Archive for Phillies

On Wednesday night, Tyler Lyons earned his second save of the season, seemingly cementing his position as the Cardinals’ primary option at closer. Yet right around the time Lyons was sewing up a 3-1 win against the Padres in San Diego, Juan Nicasio was en route to join the team, and ultimately, the mix of ninth-inning options.. The Cardinals acquired Nicasio from the Phillies in exchange for minor league second baseman Eliezer Alvarez.

As for Nicasio’s role with his second new team in the span of a week — as the Phillies claimed him off waivers from the Pirates — Mike Matheny told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch he would add the righty to the late-inning mix. Matheny added he could turn to Nicasio for the occasional save.
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Tuesday’s slate of games was a quiet one for saves. There were 16 contests in total, but only six relievers emerged with saves. One of them was Tyler Lyons, whose first career save was the result of a scoreless three-inning effort, in which he allowed three hits, walked none and struck out two.

Things were also eerily quiet on the Phillies’ closer front, as we are now a full week removed from when Pete Mackanin suggested that he may use Pat Neshek in the closer’s role over Hector Neris, at least on a temporary basis. They have gone 0-7 since then and have not had a ninth-inning save opportunity during that time. On Monday, they came close, as the Phillies entered the eighth with a 5-4 lead over the Red Sox. The curious thing was that Neshek had already been used in the seventh, and Mackanin brought Joaquin Benoit in to pitch the eighth. Benoit allowed a two-out solo home run to Hanley Ramirez, thus blowing the save as well as the chance for us to see if Neris would come in for the ninth inning.
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“What makes a man, Mr. Lebowski? … Is it being prepared to do the right thing? Whatever the cost? Isn’t that what makes a man?”

I know how that exchange ends, and you probably do too. Perhaps the Dude’s response to the other Jeffrey Lebowski, the millionaire, was, indeed, right. But maybe there’s something else — something I’ve concocted to make myself feel better. Perhaps what makes a man is the capacity to admit he is wrong.

I was wrong. About Jeremy Hellickson, specifically. In late April, I pegged Hellickson as someone who would regress in his strikeout rate (K%) based on his zone contact rate (Z-Contact%). Technically, I was right — Hellickson’s 75.7% zone contact rate as of April 24 has converged almost all the way back to his career rate of 84.6% (it currently sits at 83.1%).

It’s the change-up I was wrong about. Hellickson’s change-piece posted some filthy outcomes through the end of April. I claimed nothing about the pitch changed. I looked at velocity and movement. I didn’t look at location. Hellickson is spotting the ever-loving crap out of his change-up, and it has worked wonders for him.

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I already wrote about Aaron Nola this year. So, too, have Eno Sarris, August Fagerstrom and Jeff Sullivan. He’s been a big deal.

When I wrote about Nola — barely a month ago, at this point — he kind of took the backseat to rotation-mate Vincent Velasquez, who had recently struck out 16 hitters in a dominant complete game. However, since VV’s first two starts, during which he struck out a combined 25 hitters, he hasn’t struck out more than six hitters in a single game and has shown lapses in command.

Meanwhile, Nola has, somewhat quietly, turned in one of the season’s best first six weeks. He ranks third in pitcher WAR (wins above replacement) behind Clayton Kershaw and the underrated Jose Quintana. But WAR is partly a function of playing time, so this might be an unfair comparison for, say, Kyle Hendricks, who has started two fewer games than Nola.

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Episode 94

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris to preview the Philadelphia Phillies and the Pittsburgh Pirates.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music

Approximately 72 min of joyous analysis.

ADP results from NFBC

In a time where names like Stephen Strasburg, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Gerrit Cole are dominating the headlines, rookie hype is making it awfully difficult for fantasy owners to acquire the services of several youngsters who are supposed to be leading us into a new generation of MLB superstars. But occasionally we get lucky and some diamonds-in-the-rough pass through without too much fanfare and linger on your waiver wire until they break out with a big game that lands them on an ESPN or MLB Network highlight reel. Darin Ruf and Sonny Gray may be well-known to the hardcore fantasy players, but without someone standing on a soapbox with a bullhorn, screaming “Pick this guy up now,” both seem to have slipped through the cracks in many leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

Did you know baseball started yesterday? Because I’m embarrassed to say I didn’t until a certain RotoGraphs editor sent me a profanity laced email for not including player recommendations in yesterday’s Roto Riteup. Today’s edition does have recommendations, though, so that’s pretty awesome.

–  Josh Johnson may have had shoulder problems last year, but he was easily in the 90s during last night’s start against the St. Louis Cardinals. He struggled a bit with his location, though, and the Cardinals took advantage. Johnson is a top-5 pitcher when healthy, and at the price he went for this year, owners could end up with big time value.

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Today’s Roto Riteup features a guy with bad knees, someone who can’t hit, and a man who’s older than the earth himself. Sadly, all three of people are different and not one pathetic man.

–  Chase Utley is not going to be ready for opening day, as his knee problems keep on keepin’ on. I had suspicions that Utley was going to have issues both staying healthy and producing this year, ranking him 20th among second baseman while my compatriots place him an average of 9th. Utley is going to have these problems the rest of his career, so it’s not like you should be expecting a bounceback in keeper leagues.

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Shane Victorino made a great leap forward in 2007, doubling his HR output and seeing a nine-fold increase in his SB totals. He kept those gains in 2008, although in over 117 more plate appearances. Fantasy owners are big believers in Victorino, as he now holds an ADP of 51 according to the latest update over at Mock Draft Central.

Victorino, while no slouch in other categories, gets most of his value from steals. Over the past two seasons, he ranks 10th overall in SB with 73. So the big question for him going forward is how likely is he to maintain his current level of production.

In 2007, Victorino was safe on 37 of 41 attempts for an outstanding 90 percent of his stolen base tries. Last year his success rate fell to 77 percent, still a fine number but off considerably from just a season ago.

The four projection systems that predict SB all show Victorino with less than 30 in 2009. CHONE gives him 23 SB, which is the 46th-best mark in the system. ZiPS has him down for 24, which is tied for 62nd-best in the majors.

Marcel, which uses a weighted average of the past three seasons, gives him 26 SB which ties him for 13th-best. The Bill James system gives him 27 steals.

A 10-bag drop in stolen bases would have a huge impact on Victorino. Those who spend a late fourth or early fifth-round pick on him are betting that he can beat the projection systems. This is not an unreasonable wager, he has done it the past two seasons, but a pick that early values Victorino at the top of his range.

Last Player Picked has Victorino as the 43rd-best hitter in fantasy baseball last year. If he matches what he did last year, he gives you equivalent value for his ADP. But there seems to be very little upside for Victorino there and the real possibility that he turns into a disappointment if he fails to crack 30 steals.

Cole Hamels will be a lightning rod figure between two camps this year. Sure, there is the whole Mets-Phillies thing, with Hamels implying the Mets were chokers, but I was thinking of a rivalry of a different sort. In the scouts versus stats conflict, Hamels should be a test case for the validity of each side.

From the traditional point of view, Hamels put up his second straight outstanding season. He finished 2008 with 14 wins and set career highs in ERA (3.09), strikeouts (196) and WHIP (1.082). Last year Hamels was the seventh-best fantasy starter. He earned an $18.89 dollar value according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. And if that wasn’t enough, Hamels thrived in the post-season, going 4-0 with a 1.60 ERA for the World Champions.

But things do not look so rosy for Hamels in another context. His K/9 dropped for a second straight season and checked in at 7.76 last year. Hamels’ FIP was 63 points higher than his ERA, the 16th-highest mark in the category. He also had a .270 BABIP despite allowing a career-high 21.8 percent LD%. Hamels placed 13th in Baseball Prospectus’ Pitcher Abuse Points list, with only two hurlers ahead of him, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, younger than the Phillies’ lefthander.

And the 25-year-old Hamels also is one of the pitchers susceptible to the “Verducci Effect” in that he increased his workload by 44 innings from the year before.

So far, mock drafters have sided with the traditionalists, as Hamels has an ADP of 41 and is the fourth SP off the board.

Hamels will have to improve on last year’s outstanding season to be worth a fourth-round pick. And there are enough warning signs around him to make passing on him in that slot an easy choice. Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb and Roy Halladay are all being picked behind Hamels in the fourth, with Dan Haren available a round later.