Archive for Mets

Francisco Rodriguez had a fantastic season in 2008, where he set the single-season save record and was the most valuable relief pitcher in fantasy baseball. But conventional wisdom says to avoid Rodriguez this year in fantasy drafts. It would be one thing if analysts said that he was likely to have 20 fewer saves this season and left it at that. Instead, they talk about how Rodriguez has had four years of declining peripherals and is on the verge of losing his effectiveness as a relief pitcher.

Rodriguez has declining peripherals has been repeated so often that it is now virtually an urban myth. And like with all urban myths, you should politely nod and completely ignore it.

In 2004, Rodriguez had a 13.18 K/9 ratio. Anyone who expected him to maintain that rate the rest of his career was not being realistic. His 10.14 K/9 in 2008 was the 15th-best mark in the majors. Rodriguez is in a lose-lose scenario with analysts in regards to his strikeout rate. Any higher and they would claim it was unsustainable. And now that it’s not in the top 10, it’s a huge warning sign that he’s lost his stuff.

To further back up this point, people will tell you that his velocity has shown a similar drop the past few seasons. In 2006, his average fastball velocity was 94.8 mph while last year it was 91.9, a significant drop.

Rodriguez himself claims that the velocity drop last year was due to his adding a changeup. He intentionally threw his fastball with less velocity in order to keep his changeup delivery consistent. Furthermore, Rodriguez claims that he has mastered the changeup and that the delivery is no longer an issue.

Now, it’s one thing to make those kinds of proclamations. It’s another thing entirely for them to stand up to the scrutiny of examining numbers. Did Rodriguez throw harder later in the year than he did at the beginning?

Yes.

According to Dan Brooks’ PitchFX tool, in his outing on April 29, Rodriguez’ average fastball was 91.99 mph while his maximum checked in at 92.6. Fast forward to September and we see a different story. On September 24 his average was 93.67 while his maximum was 95.3. And that is not cherry picking his best September performance. Check any of his outings in the month and you will see average and maximum velocities significantly higher than what he did in April and more in line with what he did in 2006, his top average velocity year for the four seasons in which we have data.

The doubters will then turn to his walk rate. Last year, Rodriguez allowed 4.48 BB/9, a truly bad number. But this doesn’t fit into the declining peripherals storyline, as he posted a 4.54 mark the previous season. Additionally, we see that Rodriguez struggled with walks in April. In 2008, he had six outings in which he gave up two or more walks and four of those came in the first month of the season.

In the second half of last year, Rodriguez had a 2.73 BB/9. And if we just eliminate April, his BB/9 was 3.97, nearly half a walk per game lower than it was for the entire season.

Another factor to consider in addition to working in a new pitch is that Rodriguez suffered from an ankle injury in April.

Now we have the additional knowledge that Rodriguez will be pitching in the National League in 2009. He won’t have to face designated hitters, frequently one of the top hitters on an opposing team. And while Rodriguez won’t get to face any pitchers, last year pinch hitters in the National League posted a .229/.317/.345 line. Now, Rodriguez will likely fact the top PH but they will still produce lines inferior to the designated hitters he is used to facing.

Taken all together, there is no sound reason to predict a massive decline for Rodriguez in 2009. Yes, his save numbers will likely take a big hit. But given his age, track record and switch to the National League there is no reason not to slot him as one of the top relievers in the game. While others may back away from Rodriguez, this gives smart fantasy owners a chance to get one of the top relievers in the game at a relative bargain.

If you do a couple of things really well, people will trip all over themselves to praise you but if you do everything well and nothing spectacular, people will underrate you. Let’s take a quick look at Ryan Howard and Carlos Beltran. Howard gives you HRs and RBIs and people drool over those numbers. There have been 2009 mock drafts with Howard going in the first round despite being the 18th-best fantasy hitter in 2008.

Meanwhile, Beltran contributes in five categories but is no threat to finish in the top three in any of them. He’s a late second round pick in the same mocks, even though he was the 10th-best fantasy hitter last year, according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. And it’s easy to see why. In 2004, he nearly went 40-40, missing by two home runs. Last year Beltran went 27-25 and simply did not have the sexy numbers.

The decline in steals is not a great shock, as Beltran is in his early 30s now. But what happened to the power? How does a guy who hit 41 home runs in 2006 manage just 27 in 2008, despite nearly 100 more at-bats (606-510)? Let’s look at this graphically.

As the preceding graph shows, Beltran has undergone a steep decline in his FB% (the blue line) in the past few years. Also, his HR/FB rate has dropped noticeably, too. However, his FB% is not out of line with what he’s done previously. A 13 percent drop in two years seems extreme, but Beltran’s 2008 rate fits in perfectly with his marks from 2002 and 2003.

Beltran’s BABIP, SLG and ISO were all within just a few points of his lifetime marks in 2008. And just to reiterate a point made earlier, Beltran was the 10th-best fantasy hitter last year. It is counter-productive to obsess about his declining power when Beltran is simply one of the safest and most reliable fantasy hitters available.

In 2006, Beltran was the 13th-best fantasy hitter. Then in 2007 he ranked 18th. If you are drafting in the middle of the second round and Beltran is available, it would be a mistake to bypass him. He is very durable, his established rate of production puts him at the top of the second round and there is always the slight chance he returns to 40-homer levels and exceeds expectations.

According to the RotoTimes Player Rater, David Wright is one of five hitters to be among the top 12 batters in both 2007 and 2008. Wright finished fourth in dollar value both seasons. The only player better is Hanley Ramirez, who finished second in both years. Should Wright be the second player picked in your fantasy draft next season?

In 2007, Wright had a .362 BABIP. He was able to retain his elite status in 2008 despite a 34-point drop in BABIP. He accomplished this because no one had a monster year like Alex Rodriguez did in 2007 and because there was an across the board drop in fantasy numbers. According to RotoTimes, each one of the top 12 fantasy batters had a lower dollar value in 2008 than their counterparts did in 2007.

Wright was crucified because of his lack of “clutch” hitting in 2008. And a quick review of the numbers shows he did not produce the same stats with men on base or runners in scoring position. Last year with men on base, Wright had a .906 OPS compared to a 1.064 mark the year before. And with RISP Wright’s OPS was .703 last year compared to .976 in 2007.

But Wright compensated for that drop by having more opportunities in both categories. In 2007 he had 204 plate appearances with RISP and 328 with men on base. In 2008, those numbers were 229 and 375, respectively. Rate wise, he was less efficient but in raw numbers, which is what fantasy players crave, he was more productive. He had a 17-point jump in RBIs from 2007 to 2008. Wright posted 18 more RBIs with men on base in 2008 than in 2007.

What does this mean for 2009? Last year, none of Wright’s peripherals changed in any meaningful way. He showed a slight increase in slugging due to tiny increases in both FB% (37.5 to 38.2) and HR/FB (16.1 to 16.7). And his BB% and K% were nearly identical. Which means Wright is one of the safest picks around.

The top half of the first round of any fantasy draft is about minimizing risk. That’s why no smart players took Albert Pujols in the first six picks last year. Not because there were doubts about Pujols and his skills, but because there were rumors that he was not going to play a full season. There simply was too much risk to take Pujols that high when equally productive players with no injury concerns were available.

That Pujols played the whole season and was the top fantasy player in 2008 is virtually irrelevant. The risk was too great. With David Wright, we have a player whose risk is extremely low. He has no health concerns, he has been both remarkably productive and consistent all while playing a key position. And Wright is entering the prime of his career.

Any draft where he is not one of the top four picks taken is not a league with serious players. Personal preference can dictate the order of the top four players but Wright’s name simply has to be there. The second overall pick is a safe spot for Wright and you could even justify taking him first if you are concerned about Hanley Ramiez losing steals if/when he drops lower in the batting order.

Daniel Murphy entered the 2008 season not even among the Mets’ top 10 prospects according to Baseball America. Prospect maven John Sickels gave him a “C” grade but called him a sleeper. Yet Murphy surprised the experts, as he rocketed to the majors where he posted a .313/.397/.473 slash line in 131 at-bats. In 2009, Murphy is viewed as a player to supplement the team’s core of Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and David Wright. The only question is where he will play.

A natural third baseman, Murphy saw the bulk of his playing time in left field for the Mets last season. This year he’s playing second base in the Arizona Fall League and is slated to play left field later in the year when he plays Winter Ball in Puerto Rico.

An .870 OPS bat will play anywhere in the field. But Murphy did post a .386 BABIP last year. He also struck out in 21.4 percent of his at-bats. Sickels praised Murphy for his line drive swing and he lived up to that reputation, with a LD% of 33.3, which was greater than his FB% of 25.5 for the Mets.

Murphy’s value goes through the roof if he is the team’s starter at second base on Opening Day. However, that seems unlikely at this point. Still, he will be a nice end-game acquisition on Draft Day. Yes, the BABIP was high in the majors, but so was the strikeout rate. At Double-A he fanned just 46 times in 357 at-bats. If his strikeout rate drops closer to his career minor league rate of 12.1 percent, a .300 average is not out of the question. Murphy has double-digit HR potential and his R/RBIs should be above-average in the team’s strong lineup.

The best-case scenario is Murphy claims the team’s starting second base job and bats second in the lineup. He could post a .300-12-70 line with 95 runs scored batting behind Reyes and in front of Wright and Beltran. In the more likely outfield batting seventh scenario, Murphy’s runs would take a big hit but he would compensate with a few more RBIs.

The ninth pick of the 2005 draft, Mike Pelfrey shook off a brutal start to begin paying dividends for both the Mets and fantasy players last year. He finished with 13 wins and a 3.72 ERA along with a 1.36 WHIP and 110 strikeouts. Those numbers combined to make Pelfrey a top-60 starting pitcher in fantasy in 2008.

Those numbers are decent but to decipher Pelfrey’s potential value in 2009, it is worthwhile to look at his numbers both before and after he turned the corner. In the first nine starts of the year, Pelfrey was 2-6 with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.776 WHIP. In his final 23 games, Pelfrey was 11-5 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.226 WHIP.

Now, those first nine starts of 2008 count and it would be foolish to write them off completely. But at the same time when projecting Pelfrey’s 2009 stats, it is equally silly to ignore the improvement he made over his final 23 games. He was so bad the first two months of the season that it dragged down his overall numbers.

If Pelfrey’s true talent level is a pitcher with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.226 WHIP then he moves up to the equal of pitchers like Ted Lilly or Jon Lester in the 20-25 range for starting pitchers.

Now we should look at his peripherals. Pelfrey had a .302 BABIP and his 3.96 FIP was slightly over his 3.72 ERA. A sinkerball pitcher, Pelfrey does an excellent job keeping the ball in the park, as his 0.54 HR/9 shows. He really turned the corner last year with his command. He finished with a 2.87 BB/9, which was nearly two full walks lower than his 2007 mark.

When valuing Pelfrey for 2009, ask if he can keep his HR rate that low. I believe with that power sinker he can. Then, can he keep the walk rate that low? Ordinarily, I would say no. But when we look at what he did over his final 23 games, his BB/9 mark was 2.37 over that span. That gives me greater confidence that he can maintain his 2008 seasonal rate of just under three.

So, the final thing to ponder is what will his K/9 look like. For all of 2008 it was 4.93, which is less than good. It was slightly better over his final 23 games – 5.16 – but nothing really to write home about, either. Pelfrey can survive without a high strikeout rate, but as fantasy players we want the big strikeout guys and it’s an important factor in ranking him appropriately.

Pelfrey had good-to-great strikeout rates in the minors. He averaged 6.81 SO/9 in 14 games at Triple-A in 2007 and had double-digit rates in 2006. And we’ve seen with Chien-Ming Wang that a sinkerballer can add strikeouts as they mature. I think a SO/9 rate of 6.00 is within reach for Pelfrey in 2009.

It’s not out of the question for Pelfrey to be a 15-game winner with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.275 WHIP. If he can maintain a 6.00 SO/9 rate, that would give him 133 strikeouts in 200 innings. And that makes him a top-25 starting pitcher.