Archive for New York Yankees

At this point, it’s fairly well-accepted that the vaunted Jesus Montero/Michael Pineda trade has not worked out especially well for either the Yankees or the Mariners. Montero has hit all of .252/.293/.377 while playing poor defense and amassing -1.0 WAR; meanwhile, Hector Noesi has gone 2-13 with a 5.79 ERA, 5.36 FIP, and -0.7 WAR. Montero’s been the second-worst catcher of the past two seasons according to WAR, whereas Noesi has been the third-worst pitcher (min. 100 IP). Meanwhile, Pineda has yet to throw an inning for the Yankees due to injury problems.

Indeed, the only player of the four in that deal who was healthy and remotely effective for the duration of the 2013 season was the throw-in on the other side, Jose Campos. Of course, the level he was effective at was Low-A, and Campos has endured his own post-trade misfortune, making five starts in 2012 before being shut down with elbow problems and missing the rest of the season. But he once was considered arguably the top pitching prospect in short-season ball, and he did have a fine season this year, with a 3.41 ERA, 2.87 FIP, and 77/16 K/BB in 87 2/3 innings (The low innings total was due to an extremely short leash–with the exception of one outing, he was only allowed to work 2-4 innings each time out–not an abbreviated season). So what exactly do the Yankees have here?

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The New York Yankees received some devastating news this week when their star outfielder Curtis Granderson broke his forearm after being hit by a pitch. Granderson has done an admirable job during his three years in pinstripes. He has so far accumulated 406 hits, 108 home runs and a .247/.337/.506 slash line while playing in New York. The Granderson news got me thinking about the organization’s long term future in the outfield. I’ve been very impressed by the looks I’ve gotten at star prospect Mason Williams. While he is recovering from shoulder surgery and obviously not ready to fill in for Granderson or help the major league team quite yet he does remain the team’s best prospect. I thought we’d take a look at what kind of player Williams can be once he is ready for the big leagues.

The Breakdown

When I saw Williams for the first time in 2011 what immediately stood out was how very skinny he is. His build at the time looked more like “marathon runner” rather than “baseball player.” The upside of this is that Williams had and still has a lot of room to put good weight and muscle on his frame without losing athleticism. In 2012 he did begin this process and bulked up a bit. Williams is a very good athlete and plus runner yet he’s not quite a true “burner.” He is a capable base stealer but is doing so on speed right now rather than technique. He’ll need to continue to improve reading pitchers and getting jumps as he faces more advanced competition. He’s not Billy Hamilton but 20 plus stolen bases is reasonable. Williams will be a contributor but non-elite option on the basepaths for your fantasy squad.

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Round and round she goes; where she stops, nobody knows.  This closer carousel that keeps spinning around this season is starting to become downright unbearable.  They say never to pay a premium for saves on draft day because they’ll be abundant on your waiver wire, but this is ridiculous.  Now it’s getting to the point where you shouldn’t be spending so much of your FAAB dollars either because the shelf-life of a closer in 2012 is about a week.  Here’s a look at who’s getting the baton passed to them now… Read the rest of this entry »

When news broke that 39 year old, lefty slugger Raul Ibanez was signing with the Yankees, his ADP took a significant jump.  In fact, he jumped nearly 35 picks (3 rounds in a 12-team league), going from 21st round bench help to 18th round possible fifth or sixth outfielder.  But while there still may be something left in the tank, Ibanez won’t be an everyday player.  He might make for an acceptable option in deep AL-only leagues but for mixed leagues, he’ll better serve you on the “plug and play” level.

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There’s no question that Russell Martin’s power resurgence last season came as a bit of surprise.  Obviously a move from pitcher-friendly Chavez Ravine to hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium (along with that surrounding Yankee lineup) was promising, but to watch a guy whose ISO went from .176 down to .085 over a four year span, there had to be some serious doubts in his ability to produce again.  Overuse and injuries were likely to blame for the decline, in part, but as we move forward and examine some of Martin’s other numbers at the plate, there certainly has to be a reasonable amount of doubt in anything close to a repeat performance.  Or is there…? Read the rest of this entry »

While Michael Pineda’s move from Seattle to the Bronx means he should easily reach double-digit wins now that he has an offense with a pulse supporting him, the change in home ballparks isn’t as sunny. Pineda’s old home, Safeco Field, is a graveyard for power hitters and a perfect spot for a pitcher who takes to the air often. Yankee Stadium, by contrast, goes 314 feet and 318 down the lines, turning warning-track shots in other parks into souvenirs. But those fretting over how Pineda will adjust to New York should take a closer look at his 2011 season — hitters lofted far fewer pitches against him during the second half of the season. That makes his transition to the Bronx a far less scary proposition.

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Regardless of which side of the fence you sit on as to who got the better end of the deal, Friday’s trade between the Mariners and the Yankees — Michael Pineda and Jose Campos for Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi — was a solid baseball deal that will improve both clubs in areas in which each were lacking.  The Yankees were starving for arms and the M’s were in desperate need of a legitimate impact bat for the middle of their anemic lineup.  We’ve already heard from Michael Barr on the fantasy angle of Pineda’s move to pinstripes, so let’s tackle the other side for immediate impact.  Say what you want about Montero’s limited number of at bats at the major league level; this guy can hit.  If you believe, then welcome aboard.  If not, great!  That’s less of an investment we smart owners will have to make.

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America learned yesterday that Yankees’ third baseman Alex Rodriguez has a small tear in his right meniscus. A-Rod has two options regarding his injury: he can choose to play through it, or he could opt for surgery that would land him on the DL for about a month’s time, allowing him to come back for the playoff run. Rodriguez has yet to make his decision, instead seeking a second opinion this afternoon.

If A-Rod opts for surgery, odds are Eduardo Nunez is going to be the first in line for playing time at the hot corner in New York. Nunez stepped in for Derek Jeter after The Captain landed on the DL, and he played relatively well. We only have a little more than 180 plate appearances to judge Nunez with, but his skill set appears pretty evident within that small sample.

Nunez, 24, has done a great job of limiting strikeouts in his major league career, allowing him to have a solid batting average despite lower BABIPs. Nunez also has some speed on the basepaths, stealing ten bags in fourteen tries this season, but he is no burner who is going to win you the steals category. All in all, Nunez will probably give you a .275 average with a handful of steals if A-Rod misses a month, along with good runs scored and RBIs thanks to the Yankees lineup. Even if you have a solid third baseman, Nunez is eligible at SS, so he’s not just a one trick pony.

If A-Rod does decide to play through his injury, Nunez will still have some value for certain owners in deep leagues. We all know third base has been a pretty poor position the last couple of years, so options on the waiver wire tend to be few and far between. If A-Rod is playing hurt, then owners will likely want a solid backup option in case he breaks down, or for when he is forced to take a day off. Nunez will likely play if A-Rod breaks down or gets a day off, and could even see time if the Yankees choose to rotate A-Rod through the DH slot once or twice a week to limit his discomfort, and you could slot Nunez into your shortstop spot on those days if you were so inclined.

With so many articles designed to help you win your fantasy league this season, it’s time we threw some out to the bottom-feeders, especially those in keeper and dynasty leagues.  While most of the competitors currently in the lower third of your league’s standings couldn’t care less about what’s going on today, it is the wise and savvy GM that continuously prepares for the future.  With so much young talent behind the dish these days, it only makes sense to see what’s out there beyond the horizon.  So here’s a look at a couple of top catching prospects that could debut with a late season call-up this year, but will likely be forced to wait in the minors until their time comes in 2012. Read the rest of this entry »

Dave covered the signing of CC Sabathia on the front page, but what about CC’s fantasy value?

Wins: Sabathia went 6-8 with the Indians and 11-2 after the trade to Milwaukee. Sabathia’s early season woes have something to do with the mediocre Indians record (remember how he allowed 27 earned runs in his first 18 innings? Neither do most people) Sabathia did have a few tough losses though, two with Cleveland in which he allowed two runs or less, and one with Milwaukee. The 2008 Yankees offense scored less runs than the Indians, despite seemingly have more offensive talent, they did outscore the Brewers. In 2009, without Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu, but with Nick Swisher and Robinson Cano regressing towards being good again, and a few probable free agent additions, the offense should maintain decent run support for Sabathia.

ERA: Don’t go out of the way to get your hands on Sabathia expecting a 2.70 ERA again. It’s rough to estimate, but Marcels has him at 3.22. That’s a pretty reliable projection, and we should expect a slight bump in moving back to the American League.

Innings: Same story as ERA, it’s likely that 2008 was the absolute peak for Sabathia’s workload unless the Yankees get a little too frivolous with their new toy. He’s still CC Sabathia, and he’s still going to get a few complete games, but again, don’t expect a complete game one-third of the time.

Strikeouts and Walks: Sabathia struck out a career high per nine. Sabathia’s strikeout percentage of total batters faced increased a smidge, from 24.3% with Cleveland to 24.8% with Milwaukee. It’s possible for a bit of regression here, Sabathia’s been up trending for three straight seasons. Here’s a graphical look at Sabathia’s strikeout rates:

WHIP: With walk rates covered, let’s look at hit rates. Sabathia’s had a pretty average BABIP the past few seasons. As a team, Yankees pitchers had a collective .323 BABIP against last season good for third highest in the league last season. The Brewers and Indians were quite a bit better, which is to be expected, given both of those teams likely have better defense, suggesting it’s probable to see Sabathia’s batting average against raise.

Conclusion: It’s possible that Sabathia becomes less valuable despite potentially earning more wins. Expect his ERA and WHIP to increase while his strikeout rate and innings load dip.