Archive for Orioles

Some good pitchers, despite being good pitchers, throw bad pitches. And there are bad pitchers, too, who throw good pitches. Both are true, and one could make an argument a Venn Diagram of the two groups may overlap significantly, and that overlapping area is the group of pitchers toeing the line between breaking out and being unusable for fantasy purposes.

It stands to reason, then, that good and bad pitchers could benefit from easing off or completely abandoning their bad pitches. It’s one thing to evaluate a pitch based on its underlying metrics — its swinging strike rate (SwStr%), its ground ball rate (GB%), its velocity, and so on. It’s another thing to evaluate the pitch objectively by looking at its weighted on-base average (wOBA) allowed, which, I hope, in an adequately large sample, can indicate a pitch’s quality regardless of its peripherals. In theory, the larger the sample size, the greater the probability a pitch’s outcomes will converge with its inputs, such that the caveat “regardless of its peripherals” doesn’t actually mean anything. Given enough pitches thrown, the aforementioned underlying metrics will adequately inform the wOBA allowed.

Using PITCHf/x data from the last two years, I looked for (1) good pitchers who throws pitches that allow (2a) extremely bad wOBAs with (2b) unusually low BABIPs. Incurring high wOBAs on low BABIPs is less than ideal; if BABIP is subject to high variance and generally converges on the league average, then a bad pitch being “lucky” by BABIP suggests things will only get worse.

This post was going to be about several pitchers, each with their own problematic pitches, but I became too passionate about this single case. This is about Dylan Bundy, his abhorrently bad four-seamer, his fantastic slider, and how much his pitch selection is suffocating his potential. Ultimately, it’s about adding by subtracting.

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While many pondered the potential outcomes when deciding on taking Ken Giles in preseason drafts and auctions, Brad Peacock emerged as a popular target in the later rounds. In spite of his transition to the bullpen to start the year, Peacock’s 13 wins, 29.5 strikeout percentage and 161 strikeouts over 132 innings in 2017 made him an interesting pitcher to pair with Charlie Morton or an upside arm to deploy as a reliever with starting pitcher eligibility in leagues which use designations. After two strong innings on Wednesday, the Astros opted to leave Peacock in for three innings and the win rather than adhere to standard procedure by using their closer, Ken Giles to secure the last three outs against the Orioles.

There’s not reason for panic by Giles owners, yet at least, since leaving Peacock, while in a rhythm, translated into him retiring nine of the 11 hitters he faced. Peacock whiffed five of them, allowed two hits and issued zero walks. All told, Peacock threw 39 pitches in three innings generating 12 swinging strikes (30.8 swinging strike percentage in the appearance) and notching his, and Houston’s first save of the season. A.J. Hinch proved last postseason he would not be averse to using pitchers in roles outside the popular think box to close out games with Lance McCullers Jr. taking over high leverage last October. It’s a marathon of a season and Giles owners have reason to be upset, but it’s not time to panic, yet. Houston’s powerful offense could also cut into potential save chances as the year progresses, so Giles owners need to plan accordingly. Read the rest of this entry »

If there was any uncertainty around Brad Brach taking over the closer duties for the Orioles while Zach Britton is out due to a PRP injection, we didn’t have to live with that uncertainty for very long. Brach’s first save chance in his third iteration as the Orioles’ primary closer came on Thursday night against the Rays. It had some drama, as he issued a two-out walk to Steven Souza Jr., which was followed by a J.J. Hardy error that put runners on the corners with a 3-1 lead. Brach worked out of the jam by getting Kevin Kiermaier to fly out, collecting his 18th save of the season and his first save since Aug. 27.

Mike Minor needed only six pitches to close out a 1-0 win over the Blue Jays on Thursday night, earning his second save in a week. The Royals’ closer situation is still ambiguous, though. The Kansas City Star reported that Scott Alexander has been dealing with fatigue, and may not be available for Friday’s series opener at the White Sox. Even if Minor were to get another save on Friday, that would not necessarily mean he has the closer’s job all to himself.
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Even with less than two weeks left in the season, it’s not too late for some closer turnover. Zach Britton is scheduled to get a stem cell injection in his left knee Thursday, and that will likely shelve him for the rest of the season. That probably means that Brad Brach will once again take over as the Orioles’ closer for the final nine games. The earned run that Brach allowed against the Red Sox on Tuesday was the first he had yielded in September, so he has rebounded from a difficult August. His control has been inconsistent, and that has contributed to a total of five walks in 10.1 innings this month (two of which came on Tuesday). A 64.3 percent ground ball rate has helped Brach to minimize the damage.

If you are thinking of adding a closer (or replacing Britton) for the home stretch, Brach should be sufficiently reliable. Then again, if you are in a 12-team mixed league, he is not necessarily the best option. Hector Neris, who converted his 17th straight save on Wednesday against the Dodgers, has not only been steady, but is a better option for strikeouts. As Ben Kaspick mentioned in the previous installment of the Bullpen Report, Alex Claudio was passed over for a save opportunity on Sunday, but he was back in his customary role on Tuesday, Claudio set the Mariners down in order, notching his ninth save of the season, and then he came back for a scoreless two-inning save on Wednesday.
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The Cardinals’ closer situation took an interesting turn on Sunday when Mike Matheny brought Brett Cecil in to close out a 3-2 game against the Pirates. While Cecil getting a save chance added a new wrinkle to the Cardinals’ committee arrangement, it was a sensible move. Cecil would have to face Francisco Cervelli, Gregory Polanco and Jordy Mercer, and while Polanco was the only left-handed batter in that group, Cecil had been far more effective against righties this season. He was also on a roll, having built a string of 15 straight scoreless appearances covering 15 2/3 innings. Over that span, Cecil allowed just five singles, two doubles and a walk. It also made sense that Matheny called upon Trevor Rosenthal to take care of the top of the Pirates’ order in the eighth inning.

Cecil picked a bad time to take a break from shutting down opponents, as he gave up a lead-off single to Cervelli, a game-tying double to Mercer and a walk-off single to Adam Frazier.
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We may have just taken a four-day break from games that count, but closer drama did not take a vacation. The trade market heated up over the All-Star break, and while no closers were dealt, there were plenty of reports and rumors regarding closer trades.

None was more attention-grabbing than Jon Heyman’s report for FanRag Sports that the Dodgers called the Orioles to check on Zach Britton‘s availability. While Heyman noted that the Orioles have not yet made Britton available, the possibility that he could head out of Baltimore to be Kenley Jansen’s set-up man is exciting from a fan’s perspective, but it’s a fantasy nightmare.
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Jeurys Familia had been one of the most valuable and reliable closers over the last two seasons. Now, less than two weeks after returning to the closer’s role for the Mets following his 15-game domestic violence suspension and a brief “easing in” period, one has to wonder how secure his job is.

Familia blew his first save of the season Wednesday in a 6-5 loss to the Giants, but signs of trouble had been brewing for awhile. Upon his return to the Mets, Familia struggled with control, and while he has improved in that regard lately, he hasn’t been fooling many hitters. He has thrown 61 pitches in the month of May, and has coaxed exactly one swinging strike. That was back on May 1. Read the rest of this entry »

There are a sundry of middle/set-up relievers that can succeed in the closer role if given the opportunity. A few obvious: Wade Davis if something happens to Greg Holland… Wil Myers for James Shields and who?!; Ken Giles if the Phillies can somehow find a trade partner for the grundle-grabber; and Brad Boxberger if not Jake McGee. I assume David Robertson signs elsewhere and Dellin Betances steps in.

Lets’ look at potential closers using reliever outcomes. Here are the average contact and balls in play-related outcomes for all relievers that qualified and specifically relievers with 10+ saves:

Our Filters: 

• Contact-related outcomes: For K-BB%, Ct% and SwStr%, I filtered simply by the general relief pitcher averages. Everyone below average in these 3 categories was filtered out.
• Command-related outcomes: For zone% and first-pitch-strike%, I used 1 standard deviation below average and 1.25 SD’s below average in BABIP as filters. 1.25 SD allowed me to omit only the relievers that had career BABIP’s higher than we would like to see for a closer or in general. I didn’t want to screen out Jenrry Mejia (1.24 SD below the mean) or Tim Stauffer (1.19 SD below), because there’s a possibility for BABIP regression.
• Balls In Play-related outcomes: I was lax on the balls in play outcomes. I went with a 40% Grounder rate and 45% Flyball rate as my filters versus the averages that you see above because below average fly-rates don’t mean much in places like Tampa (where Boxberger is elite but below average in fly-rates); and above average grounder-rates don’t mean as much with atrocious defense behind you (hence Corey Kluber’s unlucky BABIP, which should have been closer to .299 per end-of-season xBABIP/Inside Edge data), but I digress.

Using these filters, we’re left with a robust list of above-average relievers beyond just closers (scroll down for the noted filters):

What happens if we use the command (K-BB%)/contact (Ct% and SwStr%) related averages for relievers with more than 10 saves this year? 

…We’re left with some elite closers and then a few interesting names.

Last year, Danny Farquhar (just missed the list this year) had a top 20 swinging-strike rate – about a percent better than Fernando Rodney, but it was masked by his BABIP and left-on-base rate that killed his surface stats (4.20 ERA vs. 2.40 xFIP). This year, he actually outperformed his xFIP with a 2.66 ERA. After an early season MASH Report on Rodney’s velocity, I eyed Farquhar. At least keep him in mind next year if anything does happen to Rodney.

Josh Edgin (Mets for those of you that don’t know) has a top 65 contact-rate sandwiched between Mark Melancon and Jake McGee and even induced grounders 50% of the time. He has a pretty extensive repertoire as well. In order of usage: Fourseamer, Slider, Curve, Change, Cutter and Sinker. According to his Brooks Player Card, he has great swing and miss rates on his Curve (>56%), Cutter (50%), Slider (>42%) and Sinker (33%). Even his Change approaches 30%. This isn’t the case on his Fastball, but at 93+ MPH, it induces a decent amount of grounders (1.8 GB/FB). Keep in mind he had late-season elbow issues which effected his velocity by a MPH or so, but he could be called upon to get Mejia out of a jam. I like him better than an unhealthy Bobby Parnell and Jeurys Familia from a command perspective for another year.

Zach Duke did his best Craig Kimbrel impression prior to the R2M monster hitting him in August. Prior to 8/1, Duke had a 34.9% K-rate and 27.3 K-BB%. Kimbrel ended the year with a 38.9% K-rate and 28.3 K-BB%. I think August and September brought him back to his realistic value (~2.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). It will be interesting to see who closes for the Brewers if they let Francisco Rodriguez go. Both Duke and Will Smith have above average (even for RP w/ 10+ saves) swing-and-miss. Will Smith should have additional command next year, but Zack Duke induces grounders better which I like in my closers/in Milwaukee. They also have Jonathan Broxton. The hierarchy seemed to be K-rod-Broxton-Smith late last season. If that’s the case, they should use Duke more (former starter) and in higher leverage situations. He was equally solid against both lefties (.258 wOBA) and righties (.262 wOBA).

Oliver Perez everybody! I thought I could filter him out by his splits being a lefty, but like 2012, he was more effective vs. righties (and faced 44 more of them). The D-backs have Addison Reed, up-and-comer Evan Marshall as well as Daniel Hudson caught touching 97 MPH so if not by outcomes or splits, we can filter Perez out by opportunity.

Darren O’Day and Andrew Miller is part of one dominating Baltimore bullpen – one that gets referenced by anyone who thinks the Orioles can beat the Tigers in the ALDS. Notice that Zach Britton didn’t make either of the above lists! He was filtered out by his below average K-BB% (13.70%). It’s his 75+% grounder rate (hence the 81+% left-on-base rate and .215 BABIP) that keeps him elite in Baltimore. The only concern you can have with O’Day is a fastball velocity almost 2 standard deviations below the mean for relievers, but his arm angle combined with that slider still induces a 30+% whiff-rate on both pitches. Miller’s slider though is a world apart from O’Day’s: only Pedro Strop, Will Smith, Jake Diekman, Greg Holland and Oliver Perez induces more whiffs than Miller’s 55% according to Baseball Prospectus’ Pitchf/x Leaderboards.  I doubt we’ll see a closer-transition next year in Baltimore unless Britton’s GB/FB ratio takes a drastic dive because his HR/FB ratio, which approached 18%, could be an issue.

An xBABIP review

On the last day of the season, @jeffwzimmerman provided me with Pitch xBABIP based on inside edge data. Let’s look at some of the bigger xBABIP differentials to keep in mind:

The last column depicts the z-score for BABIP differential. Francisco Rodriguez was expected to have a BABIP about 120 points above his actual BABIP. I highlighted (red/bad; green/good) the xBABIP z-scores as well so that you know whether or not to actually be concerned meaning sure Aaron Sanchez has the 5th biggest BABIP differential (over 2 standard deviations from the mean), but a .239 xBABIP is still utterly elite (3.34 SD’s from the mean). On the other side of the equation, it’s nice to see Evan Marshall, Carlos Martinez and Adam Ottavino (albeit in Colorado) with large BABIP differentials. Marshall and Martinez even have xBABIP’s over .5SD from the mean.

The last bit of fun

It was a very fun year to be doing bullpen reports for RotoGraphs. Aroldis Chapman broke the single-season strikeout rate of 2012 Craig Kimbrel (50.2%). He struck out 52.5% of the hitters he faced. Andrew Miller (42.6%) and Brad Boxberger (42.1%) also made the top 10 seasons ever. Dellin Betances (39.6%), Wade Davis (39.1%) and Craig Kimbrel (38.9%) made the top 20. Chapman’s swinging-strike% of 20% beat ’12 Kimbrel by .8%, but he couldn’t pass ’04 Lidge, ’03 Gagne, ’04 Gagne, ’02 Gagne or ’05 Lidge. Chapman, Miller, Doolittle, Boxberger, Betances (Wade Davis and Kenley Jansen close behind) all had historical, top 20 K-BB rates. Relievers dominate this list: only ’99 Pedro Martinez (#12), ’00 Pedro Martinez (#21), ’01 Randy Johnson (#27) and ’01 Pedro Martinez (#28) make it into the top 30, but it’s clear that we have a growing list of elite relievers.

From a fantasy perspective, thanks to 45+ saves totals out of Holland and Kimbrel, we had two relievers ranked in the top 20 pitchers. If Chapman didn’t miss time and Betances and Davis consumed the closer role, we would have had 3 others. Last year, Craig Kimbrel and his 4 wins, 50 saves, 98 SO’s, 1.21 ERA and .88 WHIP campaign made him the 3rd most valuable pitcher. This year with Kershaw, Cueto, Felix and Kluber, it would have taken even more.

If we combined the 3 more dominating performances exclusive of saves this year: Aroldis Chapman’s K-rate (52.5%) and saves total (36), Dellin Betances IP (90) – who was dominating in his own right, Wade Davis’ ERA (1.00) and Wins total (9) and Sean Doolittle’s WHIP (.73) – let’s call this guy Aroldellin Dooldavis, we would wind up with a 10.95 z-sum…just above Corey Kluber (10.72), but under Clayton Kershaw (13.74), Johnny Cueto (12.95) and Felix Hernandez (12.50). Even 50 saves wouldn’t have done the trick (12.43 z-sum):

Episode 93

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris to preview the Baltimore Orioles and the San Diego Padres

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music

Approximately 61 min of joyous analysis.

ADP results from NFBC

The 2012 Catcher keeper rankings continue here with the third tier which is filled with a little bit of hope and a whole lot of promise.  How much of that promise we see…well, that’s going to be the question.  In case you missed the first two tiers, here are links to Tier 1 and Tier 2 so you can see exactly where these guys here in Tier 3 rank in the grand scheme of things.

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