Archive for Mike Napoli

OK, RotoGraphers.  Your Monday morning cup of coffee from this week forward will be accompanied by some sort of discussion revolving around catchers and all the fantasy deliciousness they provide.  Since the season has yet to begin and several of you are still waiting to draft, let’s talk about when is the best time to grab your help behind the dish.  Is it wise to invest a late 2nd/early 3rd round pick on Joe Mauer or is the position deep enough to wait until later?  Fresh cup of java in hand….let’s get to it… Read the rest of this entry »

Some of my earliest childhood memories stem from baseball games with my grandfather.  The cheapest seats possible, junk food galore, and baseball chatter like you’ve never heard.  It was from him that I learned the two most important facts in baseball:  every guy out on the field was a bum and free agency killed the game.  The first was the obvious frustration from a curmudgeonly old man, but the second still rings true in a lot of ways.  I could write pages on free agency, but that’s not why I’m here today.  I’m here today to discuss a few familiar faces from behind the dish, and what their new addresses bring to the fantasy table. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2011 baseball season is almost upon us, so we here at RotoGraphs put our collective heads together to come up with some aggregate positional rankings.  I’ll be taking the lead all year with the catchers, but as a group, here’s what we came up with for now:

Despite last year’s power decline, we know the potential is there so Mauer gets the nod for the top spot.  Welcome to the big time, Buster!

Happy to have any one of these guys on my roster.  Santana is on the rise, but this could be the last chance for Wieters in the fantasy trust department.

Stable group of guys who can just tow the line for your backstop position.  Martin could be a nice sleeper in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

No major investment needs to be made here.  Some will rise, some will fall.  Arencibia’s power potential puts him at the top of the sleeper list.

Maybe a pair of diamonds in the rough in Lucroy and Snyder, but I wouldn’t want to invest more than a buck on the rest of the lot.

You’ve got to be pretty desperate to be living with these guys on your roster.

We’ll all be chiming in throughout the week with more detailed thoughts on some of the backstops and the overall rankings will be updated on a monthly basis, so stay tuned for more!

Earlier in the week we showed that you can still get a comparative advantage over your fellow drafters by drafting an elite catcher that will rack up 10-12% more plate appearances than other catchers. But that’s only half the picture – what the catchers do with their plate appearances is the rest of the picture. If you can’t get too much of a comparative advantage in terms of the other statistics, the plate appearances won’t matter much.

In order to do that, we’ll take a look at some of the projections for catchers that should go early and catchers that go later. We’ll use draft picks from the Stupidly Early Mock Draft over at RotoHardball.com to approximate ADP (but there’s more help coming from RG when it comes to rankings and mocks, don’t worry).

First, let’s just take the Bill James projections for the top 12 catchers, grouped not in tiers, but just in groups of four. These jerry-rigged tiers will allow us to compare the top, middle, and bottom catchers without too much discussion about getting them into the correct tiers. A straight average of the groups should put this into focus.

2.10 Joe Mauer .338 BA, 15 HR, 3 SB, 93 R, 87 RBI
4.1 Brian McCann .280 BA, 24 HR, 4 SB, 68 R, 94 RBI
4.2 Victor Martinez .298 BA, 19 HR, 1 SB, 69 R, 88 RBI
4.3 Buster Posey .308 BA, 21 HR, 1 SB, 74 R, 83 RBI

Top-“Tier” Average: .306 BA, 20 HR, 2 SB, 76 R, 88 RBI

7.5 Geovany Soto .276 BA, 20 HR, 0 SB, 56 R, 72 RBI
7.8 Carlos Santana .280 BA, 22 HR, 7 SB, 83 R, 91 RBI
9.4 Matt Wieters .288 BA, 16 HR, 0 SB, 55 R, 74 RBI
12.11 Mike Napoli .246 BA, 24 HR, 4 SB, 62 R, 66 RBI

Mid-“Tier” Average: .273 BA, 21 HR, 3 SB, 64 R, 76 RBI

14.6 Jorge Posada .260 BA, 16 HR, 2 SB, 49 R, 60 RBI
14.7 Miguel Montero .273 BA, 14 HR, 0 SB, 51 R, 58 RBI
15.9 Ryan Hanigan .281 BA, 5 HR, 0 SB, 39 R, 37 RBI
16.12 Kurt Suzuki .266 BA, 13 HR, 4 SB, 65 R, 73 RBI

Bottom-“Tier” Average: .270 BA, 12 HR, 1 SB, 51 R, 57 RBI

It looks like you get what you pay for, but the middle tier might get you the best value. The bottom tier looks pretty bad, but if you replace Hanigan with John Buck, whose projections are a little rosier (.248 BA, 17 HR, 0 SB, 47 R, 60 RBI), then your averages for the bottom tier look a little nicer – .262 BA, 15 HR, 53 R, 63 RBI.

While the top three in plate appearances will show a comparative advantage over the rest of the field, plate appearances can be hard to predict. Going by projected performance, it looks like the best plan may be to wait, but not wait too long.

Joe Mauer owners received some bad news on Sunday, as Minnesota Twins manager Rod Gardenhire said that Mauer (bruised left heel) may be week-to-week as opposed to day-to-day. With Mauer ailing, the Twins summoned prospect Wilson Ramos from Triple-A Rochester.

Ramos, 22, signed out of Venezuela in 2004 and ranked as the second-best talent in the Minnesota system (per Baseball America and Marc Hulet) entering the season. BA also named Ramos as its Winter Player of the Year after he mashed as a member of the Tigres de Aragua.

The 6-0, 220 pound righty batter has a career .288/.336/.441 line in the minors, including a .317/.341/.454 triple-slash during a 2009 season spent mostly at Double-A. Ramos is very aggressive at the dish (career six percent walk rate), but he makes a good deal of contact and has some pop, as his 18.1 percent K rate and .153 ISO attest.

While Ramos seems capable of becoming a quality starting catcher in the majors one day, he has struggled to stay healthy: he broke the tip of his left middle finger and injured his hamstring last year, missing nearly three months total. Also, Ramos doesn’t have much experience in the upper levels of the minors. He took 214 trips to the plate at Double-A last year and was off to a slow start at Triple-A this season (.179/.214/.328 in 70 PA, with three walks and 15 punch outs). CHONE projected a .263/.303/.394 line prior to 2010, and ZiPS had a .256/.297/.369 forecast. Four-for-five start aside, Ramos might not hit the ground running.

Here are some other backstops with relatively low ownership rates who may be available in your league:

Mike Napoli, Angels (owned in 51% of Yahoo leagues)

Some fantasy players abandoned Napoli due to his anemic showing so far (.184/.298/.265, .271 wOBA). However, Jeff Mathis (fractured right wrist) is on the shelf and Bobby Wilson (concussion, ankle) got hit by a freight train named Teixeira. ZiPS projects a .356 rest-of-the-season wOBA for Napoli.

Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks (23%)

With Miguel Montero (left knee surgery) out, Snyder is getting the bulk of the starts behind the plate for the D-Backs. Snyder suffered a back injury and had some lousy luck on balls put in play in 2009 (.237 BABIP). In 2010, however, he’s off to a .262/.357/.508 (.373 wOBA) start. He is projected to post a .352 wOBA for the rest of the season.

Nick Hundley, Padres (6%)

Hundley has received 16 starts to Yorvit Torrealba’s nine thus far, and he’s slashing .273/.365/.418 (.344 wOBA). Hundley won’t continue to boast a .350+ BABIP, so expect that average to drop. Even so, he hit a decent .238/.313/.406 in ’09 and possesses solid secondary skills for a catcher (career 8.3 BB% and a .147 ISO). ZiPS isn’t all that optimistic, though, with a .300 wOBA projected from here on out.

As you can probably gather from our first book offering, the 582-page FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy companion (now available for less than $8), we’re pretty serious about fantasy baseball around here. As such, this post launches our official RotoGraphs fantasy draft order rankings as you prepare for your upcoming drafts. We’ll be rolling out Top 15 lists for each position over the next little while and we’ll be updating them throughout March to give you the most accurate information as you shape your 2010 (winning) rosters. At least four RotoGraphs writers weighed in on each positional ranking.

The Top Targets:
1. Joe Mauer, Minnesota (.438 wOBA)
2. Victor Martinez, Boston (.375 wOBA)
3. Brian McCann, Atlanta (.359 wOBA)

It should come as no shock that the reigning American League MVP is the top target amongst catchers. Mauer’s value should be helped by a full season from Justin Morneau, as well as the additions of second baseman Orlando Hudson and shortstop J.J. Hardy, both of whom will reduce the playing time for the offensive vacuum known as Nick Punto. A better-balanced lineup can only help Mauer’s RBI and run totals.

Martinez is a great player to have in your fantasy lineup because he is eligible at both catcher and first base, which gives you added flexibility. A full season in Boston (He was traded from Cleveland midway through 2009) should have a positive effect on his numbers – especially in terms of RBI opportunities, and he should see better pitches now that he has more protection in the lineup.

McCann got off to a slow start in ’09 and April was pretty much a write-off thanks to vision problems, which are no longer a concern. On the downside, the Braves lineup is not significantly better than it was in ’09 so he will have limited protection in the lineup if Chipper Jones and/or Troy Glaus start to show their age.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Jorge Posada, New York AL (.378 wOBA)
5. Matt Wieters, Baltimore (.330 wOBA)
6. Miguel Montero, Arizona (.357 wOBA)
7. Russell Martin, Los Angeles NL (.307 wOBA)
8. Mike Napoli, Los Angeles AL (.362 wOBA)

Clearly, Posada had an outstanding year in ’09 but he appeared in just 111 games and the 38-year-old can’t swim in the fountain of youth forever (although New York should obviously try bottling whatever Posada, Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera are drinking). On the complete opposite end of the spectrum, Wieters is just coming into his own. You even might be able to draft the catcher in a favorable spot if your fantasy baseball owners are still feeling let down by his ’09 season. Wieters had an encouraging debut for a 23-year-old catcher, but expectations were incredibly (and unfairly) high for him.

Montero seized the starting gig away from Chris Snyder in ’09 thanks to an injury but fantasy managers would probably feel a little bit better if Snyder was off-loaded to another club in spring training (after proving his health). Martin appeared to be on the cusp of fantasy greatness a couple years ago, but his power has dried up. Still, there aren’t many backstops that can steal you 10-20 bases in a season and he’s reportedly bulked up a bit in an effort to hit more taters. Napoli would perhaps be more deserving of a higher ranking if A) Jeff Mathis projected to have fewer at-bats, or B) The club would give more at-bats to Napoli at DH. Unfortunately, the addition of former Yankee Hideki Matsui will eat up most of the DH opportunities.

The Leftovers:
9. Geovany Soto, Chicago NL (.310 wOBA)
10. Chris Iannetta, Colorado (.346 wOBA)
11. Kurt Suzuki, Oakland (.321 wOBA)
12. Bengie Molina, San Francisco (.308 wOBA)
13. Yadier Molina, St. Louis (.337 wOBA)
14. Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh (.306 wOBA)
15. A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago AL (.326 wOBA)

Of the “leftovers,” the highest potentials come from Soto, Iannetta, and Doumit. Soto was not in great playing shape last season and he’s reportedly motivated to recapture his past Rookie of the Year glory. Iannetta has the offensive bonus of playing in Colorado, but the free agent signing of Miguel Olivo could mean fewer at-bats, unless the youngster breaks out in a big way. Doumit’s ’09 season was ruined by injuries and he appeared in 75 games. He has good power for a catcher but he’s also hurt by a below-average offense in Pittsburgh.

Up Next: The First Basemen

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops here.)

Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place.

One of the biggest arguments of the offseason in regards to this position will be whether or not Joe Mauer belongs in a tier of his own. Certainly, if he repeats his work from last year, he’ll be above and beyond the best catcher in the league. The problem with projecting his power next year is that he didn’t crack 30% fly balls last year, he just more than doubled his career HR/FB rate (and tripled 2008’s number). That uncertainty regarding his power ‘drags’ him down into a tier with the recovered Victor Martinez and the steady power producer Brian McCann.

Next comes the tier that mixes strong rookies with some doubt with an ageless wonder in Jorge Posada. Matt Wieters or Miguel Montero have the upside to blaze past Posada (at least in terms of batting average). Just look at the second halves that Wieters (.301/.351/.415) and Montero (.316/.366/.534) put up last year for a little taste of the possibility. Though Mike Napoli made a small stride in his strike out rate (27.1% in 2009, 29.7% career), it’s still high, and he’s still the most likely to put up the worst batting average of the group.

The third tier is a mix of riskier young catchers with upside remaining and less-valuable older catchers on their way down. Actually, to be fair, A.J. Pierzynski doesn’t seem to be declining currently with his best batting average in seven years, but he is utterly devoid of upside and provides minimal returns in the power categories. For example, despite a major step back in his slugging percentage (all the way down to .329), Russell Martin could easily hit more home runs than AJ next year (and that doesn’t even mention his stolen bases). Geovany Soto seems to have had some terrible luck (.251 BABIP, .310 career) and is a decent bet for a bounce back. Buster Posey has to be seen as more of a risk than the young veterans ahead of him, despite his strong minor league numbers, just because of his youth (22) and his struggles last year. Bengie Molina had his worst wOBA (.308) in six years and doesn’t have a starting job in hand currently.

The final tier includes a trio of long shots at this point. Though there is reason to remain excited about Chris Iannetta, there are negatives for every positive. You might want to point to his bad BABIP (.253), but that may have been because of his bad line drive rate (16%). You like a power hitter to hit fly balls, but maybe not as many as the young Rockie (52%). If he straightens out those hits a little, he could even leap a tier next year, and he’s the best long shot in the bottom tier. Ryan Doumit just can’t stay healthy, and Kurt Suzuki hadn’t even shown this power before last year (.421 slugging in 2009, .398 career) and without it, you’re relying on a catcher for (already modest) speed.

Many of us will own someone on the bottom of this list sometime next year, but will we really want to draft them at the beginning of the year?

Quick: name the catcher with the highest slugging percentage (minimum 270 plate appearances) in 2008. Geovany Soto? No. Kelly Shoppach? Nope. Brian McCann? Closer, but not quite.

The answer, believe it or not, is Mike Napoli, with a whopping .586 mark. While the Angels backstop has yet to receive a full-time job in his three big league seasons, he has proven more than capable of crushing the ball on a regular basis.

Yes, Napoli does strike out. A lot. In 714 career at-bats, the 27 year-old has whiffed at a 31.2% clip. However, unlike Cleveland’s Shoppach (another high power, low contact catcher) Napoli combines his extra-base pop with a very keen batting eye. He posted a rock-solid .374 OBP in the minors, and that plate patience has carried over to the majors rather seamlessly. Napoli has drawn free passes 14.3% of the time, rarely straying outside of the strike zone (23.4 O-Swing%). Napoli’s batting average won’t be pretty, but he possesses the walks and power to remain a very productive hitter.

Napoli’s power is impressive regardless of his position, but it’s downright heavenly for a catcher. Owner of a career .493 slugging percentage and a gargantuan .245 ISO, Napoli took his slugging exploits to even greater levels last year. Granted, it was only 274 PA, but Napoli’s .313 ISO was the best of any batter receiving at least 270 PA, surpassing demi-god/cyborg Albert Pujols (.296), and his wOBA of .399 ranked 15th in the big leagues.

The Angels’ 17th-round pick in the 2000 draft has yet to receive a full-time gig for two reasons: 1.) Napoli suffered ankle and hamstring injuries in 2007, as well as a shoulder ailment in 2008 and 2.) the Angels have taken a liking to catch-and-throw backstop Jeff Mathis. Mathis was once a well-regarded prospect himself, but offense dried up upon reaching AAA Salt Lake City, and he has authored a sickly .195/.272/.326 line in 589 career PA. It is pretty difficult to conceive of a scenario where Mathis’ defense atones for that sort of offensive performance (and, Napoli actually posted better caught stealing percentages in 2006 and 2007, before Mathis bested him in ’08 while Napoli dealt with a shoulder injury).

Mike Napoli might not be as well known as some other players who don the tools of ignorance, but his potent bat makes him an intriguing choice on draft day. Napoli may miss a few games with some bumps and bruises, and Brad Ausmus proxy Mathis could steal a start here and there. But how many catcher possess secondary skills of this caliber? The Bill James projection system forecasts a .252/.361/.512 line for Napoli in 449 AB, with a whopping 31 home runs. Perhaps you might think that’s a tad optimistic, but even more conservative estimates would place Napoli among the top-hitting catchers in the major leagues. If you want an Angelic performance from your starting catcher, Nab Napoli while you still can.