Archive for Mikolas

When introducing my 2018 bold predictions, I talked about “not being bold just to be bold.” I sought to demonstrate that, by “abiding by The Process ^TM,” I could make bold predictions that, frankly, didn’t feel all htat bold to me. In hindsight, it’s easy to say how they really weren’t bold. But back when I made them, based on available average draft position (ADP) data, they were, by definition, bold.

It would sound arrogant for me to say my bold predictions this year could be used as a clinic on extracting value in drafts (especially with the social baggage that “putting on a clinic” carries these days). However, it might not be untrue: I hit three of my five predictions, all of them relating to guys who played key roles in the drafts of successful teams this year. Please, do forgive the arrogance, then; I’ll do my best to explain how the strategies I employed this year are repeatable.

All end-of-season values will rely on ESPN’s Player Rater.

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You don’t care about this part! You care about the predictions.

I originally wrote my bold predictions for 2018 here; they arrived late and incomplete, but they arrived in some capacity, and that’s all we can ask for at this point.

I make bold predictions not for the sake of being bold but, rather, (1) using earnest judgments of player abilities and market inefficiencies and (2) to create teachable moments. My better bold predictions include prescient forecasts for Jose Ramirez and Austin Barnes; my worse ones have typically revolved around Giancarlo Stanton and Chris Davis in some capacity.

Let’s see how everything’s going so far.

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Apologies for publishing this more than a week after Opening Day. Life gets in the way sometimes.

I had grand plans to make a prediction for each defensive position (two for pitchers — one starter, one reliever). Turns out I won’t even make the standard 10 predictions. Again, apologies. As opposed to waiting any longer, I’m moving forward with my favorites and letting the others decay on the cutting room floor.

Here’s how my post, had it been published on time, would’ve started:

For me, making bold predictions is not about being bold just to be bold. It’s about abiding by The Process^TM — albeit sometimes by grasping at sabermetric straws — and using it to extract value where the market insists there is none (i.e., identify the market’s largest inefficiencies). Works vice versa, too. It also takes a little bit of balance to not make the predictions too bold so I don’t stand a chance to get any correct, but I also don’t want them to be too easily attainable, either.

In the past, The Process^TM has led me to prophetic predictions about Jose Ramirez and Austin Barnes. It has also led me to humiliating defeats, like predicting a Giancarlo Stanton bust preceding one of the more memorable seasons in recent history. Such is the nature of bold predictions; you must wear your victories loudly and proudly, but also own your mistakes. Above all, bold predictions should be teachable moments, not pissing contests.

FYI: I concocted these predictions prior to Opening Day, first week of the season be damned.

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