Archive for Nick Blackburn

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Tommy Hanson, Braves

A product of the now-defunct draft-and-follow process (he was a 22nd-round pick in the 2005 draft), Hanson garnered plenty of headlines during his ascent to Atlanta. The 6-6 righty laid waste to AAA to start the 2009 season (66.1 IP, 12.21 K/9, 2.31 BB/9), and he has made a very strong first impression as the Braves look to stay in the playoff race.

Hanson has punched out 6.72 per nine frames in the majors, with 3.54 BB/9 and a 4.14 FIP in 73.2 IP. The soon-to-be 23 year-old has all the pitches: a 93 MPH fastball, 83 MPH slider, 75 MPH curve and an 83 MPH change of pace. Hanson is getting ahead of hitters pretty well (his 63.4 First-Pitch Strike% is over 4 percentage points above the MLB average), and his breaking pitches in particular look nasty.

Tommy’s slider has 3.7 inches of horizontal movement away from righties (the MLB avg. is 2.4), while his curve breaks downward slightly more than the average breaker (5.8 inches, 5.3 average), with 1.1 inches more horizontal break (6.4) than the average yellow hammer (5.3). Here’s Hanson’s movement chart from his August 11th start versus Washington:

Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies

The 23 year-old Venezuelan (formerly of Arizona and Oakland) seems to have garnered the “busted prospect” label, based largely upon his anemic work with the A’s in 2008 (.278 wOBA in 316 PA, with an untenable 4.1 BB% and 26.8 K%). It’s never wise to write off such a young player, however; it’s not as though his skill set will just automatically remain stagnant.

Shipped to Colorado in the off-season, Gonzalez pasted the Pacific Coast League for a .339/.418/.630 line in 223 PA in ’09. AAA Colorado Springs is certainly a favorable offensive environment (inflating offensive production by nine percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2006-2008), but CarGo did a better job of working the count with a 10.3% walk rate, whiffing 16.7% of the time.

Gonzalez is getting fairly regular playing time for the Rockies right now, and he has a .285/.341/.517 triple-slash in 170 PA. Coors caveats apply, but Carlos still has +3.5 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs on the season. He hasn’t transformed into some model of plate discipline (31.8 Outside-Swing%, 25% MLB average), but Gonzalez has taken ball four 8.5% of the time. He has also chipped in 8 steals in 9 attempts.

Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs

A Japanese star inked to a four-year, $48M deal prior to the 2008 season, Fukudome posted a .328 wOBA in his “rookie” season that was considered a big disappointment. It’s not like he was a bad player, though, walking nearly 14% of the time while playing plus defense in an outfield corner. A brutal second half (.217/.314/.326) fueled the perception that Fukudome was nothing more than a fourth outfielder, but there really wasn’t all that much changed in Kosuke’s core skills when compared to his scorching first half (.279/.383/.408). Some decline? Yes, but nothing that explains a near-90 percentage point dip in BABIP:

Fukudomania! (1st half): 14.2 BB%, 18.1 K%, .129 ISO, .335 BABIP
BOOO! (2nd half): 12.8 BB%, 16.7 K%, .109 ISO, .248 BABIP

In 2009, Fukudome has boosted his lumber production with a .369 wOBA. He’s drawing a walk 16% of the time, with a .191 ISO to boot. Kosuke has compiled 3 Wins Above Replacement already. He basically looks like the scouting reports suggested: great eye, doubles power with the occasional dinger, with a enough range to play a passable center field.

Neftali Feliz, Rangers

When the Rangers acquired a bounty of young talent from the Braves in the July 2007 Mark Teixeira blockbuster, Feliz was a hard-throwing string bean with less than 75 professional innings under his belt. Two years later, Feliz is just plain overmatching major league batters out of the ‘pen.

His repertoire in short stints has been sick: a 98 MPH fastball, an 81 MPH power curve and an 89 MPH changeup. A lot of guys throw hard, but few possess Feliz’s combination of velocity and movement: his fastball tails in on the hands of righty batters 7.4 inches (6 inch MLB avg), with 11.2 inches of horizontal break (8.6 avg.) He essentially throws his heater with 4-seam velocity and vertical movement, with the running action of a two-seamer.

In 8.2 IP, Neftali has whiffed 16 batters, without allowing a walk. His long-term future lies in the rotation, but he could conjure up memories of K-Rod’s 2002 dominance in the meantime.

Jonny Gomes, Reds

The former Rays slugger is anathema to all things leather (career -19.9 UZR/150 in the outfield), but the born DH has slammed NL pitching for 15 home runs and a .277/.357/.584 line in 196 plate appearances for the Reds. Gomes likely won’t continue to homer at a Pujols-like pace, but even a performance in line with his career .240/.332/.470 triple-slash would be of use to fantasy owners. He can slug with the best of them, and he’s in a ballpark that certainly digs the long ball.

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David Wright, Mets

Mets fans must be balled up in the fetal position by this point, no? The club entered the season with a strong shot of competing in the NL East on the basis of the Santana/Reyes/Wright/Beltran quartet of stars. Only Santana remains on the field now, as Wright took a 94 MPH Matt Cain fastball off the helmet in Saturday’s contest against the Giants.

The third baseman was having a productive, if atypical season at the plate in 2009. His .387 wOBA doesn’t look all the different, but Wright’s ISO dipped from around .220 from 2004-2008 to just .143 in 2009. He punched out a career-high 24.6% of the time, yet hit .324 on the basis of a ridiculous .415 BABIP.

The focus now, though, shifts to Wright’s long-term health. There’s a better chance of sudden peace in the Middle East than the Mets making the playoffs (Baseball Prospectus has New York’s odds at 0.15%; “so you’re telling me there’s a chance…Yeah!”) Wright didn’t “get his bell rung”, and he wasn’t “shook up”. He suffered a brain injury. There’s no incentive for the team to rush him back.

Johnny Cueto, Reds

Cueto has gotten throttled since the calendar turned to July. The 23 year-old Dominican gave up a .587 opponent slugging percentage that month, has been battered to the tune of a .644 SLG% in August. He cramped up during his August 11th start vs. St. Louis after two innings, then got drubbed for 8 H and 7 R in just 2.2 IP against the Nationals on the 15th.

Johnny has made some progress in terms of limiting free passes (3.03 BB/9, compared to 3.52 in ’08), but the homer problems persist. Cueto’s HR/FB% isn’t out of whack (11.2%), but the flyball-slanted righty has allowed 1.32 HR/9 this season after serving up 1.5 per nine in 2008. Reds skipper Dusty Baker has indicated that Cueto will have his next start skipped.

Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals

Not that long ago, I asked if Zimmermann might just be the best of 2009’s crop of rookie starters. Unfortunately, that argument is now moot. The 23 year-old righty will be out anywhere from 12-18 months following Tommy John surgery. It’s a highly disappointing development for Nationals fans, who had visions of a Strasburg/Zimmermann 1-2 duo leading the club out of the depths of the NL East standings.

Garrett Jones, Pirates

A 28 year-old minor league vet with a career .265/.321/.463 line in nearly 2,500 PA at the AAA level, Jones went all Shane Spencer on the NL in July (1.061 OPS, 10 HR). August has seen Mr. Jones hit a more reasonable .259/.333/.444, and even that is above what one would expect based on the big lefty batter’s minor league numbers. Per Minor League Splits, Jones’ work at AAA Indianapolis to begin to 2009 season translated to a .259/.291/.408 line at the highest level. His 2006-2008 translations are similarly bleak.

Performances at the extremes tend to skew the perception of a player. Jones’ incredible start likely had some running to the waiver wire to claim him, but his much larger body of work suggests that he’s more major league filler than some breakout performer.

Lastings Milledge, Pirates

Milledge has a clean slate in Pittsburgh, getting another opportunity to make good on the promise that made him a top prospect in the Mets system and a sought-after trade target of the Nationals. Thus far, it’s not working out very well. The 24 year-old has expanded his zone in the majors, walking just 6.6% of the time and swinging at nearly 32% of pitches off the plate), and he is hitting just .213/.259/.250 in 86 PA in 2009. Lastings’ walk rate under five percent. He’ll continue to get regular AB’s with the Pirates as they seek to rehabilitate his deteriorated plate approach, but it would be nice to see some sort of progress here.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 19.

Nick Blackburn – Earlier this season, I highlighted Blackburn as a guy to sit due to his two road starts. Well, this week he has two home games. In the Metrodome, Blackburn is 5-0 with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.297 WHIP. Make sure he is active for his home games versus Kansas City and Cleveland.

Jorge de la Rosa – He got hammered in his last start in Philadelphia, where he gave up three HR in five innings. But de la Rosa was on fire prior to that, with Quality Starts in his previous six games. Another thing in de la Rosa’s favor this week is that he takes his 8.83 K/9 rate up against two teams in the top half of the league in strikeouts, including the Marlins, who lead the NL with 852 whiffs.

Kyle Lohse – Yes, it is hard to recommend a pitcher who just got roughed up by the Mets but that start was on the road. This week Lohse has two games in Busch Stadium, where he has a 2.98 ERA, a 1.059 WHIP and all four of his wins this season.

Marc Rzepczynski – Usually I hate those nicknames where you take a player’s first initial and then tag on the first few letters of his last name. But in Rzepczynski I think I am willing to make an exception. But keep M-Rzep on the bench this week. Yes, the ERA, K and WHIP all look good so far in his first six starts in the majors. But with road games this week at New York and at Tampa Bay, it is probably wise to get someone else in the lineup this week.

Jonathan Sanchez – Since returning to the rotation the second week of July following two outings in the bullpen, Sanchez has a 3-1 record and a 2.76 ERA in five games. He still has some gopher ball tendencies, but he faces the Dodgers (12th in NL in HR) and Mets (last in NL) this week, two teams not known for their power. Make sure he is active this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 17 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Harden, Jackson, Chamberlain, Floyd, Garza, Danks, Happ, Volstad, Cook, Oswalt, Cueto, Pelfrey, Penny, Porcello, Lannan, Davis, Braden, Smoltz, Schmidt, Ohlendorf, Looper, Guthrie, Gaudin, Padilla, VandenHurk, Gorzelanny, Moehler, French, Laffey, Mitre, O’Sullivan, J. Vargas, Davies, Lehr, Boggs.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 17 and how they did.

Garland – Advised to start. W, 3.00 ERA, 4 Ks, 0.93 WHIP (2 starts)
Hunter – Advised to start. W, 3.75 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.42 WHIP (2)
Marquis – Advised to start. 3.46 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.08 WHIP (2)
Saunders – Advised to sit. W, 6.55 ERA, 4 Ks, 2.00 WHIP (2)
Wolf – Advised to start. 3.75 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.67 WHIP (2)

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Rich Harden, Cubs

Fantasy owners pretty much know what to expect from Harden by this point: transient brilliance, followed by a stint or two on the disabled list. 2009 has been little different (10.56 K/9, 3.77 BB/9), though an inflated homer rate (1.74 HR/9, 16.7 HR/FB%) has put a dent in his ERA, which sits at 4.50. The 27 year-old Canadian has been considerably better than that: his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP), based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is 3.64. That’s exactly the same as his 2008 figure (when his ERA was slightly over two).

Rich has been on a tear lately, with 32 K’s, 5 walks and 5 runs allowed in 24 innings over his past four starts. Harden is one of those great “what if” pitchers. He crushes hitters with a fastball/changeup combo (he scrapped a plus slider because it caused him discomfort), and just about no one makes contact against him (his 67.9% contact rate is the lowest among starters tossing 90+ frames). If only we knew that he would make his next start…

Andrew McCutchen, Pirates

Some in the Pittsburgh media choose to ignore age, durability, service time and baseball economics, howling at every trade the Pirates make. To hear some tell it, it’s as if Pirates management is Kurtz-like, putting veteran Bucco heads on poles and keeping all the money and ivory for themselves- “The horror! they traded someone I know for someone I don’t!”.

Meanwhile, McCutchen is showing that these purportedly worthless, alien beings received for those beloved vets (sometimes referred to as “prospects”) can actually turn into studs. One of the very few successful remnants of the Dave Littlefield era, McCutchen is a 22 year-old with a shed full of tools. In his rookie campaign, the ’05 first-rounder is more than holding his own (.292/.347/.484, .365 wOBA in 239 PA).

McCutchen’s three-homer outburst on Saturday versus the Nationals is not something that should be expected on a regular basis (he slugged .423 in the minors), but he has some thump in his bat and a decent eye at the plate. Owners will also take note of his outstanding raw speed- McCutchen has swiped 10 bags in 12 tries in the majors, though his work at AAA Indianapolis last season (64.1% success rate) suggests he still needs some work on reading pitchers.

Jeff Niemann, Rays

A 2004 first-round pick out of Rice, Niemann punched out 9.1 batters per nine innings in the minor leagues. However, he whiffed just slightly above five per nine in the majors from April-June. The 6-9 right-hander has picked up the pace since then, with 20 K’s in 26.2 July frames (6.8 K/9) and 7 K’s in 8 IP during his first start of August. Niemann also limited the free passes, with 4 walks in July and none in his first outing this month. In fact, the 26 year-old is pounding the zone more and more as the year goes on:

Niemann’s Zone%, by month (the MLB average is 49.3%)

April: 46.2
May: 51.2
June: 53.2
July: 59.6

Kendry Morales, Angels

Heading into the 2009 season, the Cuban switch-hitter figured to be something of a drag on Los Angeles’ offense. First base is a position where if a player doesn’t mash, they’re a liability. And Morales’ preseason projections looked bleak:

CHONE: .327 wOBA
Oliver: .333
ZiPS: .325

Instead, the 26 year-old has popped 23 home runs, slugged .581 and posted a .383 wOBA. That’s pretty impressive, but believe it or not, that ranks 12th among first baseman. Morales is handling fastballs well (+0.98 runs/100 pitches), but throwing him a curveball has pretty much been the worst idea, ever (+5.13 runs/100).

Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies

Jimenez entered the 2009 campaign with plenty going his way. After all, the 25 year-old sat in the mid-90’s with his fastball (and it’s not straight as an arrow), with a pair of nasty breaking pitches and a nice changeup as well. The big question was: could he hit the strike zone more often?

The answer appears to be a resounding “yes.” Jimenez has lowered his walk rate from 4.67 per nine innings in 2008 to 3.38 in ’09, while missing more bats (8.02 K/9, up from 7.79). That’s awfully impressive, when you consider that Ubaldo putting fewer runners on first means fewer chances to K hitters (his percentage of batters punched out is up from 19.8 to 21.1).

Obscene stuff, improved control, and groundball tendencies (52.6 GB%)? What’s not to like?

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Jarrod Washburn, Tigers

The newest Tiger has turned in a pretty nice season, as his 2.39 K/BB ratio is the highest mark of his career. But a 2.64 ERA pitcher he is not: Washburn (a flyball, pitch-to-contact lefty residing in friendly Safeco) has benefitted from a .249 BABIP (second-lowest among starters) and his 79.5% strand rate is over five percent above his career figure.

Heading to Detroit, Washburn will still pitch in front of a quality defense (the Tigers place 5th in team UZR), but it would be prudent to expect that shiny ERA to rise at least somewhat. Washburn’s rest-of-season ZiPS ERA comes in at 4.73, which is probably a little on the harsh side. But if you can barter the soon-to-be- 35 year-old southpaw for something substantial, this would be the time to do it. Washburn isn’t bad by any means, but he’s more of a low-four ERA pitcher than the ace that his ERA would indicate.

Brandon Wood, Angels

Wood needs a hug, an off-season trade, or both. The long-time prospect was optioned back to AAA on deadline day, after another big league call-up in which he mostly sipped Gatorade and waited to be sent back to Salt Lake.

In three years and 220 PA of scattershot major league playing time, Wood has posted a 2.8% walk rate, while punching out 31.1% of the time. The righty batter has plenty of pop (he’s hitting .313/.366/.587 at AAA, though Salt Lake is a hitter-friendly venue), but L.A.’s surprisingly adept offense leaves Wood toiling in AAA. His questionable control of the zone leads to some less-than-stellar Major League Equivalencies: according to Minor League Splits, Wood’s 2009 season translates to .253/.294/.462 at the highest level.

Nick Blackburn, Twins

As a pitcher who puts the ball in play as often as anyone (only John Lannan has a lower K rate among starters), Blackburn is subject to the caprices of his defense. That worked out pretty well during the first three months of the season…

BABIP by month

April: .307
May: .273
June: .271

…but July was most unkind to the to the sinker/cutter righty. Blackburn suffered from a .347 BABIP, surrendering 23 runs in 31.1 IP. If you’re expecting ace-like production from Nick, he’ll sorely disappoint you. Blackburn is basically a right-handed Zach Duke, as a strike-tossing starter who will occasionally have a month where more of those squibbers find holes. Unfortunately, the Twins haven’t been particularly adept with the leather (ranking 27th in team UZR).

Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins

If Bonifacio is still in your starting lineup, then you’re likely a masochist, in last place, or both. The switch-hitting infielder, formerly of the D-Backs and Nationals, has shown a dizzying propensity to make outs this season. His .275 wOBA “bests” only Jason Kendall and Willy Taveras among qualified batters, but he’ll now have a reduced role in Florida with the club’s acquisition of OBP fiend Nick Johnson.

Jorge Cantu will slide over to third base, with Bonifacio apparently platooning with Chris Coghlan in left field. Cantu has been statuesque at third (-14.5 UZR/150 career), but even with a lead glove, the move improves Florida’s chances. Some quick, back-of-the-napkin math comparing a Cantu 1B/Bonifacio 3B infield to a Johnson 1B/Cantu 3B alignment has the Fish coming out with a 1-1.5 win upgrade over the rest of the season.

Jack Cust, Athletics

Oakland’s DH/”outfielder” has experienced a goofy 2009 season. Long a Three True Outcomes hero, Cust has gradually put the ball in play more often:

2007: 21 BB%, 41.5 K%, 31.7 HR/FB%
2008: 18.8 BB%, 41 K%, 29.7 HR/FB%
2009: 14.5 BB%, 33 K%, 15.2 HR/FB%

Has Jack consciously changed his approach at the plate in order to put the bat on the ball more often? It seems like it. Cust’s Outside-Swing% is up to 19.8%, from 2008’s 15.3% rate. He’s swinging at more pitches within the zone as well (69.4%, compared to 62.8% in ’08), while making contact with 80.6% of those pitches within the zone (71.1% in 2008). Overall, Cust has offered at 43% of pitches seen, well above his 38.3% clip in 2008.

If Jack is trying to shorten his swing and make more contact, he might want to stop. Cust posted a .245 Isolated Power in ’08, but that figure is down to .172 this year. A less-powerful, less TTO-ish Cust has been a league average hitter (.335 wOBA).

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 16

Nick Blackburn – This season Blackburn is 5-0 at home and has allowed just one HR in 57.1 IP. On the road he is 3-4 and he has allowed nine HR in 66 IP. With road starts at Oakland and at Anaheim, it might be a good time to pull him from the lineup if you have a reasonable alternative.

Brett Cecil – The rookie has appeared in nine games for Toronto this season, making eight starts. The overall numbers do not look very good, but he has five Quality Starts. In his three bad outings, one came on the road in Fenway Park and the other came on the road in Yankee Stadium. I like him for a guy to pick up this week for his two home starts against the Indians and the Rays.

Chad Gaudin – You have to like the 9.58 K/9 ratio. Unfortunately, that comes with a WHIP-killing 4.95 BB/9. However, in his last six starts, Gaudin has a 1.115 WHIP and a 3.11 ERA. And with a home start versus Florida and a road start at Washington, Gaudin has a chance to pull out a win or two if he continues his recent strong pitching.

Kyle Lohse – This year Lohse is 4-3 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.068 WHIP at home and is 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA and a 1.727 WHIP on the road. Last year in his first year with the Cardinals, Lohse was 8-2 with a 3.32 ERA at home and 1.140 WHIP while away from Busch Stadium he was 7-4 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.524 WHIP. With road starts at Houston and at Philadelphia, put Lohse on the bench this week.

Ervin Santana – He got his second win of the season in the Angels’ first game back from the All-Star break, as he allowed just two walks in eight innings. Santana has been on the DL twice this season, first with an elbow injury and more recently due to a triceps injury. But Santana hit 94 on the radar last night and is rounding back into the pitcher he was last year when he posted 16 wins. Get him in the lineup this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 16 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lee, Danks, Lowe, Braden, Floyd, Millwood, Scherzer, Pettitte, Hanson, Price, Smoltz, Meche, Lannan, Davis, Galarraga, Porcello, De La Rosa, Sanchez, Moyer, Niemann, Ohlendorf, Wellemeyer, L. Hernandez, Sadowski, Moehler, Olson, Owings, Richard, Gonzalez, V. Vasquez, D. Hernandez, Jeff Weaver, Swarzak, Lopez, O’Sullivan, Banks.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 14 and how they did.

Contreras – Advised to start. W, 1.42 ERA, 5 K, 1.00 WHIP (1 start)
Garland – Advised to sit. W, 2.57 ERA, 9 K, 1.29 WHIP (2)
Pelfrey – Advised to start. W, 6.30 ERA, 8 K, 1.80 WHIP (2)
Romero – Advised to start. W, 3.77 ERA, 8 K, 1.40 WHIP (2)
Zimmemann – Advised to sit. 4.35 ERA, 9 K, 1.84 WHIP (2)

Hopefully you were able to pick up Adam LaRoche and trade Derek Lowe last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Obtain

Andre Ethier – With Manny Ramirez in the lineup, Ethier had a .317/.438/.558 line. Once Ramirez was suspended, Ethier’s numbers fell to .222/.293/.438. But as you may have heard, Manny is back now and hopefully Ethier’s production picks up, too. Ethier is also being slowed by a .264 BABIP. His lifetime mark in the category is .323 and he had a .336 mark last season.

Charlie Morton – He has been very productive in Triple-A the past two seasons but struggled last year during his MLB debut. He fell behind Tommy Hanson and others in the Braves pecking order but now has a new lease on life in Pittsburgh. Morton averages 91.6 with his fastball and he complements that with both a slider and a changeup. He throws ground balls, keeps the ball in the park and gets a few more strikeouts than you might expect. Morton has a 5.82 K/9, which while lower than his minor league numbers, is consistent with the 5.79 K/9 he put up in 16 games with Atlanta last season.

Martin Prado – Atlanta’s super sub has not fallen off since taking over the full-time second base job. In his last 10 starts, Prado has a .405/.457/.667 line. He has third base eligibility from last year and depending on your league settings, he might qualify at 1B (19) and 2B (14), too. Prado’s BABIP seems high at .329 but he has a lifetime .340 mark in the category.

Ryan Sadowski – The first thing that jumps out at you with the Giants rookie is the 4.17 GB/FB ratio in his first two major league starts. In Triple-A this year he had a 47.6 percent ground ball ratio compared to 29.8 percent fly balls. The Giants rank fifth in the NL in DER with a .703 mark and sixth overall in UZR with a 22.9 rating. And with Juan Uribe taking over at 2B, the Giants have a stronger infield defense than earlier in the season. Sadowski does not have star potential but he could be a nice option to fill out the back of your pitching staff. Scott Ostler in the San Francisco Chronicle had a nice story recently on Sadowski and his path to the majors.

Gordon Beckham – The eighth overall pick in the 2008 draft, Beckham hit 28 homers in 275 at-bats in his junior season at Georgia. After a slow start in the majors, Beckham is batting .405-2-8 in his last 10 games. The big question coming out of college was if Beckham could play SS in the majors. Right now he is settling in as the starting 3B for the White Sox. His power will be nothing special for a 3B but he hit .322 in parts of two seasons in the upper minors and he could be a four-category contributor, with only a limited value in SB.

Exchange

Aaron Rowand – He had a career year in 2007 thanks to a personal-best .348 BABIP. This year he checks in with a .368 mark in the category. In addition to hitting .309, 2007 was such a good year because he hit 27 HR. Rowand should easily top last year’s mark of 13, but updated ZiPS forecasts him to finish with 16. He is not a force in any of the other categories, so trade him while his AVG is flirting with .300

Nick Blackburn – It is tough to succeed consistently while striking out fewer than four batters per game and that is the tightrope that Blackburn walks. Currently, his ERA sits at 2.94 thanks to a 76.3 percent strand rate and a HR/FB mark of 6.5 percent. Right now Blackburn is a plus pitcher in three categories and now is the time to trade him while his value is highest.

Hideki Matsui – After being forced to the bench for eight straight Interleague games, Matsui has been on a mini hot streak, batting .500-3-10 in his last six games. But Matsui’s value is being propped up by a career-best 16.9 percent HR/FB ratio. His .253 ISO is also a career-high and only the third time in his seven-year career he has been over .200 in the category. Matsui has room for improvement in his AVG but is likely to drop off in HR while his R/RBI numbers are nothing special. And since he is limited to DH duty, Matsui faces limits on his playing time, especially if Jorge Posada’s thumb needs extra time off from behind the plate.

Jair Jurrjens – He has lost five of his last six decisions yet Jurrjens has seen his ERA go up only 0.37 runs in that span. But Jurrjens has been a little lucky, too. After allowing a FB% of 26.5 percent last year, in 2009 that number is 40.5 percent. But his HR/FB is 5.4 percent, the eighth-lowest mark in the majors. In addition to the good fortune with homers, Jurrjens has a 75.9 percent strand rate and a .279 BABIP. So, while everyone else focuses on his run support (two runs or fewer in nine of 18 games), be aware that his ERA and WHIP are likely to rise in the coming months.

Michael Cuddyer – ESPN shows Cuddyer on track to hit 27 HR, which would be a career-high for him. He is hitting slightly fewer fly balls than he did last year but the homers are coming thanks to a 17.6 percent HR/FB ratio, which would be (you guessed it) a personal-best.

Kevin Slowey shows us that it’s not enough to just not walk guys. If your stuff is hittable, batters will earn their bases on the field.

That said, Slowey had a very nice year last year, and with a K/9 right around the league average (6.90 K/9), there was some hope that he would build on the campaign and take another step forward this year.

So far, fans and fantasy managers are still waiting for that step forward. Instead, Slowey’s strikeout rate has fallen almost a full run (6.02), and his 1.54 WHIP is full of dinks, dunks and blasts. It’s certainly not walks, as Slowey still sports an elite walk rate (0.89 BB/9). The question lingers: how much of this poor start is lousy luck and how much is due to mediocre stuff?

Luck has surely played a big part. His BABIP is .370 and his FIP is 4.44, so his ERA is a little bloated by the luck of the bounce. But even the secondary statistics can’t agree about his luck. He’s sporting a 35.4% infield fly ball rate, which is unsustainably lucky (it’s 15% for his career). Also, he’s stranding 76.6% of his baserunners, which is slightly lucky. And for a guy with a career home run rate over 1 per game, his 10.8% home run per fly ball rate is very neutral.

He’s also giving up a career high 24.1% line drive rate, which is a good spot to start talking about his stuff. With an 89 MPH fastball, an 84 MPH slider, a 74 MPH curveball and an 83 MPH changeup, there’s just not enough differentiation in speed between his pitches to really keep the hitters off balance. He’s usually in the zone (see his walk rate), and his 91.3% contact rate in the zone puts him at 24th worst in the league in that category. (Teammate Glen Perkins ‘leads’ the league with batters making contact on 98% of pitches inside the zone, and Nick Blackburn is 23rd, so there’s something in the water in Minnesota, it seems.)

A quick look at some pitch F/X samples doesn’t provide too many clues. Slowey’s slider is actually breaking a couple inches more this year, and the rest of his stuff seems intact, with one major caveat. Slowey has lost almost a mile per hour on his fastball (89.9 to 89.2). His slider has lost one and a half miles per hour (85.7 to 84.1). Since he wasn’t much of a strikeout pitcher to begin with, and his stuff isn’t very fierce either, this slight velocity loss may be some of the reason for his poor start this year. Without more velocity history, it’s hard to tell if this is a temporary blip or not, but a peek at his next pitch f/x data would be a good idea for those thinking of acquiring him. A few ‘90’s on the gun would serve him well.

Another interesting question that arises when looking at Slowey’s numbers is if he should pitch outside the zone a little more. Batters are reaching on 26.2% of his offerings outside the strike zone, a number in line with his past (25.9% career). That number also puts him right next to such strikeout luminaries as Felix Hernandez and Jake Peavy. Since batters make contact on 72.9% on those pitches, it may be possible that Slowey could expand his zone a little for better results.