Archive for Mike MacDougal

After examining some of the interesting hitters non-tendered, let’s now turn our focus toward the hurlers let go by teams on Saturday. I only included CHONE projections for a select few, as many of these pitchers are still on the rehab trail.

Jose Arredondo

Arredondo was a revelation out of the Angels bullpen in 2008 (8.11 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 3.62 xFIP), but he endured a nightmarish 2009 campaign and is now set to undergo Tommy John surgery. The small righty with big stuff wasn’t nearly as bad in 2009 as his 6.00 ERA would indicate, as his BABIP was .339 and his strand rate was just 64.9%. Arredondo’s xFIP was 4.03. He missed more bats (9.4 K/9), but his control suffered (4.6 BB/9). Jose also whiffed a bunch of batters (10.5 K/9) and walked the yard (6.1 BB/9) in 20.2 innings at AAA.

Matt Capps (56 IP, 6.91 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9)

Capps was something of a surprise non-tender, but his reputation might surpass his actual contribution at this point. To be sure, he’s nowhere near as bad as his 5.80 ERA in 2009 would suggest: his BABIP was a stunning .370. Capps has excellent control (career 1.66 BB/9), but he doesn’t whiff many batters for a late-game reliever (6.89 K/9). An extreme fly ball pitcher (career 36 GB%), Capps benefitted from abnormally low home run/fly ball rates in 2007 (4.4%) and 2008 (6.8%). In ’09, that figure regressed to 13.5%. Check out Capps’ ERA and xFIP numbers from 2007 to 2009:

2007: 2.28 ERA, 4.31 xFIP
2008: 3.02 ERA, 3.95 xFIP
2009: 5.80 ERA, 4.37 xFIP

Add in Capps’ recent health problems (DL stints for a shoulder injury in ’08 and an elbow malady in ’09), and the non-tender begins to make more sense.

Mike MacDougal (55 IP, 6.71 K/9, 5.56 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9)

The Nationals wisely let the control-challenged, injury-prone MacDougal walk, rather than going to arbitration with a guy whose surface stats (20 saves in 21 chances, 4.31 ERA) far exceeded his peripherals (5.63 K/9, 6.29 BB/9, 4.99 xFIP). MacDougal was as wild as ever in 2009, and his stuff missed few bats. The 32 year-old righty decided to chuck mid-90’s heater after mid-90’s heater (Mac tossed his fastball almost 90% of the time in 2009). Subsequently, his contact rate spiked to 83.9%, compared to a career 78.2% average.

Adam Miller

Sigh. The electric right-hander was once the pride of the Indians organization, and for good reason. His mid-90’s heat and sinister slider fooled plenty of batters in the minors. But injuries have ruined Miller’s career. Elbow problems slowed him a few years ago, and a pair of surgeries on his right middle finger could possibly end his career before it even got started.

(Update: Miller and Reyes have been re-signed by the Indians.)

Scott Olsen

Have you seen Olsen’s career? In 2006, the lefty looked like one of the more valuable commodities in the N.L. At 22 years old, Olsen posted a 4.07 xFIP in 180.2 IP, whiffing 8.27 hitters per nine innings and displaying an excellent slider and changeup.

After a mediocre 2007 season (4.95 xFIP), Olsen’s velocity fell off a cliff in 2008. So did his ability to make hitters miss: 8.27 K/9 in ’06, 6.78 in ’07, and just 5.04 per nine in ’08. A trade to the Nationals did little to revive his velocity and career, and Olsen underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in July. Perhaps Washington will bring the soon-to-be 26 year-old back at a lower cost, but his stock has plummeted.

Anthony Reyes

The former Cardinals prospect has a fantastic minor league track record. However, Reyes likes to work up in the zone with his high-80’s-low-90’s fastball. That has led to a ton of fly balls (35.9 GB%) and dingers (1.35 HR/9) in the big leagues. His career line in the majors: 5.05 xFIP, 6.29 K/9 and 3.65 BB/9 in 293.1 frames.

Reyes’ career has also been marred by elbow ailments, and he underwent Tommy John surgery this past June after an abysmal performance with the Indians. The 28 year-old has a pair of decent secondary pitches in a mid-70’s curveball (+0.13 runs/100 career) and a mid-70’s changeup (+0.32 runs/100). He’s going to have to learn to keep that heater down, though, lest it continue to get scorched (-0.52 runs/100).

(Update: Reyes and Miller have been re-signed by the Indians.)

Chien-Ming Wang (103 IP, 5.42 K/9, 3.15 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9)

Which sinkerballer’s career has imploded more: Wang’s or Fausto Carmona’s?

Wang (30 in March) had a mind-bending 9.64 ERA in 42 frames this past season: a .397 BABIP and a 53.1% strand rate will do that. He was the most groundball-centric pitcher in the big leagues earlier in his career, getting worm-burners over 60% of the time from 2007-2009. But during injury-plagued 2008 and 2009 campaigns (season-ending Lisfranc problem in ’08, a hip ailment and a shoulder injury requiring season-ending surgery in ’09), Wang’s groundball rate fell to around 53-54%.

He’s still recovering from that June shoulder surgery, and he isn’t expected to take a big league mound until late spring or early summer. If Wang can get healthy, he and his 4.22 career xFIP could still be of use to clubs.

Mark Worrell

A righty reliever with a wacky delivery, Worrell was acquired by the Padres (along with Luke Gregerson) in last winter’s Khalil Greene trade.

While Gregerson was extremely effective out of the ‘pen for San Diego, Worrell underwent Tommy John surgery and missed the ’09 season. Worrell has missed a ton of bats in the minors. He could re-sign with the Padres as he continues his rehab.

It is never too late to improve your team! Here are five players available on the waiver wire under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your squad for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Mike MacDougal (35%) – Released by the White Sox after five games and a 12.46 ERA, MacDougal has found new life with the Nationals and has ascended to the closer role. Ordinarily, this is not someone we would focus on, as he has a 4.48 FIP with Washington, compared to a 1.93 ERA, along with below-average K numbers. But with less than a month remaining in the season and the chance to pick up saves, he becomes an attractive add.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Homer Bailey (28%) – Coming off back-to-back starts in which he has allowed just one run in 15 innings, Bailey could still yet turn into the pitcher we have been waiting for the past few years. After averaging in the low 90s in his first two years in the majors, Bailey checks in this year at 94.5 and he was clocked at 98 in his August 23rd start.

Under 20 Percent Owned

Sean West (15%) – Has hurled a Quality Start in three of his last four outings, missing only in the second of back-to-back starts against the Astros. He tied a season high with 7 Ks in his last outing. West is 5-2 with a 3.26 ERA in nine home games this season.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Drew Stubbs (5%) – After starting the season 2-17, Stubbs has put up a .295-2-5-8-3 line in his last nine games. Stubbs is a “tools” guy, so he offers the chance for HR and SB for the final month of the season. His AVG may be his weakest tool, but that should not hurt fantasy teams too much this late in the season.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Milton Bradley (53%) – Yes, he has some baggage. But he is also a productive hitter when in the lineup, which should be all that matters as you chase a money spot in your league. In his last 35 games, Bradley has a .319-5-15-27-2 line. And unlike last year, Bradley is doing it in 2009 with sustainable numbers in a .319 BABIP and a 12.9% HR/FB rate.

There are two baseball games already underway and another 10 on tap for tonight. Let’s hit some fantasy links as the season rolls on…

Getting amped for September call-up season? So are we, and so are others. Charlie Saponara of FantasyBaseball365.com thinks Cameron Maybin’s defense could earn him some playing time in Florida’s crowded outfield down the stretch. Maybin has been a disappointment on the major league level thus far, but, as Saponara notes, there’s reason to think he could steal a few bases in September.

Knox Bardeen of AOL Fanhouse thinks the Diamondbacks may roll with a closer-by-committee in the wake of Chad Qualls‘ knee injury, with Juan Gutierrez getting most of the chances and a combination of Clay Zavada and Esmerling Vasquez filling in the gaps. “You may want to avoid the Diamondbacks closer situation all together,” Bardeen writes, “and grab either Mike MacDougal or Leo Nunez from the waiver wire.” Andy Behrens of Yahoo! Sports calls Gutierrez “the add,” noting that he averages a closer-like 94.9 MPH average velocity on his fastball.

Bardeen also takes a quick look at the fantastic (and vastly underrated) season that Angels first baseman Kendry Morales is piecing together. The Halos deserve a pat on the back for pulling out of the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes last winter and going with the 26-year-old Morales. A .283/.331/.509 career hitter, he is batting .311/.355/.593 this season.

Rotoworld’s Aaron Gleeman believes Zack Greinke is headed for his first Cy Young Award. As Gleeman notes, “He leads the AL with a 2.32 ERA, six complete games, three shutouts, and a 1.08 WHIP while ranking behind only Justin Verlander with 202 strikeouts and second to only CC Sabathia with 190.1 innings.” Even with his lack of win potential, Greinke remains a top fantasy arm down the stretch.

Grey over at Razzball ranks MLB’s closers in tier format. His top dogs for the home stretch? The Twins’ Joe Nathan, the Yankees’ Mariano Rivera, Boston’s Jonathan Papelbon, the Mets’ Francisco Rodriguez and the Dodgers’ Jonathan Broxton. The Cardinals’ Ryan Franklin heads his second group of ninth-inning stoppers.

Have a link, question or comment you’d like to share? Shoot me an e-mail or find me on Twitter.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Gavin Floyd and trade Mark DeRosa last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Ian Stewart – Last year Stewart had a .364 BABIP in the majors. This year he checks in with a .244 mark in the category, so there is a lot of room for growth in his low average. Obviously, he cannot keep up his insane power numbers, either the .286 ISO or the 21.6 percent HR/FB. But Stewart has claimed a full-time job, has cut down some on his strikeouts from last year and either has or is on the doorstep to eligibility at both 2B and 3B depending on your league format. And if you think he is simply a Coors Field product, Stewart is batting just .120 with only four of his 11 HR in his home park.

Scott Baker – Yes, the home runs are absolutely killing him. Hopefully, his 2.26 HR/9 rate will fall significantly. But even with that HR rate, his FIP is lower than his ERA and the 64.2 percent strand rate shows he has had some bad luck, too. And his WHIP and K numbers are already solid.

Laynce Nix – In the early part of the decade, Nix was one of the top prospects in baseball. John Sickels called him “a potential Seven Skill player” following the 2002 season and Baseball America ranked him on their Top 100 Prospect List (85) following the 2003 campaign. And then the injuries started piling up. Now Nix is finally healthy, getting playing time and producing. The AVG is as high as it is going to get but anyone looking for a cheap source of power should invest here. The updated ZiPS projection shows him finishing with 21 HR in 362 AB and he is likely to get more playing time than that.

Mike MacDougal – The one-time Kansas City closer is now the closer in Washington. There is no guarantee as to how long he will have the job, but Joel Hanrahan has already lost the position twice. Owned in fewer than two percent of ESPN leagues, MacDougal could be an easy source of saves.

Trade

Michael Young – It is time to look to sell high on Young. He has great stats, name recognition and multiple position eligibility, so there should be no problem finding a taker. He also has a .361 BABIP and a career-best .200 ISO, thanks in large part to a HR/FB mark of 14.3 percent, also a career-best and virtually double the mark he posted in 2008.

Erik Bedard – Another sell-high candidate, Bedard has pitched great this season. But his FIP is a run higher than his ERA and his 83.6 percent strand rate is the seventh-highest mark in the majors. Like Young, Bedard should still be a valuable fantasy player even if/when regression hits. Trading them now is just trying to maximize their value and not any indictment of their skills.

Mike Lowell – A hot start by Lowell, combined with an injury to Jed Lowrie and the decline of David Ortiz, has caused the 35-year-old third baseman to play 55 of the first 57 games for the Red Sox. In his first 30 games, Lowell batted .314 with six HR in 117 AB. Since then he is batting .275 with three HR in 102 AB. That could easily be random fluctuation. But combined with the collapse of his walk rate, a career-low 3.9 percent, following back-to-back years of 8.3 percent, it may be a more ominous sign.

Josh Outman – The production of the A’s young pitching staff has been a wonderful story the past few weeks. Unfortunately, Outman’s peripherals do not match his 4-0 record nor his 3.17 ERA. His FIP checks in at 4.20 and as you might guess, his BABIP is .246 and his strand rate is 74.8 percent.

Derrek Lee – A hot streak the last three weeks, in which Lee hit .364, has his AVG for the season up to .262 after it was beneath the Mendoza Line in mid-May. But Lee is still hitting for even less power than he did the past two seasons. ZiPS now forecasts him to finish the year with 17 HR. And the SB which helped prop up his value last year are missing, too. Lee currently has zero steals.