returning him to the closer’s role, but he would try to ease him back with a low-leverage situation in his first appearance off the DL.

Wednesday’s appearance certainly qualified, though Britton did not exactly ace this lower-stress situation. His velocity was down a tick, as he averaged 95.1 mph on his 16 two-seamers. Britton needed 19 pitches to get through the inning, throwing just eight strikes, a wild pitch and allowing a Hernan Perez single and an Eric Thames walk.
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On Friday night, a couple of shaky closers dug their holes deeper, but perhaps the greatest stress was felt by Roberto Osuna’s owners. The Blue Jays’ closer has been close to automatic since late April, and he was sorely missed as the Toronto bullpen tried to hold a 4-1 lead without him. John Gibbons told Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet that Osuna was unavailable due to illness, so fantasy owners and Blue Jays fans caught of a glimpse of what the ninth inning might look like without their dominant closer.

At least for this one game, it was not pretty. Ryan Tepera, who got the final out of the eighth inning, was brought back for the ninth to get the save. He came within an out of notching his second save of the season, but he was removed after allowing an RBI single to Alcides Escobar. Aaron Loup was summoned to get Alex Gordon out, but instead, he gave up a run-scoring single on the first pitch. Then Gibbons tried Jason Grilli, but he yielded a Whit Merrifield double that brought in Escobar and Gordon, giving the Royals a walk-off win. Read the rest of this entry »

Ever since Matt Bush took over the closer’s role for the Rangers in mid-April, I haven’t spent much time on him in this space. I haven’t had to — he has been automatic. Through his first 15 appearances as closer, Bush had not allowed an earned run and was 6-for-6 in save opportunities.

The string of earned run-free innings and converted saves ended on Wednesday night. Bush was one out away from his seventh save, protecting a 4-3 lead against the Rays, when Kevin Kiermaier took a first-pitch fastball over the wall in right-center. That was the only baserunner Bush allowed, so despite the blemish on his stat line, he still has a 1.37 ERA and an 0.97 WHIP on the season. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 95

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris to preview the Texas Rangers and the Tampa Bay Rays.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music Approximately 62 min of joyous analysis.

ADP results from NFBC

Jason Vargas (ESPN: 15 percent owned; Yahoo!: 16 percent owned)

Despite a number of high profile injuries to pitchers on both sides of the city, there is some good pitching going on in Los Angeles and the surrounding environs. However, unlike Clayton Kersahw and Hyun-jin Ryu, Jason Vargas is actually available in most leagues.

Veras opened the season well against the Rangers, then was absolutely shelled by the A’s and the Twins in back-to-back starts that pushed his ERA up to nearly 7.00 and his WHIP above 2.30. Since then, Vargas has had three consecutive quality starts, having pitched at least seven innings each time, culminating in his complete game shutout of the Orioles on May 3. Read the rest of this entry »

Of the players likely to go in the first few picks, perhaps the hardest to forecast is Josh Hamilton. Over at Mock Draft Central, Hamilton has been picked as high as second and as low as 18, which is a pretty wide split. Let’s compare that to two other guys who have topped out as the second pick. Jose Reyes has not dropped below eighth and Grady Sizemore’s lowest position was 11th.

Now Hamilton as the second pick is probably a reach, but he is in a group of people to consider at the end of the first round and the beginning of the second. Some analysts think it is crazy to draft Hamilton on the first round when you can get Carlos Lee on the second. Others see the production that Hamilton delivered last year – .304-32-130-98-9 – in his first full season and see room for improvement.

Part of the problem with Hamilton is that so much of his value derives from that high RBI total. He was second in the majors last year and only a second-half slump kept him from posting even gaudier totals in the category. Hamilton had 61 RBIs the first two months of the season and only 26 combined in August and September.

Fantasy owners like HR, SB and AVG because for the most part, the players are in control of their numbers in these categories. Meanwhile, as Jim Rice can tell you, RBIs are dependent on opportunities. It sure helps when you have Wade Boggs and Dwight Evans (or Ian Kinsler and Michael Young) getting on base a ton for you to drive in.

Hamilton’s monster first half coincided nicely with Kinsler’s terrific start. Then when Kinsler faded and then got injured in the second half, Hamilton suffered with him. It was a rough August for Hamilton, but he hit great in September (.366/.443/.516) and still managed just 13 RBIs.

A look at Hamilton’s profile shows nothing outlandish. Yes, his BABIP was high at .339 but nothing to be overly concerned about given his line drive and ground ball tendencies. Hamilton does not hit a ton of fly balls (32.9%) but has a good rate of converting those into home runs (19.2%). The fly ball percentage is low and will probably keep him from ever contending for the HR crown. But the Ballpark in Arlington, where he hit 19 HR last year, should keep him a 30-HR player.

In fantasy football, it is very common to look to capitalize with a QB-WR combo to give yourself a nine, 10 or 12-point connection. This year fantasy baseball players might be wise to do the same with Hamilton and Kinsler. Now you just have to decide which one to draft first.

In the first half of 2008, Ian Kinsler was in the discussion for the most valuable fantasy player, as he posted a .337-14-58-84-23 line. But in the second half of the season, two things happened to Kinsler that seem to happen pretty often. His production took a nosedive and he got hurt.

In 131 plate appearances after the break, Kinsler had a .258/.300/.417 line, which was 228 points of OPS lower than his total from the first half. In his three-year career in the majors, Kinsler has an .891 OPS before the All-Star break and a .755 mark afterwards. Many analysts dismiss splits, especially those involving pre and post All-Star break. But given that Kinsler has shown this for three straight years, perhaps it should be given some extra weight. The heat in Texas can do strange things to ballplayers.

That brings us to injuries. Kinsler’s 2008 season ended when he suffered a sports hernia. In 2007 he missed significant time due to a foot injury. And his rookie season was cut short thanks to a thumb injury. He has yet to play more than 130 games in a season.

Kinsler is in the discussion for top fantasy second baseman due to his power-speed combo. With the uncertainty surrounding Chase Utley, he might even be the first player from the position drafted. Kinsler reported no lingering issues from the surgery and is expected healthy for the start of Spring Training.

But before you spend a high pick on Kinsler, remember that injury history. Some fantasy players will take Kinsler’s 2008 stats and pro-rate them over a full season. That’s a dangerous thing to do given his history. Even with the injury, Kinsler was a top 20 fantasy hitter last year. Expecting him to improve significantly on that seems extra risky, especially once you factor in last year’s .339 BABIP, which was 27 points above his career average.