Archive for Milwaukee Brewers

If there’s one thing I truly excel at — and that’s a pretty big “if” — it’s being way, way too early when deeming players ready for fantasy relevance. For a perfect example, I’d like to present as evidence the fact that I wrote this glowing piece on Jesus Aguilar over four years ago, back in April of 2014. Over the next three seasons, Aguilar picked up a whopping 64 total plate appearances in the majors, hitting .172/.234/.190 in this extremely limited sample.

Last season, Aguilar finally got a chance to show what he could do at the game’s highest level. While he hit quite well — registering a triple slash of .265/.331/.505 with 16 home runs — his playing time was still limited by a combination of the Brewers’ organizational depth and his own substandard defensive skills, as he picked up just 311 PA in 113 games. Eric Thames started 103 games at first base for the Brew Crew last year, leaving Aguilar to pick up the scraps where he could — he got 53 starts at 1B, with the rest of his playing time coming as a pinch hitter, or as a designated hitter in American League parks.

Coming into 2018, it looked like Aguilar’s path to playing time was as unclear as ever. Milwaukee’s outfield was so stacked that it appeared their first-base playing time would be split between Thames and Ryan Braun, leaving Aguilar as the odd man out again. However, when Thames went down with a torn thumb ligament in late April, Aguilar took full advantage of the chance to play nearly every day.

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This offseason, I decided to roll out this series as an extension of my own fantasy draft prep. By sifting through National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) draft data, I’ve gone position by position through average draft position (ADP) info to identify players who I believe my fellow fantasy owners are overrating or underrating. By doing so, I’m able to better identify potential sleepers, and get an idea for what price I’ll pay for them. So far, I’ve written posts on third basemen, shortstops and second basemen, and today I’ll take a stab at first base.

As you might have guessed from reading the headline above this article, today’s comparison involves Rockies rookie Ryan McMahon and Brewers veteran Eric Thames. I’ll lead off by saying that this one boggles my mind more than any of the other underrated/overrated pieces I’ve written this offseason.

Let’s take a quick look at where these two are being drafted:

Essentially, Thames is a 16th-round pick in 12-team standard leagues, and McMahon is a 30th rounder — or in other words, he’s basically being drafted as an NL-only guy. I wondered if these numbers might be changing as we get closer to the season, so I took a look at Yahoo, which has only even had their fantasy baseball site up for a little over week. However, it’s the same story there, where Thames is 86% owned, compared to just 9% for McMahon. My goal for today is to help close that gap.

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My intrigue with Jimmy Nelson began over two years ago, when I first saw him pitch in Triple-A. Since then, the now-26-year-old has only gotten more interesting, as he’s made several significant adjustments in his quest to stick as a quality major-league starter. Back in May 2014, Nelson’s repertoire focused on the combination of his mid-90’s four-seam fastball and mid-80’s slider, with work-in-progress versions of a sinker and changeup. His delivery — especially his release point — was far from consistent, causing his command to be an irregular guest.

Of course, ironing out problems like this is what the term ‘player development’ is all about. In David Laurila’s interview with Nelson from last August, Nelson discusses smoothing out his delivery:

“It was a mechanical change. Instead of going over my head with my hands to start my delivery, now I just keep them in front and drop them down. That allows me to be more consistent and repeatable, and a lot more relaxed.”

Nelson’s repertoire and pitch usage saw even more adjustments over the last couple years than his mechanics. By the time he got the call to the majors in mid-July 2014, he was throwing more sinkers than four-seamers, a trend that continues to this day. Through his first 308 major-league innings, he’s throwing his sinker at a 40.4% rate, compared to 25.1% for the four-seamer.

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A look at the Rotographs preseason positional rankings makes Adam Lind look like a moderate bargain. Our experts had him as the No. 21 first baseman, and he finished 2015 at No. 14. However, our experts were much higher on Lind than most fantasy players.

Lind was — rather astonishingly — the No. 40 1B selected in Yahoo drafts in 2015. He was drafted in 90 percent of leagues, but his average draft position made him an absolute steal in the 22nd round. He outperformed his 242.7 ADP in dramatic fashion, finishing the season as fantasy baseball’s No. 109 overall player.

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The Milwaukee Brewers return an offense that scored the third-most runs in Major League Baseball. Their team .329 wOBA ranked second in the National League behind the Colorado Rockies, their 202 home runs topped in the NL, and their 158 stolen bases were the best in baseball last season.

Combine that prolific offense with minimal personnel turnover, and it’s not difficult to see why the Brewers have very few positional battles in camp this spring. That extends to the infield, which has entrenched starters around the diamond. A preseason injury to Corey Hart throws a wrench into the depth chart to begin the year, but he’s only expected to miss approximately a month. After his return, the Brewers will feature the same infield they trotted out throughout the final two months last season.

Missing Opening Day is nothing new for Corey Hart, who will miss the start of the season for the third time in the past four years. His absence creates a void at first base for the Brewers for the first month, and perhaps longer. The organization wants to focus on internal options this spring, and the leading candidates for playing time at first base with Hart on the DL appear to be veteran Alex Gonzalez and 26-year-old Taylor Green.

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When Mat Gamel started making his way through the Milwaukee Brewers system beginning in 2006, the team envisioned him as their third baseman of the future.  While he continued to work on some defensive shortcomings, he was exhibiting exceptional power, good plate discipline and a knack for getting on base at a rate well above average.  When he finally got the call in May of 2009, he struggled at the plate.  Flashes of power, yes.  Solid walk rate, yes.  But far too many strikeouts.  He landed back in Triple-A and it all started to go downhill from there as injuries began to derail his career and the door opened up for other players like Casey McGehee to step in.

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When Jonathan Lucroy singled in the 7th inning of Sunday’s NLCS to plate an insurance run for the Brewers, I couldn’t help but think about what a nice surprise he was this year and the prospects of going back after him in next year’s draft.  With a .265-12-59 batting line, no one would dare protect him in a keeper league despite an obvious low cost.  However, in deeper fantasy leagues or leagues that require you to start two catchers, he could end up one of those staples; a guy you quietly draft every year and get solid, not phenomenal but solid, production from without concern.

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