Archive for Nate McLouth

Why is Alex Wood only the 15th most expensive pitcher today? With a price tag of only $11,219, he represents a nice value today for several reasons, the first of which is that he is good. And we’ll discuss that more in a moment. But there is also the fact that he will be facing the Nationals who have the 4th worst wRC+ against left-handed pitching like Wood. And the weather conditions in Atlanta will be favorable for pitchers. Game time temperature is projected to be fairly low at 70, and the wind will be blowing in from right at 7 mph.

But Wood being good is the most important factor. Kevin Correia has a good match up and favorable weather conditions today, but that isn’t enough to make you ignore his below average ERA and strikeout rate. The quality of the pitcher is obviously still a factor. Read the rest of this entry »

Back in 2009, Eric Seidman wrote a piece here that looked into when samples become reliable for certain statistics. The piece was based off work done by Pizza Cutter. You can read the piece here for a full explanation of how the conclusions were reached, but below is a list showing how many PAs it takes for a statistic to become reliable. Read the rest of this entry »

If last year was any indication of what we can expect form the Orioles outfield, then fantasy owners are going to want to get in on the action again this season. The breakout season of Adam Jones was huge, the shortened but pleasant return to form of Nick Markakis was a nice surprise, and although injuries and match-up playing cluttered up left field most of the time, the O’s still managed to get decent production out of the spot on the whole. Jones and Markakis return again in 2013 and while left field is still being settled, should all go according to plan, the outfield should remain a quality source of fantasy production this year. Read the rest of this entry »

In place of a post ranking the outfielders, I thought it might be fun to update the news about a rank outfielder or two. Badumching. Joe Pawlikowski did a nice piece on the front of the site talking about Nate McLouth and his strikeouts, but that was almost a month ago, and much has changed since then. In the meantime, the Braves traded for another center fielder, watched him play for a few days, and then went right back to the well with McLouth. Small sample sizes!

Of course, it’s not too hard to beat out Rick Ankiel these days. He still takes a walk right around league average (9.7% this year, 7.9% carer) while whiffing along with the league leaders (35.3% this year, 27.2% career). The silly thing is that while the whiffs have come with the usual corresponding poor batting average (.234 this year, .248 career), they have not come with boost in power that often comes with the all-or-nothing swing. In fact, Ankiel has now been at league average with the power stroke for two straight years (.156 last year, .152 this year, .194 career). Add in the fact that UZR/150 doesn’t like his center field defense (-11.7 career), and you have an unworthy player. Or, to be more precise, a player worth just about nothing (0.2 WAR on the year).

Then again, saying something like “Nate McLouth walks more, strikes out less, and has similar power, more speed and better outfield defense than Rick Ankiel’ is akin to saying that the Yankees have been run better than the Mets in recent history. Badumching yet again, I’ll be here all the week. Is there anything going on here that can help us believe in McLouth’s recent tear (.333/.367/.704) in September)?

Well, one of the things that McLouth had been struggling with was the K, as Joe P noted. He featured a sub-20% strikeout rate for his two best years and then got to Atlanta with the swiss cheese bat (23.5% this year). At least with Triple-A Gwinnett, McLouth worked on that and produced a better strikeout rate (13.9%), as well he should. Of course, the rest of his line was underwhelming during his minor league stint (.234/.338/.383), but at least he worked on the strikeout rate.

McLouth’s power also waned once arriving in Atlanta. His .131 ISO this year would be a career-low, but we do know that ISO takes the longest to become reliable, that McLouth has only accrued 253 plate appearances this year, and that his ISO also took a step forward in the minor leagues. Chalk that up as two things that got better once he went down to work on his game. Not surprising, given the state of his competition, but we’d be much more worried if he didn’t show these steps forward, right?

Nate McLouth will never be one to own for batting average, and we are working with small sample sizes when we look at his September numbers, but he’s also shown that he’s done work on his power and patience, and that he can at least be the McLouth of old. Especially in OBP leagues, or in deeper leagues, he can be a late-season asset. As for his keeper prospects, the way that the Braves have treated him seems to suggest they may look for a free agent center fielder this offseason, which would make him a very risky keeper.

I’ll do one shallow league guy just because he’s heating up and I’ve seen him on some wires, but then it’s back to the deep leagues of course. This triptych of ineptitude may leave you with a bad taste in your mouth, but there’s utility here despite their warts.

Nate McLouth | OF | Braves (50% owned)
It’s a mixed bag with McLouth, who was already behind the eight ball in leagues that count batting average. Since swing rates stabilize first, we’ll take a look there – and find the numbers going in different directions. Overall, he’s swinging a lot less this year (34.7%) than in his career overall (40.1%), but it’s hard to say that’s a negative right off the bat. Swinging less could, for example, lead to more selectivity and more walks. Accordingly, McLouth is reaching less (20.4%) than he has in his career (21.2%), and walking at a career high rate (14.3%). And that’s good. What’s bad is that his contact rate is down (81.3% this year, 85.4% career). In any case, more contextual clues lead to some hope. A week ago, McLouth had been dropped to 8th in the order and wasn’t playing against lefties. Though 478 at-bats against lefties is hardly an opus, his .702 OPS against lefties is close to a disasterpiece. Count it as hope that McLouth has been moved back to leadoff against righties, and you’ll get yourself a lifetime .818 OPS hitter against that hand. As long as you have daily lineups, and can wait for righties, he’s a good pickup.

Delmon Young | OF | Twins (15% owned)
Yes, I know. Hold your nose. Young is not the dynamic star that was once prognosticated for him. He’s very flawed. He doesn’t have much power. But this isn’t to say that he hasn’t improved. In fact, his swing profile includes some improvement in virtually every category. For such a wild swinger, swinging less has to be a positive – and Young is swinging less (54.7% this year, 61.2% career). He’s reaching at a career-low rate (36.8%), and this improvement is particularly informative because it’s part of a trend. He’s improved his reach rate in every season in the bigs. The best news is that his contact rate is up big (79.9% this year, 75.3% career) at the same time. He still swings at bad pitches too often, and his power is just barely above average, but there’s a good chance that he retains the gains he’s made in the early going. Though it’s not yet significant, it’s nice to note that he’s sporting a career high in flyball rate right now, and a .290/20/10 season is not out of reach. The hardest part will be following the lineups to make sure he’s playing.

Steve Pearce | 1B | Pittsburgh (0% owned)
Is another major league team about to give up on Jeff Clement? When is a good time to cut your losses and give up on a player? Did the Pirates already give up on Pearce before Clement? These are all good questions that won’t be answered here. Instead, we’ll just report that Pearce was recalled today and is on the major league roster. Though he’s shown a platoon split in the major leagues (.920 OPS versus lefties, .607 vs righties), those have come in a mere 378 plate appearances total. The same split is not as pronounced in the minors (.929 vs lefties, .871 vs righties) and virtually disappeared in his hot 2010 start (.353/.456/.612 overall). Maybe he’ll get some starts at first base against lefties, or maybe he’ll steal some time from the scuffling Lastings Milledge. It’s worth stowing a guy with a .889 career minor league OPS in about 2000 at-bats, especially when he’s just turned 27 and has a fire under his behind.

Ownership rates courtesy Yahoo Fantasy Sports.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

We’re changing things up this week in honor of the first Minor Impacts report of the month. Today’s posting will look at a group of players that received a call-up to the Majors, or were involved in a trade, in the past two days.

Gordon Beckham: The White Sox organization has promoted a few rookies to the big league club in recent days (including LHP Wes Whisler, who could be the next Micah Owings, given his college hitting skills). Beckham, though, is the club’s top prospect and was its first-round selection from the 2008 draft. Signed as a shortstop, he showed the ability to handle third base, which encouraged the big league club to promote him to the Majors. Beckham began the 2009 season in double-A and hit .299/.366/.497 in 38 games. He then spent just six games in triple-A (.458 average) before receiving the call to the Majors. His home run power is not fully developed yet – he had just four homers in double-A, but 17 doubles – so Beckham may show below-average power for a third baseman early on in his career. He can also be a little too aggressive at the plate at times, so big-league pitchers may exploit that weakness. Long-term, though, he has solid potential as either a third baseman or a shortstop and could quickly become the face of the franchise and the team’s leader.

Andrew McCutchen: Well it’s about time. I have been calling for this promotion since the beginning of the season when McCutchen was demoted to triple-A for a second straight year. It’s a little surprising, though, that the organization chose to trade off incumbent center-fielder Nate McLouth, rather than shift him (or McCutchen) to right field. Regardless, the rookie is now where he belongs – in the Majors… even if the club somehow managed to weaken itself in the process (In classic Pittsburgh fashion, of course). McCutchen was hitting .303/.361/.493 with four home runs and 10 stolen bases in 49 games. The 22-year-old outfielder does not walk a ton, but he’s also trimmed his strikeout rate to about 11% in 2009. He has the potential to hit .300 with 10-15 home runs and 30-40 steals in a full MLB season. He also plays above-average defense in the outfield.

Tommy Hanson: Hanson is another top prospect who was fully deserving of this opportunity, which probably could (should) have come sooner. The Braves effectively released 300-winner Tom Glavine to make room for the next generation. An argument could be made for Hanson being the best pitching prospect in baseball, but his name is definitely in the Top 3-5 pitching prospects, along with southpaws David Price and Madison Bumgarner. Hanson had a breakout 2008 season and got even better in 2009 while opening the year in triple-A. Last season, the right-hander dominated in high-A ball for seven games (0.90 ERA) before receiving a promotion to double-A. There, Hanson allowed just 70 hits in 98 innings of work and struck out 114 batters. He did, though, struggle with his control to a degree and he walked 41 batters (3.77 BB/9). Hanson then pitched in the Arizona Fall League and dominated some of the best prospects in the game. This year, Hanson had a 1.49 ERA in 11 starts. He allowed 40 hits and 17 walks (2.31 BB/9) in 66.1 innings of work. He also struck out 90 hitters (12.21 K/9). Hanson’s repertoire includes a mid-90s fastball, slider, curve and changeup. With the strides he’s made in the past year, he has the potential to be a No. 1 starter.

The Nate McLouth Loot: In a surprise trade, the Pirates tossed quality outfielder Nate McLouth to the Braves for two good, but not great, prospects: outfielder Gorkys Hernandez, and LHP Jeff Locke, and one OK young MLB-ready pitcher (who was pitching at triple-A): Charlie Morton. Hernandez, who was originally acquired from Detroit (along with Jair Jurrjens) in the Edgar Renteria deal, is a speedy, toolsy outfielder. He was playing in double-A ball with mixed results. His triple-slash line looks pretty good on the batting-average side: .316/.361/.387, but 15 walks in 212 at-bats (6.6 BB%) bites into the on-base percentage. He also has not hit a home run in 2009, after hitting just five in 100 games last year in high-A ball. So, obviously, Hernandez’ game is built around speed. At this point, it does not look like he’ll get on-base enough to be an impact player at the MLB level. He’s also stolen just 10 bases in 18 attempts this season, so he needs to work on becoming a better base runner to take advantage of the speed. He stolen 54 bases in 2007, but that total dropped to 20 in 2008 (although he was caught just four times). Defensively, he’s a very good center fielder. But with McCutchen now in the Majors in center, Hernandez does not profile well at all in a corner outfield spot (and neither does McCutchen).

Locke probably has the greatest potential amongst the three players acquired from the Braves. With that said, though, he’s also still fairly raw as a 2006 second round draft pick out of a New Hampshire high school. The southpaw currently has a 5.52 ERA (but 3.64 FIP) in high-A ball. He’s allowed 47 hits in 45.2 innings of work. Locke is also struggling with his control (5.12 BB/9), although it has been a strong suit of his in the past. He’s struck out 43 batters (8.47 K/9) this year. Locke instantly becomes the best left-handed pitching prospect in the Pirates system with a low-90s fastball, good curve and developing changeup. He’s probably two years away from the Majors and a lot can go wrong with young pitching in that time frame. Locke projects to top out as a No. 3 starter in the Majors.

Morton is the only player headed to Pittsburgh that has any MLB experience. He received a desperation call to the Majors in 2008 and was hit around. He posted a 6.15 ERA and allowed 80 hits with 41 walks in 74.2 innings of work. In 2009, Morton had obviously slid down the Braves’ depth chart as he was passed over for a MLB promotion on a few occasions despite posting solid numbers. The right-hander had a 2.51 ERA and had allowed 52 hits in 64.2 innings of work. His rates were solid at 2.23 BB/9 and 7.65 K/9. Despite being a third-round pick out of a New Jersey high school in 2002, Morton has never been considered amongst the Braves’ top prospects. His fastball averages out around 90 mph and he also has a good breaking ball and a changeup that has improved over the years. He could very well end up in the Pirates’ rotation within a month, given the current state of affairs.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Jermaine Dye and trade Johnny Cueto last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

John Maine – Current owners may look at his .252 BABIP and 4.41 FIP and see a sell candidate. But Maine was terrible the first three games of the season and has quietly been a very effective pitcher since then. In his last seven games, Maine is 5-1 with a 2.36 ERA. Linear Weights shows his fastball, which was such a good pitch in both 2006 and 2007, has rebounded into positive numbers despite a slight decrease in velocity.

Jorge Cantu – After a hot start to the season, Cantu really struggled in May and now his updated ZiPS shows him falling fall short of last year’s HR and R totals. A hand injury that he refused to come out of the lineup for hurt his numbers, especially early in the month. But Cantu has hit a solid .286 over his last 14 games and he could be a great pickup if his power numbers rebound as the hand improves.

Jhonny Peralta – Here is another player whose numbers have been dragged down due to injury. After a strong first two weeks of the season, Peralta injured his left elbow. The injury sapped his power and helped his average fall below .200 in early May. But in his last 21 games, Peralta is batting .347, albeit still with no power. The most attractive thing about Peralta as a fantasy player is his 20-HR power. RoS ZiPS sees Peralta hitting 11 HR the rest of the season.

Gavin Floyd – A 17-game winner a year ago, Floyd was overvalued by many coming into the season. But it seems that he has reached the point now where he is an undervalued commodity. Floyd’s strikeout rate is up over 1.5 per nine from a year ago and his FIP is actually lower now than it was in 2008 (4.14 opposed to 4.77). But he is being hurt by baserunners, as his BB rate is up and his BABIP sits at .335 compared to a .296 lifetime mark. But in his last three outings, Floyd has allowed just seven walks in 23 IP. Improved control along with a little better luck on balls in play could add up to a big improvement in Floyd’s numbers.

Nolan Reimold – The Baltimore rookie has provided some nice power, with five home runs in his first 17 games. While that pace may not be sustainable, the power is not a huge surprise, as Reimold hit 25 HR last year in Double-A. Reimold has made good contact since returning from a strained oblique in 2007. He will not hurt you in average and could be a cheap source of power as he is owned in only 5.1 percent of ESPN leagues.

Trade

Nate McLouth – An All-Star in 2008, McLouth came into the season with an ADP of 59 as owners anticipated another 25-25 season and hoped for 30-30. So far, McLouth has been hitting for power but he has been disappointing in the other categories. He looks like a nice acquisition target, as his BABIP is a dismal .254 so far. But his updated ZiPS shows him hitting just .256 with 22 HR and 20 SB. McLouth’s first half of 2008, when he had 19 HR and a .542 SLG, is looking like a career outlier. His SLG was .459 in 2007, .426 in the second half of 2008 and is .451 this season.

Kevin Millwood – He is in the top 10 in the American League with a 3.23 ERA but that comes along with a 5.05 FIP. His .256 BABIP is 50 points below his career average and his 83.9 percent strand rate is unlikely to last. Adding to the worries is his K/9, which sits at 4.96, down from 6.67 last year and his career average of 7.09.

Raul Ibanez – An extremely reliable fantasy performer the past seven seasons, Ibanez is off to a fantastic start. CBS Sports lists him as the fifth-best fantasy player so far while RotoTimes has him at number four. If you can sell high, now would be the time. Ibanez is just not this good and he has absolutely feasted on the pitching of the last-place Nationals. Due to a quirk of the schedule, Ibanez and the Phillies have played 12 games versus Washington and no more than six against anyone else. In those 12 games versus the Nationals and their MLB-worst 6.16 R/G staff, Ibanez is hitting .440 with 6 HR, 18 RBI and 15 R. His play against Washington has raised his AVG alone 23 points. Ibanez won’t see that pitching staff again until September 8th.

Doug Davis – He has only posted two wins but has been a strong contributor in the other three SP categories. But a 4.78 FIP suggests Davis has been more than a little lucky with his 3.65 ERA. After posting a 2.91 ERA and a 1.176 WHIP in April, Davis had a 4.37 ERA and a 1.371 WHIP in May.

Mark DeRosa – The Indians are allegedly shopping DeRosa and so should you. Since he qualifies at three positions, DeRosa can still be a useful fantasy player and should have trade value. The updated ZiPS shows him with numbers that come close to his 2008 ones, but that seems overly optimistic. DeRosa did so much of his damage during his career year last year at Wrigley Field, where he batted .316/.404/.514. His road numbers last year of .254/.347/.448 look remarkably like what he has posted so far in 2009.

Coming up through the minor league farm system, Pirates outfielder Nate McLouth seemed to fit the dreaded “fourth outfielder” archetype very well. A 25th-round selection in the 2000 amateur entry draft whom the Bucs managed to pry away from a Michigan scholarship, McLouth was viewed as possessing a good (but not great) bat and solid (but not center-field worthy) range. The main complaint about Nate was his power. (Generously) Listed at 5-11, 180 pounds, McLouth did not figure to have the pop to support his playing every day in a corner outfield spot.

Upon reaching AAA Indianapolis in 2005, McLouth appeared to affirm those extra outfielder predictions by batting .297/.364/.401. Nate showed a line-drive bat and excellent base running skills (34 SB, 8 CS) that figured to make him a well-rounded bench player, but the power was lacking (.104 ISO). McLouth got the call up to Pittsburgh late in the 2005 season and actually matched his AAA home run total (5) in just 120 PA with the Pirates, batting .257/.305/.450.

In 2006, Nate essentially filled that fourth outfielder role and had a difficult season, posting a .233/.293/.385 line in 297 PA. His walk rate dipped to 6.3% and his strikeout rate was rather high (21.9%), a surprising development for a guy who whiffed less than 14% of the time at the minor league level. Perhaps he was trying too hard to play the power-hitter’s game: he posted a decent .152 ISO, but it may have come at the expense of some hard swings and misses.

A funny thing happened in 2007. After once again filling the fourth outfielder role earlier in the season, McLouth was given a chance to play on a regular basis in August and September, and he exceeded most anyone’s expectations:

2007: 382 PA, .258/.351/.459, 10.6BB%, 23.4K%, .201 ISO, 16.4 LD%, .301 BABIP

A guy who barely managed a .100 ISO in the International League, McLouth posted an ISO exceeding .200 in ’07. His walk rate also improved, though his K rate crept a little bit higher. He was slightly lucky on balls put in play (his BABIP should have been about .284), but that’s not a huge difference. McLouth’s secondary skills were developing more than anyone had imagined, and he was just about the best base stealer in the game to boot (22 SB, 1 CS).

In spring training 2008, McLouth beat out Nyjer Morgan for the starting job in center field. Nate was a full-time player for the first time in his career, and he made the most of the opportunity:

2008: 685 PA, .276/.356/.497, 9.8BB%, 15.6K%, .221 ISO, 18.5 LD%, .291 BABIP

Nate’s 2.30 WPA/LI ranked 4th among center fielders and 17th among all outfielders, ahead of names such as Curtis Granderson and Vladimir Guerrero. His walk rate remained steady, and he significantly reduced his strikeout rate as well. McLouth’s contact percentages were 85.21% and 83.82% in 2006 and 2007, respectively, but he upped that number to 88.36% this past year. His ISO climbed to .221, which also ranked him ahead of Vlad and Granderson as well as Matt Holliday. Continuing his trend of stellar base running, Nate swiped 23 bases in 26 attempts. With 26 bombs and 23 steals, McLouth turned in a 20/20 season.

Given the opportunity to play on a regular basis and disprove his fourth outfielder status by new Pirates management, Nate McLouth turned in one of the better campaigns among all outfielders in 2008. While his Gold Glove Award was pretty dubious (John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system had him at -40 plays, 35th among CF’s) and he should likely defer center field to rangy prospect Andrew McCutchen, Nate has developed better power than anyone could have anticipated, given his minor league track record.

With two straight years of .200+ ISO’s, a solid walk rate, a reduced K rate and no fluky BABIP, it seems reasonable to think that he can retain this level of offensive performance going forward. Add in his nifty, high-percentage base stealing (he’s now 57 for 62 in the majors, or 91.9%) and you’re looking at a fantasy asset. Heading into his peak years (he just turned 27), McLouth has developed enough offensive ability that he could still be valuable as an everyday player in a corner outfield spot. Who would have thought that when he was slugging .401 in AAA?