Archive for Randy Wells

As we sit and wait for all the big-named free agents to find themselves new homes, it’s time to start thinking about strategy for next year.  There are numerous of ways to go about drafting your team and you’re going to hear plenty of do’s and don’ts from a variety of people.  So allow me to chime in here first and tell you why punting saves should not be in your plans when developing a proper draft strategy.  Some people see no harm in it and tell you to just bulk up elsewhere.  I disagree.  It’s an automatic concession of points to your competition and immediately puts you at a disadvantage.

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– Since Ichiro Suzuki’s batting average hit .260 on July 20th, he has really bounced back, at least from a fantasy perspective. The outfielder has hit .314 over his past 36 games, stealing 10 bases in the process. Ichiro has always had high BABIPs, so a .333 mark during this stretch feels just about right. Owners are likely to be down on Ichiro in drafts next year, but he could probably hit close to .300 with 30 steals for yet another season if his recent success to is to believed.

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Notes on three starters in the senior circuit to end your Wednesday, including a Mike Minor update!

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In 2009, Randy Wells was a surprisingly effective cog in the Chicago Cubs’ rotation. The converted catcher and returned 2007 Rule V pick of the Blue Jays posted a 3.05 ERA in 165.1 innings pitched, placing 10th among qualified National League starters. This season, however, Wells has fallen to a 4.92 ERA in 78.2 frames. Has the 27-year-old righty regressed significantly, or are better days ahead?

While Wells’ ’09 performance was sturdy, it is important to note that his gaudy ERA overstated the extent of his dominance. With 5.66 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, Wells had a more modest 4.24 xFIP. The ERA/xFIP dichotomy was the result of a fairly high 76% rate of stranding base runners (the MLB average is usually around 70-72%, though pitcher skill does play some role) and a home run/fly ball rate of eight percent (11% MLB average).

Extreme strand and HR/FB rates have a way of returning toward those big league averages, and we’ve seen that from Wells in 2010 — he’s leaving 67.8% of runners on base, and 9.2% of his fly balls are reaching the bleachers. While a reversal of fortune on those fronts should have been expected, Wells has seemingly gone to the other end of the luck spectrum this season. He’s got a .355 batting average on balls in play, compared to .294 in 2009. Among qualified starting pitchers, only Pittsburgh’s Zach Duke has a higher BABIP.

The first thing that sticks out regarding Wells’ performance on balls put in play is his line drive rate. It’s 25.1% this year, highest among starters and leaps and bounds above his 18.8% mark from last season. Line drives aren’t the most stable metric from season to season, but we know that bad things happen on batted balls classified as liners — line drives in the NL this season have a .975 slugging percentage and a .715 BABIP. Wells’ liners have a .965 SLG% and a .754 BABIP. That’s certainly a contributing factor to his inflated BABIP. But what makes this finding confusing is that just about every other performance measure suggests that Wells isn’t getting hit hard at all.

So far, he has 7.09 K/9. He’s whiffing 18 percent of batters faced this year, up from 15 percent in 2009. Wells’ swinging strike rate, 8.1% last season, has climbed to 10.9% (8-9% MLB average). His overall contact rate is 77.1% in 2010, compared to 81.8% last year (80-81% MLB average). Relative to the big league average, Randy’s outside swing percentage is up — he’s outpacing the MLB norm by 17 percent this year (33.1 O-Swing, 28.2 MLB average) after surpassing it by 11 percent last year (27.8 O-Swing, 25.1 MLB average).

Wells is getting swinging strikes when throwing a fastball 6.8 percent in 2010, compared to 4.3% last season (the MLB average is around six. His slider is getting slightly more whiffs (13.3% in ’10 to 12.8% in ’09, 13.6% MLB average) and his changeup has a 19.4% whiff rate, up considerably from last year’s 13.1% clip (12.6% MLB average). None of these numbers suggest he has gotten easier to hit.

In addition to getting more whiffs, Wells has actually lowered his walk rate slightly to 2.29 BB/9. He continues to get ahead in the count often, with a 61.6 first pitch strike percentage (61.4% last year, 58% MLB average).

Overall, Wells’ xFIP is a tidy 3.68 — over a half-run lower than his 2009 figure. That line drive rate bears watching, but there are many positives to be found in Wells’ “disappointing” follow-up to his celebrated rookie campaign. If he’s available in your league (and with a 51% Yahoo ownership rate, there’s a decent chance that he is), do your team a favor and scoop up a quality starter on the cheap.

Here is the latest update to Week Nine 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

NYM – Mike Pelfrey
CHC – Randy Wells
STL – PJ Walters
LAD – Charlie Haeger

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

LAD – John Ely
CHC – Tom Gorzelanny

In his last three starts Pelfrey has gone 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA. He has Quality Starts in eight of his 10 games and overall has a 2.54 ERA. In the offseason, Pelfrey added a split finger pitch, which he has thrown 18.2 percent of the time with good results (2.9 w/SF). But Pelfrey has also been the recipient of some good fortune. He has a 3.56 FIP and a 4.04 xFIP

Last year in his rookie season, Wells had a 3.05 ERA but a 4.24 xFIP. This year it has been the exact opposite, as his xFIP of 3.33 is significantly lower than his 4.79 ERA. After winning his first three decisions, Wells has struggled in May, as he has a 0-3 record with a 5.68 ERA in five starts this month. In his last outing against the Cardinals, Wells did not retire a batter and allowed six hits and five runs.

An 11th-round draft pick in 2006, Walters made his major league debut last year and has appeared in two games, one start, this season. Walters is a soft tosser but he throws five different pitches. Even though his average fastball speed is just 85.8 mph, it has been a successful pitch, with a 2.96 wFB/C. Walters throws his fastball 61.7 percent of the time. The pitch he throws the next most often is his changeup, which he uses 15.6 percent.

Currently on the disabled list with a foot injury, Haeger is scheduled to be activated for Tuesday’s start against the Diamondbacks. In his first start of the season, Haeger struck out 12 batters in 6 IP. But his other six appearances have been nothing special for the knuckleball pitcher. He checks in with an 0-4 record and an 8.49 ERA. While Haeger has 23 Ks in 23.1 IP, he also has 20 BB for a 7.71 BB/9.

A former 38th-round draft pick lost briefly as a Rule V selection, right-hander Randy Wells never enjoyed elite prospect status. Yet, the 1,143rd player taken in the 2002 draft managed a 3 WAR season as a rookie starter with the Chicago Cubs in 2009. Wells was about as valuable as Randy Wolf and Roy Oswalt. Where did this guy come from, and what should we expect going forward?

The 6-3, 230 pound Wells played his college ball at Southwestern Illinois Community College. He was a catcher back then, and was drafted as a backstop. Wells’ career behind the dish was short-lived, however, as he “hit” to the tune of a .399 OPS in limited playing time between 2002 and 2003. Despite never pitching in high school or in college, Wells tried his hand at throwing heat, instead of whiffing at it.

He transitioned to the mound full-time in 2004, tossing 107.2 IP (15 starts, 21 ‘pen appearances) in the Low-A Midwest League. Wells’ 4.43 ERA looked lukewarm, but he did post rates of 10.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. In 2005, he pitched mostly in the High-A Florida State League, with a late-season cameo in the AA Southern League. In 108 combined innings (10 starts, 37 relief stints), Wells whiffed 9.2 hitters per nine frames, with few free passes to boot (2.4 BB/9). His ERA dipped to 2.83, and his FIP was 2.89.

Perhaps encouraged by Wells’ smooth transition, the Cubs made him a full-time starting pitcher in 2006. Wells began the season back in AA, shredding hitters for 7.8 K/9, 1.88 BB/9 and a 2.65 FIP in 62.1 innings. While his ERA was nearly five after a promotion to AAA Iowa, Wells still held his own with 7.7 K/9, 3 BB/9 and a 3.85 FIP in 69 innings pitched. A .371 BABIP was to blame for the bloated ERA.

Wells still wasn’t considered much of a prospect, failing to crack Baseball America’s top 30 Cubs prospects at any point. Returning to Iowa in 2007, he was pushed back to the bullpen for the most part (just nine starts in 39 games). He compiled a mediocre 4.60 ERA, though his peripherals (9.57 K/9, 3.73 BB/9, 4.00 FIP) were a little more encouraging.

Following that tepid ’07 season, the Cubs chose to keep Wells off the club’s 40-man roster, leaving him unprotected in the upcoming Rule V draft. Chicago liked Wells’ high-80’s to low-90’s sinker, but felt his slider and changeup lagged behind. The Toronto Blue Jays snatched him with the 11th pick, hoping to get some cheap middle-inning relief. While Wells did break camp with the Jays to begin 2008, he made just one appearance before being offered back to the Cubs in mid-April.

While he tossed a few late-season innings in the big leagues, Wells spent another summer in the Pacific Coast League. Pitching mostly in the rotation this time (19 starts in 27 games), Wells had a 4.01 FIP in 118.2 IP. He struck out 7.74 per nine, while displaying better control with 2.58 BB/9.

In 2009, Wells looked destined to spend yet another year in the cornfields. He had a 21/7 K/BB ratio and a 2.89 FIP in his first five starts with the I-Cubs, but he got the big league call in early May when Carlos Zambrano (pulled hamstring) went on the DL after doing his best Ichiro impression down the first base line.

Wells never relinquished his rotation spot, posting a 3.05 ERA in 165.1 innings with the Cubs and finishing 6th in Rookie of the Year voting. What’s in store for Wells in 2010? Is he a good fantasy option?

While Wells was a decent starter in 2009, that very low ERA might lead to some unrealistic expectations heading into next season. He struck out 5.66 batters per nine innings, while issuing 2.5 BB/9. Those aren’t bad rates, and when coupled with slight groundball tendencies (47.9 GB%), Wells was an above-average starter.

However, both his rate of stranding runners and home runs allowed per fly ball suggest that his 2010 ERA is more likely to be in the low-fours. Wells had a 76 left on base percentage, well above the 70-72% average for starters. Perhaps he pitches better from the stretch than most, but that number will probably fall somewhat next year. Also, his HR/FB% was rather low, at eight percent (10-12% average). Wells’ Expected Fielding Independent ERA (xFIP) was 4.24. Useful, but not ace-worthy by any means.

Wells went after batters with four offerings: An 89-90 MPH four-seam fastball, a slightly slower two-seamer with more tailing and sinking action, a low-to-mid-80’s slider and a low-80’s changeup.

Keep in mind that Wells’ pitch run values are look better than they should, due to the aforementioned high strand rate and low HR/FB rate. But his four-seamer and two-seam fastballs checked in at +0.04 runs per 100 tosses, with his slider gobbling up batters with +2.88 runs/100. His changeup wasn’t anything special (-0.67). Wells’ breaking pitch helped him generate a 27.8 outside-swing percentage (25% MLB average). He also did a nice job of getting ahead in the count, with a 61.4 first-pitch strike percentage (58% MLB average).

Attacking righty hitters with that slider, Wells held same-handed batters to a 60 sOPS+ (40 percent better than the league average). Lefties got a bunch of changeups, though, and hit him for a 108 sOPS+ (eight percent worse than the league average).

Wells is worth drafting in NL-only leagues and perhaps in deep mixed leagues, but expecting a repeat of his 2009 season would be quixotic. The 27 year-old is no top-of-the-line arm, but he looks like a solid mid-rotation option. Not bad for a guy who didn’t toss a pitch in high school or college.

Here is the latest update to Week 25 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

HOU – Rodriguez
DET – Jackson
CHC – Wells
TEX – Millwood
CIN – Cueto
ARI – Davis
BOS – Wakefield
MIL – Bush
TEX – McCarthy
CHW – Carrasco

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

BOS – Beckett
CHC – Marquis
CHW – Floyd
CLE – Laffey
TEX – Nippert
ARI – Buckner

Rodriguez has two home starts against pitchers coming off injury/illness this week. Perhaps no elite pitcher has a bigger home/road split than Rodriguez. In Minute Maid Park, he is 8-2 with a 1.58 ERA and a 0.979 WHIP. In road starts Rodriguez is 5-8 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.440 WHIP.

Jackson has allowed five earned runs in back-to-back starts. In his last five games he has a 6.03 ERA yet has gone 2-2 in that stretch.

Wells has also given up five runs in back-to-back starts but in the former outing, four of those were unearned. In his last eight starts, Wells has allowed five-or-more runs four times. He is 2-5 in those eight outings but his ERA is a respectable 3.83 in that stretch.

Millwood is 10-10 this season. Since 2004, he is exactly 63-63. This year the average ERA in the American League is 4.45 and since 2004 Millwood checks in with a 4.38 mark. Despite that average-ness, Millwood is enjoying a fortunate season in 2009. His 4.91 FIP is a career high while his 78.5 percent strand rate is the second-highest of his career.

Cueto had his start last week pushed back due to the flu and is now scheduled to go Tuesday against the Pirates. He finally broke a six-game losing streak on the last day of August and in his last three games before getting ill, Cueto had a 2.76 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 16.1 innings.

Davis has received two runs or less of support in 12 of his 31 games, which helps explain his 7-13 record despite a 4.01 ERA. He has five Quality Starts in his last seven games, yet is 0-3 in that stretch.

Wakefield is scheduled for two starts this week in his first action since receiving a cortisone injection in his spine on September 10th. The veteran knuckleball pitcher had been experiencing weakness in both his back and legs the past few weeks.

Bush is tied with Cueto for the major league lead with 14 HBP. It is even more impressive when you consider that Bush missed over two months with a torn triceps muscle. He does not even have enough innings to show up on the FanGraphs leader boards. Five times this season, Bush has hit multiple batters in a game, including plunking three hitters in an April game versus Pittsburgh.

McCarthy has been unimpressive in three starts since recovering from a stress fracture in his right shoulder. He has limited batters to a .203 average in those three games but has a 5.17 ERA. Two starts ago it was the long ball which did McCarthy in, as he gave up two homers in 6.1 innings against Cleveland. In his last outing he allowed seven baserunners in three innings against Oakland.

Carrasco has just one start this season for the White Sox, but is 5-1 with a 3.24 ERA as a reliever. His primary pitch is a cutter, although he also throws a four-seam fastball and a slider. Carrasco is not a good pickup for his two starts, as he has not exceeded four innings nor 67 pitches in an outing this season.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 18

Scott Baker – Home runs have been the downfall of Baker this season. In his first 10 games of the season, Baker allowed 15 HR in 59.2 IP. But since then, Baker has permitted just 5 HR in his last 50.2 innings. He is 5-1 in that stretch with a 3.86 ERA. Make sure Baker is active for his two road starts this week. Away from the Metrodome, Baker’s ERA is a full run lower than his home mark.

Mat Latos – Despite some trouble with the gopher ball (4 HR in 16.2 IP), Latos has been very impressive in his first three starts. He has a 3.25 K/BB ratio and is averaging 7.02 K/9. Latos’ fastball averages 94.7 and he relies upon it heavily, throwing it over 72 percent of the time. Get him on your roster and active for his home starts this week against the Braves and Mets.

Charlie Morton – Six of his first eight starts for the Pirates have come on the road. This week the people of Pittsburgh will get to see their recent acquisition live two times. In his first two appearances at PNC, Morton has allowed just three runs in 14 IP. Morton has been solid overall for the Pirates, posting a FIP nearly identical to his ERA and averaging 6.52 K/9. Most likely still available on the waiver wire in your league, Morton is a potential keeper for the rest of the season and a nice play for his two home starts this week.

Brad Penny – In his last seven outings, Penny is 1-3 with a 5.31 ERA. He is not getting better with regular work and depending on what the Red Sox do later today, with the trade deadline looming, his rotation spot could disappear, too. So, do not expect two starts from Penny and if he does go twice, do not expect performances that will help your fantasy team.

Randy Wells – His last two full seasons in Triple-A, Wells allowed BABIPs of .345 and .325 with identical 69.5 percent strand rates each year. So, this year in the majors he has a .278 BABIP and an 80.6 percent strand rate. This seems like as good a week as any for the luck to run out, with road starts at the Great American Ball Park and at Coors Field. Put him on the bench.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 18 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

J. Santana, Verlander, Greinke, Cain, J. Vazquez, Haren, J. Johnson, Lackey, Kershaw, Chamberlain, Duke, Kazmir, Harang, Kuroda, Feldman, B. Anderson, Hochevar, Bergesen, Parra, Moyer, Kawakami, Tillman, Hammel, Contreras, Rowland-Smith, Hampton, Stuaffer, G. Gonzalez, French, Holland, Laffey, Petit, Mock, Martin

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 16 and how they did.

Blackburn – Advised to sit. 13.50 ERA, 0 K (!), 2.31 WHIP (2 starts)
Cecil – Advised to start. W, 0.64 ERA, 16 Ks, 1.29 WHIP (2)
Gaudin – Advised to start. 2.77 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.38 WHIP (2)
Lohse – Advised to sit. 4.91 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.27 WHIP (2)
E. Santana – Advised to start. W, 10.24 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.76 WHIP (2)

Hopefully you were able to pick up Miguel Montero and trade Todd Helton last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Obtain

Ben Francisco – Since the end of June, Francisco has been playing virtually every day, most often in left field and with occasional starts in center. In his last 25 games he has a .289/.421/.539 line. He has some room for growth in his HR output and could exceed RoS ZiPS forecast of five dingers. Francisco is owned in only 13 percent of CBS Sports leagues and has the ability to contribute in all five categories, although he is not likely to offer very much in AVG.

Jonathon Niese – The overall Triple-A numbers do not overwhelm you but he won his last five decisions for Buffalo. In his last eight starts in the International League, Niese went 5-1 with a 0.96 ERA, with 13 BBs and 46 Ks in 56.1 innings. In his first start since being promoted, Niese limited the Astros to one run in seven innings in a start at the Juice Box, and retired 17 of the last 18 batters he faced.

Ryan Garko – With the trade to the Giants, Garko should receive regular playing time as the team’s new first baseman. He mashes LHP (.960 OPS this year) and holds his own versus RHP (.772 OPS). That is not great production for a first baseman but with the Giants in need of an upgrade for Travis Ishikawa, it should be enough to keep him in the lineup, something he struggled with in Cleveland. RoS ZiPS sees him with six HRs, a total I would bump up with the playing time boost.

John Lannan – In his last 10 starts, Lannan is 5-2 with a 2.44 ERA but with only 21 Ks in 73.2 innings. I seriously question whether any pitcher can succeed long term with a strikeout rate this low but I believe he can do it for the remainder of the season. From a fantasy perspective it is difficult to advocate a pitcher who has virtually no chance to help in strikeouts but for some odd reason the guys near the top of the leaderboards in Ks are rarely available in trades or on the waiver wire. Lannan is a player who should not cost much who has the potential to help in ERA, WHIP and W.

C.J. Wilson – Usually I avoid mentioning relievers because this is one area where most people are watching the waiver wire like hawks. Yet Wilson has the closer’s role in Texas while Frank Francisco is on the DL and is owned in only 35 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Now Francisco is not expected out for long because of his bout with pneumonia but he has also had problems with tendinitis, so you never know. Wilson should be an immediate add if you set a daily lineup.

Exchange

Garrett Jones – You would have to be living under a rock to miss the slugging exploits of Jones, who has 10 HR in 88 ABs for the Pirates. That has led to some far out numbers, like a .761 SLG, a .432 ISO and a 1.140 OPS. But he also has a 34.5 percent HR/FB rate which will be a tad difficult to maintain going forward. Last year Jones looked like he was going to settle in for a long career as a AAAA slugger. No one doubts that he has power and can be a useful MLB player. But he has little chance of being a star and owners should see if he has any trade value in their league.

Johan Santana – When owners drafted Santana, they were expecting him to be one of the top starters in the game. He was great in April but has struggled to keep that pace since then. Santana has been very good but the production has not matched either the draft slot or the name value. He is 3-4 in his last seven games and has given up 15 runs despite two scoreless appearances. Santana closed 2008 with a great run and he has the ability to do that again. But owners owe it to themselves to explore his trade value and if he can return third-round level value, well that exceeds what Santana has produced so far in 2009.

Erick Aybar – In his last 17 games, Aybar is batting .471 with 16 RBIs, 13 R, and 3 SB. His trade value may never be higher. His BABIP checks in at .347, 30 points above his lifetime mark in the category. Aybar stole 32 bases in Triple-A in 2006 but has just 26 combined thefts between the majors and minors since then in two and a half seasons. And his lifetime .095 ISO tells you he is not likely to contribute any HR, either.

Randy Wells – It has been an impressive year so far for Wells, with 10 Quality Starts in 14 games. But I am concerned about him being able to maintain his current walk rate, which is under two per game. Also, in two full seasons at Triple-A, Wells’ strand rate was under 70 percent both times but so far this year it checks in at 78.9 percent. Add in a BABIP and a HR/FB rate both slightly below average and it adds up to a pitcher who could fall off some down the stretch.

Shane Victorino – He is unlikely to match last year’s totals in either HR or SB. Yet Victorino has been just as valuable a fantasy player because he is on pace to set career-highs in AVG, R and RBIs. Victorino’s BABIP of .342 is 24 points above his previous career best mark in the category. Also, he is walking more than he has previously in his career. Regression in BABIP would hurt him across the board.