Archive for Miguel Cabrera

Today’s mailbag question comes courtesy of reader JD, who asks:

I am in a 10 team keeper (6) roto league with R, 2B, HR, RBI, BB, KO, SB, AVG, and OPS as the offensive categories. Right now I have both Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera as first basemen. Do have any advice on which one I should trade and which one I should keep?

I also have both Evan Longoria and Pablo Sandoval (eligible at 1st as well) at 3rd. Obviously Longoria is better now, and probably will continue to be, but how do you think Sandoval will improve? Could he reach the consistent 30 HR neighborhood this season? Depending on how you see him progressing do you think it would be smart to trade Longoria, or Sandoval? Or maybe keep them both? I can only keep 6, and Sandoval is hovering on the edge right now. The choice is among him, Chris Carpenter, Nick Markakis, Clayton Kershaw, A.J. Burnett, and Jonathan Broxton.

Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder on the same club. Nice work last year, JD. The easiest way to compare these two players is to simply displaying their numbers side-by-side and see what comes out of it.

2009 Stats
Prince – .299/.412/.602, 46 HR, 141 RBI, 35 2B, 163 wRC+
Miggy – .324/.396/.547, 34 HR, 103 RBI, 34 2B, 148 wRC+

2010 Fan Projections
Prince – .290/.396/.583, 43 HR, 135 RBI, 33 2B, 155 wRC+
Miggy – .321/.391/.558, 35 HR, 124 RBI, 37 2B, 148 wRC+

Cabrera is a superior AVG hitter, but big daddy Fielder is a far better HR hitter. It’s a hard decision to make, but I’d keep Fielder over Cabrera. Trading Miggy shouldn’t be difficult, because only one or two other owners will have a better first baseman on their squad. While keeping Prince is better if you want extra power while sacrificing some average, Miggy is a better keeper if your team needs average. Looking at the team you have assembled with the little information I have, I’d keep Prince.

Now, onto part two of JD’s question. Let’s look at what the Fan’s expect from the Kung Fu Panda next season:

2010 Fan Projection
Panda – .325/.387/.556, 26 HR, 111 RBI, 41 2B, 141 wRC+

I’d have to say I agree with the Fans at this point. Projecting 111 RBI is a bit much with the lineup he has around him, but he will likely get 90+ in 2010. Playing San Fran kills his power numbers, but 25 HR is about where he is at this stage of his career.

I would recommend keeping Sandoval around for another year and letting Burnett walk (or trade him). Burnett’s injury problems scare me, as do Carpenter’s. But unlike Carpenter, Burnett isn’t a fantasy Ace anymore when healthy. Assuming you have a CI or UTIL spot, you can play Sandoval, Longoria and Fielder everyday, and that is a solid combination to base your lineup around (along with Markakis).

Have a question for the RotoGraphs authors? Send it in to our mailbag (rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com) for consideration.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, and second basemen.)

Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place. Oh, another note: these rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.

It’s probable that Albert Pujols is a tier of his own. He is a true stud in every category when compared to his peers. But without the 15 or so steals, he might belong right along side the other two metronomes in Mark Teixeira and Miguel Cabrera, two young studs at the position who are virtual locks for a plus batting average 35+ home runs, and gobs of runs and RBI. There’s not much to say here other than, since this is a deep position, it’s worth considering comparable middle infielders over these guys – just look how long and balanced this list is.

The third tier has three players that could, in the right year, outperform guys in the second tier. Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Adrian Gonzalez have all had years with power production that has eclipsed that of the two players above them. But they also have their issues. Fielder alternates medium-power years with high-power years, Howard won’t ever put in a plus batting average with his high strikeout rates, and Gonzalez would be more exciting if only he could get his batting average out of the ‘neutral’ territory and into ‘plus’ like the guys in tier two. Maybe, when he walks fewer times with his next team as Dave Cameron seems to have predicted, his BABIP will also regress to his career levels and his batting average will rise, though it’s hard to predict anything more than a .280 number there.

The middle tier provides some real opportunity for value. Each and every member of this tier could easily hit .300 with 30 home runs and good run production next year. Justin Morneau, Lance Berkman and Kendry Morales have all done it before, and Kevin Youkilis has gotten about as close as you can get. Joey Votto seems poised to join their ranks with a full year of strong play. It’s also a well balanced tier – the aging sluggers on their way down sit in front of Youkilis, who seems to have found his niche with a good batting average and modest power for a first baseman. Votto and Morales sit behind him until they prove they can consistently provide more power.

The next tier is called the ‘Dan Uggla‘ tier. These guys will give you power, but in rotisserie baseball you’ll also need to work hard to over come Adam Dunn and Carlos Pena’s poor batting averages. In head-to-head competition, their value increases because of the option of punting batting average, but in rotisserie you really need to try and compete in every category and their big minus signs are a dark cloud over the rest of their positive contributions.

The last tier could produce some tier-jumpers if the stars align. Should Derrek Lee continue to hit 45% of his balls in the air, he may jut hit another 30 home runs, which would put him in tier four. Billy Butler is still hitting too many worm-burners (47.7% groundballs career), but if can get a little lift into those balls, he’s shown that he’s a strong producer in batting average. At 30 years old, it seems that Adam LaRoche is a strong bet to continue producing at the same mediocre level going forward. He’ll probably drop off the list when a young guy steps forward next year and joins the crowd, but with the strikeout rates that Chris Davis (34.7% career) and Russell Branyan (38.9% career) sport, it’s hard to rely on them to even keep their jobs all year in 2010.

Since bursting onto the scene as a precocious 20 year-old and helping the Florida Marlins capture a World Series title in 2003, Miguel Cabrera has remained an offensive powerhouse. A career .309/.381/.541 hitter, Cabrera has already belted 175 home runs and has compiled over 20 wins above average, per WPA/LI. A look at Cabrera’s most comparable players at Baseball-Reference reveals a who’s-who of Cooperstown legends. His most similar batters through age 25 include Ken Griffey Jr., Hank Aaron, Orlando Cepeda, Frank Robinson, Mickey Mantle, Vladimir Guerrero and Al Kaline. Five Hall of Fame hitters, another surefire one in Griffey and a possible member in Vlad? That’s impressive.

With all of that praise rightly given, there is one facet of Cabrera’s performance that is trending in the wrong direction. While the 6-4, 240 pounder remained an extremely dangerous hitter upon transitioning to the AL (popping a league-best 37 home runs and typing his career-high ISO of .245), he has gradually become less selective at the plate. After posting a leviathan .430 OBP in 2006 and drawing walks at a healthy 13% clip, Cabrera posted a .401 OBP in 2007 (11.8 BB%) and a mild .349 OBP in his first season with the Tigers in 2008 (8.3%). Generally speaking, most hitters improve their plate discipline with more experience at the major league level. However, in Cabrera’s case, the exact opposite appears to be occurring. He started off with a very refined approach, but has gradually morphed into a free swinger:

Cabrera’s Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%), 2006-2008:

2006: 23.1%
2007: 30.2%
2008: 34.2%

Cabrera took as many cuts at bad balls as any hitter this past year, swinging at the 13th-highest percentage of pitches outside of the strike zone. Not coincidentally, this more aggressive approach has coincided with an increase in Cabrera’s First-Pitch Strike Percentage (F-Strike%). Cabrera has found himself behind in the count 0-and-1 or has put the ball in play on the first pitch more and more:

Cabrera’s F-Strike%, 2006-2008:

2006: 54.2%
2007: 60%
2008: 64.9%

Among qualified batters, only noted hackers Corey Hart (whose exploits have been covered), Adam Jones, Carlos Gomez and Jeff Francoeur (also covered here before) put themselves in a hole more often in 2008 than did Cabrera.

Showing less restraint at the dish, Cabrera’s incredibly lofty numbers have dipped to….well, they’re still pretty lofty. But, using one of Fangraphs’ new toys, wOBA, we can see how the lack of walks has put something of a dent in his performance. wOBA is a linear weight formula that assigns specific run values to each hitting event, giving us a very accurate account of just how much a hitter contributed to his team. It basically values these outcomes relative to each other, assigning proper weight to each outcome (for instance, a home run is going to be assigned a little more than twice the run value of a single). wOBA is aligned to look like OBP, so the league average wOBA is always the league average OBP for a given year. For a more complete explanation, see Dave Cameron’s post here.

From 2006 to 2008, Cabrera has posted wOBA’s of .413, .402 and .376, respectively. Using the league average wOBA, we can find how many runs above average Cabrera contributed in each season. To find this, you subtract Cabrera’s wOBA from the league average, divide that number by 1.15 and multiply by the number of plate appearances he got each season.

2006

Cabrera’s wOBA: .413
LG AVG wOBA: .334

.413 (Cabrera’s wOBA)-.334 (NL average wOBA) = .079 (Difference between Cabrera and the LG AVG)
.079/1.15 = .0687 (Runs above average per PA)
.0687 X 676 (Cabrera’s PA in 2006) = 46.4 runs above average

Using that same approach, here are Cabrera’s RAA totals for 2007 and 2008:

2007

Cabrera’s wOBA: .402
LG AVG wOBA: .334

40.2 runs above average

2008

Cabrera’s wOBA: .376
LG AVG wOBA: .335

24.4 runs above average

In the course of a few seasons, Cabrera has gone from four-and-a-half wins above average with his bat to about two-and-half. This drop is also reflected in his WPA/LI, which has fallen from 5.41 in 2006, down to 3.5 in 2007 and 2.45 this past year. Cabrera is still very effective, to be sure, but that’s a pretty steep drop.

None of this is to suggest that Miguel Cabrera is someone that you want to avoid come draft day. But, given his shift down the defensive spectrum to first base (he’ll qualify at third base this year, but that’s probably it) and his declining plate discipline, perhaps Cabrera isn’t quite the value he might seem upon first glance. Cabrera has all the talent in the world, but he’s going to have to show a little more patience if he wants to make good on the Hall of Fame comparisons bestowed upon him.