Archive for Nationals

In the past 30 days, Michael Taylor — the current National, not the former Athletic — has hit four home runs and stolen six bases to go with seven runs and 16 RBI. Mike Podhorzer tabbed Taylor as a sleeper in March. In the post, he notes his own projections largely validated Steamer’s and ZiPS’ projections for Taylor, although his anticipated better than 10-homer power across 600 plate appearances.

Now at 10 homers and 14 steals through 345 plate appearances, Taylor seeks to make all his projections look silly. His counting stats currently pace out to 17 home runs, 24 stolen bases, 54 runs and 80 RBI for a full season.

At 24 years old, Taylor appears poised to contribute legitimately to fantasy teams not only now (considering the possibility Denard Span does not return this season) but also for years to come. Indeed, his tools inspired a bold prediction on his behalf, of which he fell short but for which he kindly did not embarrass the author.

Amid my lauding of his past 30 days, however, I deliberately omitted an important detail: Taylor is batting .214 with a sub-.250 on-base percentage (OBP) thanks to strikeout and walk rates of 33.0 and 2.9 percent. Despite his toolsiness, both present and past — in 2014, he hit 23 homers and stole 37 bases, mostly at AA — it’s evident why Taylor doesn’t have garner prospect coverage the way George Springer and Joc Pederson once did.

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Episode 92

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris to preview the New York Mets and the Washington Nationals.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music

Approximately 74 min of joyous analysis.

ADP results from NFBC

The Nationals made a move that could leave fantasy owners mildly perturbed, acquiring David DeJesus from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for a player to be named later. DeJesus was batting .250 with a .330 OBP while playing a well-regarded centerfield before being traded.

When you boil it down, this is a deal involving a newly minted fourth outfielder, but there are many players whose values could be altered with this simple deal. Let’s examine each and every one of them, shall we?

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Going into the season, Davey Johnson, Mike Rizzo, and the rest of the Washington Nationals’ decision makers certainly expected to get strong production from their first basemen and that’s exactly what happened. Nationals’ first basemen combined to hit .285/.355/.547 with 40 HR, 118 RBI, and even a single, solitary stolen base. That .902 OPS was the third highest mark in baseball behind the Tigers — the honorable Prince Fielder presiding — and the Reds pair of Joey Votto and Todd Frazier, though the Nationals were the only team to break the 40 home run barrier. So all went exactly according to plan as Washington changed the old saying around to “first in war, first in peace, first in the NL East.”

Except it wasn’t nearly so simple as that. Read the rest of this entry »

Heading into the 2008 season, Ryan Zimmerman was a Top 10 fantasy third baseman according to most cheat sheets. Then he suffered a shoulder injury that caused him to miss 47 days during the year. Prior to the injury, Zimmerman was having a poor season. He posted a .257/.291/.427 line in 220 plate appearances before hitting the DL. Upon returning to the active roster, Zimmerman went .306/.370/.455 in his final 245 PA. And there has been no reports of lingering problems with the shoulder in the off-season.

Zimmerman hits for a pretty good AVG but does not offer the slugging one would expect from a top 3B. His HR/FB% has been remarkably consistent the past three seasons, with last year’s 11.5 percent a tenth of a percent higher than his previous two campaigns. The problem is he doesn’t hit enough fly balls. Last year his FB% was just 34.1 percent.

Since we know Zimmerman is not going to be a big HR threat, he needs to maximize his other categories in order to be an elite player at the hot corner. A .300 AVG is not out of the question nor is 100 RBIs and Runs.

If Zimmerman can hit those targets, he could be a top 10 3B even with a HR output in the low 20s. One thing to keep in mind is the depth of the 3B position, which gets a big boost from players at other positions (like Kevin Youkilis, Aubrey Huff and Christopher Davis) who played mostly elsewhere in 2008 yet still surpassed the 20-game mark at the hot corner. It’s not a given Zimmerman will be a starting-quality 3B.

But fantasy owners can’t simply allow Zimmerman to fall off the radar, either. Because of last year’s injury problems and his lack of big HR numbers throughout his career, he’s likely to be under-valued in many drafts. And with a decent chance to approach triple-digits in Runs and RBIs, Zimmerman offers a lot of upside for a player apt to be available in the bottom half of most drafts.