In life, they say that with age comes wisdom. Well, in fantasy baseball, they say that with age comes a decline in numbers and that it’s time to start looking elsewhere for a younger option with much more upside. While there’s some decent young talent out there at third, there are also plenty of seniors that are still hanging on that you may want to avoid. Just to mention a few… Read the rest of this entry »
Cincinnati Reds signed SS Orlando Cabrera to a one-year, $3 million contract with a $3 million option for the 2011 season ($1 million buyout).
There’s no word yet if the option is for the player or for the club, but it’s likely a player option. Cabrera turned 35 in November, and he’s coming off of a 2009 season split between the A’s and the Twins in which he batted .284/.316/.389. Once park and league factors are accounted for, that offensive performance was 11 percent below average (89 wRC+), nearly a perfect match for his career 90 wRC+.
Cabrera has been average or better with the bat just twice in his career: 2003 (115 wRC+; viva Les Expos!) and 2007 (100 wRC+ with the Angels). However, he did at least provide fantasy players with 20-plus steals a year, and at a nifty success rate (78.9 percent career).
O-Cab’s speed appears to be waning, though. He swiped 27 bags in 30 attempts (90 success rate) in 2006, with a 5.7 Speed Score (the MLB average is about five). Cabrera hasn’t been as aggressive since then:
2007: 20 SB/4 CS (83.3%), 5.1 Speed Score
2008: 19 SB/6 CS (76%), 4.5 Speed Score
2009: 13 SB/4 CS (76.5%), 4.7 Speed Score
Cabrera is an upgrade over home-grown option Paul Janish at the plate, as CHONE projects an 89 wRC+ from Orlando and a 77 wRC+ from the 27 year-old Janish.
Whether Cabrera is a better player overall, however, depends on how you evaluate the two defensively. Janish posted excellent TotalZone ratings in the minors, and CHONE considers him about a +7 defender in full-time duty. Cabrera rated poorly in 2009 no matter what defensive metric you employ, but I have a hard time stomaching CHONE’s -15 projection for him. Jeff Zimmerman of Beyond the Boxscore has Cabrera projected as an average defender in 2010. If that’s the case, then O-Cab figures to be about a 1.8-1.9 WAR player as a full-time starter, compared to roughly 1.7 WAR for Janish. This looks like a lateral move for Cincinnati.
Cabrera should only be on your radar if you’re in a deep NL-only format.
Colorado Rockies signed INF Melvin Mora to a one-year, $1.275 million contract.
Turning 38 this month, Mora played with Baltimore since a July 2000 trade shipped him from the Mets to Orioles. He compiled a 103 wRC+ from 2006-2008, but slipped to an 82 wRC+ in 2009 while battling a hamstring injury. Mora’s ISO dipped to .098 last year, as fastballs gave him fits. Since 2002, Mora has a +0.59 run value per 100 pitches against heat. But in ’09, he was at -0.93 runs per 100 pitches. That was the 7th-worst mark in the majors among batters with 450+ plate appearances.
CHONE projects an 88 wRC+ for Mora in 2010. Going to the NL and to the best hitter’s venue in the game can’t hurt, but his fantasy value appears limited. He’s being touted as an across-the-diamond utility type, but it’s been years since Mora saw substantial time at a position other than third base.
The Orioles hold an $8 million club option on Melvin Mora for 2010, but are in no way expected to exercise it.
The third baseman turns 38 in February and hit just .260/.321/.358 this season in 450 plate appearances. He’s a shadow of the player who compiled a .340 batting average back in 2004, on top of 27 home runs, 104 RBI, and 111 runs scored. That season, his best by far, Mora posted a wOBA of .420, which ranked 10th in the league at the time and would have put him among the top three hitters in the majors this season.
Mora’s walk rate has fallen from 11.7% in 2004, to 9.1% in 2007, to 7.0% in 2009. He’s not hitting the ball with much force these days and he’s never really been considered a disciplined hitter. His Isolated Power hit a career low in 2009 at .098. It was .143 in 2007 and a career-high .222 in 2004. He’s also hitting more groundballs than he ever has with a 42.9% GB rate this year compared to where it sat — 36.1% — in 2005. That’s not a positive for an aging veteran that lacks speed.
So, what can we make of it all? And what can teams who might bid on his services this winter expect from the aging infielder in 2010?
It’s normal to see drops in production with age, especially when players near 40. And Mora, for all his faults, was among the unluckiest hitters in baseball last season with a .285 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). He’s also remained rather healthy over the course of his career and plays a fine third base. There’s no doubt he’s capable of serving as a quality utility infielder in another locale, but he may finally be off the fantasy map.
Mora will likely have to settle for a one-year contract in the $1.5 million to $3 million range, and he probably won’t find that in Baltimore, where they’re building for the future and attempting to trim some of their proverbial “fat.”
Mora played 1,256 games for the Orioles, which ranks 10th in the history of the franchise. His 252 doubles in an O’s uniform rank 7th in franchise history, his 662 RBI rank 8th and his 158 home runs rank 9th. “He’s been here for a long time. He’s been consistent,” Baltimore manager Dave Trembley said earlier this month. “He’s been the anchor at third base here for nine years. That should say it all. … He will go down as one of the top Oriole third basemen of all time and he has the numbers to back it up.”
“Is it going to hurt a lot? Of course,” Mora said in October, with the realization that he’s probably going to have to leave Camden Yards behind this winter. “I’m always going to a part of the Orioles. There’s no doubt about it.”
Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Baltimore Orioles organization that finished fifth in the American League East division with a record of 64-98. As a team, the Orioles posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of -10.70, which was 29th in the Major Leagues and second worst in the American League behind Kansas City (aka The Rays of ’09).
The Good: The Outfield
Depth is never, ever a bad thing. The Baltimore Orioles club had an exciting young outfield in ’09 with Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Nolan Reimold. The old man of the group, Luke Scott, was banished to DH duties for much of the season. Former top Cubs prospect Felix Pie even made some strides as a hitter, after a few disappointing seasons. Markakis is the stud of the group and he led the team with 101 RBI. Jones was on fire in April and May before fizzling at mid-season. At just 24 years of age, though, no one is overly worried, although his decreased range in the outfield is a bit of a concern. Reimold was a suprise American League Rookie of the Year candidate for much of the season before wearing down in August. His .187 ISO rate hints at impressive power potential. Like Jones, Reimold’s outfield defense was also a disappointment in ’09. Pie posted a .171 ISO rate while also playing at least average defense at all three outfield spots. Scott led the club with 25 home runs
Markakis continues to be a key fantasy outfield player, and Jones could join him in that category in ’10. Reimold’s season ended prematurely due to a torn achille’s tendon, but he’s expected to be healthy for spring training. He should be good for a .260-.280 average and 20-25 homers. Pie is definitely a sleeper to keep an eye on, but his value will also hinge on playing time. Scott can provide a boost in the home run and RBI categories for many fantasy teams and he did appear in 25 games in the outfield in ’09, so he should be eligible as an outfielder in most scenarios.
*If you’re drafting Baltimore pitchers – especially fly-ball hurlers like Chris Tillman – remember that all three starting outfielders (Markakis, Jones, and Reimold) showed below-average range in the field.
The Bad: Melvin Mora, 3B
At 37 years old, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Mora is on the downside of his career. His .260/.321/.358 line in 450 at-bats was a huge disappointment, as he was one of the worst offensive third basemen in the league in ’09. Mora posted an ISO rate of just .098 with providing just eight homers. He made above-average contact this past year (85.2%) but he just wasn’t able to get any power in his swing. His wOBA of .302 had him slumming it with the likes of fellow third basemen Emilio Bonifacio and Garrett Atkins. Defensively, Mora’s range has diminished, but he’s still a steady fielder when he gets to the ball.
Mora was worth just shy of a win in ’09, meaning he’ll enter the free agent market worth about $4 million, significantly less than the $9 million he received from the Orioles in the last year of his contract. He may very well end up having to take a minor-league contract if he wants to play in 2010. As well, his days of starting are probably over. Mora should not be drafted in any fantasy format in the upcoming season.