Archive for Paul Maholm

Heading into 2012 the Atlanta Braves were considered by many to have some of the best depth in their rotation. Tim Hudson and Tommy Hanson were the veterans atop the staff, Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy were the young guns ready for the rotation, and Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado were highly thought of prospects. But the rotation looks quite a bit different heading into 2013. Hanson and Delgado are gone. Beachy is out until the summer with an injury. Minor had an up and down year, and Teheran had an ERA over 5.00 in 26 starts at AAA.

But things are not as bad as that last paragraph would make them seem. Read the rest of this entry »

Here is the latest update to Week Two 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

SDP – Kevin Correia
PIT – Paul Maholm

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

SDP – Chris Young

Correia was victimized by the gopher ball in his first outing of 2010. He gave up 3 HR in 6 IP at Arizona. He should have an easier time of things this week with two starts in Petco. Last year in his first season with the Padres, Correia had a 3.68 ERA at home, thanks to a .264 BABIP in Petco. He squares off this week first against the Braves and then ends up with a repeat match against the Diamondbacks.

Maholm had a 7.3 HR/FB rate last year. He gave up a home run already this year in his first game, part of four runs he allowed in six innings. Last year Maholm threw his curve ball and changeup virtually the same number of times. In his first start in 2010, he threw his curve 25.6 percent of the time and his changeup 12.2 percent. Also, Maholm’s velocity was down nearly three mph in his first outing.

Meanwhile, Young is likely to be placed on the 15-day DL on Monday with tightness in his pitching shoulder.

Earlier today, in Part I of the series, I published a chart of 34 pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break and their 2nd half ERAs. Here I want to go into more detail rather than just giving a raw score for the two metrics

In rating the two systems, I considered the metrics to recommend keeping a pitcher if at the All-Star break they were at 3.50 or lower, to listen to a trade if they were between 3.51 and 4.00, to actively look to sell the player if they were between 4.01 and 4.50 and to either sell or cut a pitcher if they were above 4.51.

Of course, we also have to consider what the pitcher’s actual ERA was at the break, too. A pitcher could still be a sell candidate if one of the metrics was significantly higher than his ERA. For these extreme cases, I considered a difference between 50-75 points to be a “listen” candidate, while above 75 to be a “sell high” guy.

Zack Greinke – His xFIP was 101 points higher than his ERA, making Greinke a sell high guy. This was a big win for FIP.

Joel Pineiro – After allowing just three home runs in 17 first half games, Pineiro served up eight home runs in 15 games after the break. This was a big win for xFIP.

Tim Lincecum – It was a very good second half of the season for Lincecum, just not as good as the first half. He did have a slightly higher HR/FB rate in the second half, and xFIP did a better job predicting his post-break ERA. Still, those fantasy owners who kept him based on his FIP did not end up disappointed.

Dallas Braden – Made just four starts after the break due to a foot infection. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to lack of playing time.

Paul Maholm – His second half ERA was lower than his first half one, despite more HR allowed. Still, this was a pitcher that FIP would have identified as a potential buy candidate at the break, so a win for xFIP.

Tim Wakefield – Made just four starts in the second half due to leg and back injuries. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to the lack of playing time.

Clayton Kershaw – He had a 5.0 HR/FB rate at the break and was even better in the second half, as he finished the year with a 4.1 mark. His ERA finished two full runs below what xFIP predicted. This was a big win for FIP.

Derek Lowe – Opponents posted an .888 OPS versus Lowe in the second half of the season, including 10 HR in 331 ABs. This was a big win for xFIP.

Cliff Lee – Everyone thinks the move to the NL turned things around for Lee but he was 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in his first three games with Cleveland after the break. His HR/FB rate has been below 11 percent the past five seasons. This was a big win for FIP.

Carlos Zambrano – This was the closest one, as Zambrano’s second half ERA of 4.14 was just barely closer to his first-half FIP than his xFIP. Zambrano pitched worse in the second half than in the first, but it had nothing to do with his HR rate, which declined slightly from the 5.8 he posted in the first half. This was a slight win for FIP.

Jair Jurrjens – Both FIP and xFIP predicted Jurrjens’ ERA to rise in the second half and instead he pitched even better after the break. If you went strictly by FIP at the break, you would have listened to offers for Jurrjens. If you went by xFIP you were in the sell/cut area. This was a win for FIP.

Jeff Niemann – As with Jurrjens, both of our metrics predicted an ERA rise from Niemann in the second half. FIP had him as a sell while xFIP had him as a sell or cut guy. This was a slight win for FIP.

Nick Blackburn – Yet another pitcher that both metrics forecasted a rise in ERA. Except this time, the actual rise was more drastic than even the more pessimistic xFIP predicted. Since you might have kept him if you used FIP, this was a big win for xFIP.

Edwin Jackson – Pretty much the same thing as with Blackburn above, except you were even more likely to keep Jackson if you used FIP. This was a big win for xFIP.

Mike Pelfrey – The spread with our two metrics was not nearly as great with Pelfrey as it was for Blackburn and Jackson, but the end results were the same. This was a big win for xFIP.

Jon Garland – FIP projected Garland to be virtually the same in the second half as he was in the first half while xFIP had him being noticeably worse. The trade to Los Angeles invigorated Garland, or perhaps it was simply leaving a bad home park, as he finished the year with a 5.29 ERA at Chase Field and a 1.67 ERA at Dodger Stadium. This was a win for FIP, but probably not a pitcher anyone was targeting at the break.

Felix Hernandez – Again, both metrics predicted an ERA rise in the second half, although xFIP was more pessimistic, making him a sell high guy with a difference of 94 points. Hernandez pitched even better after the break, making this a big win for FIP.

Justin Verlander – Both metrics predicted an ERA drop in the second half for Verlander, with FIP being the most optimistic. Verlander pitched well, but saw his ERA go up, making this a win for xFIP.

Brian Bannister – A 3.66 ERA in the first half made Bannister look like a useful pitcher. Both metrics saw an ERA increase, but xFIP was the most pessimistic. This was a big win for xFIP.

C.C. Sabathia – Our two metrics were split on how Sabathia would fare in the second half. With a predicted decrease from his first half ERA, this was a big win for FIP.

Brad Penny – Our two metrics were split again. But Penny’s ERA went up in the second half. This was a win for xFIP, but not many people who used FIP were angling to acquire Penny.

Vicente Padilla – His HR/FB rate went up significantly in the second half, yet Padilla produced a lower ERA after the break, thanks to a move to the NL. Neither metric identified Padilla as a pitcher to target, although FIP came very close to hitting his actual mark.

Jarrod Washburn – Both metrics identified Washburn as a sell candidate as his ERA was 92 points lower than his FIP and 150 points lower than his xFIP. Officially a win for xFIP, although you likely would have made the same decision regardless of which metric you used.

Jered Weaver – A win for xFIP, which had him as a sell, while FIP had him as a listen. There are also extra points for xFIP for exactly predicting his second half ERA.

Joe Blanton – The metrics were split on how Blanton would fare in the second half. This was a big win for xFIP, which forecasted him to be a useful pitcher and he ended up better than that.

Bronson Arroyo – Technically a win for xFIP but not many fantasy players were running out to acquire Arroyo based on his 4.99 first half xFIP.

Jamie Moyer – Repeat the comment from Arroyo, except sub in 5.06 xFIP.

Trevor Cahill – Same as the above two, except with a 5.18 FIP.

Chris Volstad – Our two metrics were split on Volstad. FIP saw him continuing to be a sell/cut guy while xFIP saw him being a useful pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA. This was a win for FIP.

Rick Porcello – Both systems predicted a rise in ERA but FIP elevated him to cut status. This was a win for xFIP.

Braden Looper – The two metrics were split on Looper, with xFIP predicting a drop in ERA. Looper actually pitched worse in the second half but neither system would have advocated acquiring him at the break.

Josh Geer – Made just three starts after the break due to lousy pitching. Not one that either system would have suggested to add.

Rich Harden – While most of the players with above average HR/FB rates have been of little or no value in regards to fantasy, Harden is the exception. Both systems saw him improving on his first half ERA but xFIP was much more bullish. And Harden exceeded those expectations. This was a big win for xFIP.

Randy Johnson – Appeared in just four games after the break due to a rotator cuff strain. Officially a win for FIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to lack of playing time.

*****

If you made your fantasy decisions this year based on xFIP, you would be feeling very good about your choices with Pineiro, Lowe, Blackburn, Jackson, Pelfrey, Bannister, Blanton, Harden and to a lesser extent Maholm, Verlander, Weaver and Porcello.

If you made your fantasy decisions based this year based on FIP, you would be feeling very good about your choices with Greinke, Kershaw, Lee, Hernandez, Sabathia and to a lesser extent Jurrjens and Volstad.

From a pure bulk standpoint, you were better off in 2009 using xFIP at the break. But those who relied on FIP were more likely to make the right call on four of the five pitchers with the lowest ERA in the second half among the 34 pitchers in our sample.

We really cannot make any inferences for the future based on this one small sample. What we can say is that judging strictly from results in 2009 it would be a mistake to ignore FIP completely and absolutely while making fantasy decisions at the All-Star break. This year if you used xFIP you would have made the wrong decisions on some of the best pitchers in the game.

Here on Wednesday in the final week of the season most leagues have already passed their deadline for waivers. But for those of you in daily transaction leagues with moves still available and innings left to play with, there are no shortage of pitchers to consider. Here are the pitchers going Thursday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.

Kip Wells (1%) – Has a home start against Carpenter and St. Louis. After being designated for assignment earlier this year by the Nationals, Wells hooked up with the Reds. He pitched three games out of the bullpen and then moved into the rotation for his last six outings. Wells is 2-1 with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.178 WHIP in that span. He’s appeared in four games this year in Great American Ball Park, where he is 1-0 with a 3.80 ERA. Wells has made two relief appearances versus the Cardinals and has allowed 1 ER in 3.2 IP.

Nate Robertson (4%) – Has a home start against Baker and the Twins. After spending most of the season in the bullpen, Robertson has made three straight starts for the Tigers. He is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA in that span, with 11 BB and 8 Ks in 12 IP. Robertson has a 3.70 home ERA this season and has 6 IP and 2 ER against the Twins with one win this year.

Manny Parra (28%) – Has a road start in Colorado versus Cook. After starting the season 3-8, Parra is 8-2 with a 4.95 ERA in his last 13 starts. This year he is 6-7 with a 6.87 ERA in road starts. Parra has yet to pitch this season in Coors Field.

Garrett Mock (5%) – Has a road start in Atlanta versus Hanson. Mock has dropped his last five decisions and has a 7.03 ERA and has a 1.656 WHIP in his last six games. He gave up 4 ER in 5 IP 9/26 versus the Braves and is 0-2 with a 6.31 ERA versus them this season. Overall, Mock is 2-3 with a 4.87 ERA in road games this season.

Felipe Paulino (3%) – Has a road start in Philadelphia versus Lee. Paulino has lost seven consecutive decisions and has a 7.71 ERA in his last 10 games. He is 1-6 with an 8.37 ERA in road games this year and has yet to face the Phillies this season.

Chris Waters (0%) – Has a road start in Tampa versus Garza. Waters was 9-7 in Triple-A this season before getting the call to Baltimore. He has made four relief appearances for the Orioles and this will be the 28-year old’s first start of the season after making 11 in 2008. The lefty is a fastball/slider pitcher.

Carlos Carrasco (11%) – Has a road start in Boston versus Lester. Carrasco was part of the package received from Philadelphia in the Lee trade. He was 5-1 in Triple-A for Columbus after the deal with a 3.19 ERA. Carrasco has made four starts for Cleveland and has given up four or more earned runs in each of them. On the plus side, Carrasco has a 2.19 GB/FB mark. However, when batters get the ball in the air, they hit it out of the park 37.5 percent of the time.

Paul Maholm (43%) – Has a road start in Chicago versus Samardzija. In his last seven starts, Maholm is 2-2 with a 2.89 ERA and he has allowed just 2 HR in 46.2 IP. Maholm is 4-6 with a 5.54 ERA in road games this season. In his only game against the Cubs, he allowed 7 ER in 4 IP but came away with a no-decision.

Jeff Samardzija (6%) – Has a home start against Maholm and the Pirates. A candidate for the rotation in Spring Training, Samardzija made his second start of the season in his last outing, in which he gave up 3 ER (on 2 HR) in 5 IP and took the loss. The gopher ball has been a problem for Samardzija this season but it has been more pronounced on the road. He has allowed 2 HR in 15.2 IP at Wrigley but 5 HR in 19 IP on the road.

Doug Fister (10%) – Has a home start against Anderson and the A’s. After a strong showing at the start of his major league career, Fister is 0-3 with an 8.80 ERA in his last three starts. He is 2-2 with a 4.31 ERA in home starts this season. Fister has faced Oakland once this season and allowed 1 ER in 5 IP and got a no-decision.

It is never too late to improve your team! Here are five players available on the waiver wire under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your squad for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Miguel Olivo (30%) – With catchers, after you pass the first few tiers basically you want someone to help you in one category or another, most often HR or AVG. Olivo falls into the former, as he has 23 HR for the season. That makes him worth picking up right there. Add in the fact that he has also swiped a couple of bags in September and that makes him a worthwhile add down the stretch.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Bud Norris (26%) – After experiencing early success in his rookie season, Norris allowed 22 runs in 16.2 innings over four starts and saw his stock drop dramatically. But in his last three outings, Norris is 2-0 with 2.12 ERA with 21 Ks in 17 IP. A fastball/slider pitcher, Norris hit 98.4 in his last start and for the year has a 94.1 average fastball.

Under 20 Percent Owned

David Murphy (17%) – In his last 18 games, Murphy is batting .333/.395/.565 with 4 HR, 10 RBIs and 17 R. He is entrenched as an everyday player, an issue earlier in the season, and is the Rangers’ primary LF now, while also getting starts in RF and DH.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Ross Detwiler (2 %) – At first glance, an 0-6 record with a 5.80 makes one wonder why anyone saves a roster spot for Detwiler. But he has a 3.80 FIP and LH starters who can hit 94 do not grow on trees. In his last outing, Detwiler allowed 1 ER in 5 IP and posted 6 Ks. He is a high risk-high reward pitcher down the stretch.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Paul Maholm (43%) – The average ERA in the National League for starting pitchers this year is 4.20 and the average WHIP is 1.378. Maholm checks in with 4.46 and 1.44 marks, respectively, making him slightly below average and worth a spot in most fantasy leagues. He has notched a Quality Start in four of his last six outings. He has neither the upside nor downside of Detwiler and is more likely to deliver a useful fantasy outing in his remaining starts.

Guys,
Haven’t seen a mailbag since the 14th and wanted to get your thoughts on this.

Thanks, Big Oil

Thanks for the question, and since readership has been high for these, we will continue to do them.

My initial response is that I don’t like the deal. If you only keep four, you always want to consolidate your keeper talent. That much is probably not news to you, but Grady Sizemore blend of speed and power is matched by only a handful of players. Owning him puts you ahead of the game because you don’t need to pick a speed-only guy high in the draft – if at all.

Upon a closer review, I can see the enticement. Your current third basemen are not up to snuff in a mixed league, and though you are competing now, you may fall behind without Aramis Ramirez and his considerable production at the hot corner. I don’t fault you for looking for a better option at third base, not at all.

However, I still go with ‘no,’ even after more reflection. I don’t want you to keep a second 1B (Adrian Gonzalez is good, but first base is a deep position), and Jay Bruce and Justin Upton are exciting players that probably won’t steal like Sizemore. Upton is close, as he is on pace for over 15 stolen bases this year and has always shown good speed in the minors.

But speed is not his game like Sizemore’s. Consider that Sizemore stole 96 bases in the minors (in 529 games) while Upton totaled 36 in 231 games. Er, that was a suprising statistic. Guess it makes sense that Upton’s four-component speed score of 6.7 this year would better Sizemore’s since 2006.

Hmmm. On second thought, fly that flag. Go for the win and do the trade. Upton looks like a good consolation prize right now, and at 21 is coming into his own. You can deal your surplus 3B at the end of the year if you want to consolidate keepers.

In a 12 team mixed league, I have a staff of Sabathia, Chamberlain, Greinke, Kershaw, Porcello, Maholm, and Sonnanstine. I am going with 2 closers and am using Joba’s RP status to plug in an extra starter. I also had Kawakami on my bench, but dumped him and someone else scooped him up. I am growing impatient with Sonny and am wondering if I should cut bait and pick up someone else. I am near the top of ERA, WHIP, Wins, but could use more Ks and could go back to 3 true RPs. Any thoughts?

Thanks! K.G.

Andy Sonnanstine shouldn’t be owned in most formats. Seriously, I took a longer look at his stats than I deemed necessary, and I still didn’t see anything I liked.

His mediocre stuff just holds him back. While he’s still not walking too many to be productive (2.92 per nine), he’s still not striking out enough to really matter (5.29 K/9). How is he going to strike people out with an 87 MPH fastball, an 87 MPH cutter, a 77 MPH slider, and a 74 MPH curveball? That’s just too many pitches at the same speed with similar movement.

Look at this chart for his vertical movement. You can see why he’s suddenly using his cutter more, because it’s the only one that moves differently on the vertical plane. Consider that his cutter used to move less, and the possibility of a regression to an already-unattractive mean is not a happy thought.

Sonnanstine is a decent number four or five in real life baseball, just on the basis of his stinginess with the walks. That shouldn’t be too attractive in fantasy baseball. Go find a reliever that might get you some saves. (Oh and trade Paul Maholm high, because he’s got too much in common with Sonnanstine to get comfortable with him.)

Our email address for this feature is rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com, so send in your questions! Remember to try to give us all relevant information in the fewest words possible, and you’ll be all set.

A fair number of stars, like Tim Lincecum and Johan Santana, are slated for two starts in Week 5. But since you are going to start those guys anyway, let’s take a look at some other pitchers you may be on the fence about who are projected for two starts in those leagues with weeks starting on Monday.

Josh Beckett – Ordinarily he would be a no-brainer pick for your lineup, even if he had just one start in a week. But Beckett’s been unimpressive since his Opening Day outing. Since then he’s pitched 17.2 innings and allowed 22 earned runs. It is always a risk to take a horse like Beckett out of the lineup, but two starts of lousy pitching this week is something of which to be wary. His two games are at New York and versus Tampa Bay.

Chris Volstad – He has a 2.67 ERA overall and in his last start allowed just two runs in seven innings while he struck out five batters. Bench him anyway. Volstad has a tough matchup with Edinson Volquez in his first start and then he has to go to Colorado for his second outing, always a tricky place for pitchers and not one that a hurler who has allowed five home runs in 30.1 innings should particularly relish.

Mark Buehrle – The veteran has been extremely effective so far this season, as he has allowed two, one, three and two earned runs in his four outings. Buehrle also is doing a better than usual job of striking out batters, as he has notched 17 Ks in 24 IP. His first start is at Kansas City and then he returns to Chicago for a matchup with Texas.

Paul Maholm – I am going with my gut on this one. His first start is against the Brewers, who roughed up Maholm in his last outing. I like pitchers who get a quick shot at revenge against a team that just beat them. Plus, Pittsburgh has to beat Milwaukee one of these days, right? The losing streak is up to 15 games now. In his second start, Maholm goes up against Livan Hernandez and the Mets at Citi Field.

Felipe Paulino – A pinched nerve in his shoulder kept Paulino out for virtually the entire 2008 season. He opened this year in the minors but was promoted when Brian Moehler hit the DL in mid-April. Since then the 25-year old with the 95 mph fastball has been solid, despite his 0-2 record. He has a 3.25 K/BB ratio and has yet to allow a HR. Unfortunately, his teammates have provided him with only four runs in three games. His first start is at Washington and then he returns home to face off against San Diego.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 5 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Santana, Greinke, Gallardo, Hernandez, Kazmir Burnett, Johnson, Lester, Wainwright, Vazquez, Bedard, Harang, Dempster, Volquez, Hamels, Chamberlain, Myers, Garza, Millwood, Floyd, Liriano, Jackson, Scherzer, Carmona, Sanchez, Davies, Uehara, Marshall, Davis, Snell, Cook, Reyes, Blackburn, Porcello, Braden, Kawakami, Stults, Tallet, Anderson, Padilla, Boggs, Olsen, McDonald, Hernandez, De la Rosa, Cabrera, Correia, Ortiz, Geer, Loux, Eaton, Ortega and Burress.

The Pittsburgh Pirates, to be kind, have not received a desirable return on investment from early-round draft picks in recent years. Despite consistently selecting high in June, the Bucs have repeatedly shot themselves in the foot, particularly in 2002 (Bryan Bullington over B.J. Upton with the 1st overall pick) and 2007 (A-Ball bust Daniel Moskos over prospect demigod Matt Wieters).

The Dave Littlefield-run front office that authored those blunders has thankfully been purged. New GM Neal Huntington has made strides to improve the club’s young talent base over the past year by adding players such as Pedro Alvarez, Quinton Miller and Robbie Grossman in the draft, as well as acquiring youngsters such as Andy LaRoche, Bryan Morris and Jose Tabata in trades (for more on Pittsburgh’s base of young talent, see Marc Hulet’s post here).

While Littlefield’s draft decisions will live in infamy, his 2003 selection of left-hander Paul Maholm has paid dividends for the organization. The 8th overall pick out of Mississippi State that year, Maholm was not viewed as a quintessential fire-breathing starter, but his polished four-pitch mix (sinker, curve, slider, change) figured to expedite his ascent to Pittsburgh.

The former Bulldog did indeed move quickly, as he rose from the New York Penn League in ’03 all the way to the majors by the summer of 2005. His peripherals along the way fell in line with his solid, not spectacular scouting reports, as he struck out 7.23 batters per nine innings while issuing 3.15 BB/9 and burning plenty of worms (59.5 GB%). In his first big league action in the summer of ’05, Maholm posted a 2.18 ERA in 41.1 innings pitched. That figure, derived from a small amount of work, obviously involved some good fortune (his FIP was 3.84).

Since that point, the 26 year-old has shown steady, gradual improvement:

2006: 5.98 K/9, 4.14 BB/9, 1.44 K/BB, 4.81 FIP
2007: 5.32 K/9, 2.48 BB/9, 2.14 K/BB, 4.60 FIP
2008: 6.06 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 2.21 K/BB, 4.15 FIP

For three years running, Maholm has improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio and his FIP, while keeping his infielders busy with a GB% hovering around 53 percent. The 6-2, 220 pounder also has a three-year upward trend in Outside Swing%: 19.5% in ’06, 20.1% in ’07 and 25.7% in ’08. To boot, Maholm posted the best Contact% of his career this past season (81.5%, down from 85.2% the previous year) and continued to pound the strike zone with a 62 percent First-Pitch Strike% that ranked in the top 25 among all starters.

Pittsburgh’s nominal ace (recently inked to a three-year, arbitration-ending deal with an option year) might not possess the sort of stuff that allows one to dream of future stardom, but Paul Maholm’s average K rate, coupled with pretty solid control and groundball tendencies, make him a good bet to keep his FIP in the low four’s going forward. That might not get you all excited, but Maholm’s brand of above-average, high-probability pitching would be a fine way of rounding out a good fantasy rotation.