Archive for Milton Bradley

When the Seattle Mariners acquired Milton Bradley from the Chicago Cubs for RHP Carlos Silva over the winter, most thought the M’s had stolen a high-OBP hitter with decent pop for a washed up starter with a bum shoulder. Yet, it’s Bradley who’s looking like the scrub so far — while a back-from-the-dead Silva has racked up 1.6 WAR, Milton is mired in a deep offensive funk and has -0.2 WAR in 2010.

No one expected Bradley the replicate his feats of strength over the 2007 and 2008 seasons, when he posted a .417 wOBA and a park-and-league-adjusted wOBA 58 percent better than average (158 wRC+). But both CHONE and ZiPS figured he’d top his 2009 numbers produced as a Cub (.257/.378/.397, .345 wOBA, 108 wRC+). CHONE thought he’d bat .262/.368/.427, upping his wOBA to .353 and his wRC+ to 117. ZiPS projected a .254/.371/.421 line, with a .355 wOBA and a 118 wRC+.

Suffice it to say, Bradley’s bat is falling well short of those expectations. In 205 plate appearances, the switch-hitter has a feeble .207/.299/.346 triple-slash and a .291 wOBA. Safeco Field saps offense, suppressing runs by six percent and homers by seven percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009 (per the Bill James Handbook). But even so, Bradley’s offensive has been, well, offensive — his wRC+ is 80.

The first thing most will point to regarding the 32-year-old’s numbers is his .263 BABIP. And he has been unlucky to an extent — Bradley’s expected BABIP is .303. That’s still below his .319 career BABIP, as well as his BABIP projections from CHONE (.318) and ZiPS (.309).

Why’s that? Bradley’s batted ball distribution is different this season, and the change has not been positive. He’s hitting fewer ground balls and more fly balls than usual, with a 35.5 GB% (42.9 GB% from 2007-2009) and a 45.5 FB% (35.7 FB% from ’07 to ’09). Those extra fly balls are weakly hit, as Bradley’s infield/fly ball rate has spiked to 18.2% (8.4 IF/FB% from ’07 to ’09, 7-8% MLB average). Infield flies are basically automatic outs, so the increase in pop ups helps explain the low BABIP.

In addition to hitting the ball up the elevator shaft often, Bradley’s not controlling the strike zone quite as well as he usually does. While still patient, he’s chasing more pitches out of the strike zone (relative to the MLB average):

The extra swings on off-the-plate pitches contribute to his lower-than-projected walk rate of 10.2% (12.8 BB% from CHONE, 14.5 BB% from ZiPS).

On pitches within the zone, Bradley’s coming up empty at the highest rate of his career. His Z-Contact% is 81.4. For reference, his Z-Contact over the 2007-2009 seasons was 82.6%, and the MLB average is about 88%. His overall contact rate is 73.8% (75.8% from ’07 to ’09, 81% MLB average). In addition to making less contact, Milton’s getting caught looking often. According to StatCorner, Bradley’s percentage of PA ending in a called strikeout is 9.3% this season, while the MLB average is 4.5% and his 2007-2009 rate was in the six percent range. Not surprisingly, his K rate is a career-high 31.3%. Whiffs aren’t the end of the world for a hitter who works deep counts and makes things happen when he does put the ball in play, but it’s been a while since Bradley displayed more than middling power — his ISO in 678 PA since the beginning of 2009 is .140.

Bradley should perform better in the months to come, particularly if he shows his trademark plate discipline and limits the pop ups. ZiPS projects a .240/.352/.390 line, with a .338 wOBA. It’s hard to be overly enthusiastic, though. Beside the ever-present injury risk associated with him, Bradley no longer comes with the promise of elite secondary skills — he’s a singles-and-doubles hitter in a park that smiles upon pitchers.

With all the hubub surrounding two nice prospects getting their first licks in the major leagues, let’s not neglect the waiver wire. We all need a little waiver love, and almost none of us have a certain Nationals pitcher on our wire. Instead, let’s look at a couple players that should almost definitely be on your waiver wire today.

Jason Motte, St. Louis (2%)
Okay, maybe if your league counts holds, Motte won’t be available. Then again, he only has four holds on the season, and he probably won’t be closing any time soon unless Ryan Franklin goes down with a (possibly beard-related?) injury. But it’s worth pointing out that Motte has finally harnessed some of his raw power and is pitching the best ball of his career. Coming up through the system, we all knew this converted catcher had gas (95.9 MPH fastball career), but there were questions about his secondary stuff. Questions like: Does he even have another pitch? Well, he’s still throwing the fastball over 70% of the time, so he does like to bring the heat. And he’s gone into extended periods of focusing on the secondary stuff and then forgetting about it. But he’s finally throwing the curveball regularly (10.2% this year), and though linear weights don’t love the pitch yet (-1.1 runs this year), obviously something is working in the overall package. On June 6th, he gave his first run in 9 and 2/3 innings, and during that ten-game stretch, he had a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It’s that nice walk rate (2.31), combined with his booming fastball and developing curve, that makes him an interesting ratios and strikeouts reliever on teams in deeper leagues. Especially if you’re over your innings pace already.

Milton Bradley, Seattle (4% owned)
Yeah, I know. Groan. He’s struggling through a .274 wOBA, 67 wRC+ kind of season. He’s striking out at a career-worst rate (31.4%) and walking at a career-low rate (7.8%). His ISO is his worst since he was in Montreal, and we can’t even blame his BABIP (.283) much. He’s seeing a sports psychologist, and he’s a risk to leave the team at any time. In some ways, there couldn’t be a worse candidate for your fantasy team. All of that is true, and there is very little silver lining. One okay factor is that he still has an average-ish line drive rate (18.3%), and another is that at 32 years old and of above-average athleticism, he’s not so old that we would expect a drop off this precipitous. But the final, most important piece of information regarding Bradley is this: He’s playing. Every day. Even in an 18-team, 5-OF league, all 90 starting outfielders in baseball are relevant, and leagues come deeper than this. Put him on your bench if you can because warm, starting, bodies are valuable if your league is deep enough. Then all you can do is hope he recovers some of his old form. (Hey, the psychologist thing really “worked” for John Smoltz.)

The Seattle Mariners and Chicago Cubs swapped undesired contracts on Friday, as the M’s acquired OF/DH Milton Bradley for RHP Carlos Silva. Bradley is owed a combined $21M for the 2010-2011 seasons, while Silva is set to rake in $25M ($11.5M each in 2010 and 2011, plus a $2M buyout on a $12M mutual option for 2012). Apparently, Seattle will kick in $9M, saving Chicago $5M in the transaction.

(salary figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.)

Silva (he of a career 4.48 xFIP and a recent rotator cuff injury) isn’t of much concern to fantasy owners. But what’s left of Milton Bradley’s game? Let’s try to find out.

Bradley, of course, had a turbulent tenure on the North Side. He didn’t perform up to expectations in 2009, though he’s probably not responsible for global warming, swine flu and the financial collapse, as some Chicago columnists would have you believe.

The switch-hitter has long been a quality offensive player. His career wRC+ is 120, meaning Bradley’s wOBA in the majors is 20 percent better than average, once we account for park and league factors. Milton was an absolute machine in 2007 and 2008, posting wRC+ figures of 155 and 160, respectively. 2008 was the best year of his career, as Bradley set personal bests in home runs (22), Isolated Power (.242) and walk rate (16.2%). It was also just the second time in his career that he topped the 500 PA mark.

While Bradley annihilated pitchers in Arlington, we shouldn’t have expected a repeat of his monstrous ’08 campaign. His BABIP was an absurd .396, highest among all hitters. Milton’s Expected BABIP, by contrast, was .334. Bradley’s 2007-2008 power outburst was also well above his established level: his combined ISO over those two seasons was .241, compared to .170 from 2004-2006.

In a “down” 2009 season, Bradley was still above average with the bat (108 wRC+). He remained extremely patient at the plate (14.4 BB%). His pop, however, got lost at the airport terminal:

Milton’s ISO dipped to .140, his lowest mark since a 2001 season split between Les Expos and the Indians. During his 2007-2008 power surge, Bradley hit ground balls 40.4% of the time, while putting the ball in the air 37 percent. In ’09, his groundball rate rose to about 47 percent, while his fly ball rate fell to 33.3 percent.

During his banner ’08 season, Bradley had a humongous batting average on ground balls (remember that MLB-leading BABIP?) In ’09, not so much:

Bradley’s Batting Average on Ground Balls

2008: .323 BAVG (.242 AL AVG)
2009: .200 BAVG (.240 AL AVG)
Bradley’s Career Average: .228

Though Bradley was able-bodied enough to take 473 trips to the plate in 2009, he was rarely healthy. He battled quad, groin, hamstring, hip and knee ailments. Milton’s propensity to get dinged up was exacerbated by the lack of the DH. All of those bumps and bruises have taken a toll on Bradley’s wheels:

Bradley’s Speed Score, 2005-2009
2005: 5.1
2006: 4.9
2007: 4.5
2008: 3.2
2009: 2.6

Back in the AL, Bradley will likely patrol left field, while getting to rest his achy knees at least occasionally at DH. What can we expect out of Milton in 2010? CHONE projects a .369 wOBA, while Bill James forecasts a .365 wOBA. Thus far, the Fans call for a .373 wOBA.

Granted, Safeco Field is not a hitter’s haven by any means. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Safeco depressed run scoring by 6 percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2007-2009. He’s not going to a great environment to get his power stroke back (95 HR park factor for lefty batters, 91 for righty hitters).

Still, Bradley (32 in April) has superb on-base skills. With a mild bounce back in the power category (not to his ’07-08 glory days, but around his career .172 ISO), he could be a pretty nice pickup for the Mariners and fantasy players.

Stock Up

Brett Anderson, Athletics

Oakland’s 21 year-old rookie was plenty good during the first half of the 2009 season, but he has ascended into elite territory since the Midsummer Classic:

1st Half: 87.1 IP, 6.6 K/9, 2.78 BB/9
2nd Half: 77.1 IP, 8.7 K/9, 2.21 BB/9

Anderson’s uptick in performance coincided with an increase in velocity:

Anderson’s fastball and slider velocity, by month:

April: 91 MPH for the fastball, 82.7 MPH for the slider
May: 91.4, 82.4
June 92.6, 83.8
July: 93.6, 85
August: 93, 84.2
September: 93.4, 84.2

Anderson’s souped-up fastball hasn’t been dominant (-0.61 runs/100 pitches for the year), but that mid-80’s slider has been deadly (+2.79 runs/100, best in the majors). What makes the pitch so wicked? It may be the unusual depth and bite on the offering. Anderson’s slider drops in the zone 3.4 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin. By comparison, the average lefty slider has +1.7 inches of vertical movement (rising 1.7 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin).

Howie Kendrick, Angels

Optioned to AAA Salt Lake in June, Kendrick has returned to the majors with a vengeance. His second-half surge (.385/.409/.594 in 149 PA) owes something to an obscene .430 BABIP, but Howie (or is it Howard?) is hammering the ball with a .209 ISO since the break. Overall, Kendrick has a .344 wOBA and a .153 ISO, both career bests. He’s still a free swinger who rarely draws a free pass (4.9 BB%), but the former top prospect has gradually tightened his zone while making more contact:

2007: 40.1 O-Swing%, 75.6 Contact%
2008: 36.6 O-Swing%, 76.2 Contact%
2009: 32.4 O-Swing%, 80.3 Contact%

(the MLB averages are 25% and 81%, respectively)

Scott Feldman, Rangers

With 5.3 K/9 and 2.85 BB/9, Feldman has been more solid rotation cog (4.59 Expected Fielding Independent ERA) than the breakout ace that his ERA (3.62) or win total (17) would suggest. However, the 26 year-old has undergone one drastic transformation over the past few seasons.

Prior to the 2008 season, Feldman was essentially a ROOGY (Right-Handed One Out Guy), a somewhat pejorative term used to describe righty relievers who get pummeled by southpaw batters. His side-arm motion generated lots of groundballs (58 GB% from 2005-2007), but his opportunities against opposite-handed batters were limited.

He switched release points and jobs in ’08, moving into the rotation. Feldman’s peripherals (4.4 K/9, 3.33 BB/9, 5.25 XFIP) weren’t all that special. In 2009, Feldman has changed his pitching approach. He tossed a fastball 63.5% of the time in ’08, but he has thrown a heater just 44.9% this season.

In place of the conventional fastball, Feldman is relying heavily upon a 90 MPH cutter (thrown 33% of the time). The pitch has been extremely effective, with a value of +2.94 runs per 100 pitches. That figure may be inflated a little by Feldman’s good fortune of balls put in play (the run values are results-based, so a low BABIP or HR/FB rate could influence the pitch values), but that cutter has helped him battle southpaws. Lefties lashed Scott for a .846 OPS in 2008 (17 percent worse than the league average), but just a .623 OPS in 2009 (38 percent better than the league average).

Felipe Lopez, Brewers

Coming off of a pair of tepid seasons at the plate (.295 wOBA in 2007, .320 in 2008), Lopez had to settle for a 1-year, $3.5M deal with the Diamondbacks over the winter. Without question, Felipe was one of the best bargains on the free agent market, accumulating 4.6 WAR between the D-Backs and the Brewers. That production is worth roughly $20-$21M.

Lopez has been fortunate, with a .364 BABIP this year. According to this expected BABIP calculator, the switch-hitter should have a BABIP around .333. That would make his .312/.382/.433 line something closer to .281/.351/.402. That still equates to a wOBA of about .345, besting his work during a nomadic stretch that saw Lopez roam through Cincinnati, Washington and St. Louis. Lopez’s walk rate this season is up to 10.1% (8.1 and 8.2% in ’07 and ’08).

Robinson Tejeda, Royals

When your club can’t see first place with the aid of the Keck Telescopes, September baseball can be a drag. But there is one perk associated with being woefully out of contention: the chance to evaluate players in expanded roles.

Case in point: Robinson Tejeda. For most of his pro career, Tejeda has thrown really, really hard (94.3 MPH in 2009) toward the general vicinity of home plate. However, the former Ranger and Phillie has shown about as much control as Dayton Moore near an expensive, low-OBP position player (5.11 BB/9 career).

So far, Tejeda has taken to the rotation better than expected. In four starts spanning 22.1 innings, Robinson has posted a 24/10 K/BB ratio, with a microscopic 0.81 ERA. The 27 year-old has, of course, been exceptionally lucky on balls in play (.170 BABIP as a starter).

But, Tejeda has retained his velocity battling lineups multiple times (94.5 MPH), while garnering plenty of outside swings (33.3%, 25% MLB average) and posting a low contact rate (73.7%, 81% MLB average). It’s just four starts, so no conclusions can really be drawn. Still, Tejeda at least gives Royals fans something to focus on while waiting for Billy Butler‘s next AB or Zack Greinke’s next start.

Stock Down

Freddy Sanchez, Giants

The Pirates received plenty of backlash from fans and the local press for trading Sanchez, a respected community member and a decent second baseman when healthy, to the Giants this past summer. That venom aimed at the organization didn’t take into account that the 31 year-old might just be breaking down physically.

Courtesy of Sportsnet, here’s Sanchez’s sizeable list of ailments since the beginning of the 2007 season:

Sep 7, 2009: Missed 19 games (left shoulder injury).
Aug 25, 2009: Left shoulder injury, 15-day DL.
Aug 18, 2009: Left shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Aug 2, 2009: Missed 5 games (sore left knee).
Jul 27, 2009: Sore left knee, day-to-day.
Jul 10, 2009: Missed 6 games (back injury).
Jul 3, 2009: Back injury, day-to-day.
Sep 13, 2008: Missed 1 game (eye injury).
Sep 12, 2008: Eye injury, day-to-day.
Aug 3, 2008: Missed 5 games (back spasms).
Jul 28, 2008: Back spasms, day-to-day.
Apr 14, 2008: Missed 1 game (right shoulder injury).
Apr 13, 2008: Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Apr 5, 2008: Missed 1 game (right shoulder injury).
Apr 4, 2008: Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Oct 1, 2007: Missed the last 5 games of the regular season (shoulder injury).
Sep 26, 2007: Shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Jun 19, 2007: Missed 3 games (flu).
Jun 15, 2007: Flu, day-to-day.
Apr 26, 2007: Missed 1 game (eye injury).
Apr 25, 2007: Eye injury, day-to-day.
Apr 18, 2007: Missed 1 game (left wrist injury).
Apr 17, 2007: Left wrist injury, day-to-day.
Apr 7, 2007: Missed 5 games (sprained knee).
Mar 31, 2007: Sprained knee, 15-day DL.

Shoulder and knee maladies have proven especially troublesome. Sanchez is largely the same aggressive, high-contact hitter with just a smidge of extra-base power. However, he has posted the highest K rate of his career (16.6 K%), and his percentage of contact within the strike zone (89.7 percent) is below the 92-96% range he hovered around from 2005-2008 (88% MLB average).

Joba Chamberlain, Yankees

Chamberlain’s first year as a full-time starter has not gone as smoothly as Yankee fans or fantasy owners would have liked, as the former Cornhusker has posted a mediocre 4.70 XFIP in 146.2 IP. The big righty, who turns 23 tomorrow, has missed a decent number of bats (7.61 K/9). However, his control has lagged behind.

Joba has posted a paltry 54.9 First-Pitch Strike%, compared to the 58% major league average. His hard mid-80’s slider (+0.98 runs/100) and high-70’s curve (+0.3 runs/100) have fooled hitters, but Chamberlain’s 92.5 MPH gas has often been torched (-1.15 runs/100).

The 6-2, 230 pounder’s struggles will likely spur more unwarranted discussion of his long-term role, but it’s important to keep in mind that Chamberlain is still very young and is surely capable of better in the rotation in the years to come. It’s extremely difficult to conjure up an argument for pushing him to the ‘pen.

Nick Markakis, Orioles

The 25 year-old Markakis remains a valuable commodity, but it’s hard not to be let down by his 2009 campaign. Over his first three seasons in the majors, Markakis made steady offensive improvement:

2006: 8.1 BB%, .346 wOBA
2007: 8.7 BB%, .366 wOBA
2008: 14.3 BB%, .389 wOBA

The lefty batter was an on-base fiend last year, swinging at just 18 percent of pitches thrown out of the strike zone. This year, Markakis has chased 23.4% of pitches off the dish. His walk rate has nearly been cut in half (7.5 BB%), with his wOBA falling back down to his rookie level (.345 wOBA). After posting ISO’s of .185 in each of 2007 and 2008, Markakis has compiled a .156 mark this year (again, right around his rookie production of .157).

Fausto Carmona, Indians

In late May, we took a gander at the apocalyptic path Carmona’s career has taken since his banner 2007 season. He pitched 215 frames, posted a sub-four FIP and generated a huge number of worm-burners (64.3 GB%) with his low-to-mid-90’s sinker.

Since that massive increase in workload (he pitched 74.2 major league innings in 2006), Carmona has been a train wreck. He walked 5.22 batters per nine innings in 2008, and has actually shown slightly worse control in 2009 (5.37 BB/9). While still a groundball pitcher, Carmona isn’t posting the same kind of extreme rates (54.2 GB% in 2009). His sinker has gone from a plus pitch to possibly the worst in the big leagues:

Carmona’s runs/100 pitches value with his sinker:

2007: +0.57
2008: -0.15
2009: -2.26

Suffice it to say, that’s a problem when Fausto still tosses a sinker nearly three-quarters of the time (73% in 2009). Carmona’s percentage of pitches in the strike zone has fallen from 51.4% in 2007 to a lousy 44.9% in 2009 (49-50% MLB average). It’s sad to say, but the 25 year-old has turned into the A.L.’s answer to Daniel Cabrera.

Milton Bradley, Cubs

Though some Chicago columnists may claim otherwise, Bradley probably isn’t responsible for global warming, the collapse of Lehman Brothers and stalled health care legislation. That being said, the 31 year-old switch-hitter’s first year in the Friendly Confines has been anything but amicable. The Cubs suspended Bradley for the rest of the 2009 season, though the MLBPA is considering filing a grievance.

If Milton has indeed played his final game this season, he ends up with a disappointing .345 wOBA that pales in comparison to his .405 mark in 2007 and .423 figure in 2008. Bradley was still extremely patient (14.4 BB%), but his pop was nowhere to be found. His ISO, .239 in ’07 and .242 in ’08, plunged to .140 with the Cubs.

Bradley didn’t hit the DL, but he missed time with groin, calf and knee problems. He continued to crush fastballs (+1.21 runs/100) and sliders (+0.85), but he was downright Pedro Cerrano-like against curveballs (-2.84 runs/100) and changeups (-0.85). He’s owed $9M in 2010 and $12M in 2011.

It is never too late to improve your team! Here are five players available on the waiver wire under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your squad for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Mike MacDougal (35%) – Released by the White Sox after five games and a 12.46 ERA, MacDougal has found new life with the Nationals and has ascended to the closer role. Ordinarily, this is not someone we would focus on, as he has a 4.48 FIP with Washington, compared to a 1.93 ERA, along with below-average K numbers. But with less than a month remaining in the season and the chance to pick up saves, he becomes an attractive add.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Homer Bailey (28%) – Coming off back-to-back starts in which he has allowed just one run in 15 innings, Bailey could still yet turn into the pitcher we have been waiting for the past few years. After averaging in the low 90s in his first two years in the majors, Bailey checks in this year at 94.5 and he was clocked at 98 in his August 23rd start.

Under 20 Percent Owned

Sean West (15%) – Has hurled a Quality Start in three of his last four outings, missing only in the second of back-to-back starts against the Astros. He tied a season high with 7 Ks in his last outing. West is 5-2 with a 3.26 ERA in nine home games this season.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Drew Stubbs (5%) – After starting the season 2-17, Stubbs has put up a .295-2-5-8-3 line in his last nine games. Stubbs is a “tools” guy, so he offers the chance for HR and SB for the final month of the season. His AVG may be his weakest tool, but that should not hurt fantasy teams too much this late in the season.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Milton Bradley (53%) – Yes, he has some baggage. But he is also a productive hitter when in the lineup, which should be all that matters as you chase a money spot in your league. In his last 35 games, Bradley has a .319-5-15-27-2 line. And unlike last year, Bradley is doing it in 2009 with sustainable numbers in a .319 BABIP and a 12.9% HR/FB rate.

After a week of inactivity, the free agent dominoes appear to be falling. On the heels of the Tampa Bay Rays inking Pat Burrell to a team-friendly deal, Milton Bradley has come to terms with the Chicago Cubs on a three-year, $30 million pact. The erstwhile Expo, Indian, Dodger, Athletic, Padre and Ranger will now patrol right field for the Cubbies.

Turning 31 in April, Bradley is coming off of a monstrous offensive campaign in 2008. In 510 PA, the switch-hitter pummeled opposing pitchers to the tune of a .321/.436/.563 line, with a .423 wOBA that ranked fourth among all hitters. Only Albert Pujols, Chipper Jones and Manny Ramirez provided more offensive value to their respective ballclubs. Despite the significant penalty incurred by designated hitters from position adjustments (-17.5 runs per 162 games), Bradley was worth 3.7 wins last season. That level of performance was worth nearly $17 million to the Rangers.

While Milton is a truly outstanding hitter who draws walks by the bushel and hits for power, we should expect some degree of regression from his lethal ’08 season- his .396 BABIP is not sustainable. Marcel projects Bradley to post a .384 wOBA in 479 PA in 2009. If Bradley were to meet that reasonable forecast, he would be worth a little more than 20 runs above average with the stick.

Of course, the equation is not that simple. With Bradley shifting back to the NL, he must now dust off his glove and play a position on a daily basis. Bradley has endured more than his fair share of injuries over the years, and manning the outfield only figures to exacerbate his lack of durability. Over the 2006 and 2007 seasons, he hit the DL for a sprained right knee, a strained left shoulder, a strained left hamstring (twice), a right calf strain and a strained oblique muscle. That doesn’t include the bizarre torn ACL that Bradley suffered disputing a call, either. He has topped the 500 PA mark just twice in his career: as a DH with the Rangers last season and with the Dodgers back in 2004.

Given Bradley’s extensive history of injury and the uncertainty surrounding his ability to play the outfield without triggering health problems, just what sort of deal did the North Siders get? Will Bradley’s powerful bat prove to be a bargain, or will Chicago develop buyer’s remorse?

For the purposes of this exercise, let’s assume that Bradley averages about 400 PA and 100 games per season. Those are admittedly arbitrary numbers that could be argued, but it’s an attempt to account for the likelihood that Bradley will be unavailable for a decent chunk of time. If Bradley meets his Marcel projection of a .384 wOBA, he’d be worth about 17 runs above average offensively in 400 PA.

Calculating Milton’s defensive value is much less straightforward. He has been an above-average defender in the past, and has performed well in limited opportunities over the past two seasons. Let’s call Bradley a +5 run fielder. Pro-rating the positional adjustment (-7.5 runs per 162 games for corner outfielders) and replacement level (+20 runs per 600 PA), Bradley projects to be worth about 31 runs above replacement, or 3.1 WAR.

It has become increasingly obvious that this is very much a buyer’s market for clubs, so let’s keep last year’s $4.5 million per WAR figure. Using that, Bradley projects to be worth about $14 million on a one-year deal. Even accounting for the likelihood that Bradley hits the shelf with an ailment or two, he projects to be worth considerably more than his salary for the 2009 season.

Accounting for a 10% discount rate for a longer deal (risk-averse players tend to sacrifice a little coin to risk-neutral clubs in long-term pacts), a fair three-year deal for Bradley would come out to about $37.8 million. If Milton can stay on the field a little less than two-thirds of the time with the Cubs, his performance should outpace his salary.

A three-year deal for a player with a DL record similar in length to “War and Peace” is risky. But, the Cubs appear to have accounted for the probability of Bradley missing significant time, and seemingly got his premium bat at something of a discount. There’s no reason to expect Bradley to play anything resembling a full season’s worth of games, but he’ll be productive enough when he’s in the lineup to satisfy both the Cubs and fantasy owners. Luckily, fantasy folk don’t have to make a multi-year commitment. Expect Milton to mash when he’s in the lineup-just have a decent backup plan in place for his inevitable DL stint.