Archive for nolan reimold

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Baltimore Orioles organization that finished fifth in the American League East division with a record of 64-98. As a team, the Orioles posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of -10.70, which was 29th in the Major Leagues and second worst in the American League behind Kansas City (aka The Rays of ’09).

The Good: The Outfield
Depth is never, ever a bad thing. The Baltimore Orioles club had an exciting young outfield in ’09 with Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Nolan Reimold. The old man of the group, Luke Scott, was banished to DH duties for much of the season. Former top Cubs prospect Felix Pie even made some strides as a hitter, after a few disappointing seasons. Markakis is the stud of the group and he led the team with 101 RBI. Jones was on fire in April and May before fizzling at mid-season. At just 24 years of age, though, no one is overly worried, although his decreased range in the outfield is a bit of a concern. Reimold was a suprise American League Rookie of the Year candidate for much of the season before wearing down in August. His .187 ISO rate hints at impressive power potential. Like Jones, Reimold’s outfield defense was also a disappointment in ’09. Pie posted a .171 ISO rate while also playing at least average defense at all three outfield spots. Scott led the club with 25 home runs

Markakis continues to be a key fantasy outfield player, and Jones could join him in that category in ’10. Reimold’s season ended prematurely due to a torn achille’s tendon, but he’s expected to be healthy for spring training. He should be good for a .260-.280 average and 20-25 homers. Pie is definitely a sleeper to keep an eye on, but his value will also hinge on playing time. Scott can provide a boost in the home run and RBI categories for many fantasy teams and he did appear in 25 games in the outfield in ’09, so he should be eligible as an outfielder in most scenarios.

*If you’re drafting Baltimore pitchers – especially fly-ball hurlers like Chris Tillman – remember that all three starting outfielders (Markakis, Jones, and Reimold) showed below-average range in the field.

The Bad: Melvin Mora, 3B
At 37 years old, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Mora is on the downside of his career. His .260/.321/.358 line in 450 at-bats was a huge disappointment, as he was one of the worst offensive third basemen in the league in ’09. Mora posted an ISO rate of just .098 with providing just eight homers. He made above-average contact this past year (85.2%) but he just wasn’t able to get any power in his swing. His wOBA of .302 had him slumming it with the likes of fellow third basemen Emilio Bonifacio and Garrett Atkins. Defensively, Mora’s range has diminished, but he’s still a steady fielder when he gets to the ball.

Mora was worth just shy of a win in ’09, meaning he’ll enter the free agent market worth about $4 million, significantly less than the $9 million he received from the Orioles in the last year of his contract. He may very well end up having to take a minor-league contract if he wants to play in 2010. As well, his days of starting are probably over. Mora should not be drafted in any fantasy format in the upcoming season.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Jermaine Dye and trade Johnny Cueto last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

John Maine – Current owners may look at his .252 BABIP and 4.41 FIP and see a sell candidate. But Maine was terrible the first three games of the season and has quietly been a very effective pitcher since then. In his last seven games, Maine is 5-1 with a 2.36 ERA. Linear Weights shows his fastball, which was such a good pitch in both 2006 and 2007, has rebounded into positive numbers despite a slight decrease in velocity.

Jorge Cantu – After a hot start to the season, Cantu really struggled in May and now his updated ZiPS shows him falling fall short of last year’s HR and R totals. A hand injury that he refused to come out of the lineup for hurt his numbers, especially early in the month. But Cantu has hit a solid .286 over his last 14 games and he could be a great pickup if his power numbers rebound as the hand improves.

Jhonny Peralta – Here is another player whose numbers have been dragged down due to injury. After a strong first two weeks of the season, Peralta injured his left elbow. The injury sapped his power and helped his average fall below .200 in early May. But in his last 21 games, Peralta is batting .347, albeit still with no power. The most attractive thing about Peralta as a fantasy player is his 20-HR power. RoS ZiPS sees Peralta hitting 11 HR the rest of the season.

Gavin Floyd – A 17-game winner a year ago, Floyd was overvalued by many coming into the season. But it seems that he has reached the point now where he is an undervalued commodity. Floyd’s strikeout rate is up over 1.5 per nine from a year ago and his FIP is actually lower now than it was in 2008 (4.14 opposed to 4.77). But he is being hurt by baserunners, as his BB rate is up and his BABIP sits at .335 compared to a .296 lifetime mark. But in his last three outings, Floyd has allowed just seven walks in 23 IP. Improved control along with a little better luck on balls in play could add up to a big improvement in Floyd’s numbers.

Nolan Reimold – The Baltimore rookie has provided some nice power, with five home runs in his first 17 games. While that pace may not be sustainable, the power is not a huge surprise, as Reimold hit 25 HR last year in Double-A. Reimold has made good contact since returning from a strained oblique in 2007. He will not hurt you in average and could be a cheap source of power as he is owned in only 5.1 percent of ESPN leagues.

Trade

Nate McLouth – An All-Star in 2008, McLouth came into the season with an ADP of 59 as owners anticipated another 25-25 season and hoped for 30-30. So far, McLouth has been hitting for power but he has been disappointing in the other categories. He looks like a nice acquisition target, as his BABIP is a dismal .254 so far. But his updated ZiPS shows him hitting just .256 with 22 HR and 20 SB. McLouth’s first half of 2008, when he had 19 HR and a .542 SLG, is looking like a career outlier. His SLG was .459 in 2007, .426 in the second half of 2008 and is .451 this season.

Kevin Millwood – He is in the top 10 in the American League with a 3.23 ERA but that comes along with a 5.05 FIP. His .256 BABIP is 50 points below his career average and his 83.9 percent strand rate is unlikely to last. Adding to the worries is his K/9, which sits at 4.96, down from 6.67 last year and his career average of 7.09.

Raul Ibanez – An extremely reliable fantasy performer the past seven seasons, Ibanez is off to a fantastic start. CBS Sports lists him as the fifth-best fantasy player so far while RotoTimes has him at number four. If you can sell high, now would be the time. Ibanez is just not this good and he has absolutely feasted on the pitching of the last-place Nationals. Due to a quirk of the schedule, Ibanez and the Phillies have played 12 games versus Washington and no more than six against anyone else. In those 12 games versus the Nationals and their MLB-worst 6.16 R/G staff, Ibanez is hitting .440 with 6 HR, 18 RBI and 15 R. His play against Washington has raised his AVG alone 23 points. Ibanez won’t see that pitching staff again until September 8th.

Doug Davis – He has only posted two wins but has been a strong contributor in the other three SP categories. But a 4.78 FIP suggests Davis has been more than a little lucky with his 3.65 ERA. After posting a 2.91 ERA and a 1.176 WHIP in April, Davis had a 4.37 ERA and a 1.371 WHIP in May.

Mark DeRosa – The Indians are allegedly shopping DeRosa and so should you. Since he qualifies at three positions, DeRosa can still be a useful fantasy player and should have trade value. The updated ZiPS shows him with numbers that come close to his 2008 ones, but that seems overly optimistic. DeRosa did so much of his damage during his career year last year at Wrigley Field, where he batted .316/.404/.514. His road numbers last year of .254/.347/.448 look remarkably like what he has posted so far in 2009.

Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria is a special talent, so it’s not really fair to compare other players to him. With that said, though, the 2008 American League Rookie of the Year’s performance last season has left a lasting impression that no rookie has been able to come close to in 2009. One-third of the way through the 2009 season, there are no clear-cut favorites for the Rookie of the Year award in either the American League or the National League.

In fact, two of the early favorites for the award, both outfielders, have already been demoted to the minors in Toronto’s Travis Snider, and Florida’s Cameron Maybin. The pre-season AL favorites, LHP David Price (Tampa Bay) and C Matt Wieters (Baltimore), have not been recalled from the minors yet. Time will be running out soon for those two players, as it gets harder and harder to justify giving the award to someone if they only play a partial season in the Majors.

The Favorite(s): Elvis Andrus has been one of the key reasons for the Rangers’ first-place play so far this season. The 20-year-old shortstop has displayed solid defense while also contributing a respectable offensive line of .270/.311/.417 in 35 games. If he showed a willingness to walk a little more and use his speed on the bases, Andrus could run away with the award. Japanese import Koji Uehara has been the Orioles’ best starter so far in 2009. He’s given up a few too many hits, but the right-hander has walked just nine batters in 47.2 innings of work. Uehara is already 34 years of age, though, so there likely isn’t any upside here. Another right-handed rookie in the American League has a ton of upside. Detroit’s Rick Porcello is just 20 years of age and he is one of the rare rookies this season that has shown vast improvements as the year progresses. His strikeout rate is still a little troubling at just 5.67 K/9 but he’s struck out five batters in each of his last two starts (10 Ks in 11 IP). Porcello is also inducing a ton of ground-ball outs.

The New Contestants: Baltimore recently promoted outfielder Nolan Reimold to the Majors after he hit .394/.485/.743 in 31 games. He’s had at least one hit in six of his seven MLB games so far, and he has two multiple-hit contests. Cleveland outfielder Matt LaPorta has a slightly higher ceiling than Reimold, but he’s had a slower start to his MLB career. Through 11 games, he’s hitting just .206 with one home run. Left-handed pitcher Derek Holland has been pitching well in the Rangers’ bullpen, which has earned him his first first MLB start this weekend. He has a 4.85 ERA in seven appearances, but five of the seven earned runs he’s allowed came in one outing.

The Long-Shot: Matt Palmer, a 30-year-old rookie, will not wow you with his stuff. The right-hander works in the high 80s with his fastball and relies on pitching to contact with a cutter. He has, though, allowed just 23 hits in 31.2 innings of work and he’s recorded wins in each of his five starts. Not bad for a minor league free agent pick-up out of the Giants organization.

The Favorite(s): St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Colby Rasmus is currently the NL RoY favorite almost by default, as no other player has stepped up in pursuit of the award. Rasmus is playing good defense and showing some power (.155 ISO), but he’s hitting just .250 with a .328 on-base percentage. The left-handed hitter is batting just .129 versus southpaws.

The New Contestants: Arizona recently promoted outfielder Gerardo Parra from double-A, where he was hitting very well (.361 avg, more BBs than Ks). He’s now hitting .333 with two homers in seven big-league games. Second baseman Chris Coghlan has been playing all over the field for Florida and has seen a fair bit of time in the outfield now that Maybin has been demoted. He’s likely the second baseman of the future, though, when Dan Uggla gets too expensive. Infielder Adam Rosales is another player who can play all over the field. He was promoted to fill-in at third base after incumbent Edwin Encarnacion went down with an injury in Cincinnati. Rosales was hitting .421 in 17 triple-A games, but he’s down to .240 in 20 MLB contests.

The Long-Shot: A 14th-round selection from the 1999 draft, Bobby Scales spent 10 seasons in the minors, mostly with San Diego. A career line of .285/.375/.432 was not enough to get him a chance in the Majors, in part due to poor defense as he played both the infield (mostly second) and the outfield. Scales spent parts of seven seasons in triple-A. He is a long shot for the NL RoY award because his playing time will be limited in Chicago.

After a week’s hiatus due to a busy schedule, we’re back with the weekly Minor Impacts, which is a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have an impact at the Major League Level in 2009.

Nolan Reimold: This talented player is absolutely killing the ball in Triple-A with a triple-slash line of .396/.484/.755 in 106 at-bats. Left field has been a black hole for the big-league club in 2009. However, 1+1 does not always equal 2 in Baltimore, no doubt much to Reimold’s chagrin. Felix Pie is hitting .180 and Lou Montanez is a bench player. It’s time to see what the former second-round pick (2005) can do – and at 25 years old Reimold’s not getting any younger.

Gorkys Hernandez: This 21-year-old outfielder is also having a nice showing in the minors, although he’s currently playing in double-A. Hernandez is hitting .331/.391/.421 with seven steals in 31 games. He plays good defense, as well. Unfortunately, he still strikes out too much for a player with his skill set, but he can’t do much worse than current Braves center-fielder and rookie Jordan Schafer, who is striking out almost 40% of the time.

Drew Stubbs, Chris Heisey, and Todd Frazier: The Reds organization is about to have another glut of outfielders. No fewer than three outfielders are currently knocking on the big league door but there isn’t room for everyone. Perhaps the club should look to cash in on some of this depth to help out in the pitching department. Stubbs, 24, is hitting .333/.412/.467 in triple-A and has made strides in his strikeout rate. Chris Heisey, 24, has long been an underdog, but he just keeps hitting and is currently at .374/.471/.626 with a BB/K rate of 1.90 in double-A. Frazier, who converted to the outfield from third base this season, is batting .281/.314/.422 but has as much – or more – potential as the other two hotter hitters.

Chris Tillman: The Baltimore starting rotation is an ugly, ugly place to be these days, but Tillman could make things a lot more bearable in the near future. Only 21, the right-hander is dominating triple-A hitters and currently has a 2.03 ERA after allowing just 24 hits in 31 innings of work. His walk rate is a respectable 3.48 BB/9 and his strikeout rate is excellent at 10.74 K/9. Tillman has also not allowed a home run despite allowing more flyball outs than ground outs.

Vince Mazzaro: With so many young pitchers already having surfaced in Oakland this season, it’s hard to believe there are more on the horizon but there are and Mazzaro is leading the charge. He’s flown under the radar so far in his pro career despite the fact he was selected out of high school in the third round of the 2005 draft. Mazzaro is not flashy and he’s not a strikeout pitcher (6.81 K/9 in triple-A) but he gets a ton of groundball outs.

Honorable Mention: Jake Fox, a converted catcher, is not really a prospect anymore. He’s 26 years old and he can’t really play a position – not even first base. With that said, though, he can absolutely crush the ball and he’s hitting an unbelievable .402/.483/.941 with 14 homers in 102 at-bats. The Cubs should do him a favor and either release him or trade him to a needy American League club so he can at least prove that he’s nothing more than a future Japanese export or a quad-A slugger. In the last article we plugged Josh Whitesell as a player who needed a break and he was called up by Arizona, so here’s hoping lightning strikes twice.