Archive for Melky Cabrera

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Madison Bumgarner – San Francisco Giants (owned in 9% of Yahoo! leagues)

Last year Bumgarner had velocity issues, with reports of his fastball topping out in the mid-80s. In his two starts in the majors this year, he has averaged 90.3, which is still not the mid-90s he was alleged to have thrown 2-3 years ago, but still a step in the right direction. Bumgarner was 7-1 at Triple-A Fresno, boosted in large part by allowing just 5 HR in 82.2 IP. He has not been so lucky with the gopher ball in the majors, as he has a 16.7 HR/FB ratio in his two starts with the Giants. But Bumgarner survived a rough debut, having to face the Red Sox and a road start in Colorado. He gave the club innings and fantasy owners a nice WHIP (1.14) and a decent K/9 of 6.43. Bumgarner’s xFIP is 3.89 and if he can give fantasy players that ERA the rest of the way, he will be a nice pickup.

Melky Cabrera – Atlanta Braves (owned in 4% of Yahoo! leagues)

The overall numbers are nothing to get excited about but Cabrera has done quite well since Nate McLouth went on the disabled list. Since June 10th, a stretch of 22 games, Cabrera is batting .284 with 7 R and 9 RBIs. While those are still not eye-popping numbers, they represent a huge improvement over what McLouth gave Atlanta, perhaps an indication Cabrera will keep playing even after McLouth gets activated. Also, for a guy available in most leagues, those are numbers that could help, especially in NL-only formats.

Vicente Padilla – Los Angeles Dodgers (owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues)

Since coming off the DL, Padilla has made three starts and the last two have been very good. After giving up 4 ER in 5.1 IP against the Red Sox in his first action in nearly two months, Padilla has tossed 7 IP in back-to-back outings. In those 14 IP, he has allowed 3 ER and has 12 Ks and 2 BB in starts against the Yankees and Giants. Padilla hit 95.5 with his fastball in his last outing and he has a full repertoire of pitches to use against batters, including a sinker, slider and curve.

Ian Desmond, Washington Nationals

The 24 year-old Desmond was recently named Washington’s starting shortstop, overtaking $8 million man Cristian Guzman. Though the club said it wasn’t a factor, Guzman (who missed time with a shoulder injury last September and this spring) has struggled to unleash throws from deep in the hole.

A third round pick in the 2004 draft, Desmond had a big year at the plate in 2009. He missed two months following surgery to remove the hamate bone in his left hand, but he hit a combined .330/.401/.477 between Double-A and Triple-A. A near-.400 BABIP helped him tremendously, though he did do a better job of working the count (9.1 percent walk rate). In a late-season stint with the Nationals, Desmond posted a .372 wOBA in 89 plate appearances. What do the projection systems say about him?

CHONE: .265/.326/.412, .324 wOBA
ZiPS: .270/.334/.388, .325 wOBA
FANS: .278/.335/.412, .330 wOBA

Desmond should be about a league-average hitter in 2010. At shortstop, that’s useful in NL-only leagues. For more on Desmond, see Dan Budreika’s breakdown and Marc Hulet’s Top 10 Nationals prospects list.

Franklin Morales, Colorado Rockies

Huston Street (shoulder) will start the season on the DL, giving Morales the chance to rack up some saves in the early going.

As a starter in the minors, the 24 year-old lefty whiffed a batter per inning but walked a whopping 5.2 batters per nine frames. At the Triple-A level, Morales had 7.3 K/9 and 6.1 BB/9 in 168.2 innings. Shifted to the bullpen in 2009, he posted a 4.72 xFIP with 9.23 K/9 and 5.18 BB/9 in 40 innings.

At this point, Morales tries to overpower hitters with 92-93 MPH heat while hoping for enough weak swings to compensate for a lack of secondary stuff and control. Morales’ fastball has been a plus pitch in the majors (+0.57 runs/100 pitches), and he gets plenty of swings and misses: his fastball had an 8.4 percent whiff rate last year, compared to the six percent MLB average. However, his low-70’s curveball (-1.13) and high-70’s changeup (-0.66) lag behind, and his first pitch strike percentage in the bigs is just 50.9 percent (58 percent MLB average).

Though he’s far from a finished product, Morales is well worth picking up in all formats.

Jeff Clement, Pittsburgh Pirates

Clement was once considered a franchise building block in Seattle as a catcher with ample lefty pop. Now, he’s a 26 year-old first baseman aspiring to be the next Adam LaRoche in Pittsburgh. Though he has struggled in limited major league playing time (.237/.309/.393 in 243 PA), Clement has a career .279/.368/.492 line at the Triple-A level.

Problem is, that’s yawn-inducing now that he has fallen down the defensive spectrum. CHONE and ZiPS both project a .265/.340/.460-type season for Clement in 2010. That’s not bad, but consider that the average MLB first baseman socked to the tune of a .277/.362/.483 triple-slash in 2009. Clement will open the year as Pittsburgh’s starting first baseman, and he could have a little value in NL-only leagues. But he’ll have to mash to keep his spot.

Tom Gorzelanny, Chicago Cubs

The former Pirates prospect looked cooked in 2008, but his stuff bounced back in ’09 as he pitched well in seven starts and 15 relief appearances (3.73 xFIP). Gorzo has punched out 8.6 batters per nine innings with 2.5 BB/9 in Triple-A, and both CHONE and ZiPS figure that he’ll be a handy starter for the Cubs in 2010:

CHONE: 7.39 K/9, 3.61 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 4.43 FIP
ZiPS: 7.25 K/9, 3.74 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 4.25 FIP

His rotation spot isn’t guaranteed once Ted Lilly returns, but Gorzelanny has the talent to remain in the starting five and provide value in NL-only leagues.

(Jason Heyward is an obvious candidate here, but we examined his fantasy value a few days ago.)

Russell Branyan, Cleveland Indians

The Three True Outcomes nomad will start the season on the DL with a herniated disk in his back. Branyan isn’t likely to match last year’s .368 wOBA with the M’s (most projection systems have him regressing to the .350 range), and a balky back won’t help his chances.

On a positive note, CC Sabathia trade goodies Michael Brantley (left field) and Matt LaPorta (first base) will open the year in the starting lineup. Brantley offers a keen eye and high-percentage base thievery (46 SB in 51 tries at Triple-A last year), and LaPorta can put a charge into the ball (career .266 ISO in the minors).

Dustin McGowan, Toronto Blue Jays

When healthy, McGowan has been a quality starter (career 4.28 xFIP). But the 28 year-old hasn’t tossed a major league pitch since July of 2008 following shoulder surgery. He was recently shut down, so it doesn’t look like McGowan is particularly close to pumping mid-90’s heat and upper-80’s breaking stuff like he used to.

Melky Cabrera, Atlanta Braves

Fantasy players aren’t going to cry over spilled Melky, not with Heyward getting a chance to shine in right field. But with the best hitting prospect in the game making the squad, Cabrera goes from a possible sleeper in NL-only leagues (CHONE projects a .358 wOBA) to a part-time player who will share left field with Matt Diaz.

Minnesota’s closer-by-committee

With Joe Nathan (Tommy John surgery) sidelined in 2010, Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire plans to enter 2010 with a closer-by-committee approach. That means Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares and Jesse Crain could all get a shot at the ninth. Any owner who drafted Nathan, watched his elbow go boom and then picked up Rauch looking to recoup some value is probably getting all twitchy while reading this.

Fresh off of the best season of his career, RHP Javier Vazquez is headed back to the Bronx as part of a five-player deal. Along with lefty Boone Logan, Vazquez has been traded to the Yankees for a package including RHP Arodys Vizcaino, LHP Michael Dunn and OF Melky Cabrera.

Later today, we’ll take a look at the implications of the trade for Vazquez. For now, let’s take a look at what the deal means for Cabrera.

The 25 year-old switch-hitter was signed by the Yankees out of the Dominican Republic back in 2001. Cabrera rapidly rose through the farm system, reaching the majors as a 20 year-old back in 2005. His career minor league line is .296/.349/.420. Melky didn’t show a lot of might at the plate (.124 ISO) and he swung from his heels, walking in 7.1 percent of his plate appearances. He rarely whiffed, with a 13.6 percent strikeout rate.

Getting regular playing time with the Yankees in 2006, Cabrera held up surprisingly well. His wRC+ was 101, meaning he was slightly above-average with the lumber once park and league factors are considered. Melky’s work in 2007 and 2008, by contrast, was disappointing. His wRC+ dipped to 91 in ’07 and checked in at a measly 71 in ’08. Cabrera’s plate discipline eroded:

2006: 10.9 BB%, 22.3 Outside-Swing%, 63.5 Z-Swing%
2007: 7.3 BB%, 29.5 O-Swing%, 65.8 Z-Swing%
2008: 6.5 BB%, 28.4 O-Swing%, 63.1 Z-Swing%

(the MLB average for O-Swing% is 25, and the average for Z-Swing% is about 66 percent)

Melky’s walk rate dropped considerably, as he offered at more pitches off the plate in ’07 and ’08. He was tentative against pitches within the zone in 2008, giving him the unwelcome double-whammy of swinging at more balls and taking more strikes.

Cabrera’s power remained mild: a .111 ISO in 2006, .117 in 2007 and a paltry .092 in 2008. Opposing pitchers bullied him with fastballs:

Cabrera’s Runs/100 Value against fastballs, 2006-2008

2006: +0.77
2007: -0.15
2008: -1.41

With big problems against heaters, Melky popped the ball up a ton in 2008. His infield/fly ball percentage was 15.3, 13th-highest among batters with 400+ PA.

Despite two stagnant seasons, Cabrera entered 2009 at 24 years old. While he didn’t drop any jaws this past year, he did reverse some of those troubling trends in the batter’s box.

In 540 PA, Cabrera posted a 102 wRC+. His walk rate didn’t bounce back to that 2006 level, but he drew a free pass 8.1% of the time. Melky’s O-Swing% was a league-average 24.9, and he took a cut at a few more pitches thrown over the plate (63.7 Z-Swing%). While not slamming fastballs (-0.02 runs per 100 pitches), Cabrera at least didn’t have the bat knocked out of his hands. His infield/fly ball rate fell to a more palatable 10.3%.

Cabrera also displayed a little more thump, with a .142 ISO and 13 home runs. He didn’t show much of a home/away platoon split. Though he’s not a huge stolen base threat, Cabrera did chip in 10 steals in 12 attempts.

In Atlanta, Cabrera figures to get a crack at the left field job. He has plenty of experience in center, but he has a career -5.9 UZR/150 in the middle pasture. Nate McLouth (career -7.1 UZR/150 in CF) hasn’t rated all that well either, though he did post a positive mark in 2009. Right field figures to be Jason Heyward’s domain for the next decade. Jordan Schafer shouldn’t be counted out, either.

Melky could be part of a platoon with righty-hitting Matt Diaz. Over the past four seasons, Cabrera has an 88 sOPS+ against righty pitching (12 percent worse than the league average) and a 75 sOPS+ against lefties (25 percent worse).

Of course, one could make the argument that the 32 year-old Diaz would be the better option regardless of which side the pitcher winds up from. Since 2006, Diaz has a 105 sOPS+ against righties and a 135 sOPS+ vs. southpaws. CHONE’s 2010 projections for the two are pretty even:.284/.349/.427 for Cabrera, .280/.340/.436 for Diaz.

While the 19 year-old Vizcaino has the most star potential of Atlanta’s trade goodies, Cabrera is basically an average hitter with some defensive chops in an outfield corner. He’s not terribly exciting, but Melky has some value as a guy with a few years of team control and perhaps some development time left. For Cabrera to be a fantasy option, however, he will have to take another step forward offensively.

Despite spending copious amounts of cash this offseason, the New York Yankees do enter spring training with a number of question marks at up-the-middle positions. Will Jorge Posada’s shoulder hold up? (and if not, do you really want Jose Molina and his career .270 wOBA getting regular duty?) Will Robinson Cano bounce back offensively and defensively? Can Derek Jeter stave off decline?

Perhaps the most unsettled aspect of all is the situation in center field. The Bronx Bombers received precious little from the position in 2008, receiving a combined .261/.320/.391 line (the average MLB CF hit .268/.333/.419). The main culprit, Melky Cabrera, will return to battle another farm product in Brett Gardner.

Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2001, Cabrera appeared in the majors at the age of 20, and has seen fairly regular playing time over the past three seasons. The problem is, the 24 year-old has declined at the plate in each of those three campaigns. Cabrera’s initial showing with the Yankees was actually quite impressive: as a 21 year old in 2006, he batted .280/.360/.391 with a .333 wOBA. A player that young showing that good of a grasp of the strike zone (10.9 BB%, 22.3 O-Swing% 12.8 K%) usually portends to better days down the road.

In 2007, however, Cabrera actually regressed. He slugged exactly .391 again, but is OBP fell over 30 points, down to .327. His wOBA, about league average in ’06, also dropped to .317. The switch-hitter showed less restraint at the dish, drawing walks at a 7.3% clip and swinging at 29.5% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone.

After an intriguing debut and a mildly disappointing follow-up season, Cabrera saw his production crater in 2008. The Melk-Man authored a grisly .285 wOBA, hitting .249/.301/.341. Some of that dip in performance can be explained by a lower-than-expected BABIP (.273). However, Cabrera once again drew fewer free passes (6.5%) and often fished for offerings out of the zone (28.4 O-Swing%).

Cabrera’s steady decline is confounding. It’s not very often that a player debuts at such a young age, shows a polished approach and then subsequently becomes more raw as the years go by. The Santo Domingo native also hasn’t done himself any favors with his glove work in center field. Cabrera has a career -9.8 UZR/150 in center (though he did manage a +0.9/150 rating in ’08). That might not affect his fantasy value, per se, but it does make the Yankees less apt to stick with him.

The main competition for Cabrera will come from Gardner. Selected out of Charleston in the 3rd round of the 2005 amateur draft, Gardner has used a discerning eye and blazing speed to climb the minor league ranks. The 5-10, 180 pounder has a career .389 OBP in the minors as well as an 83% success rate on the base paths. Fresh off a AAA season in which he hit .296/.414/.422, Gardner made his Yankees debut last summer, posting a .282 wOBA in 141 PA.

While Gardner’s OBP skills and speed might make him appear as an ideal catalyst, there are some concerns about how his game will translate to the major league level. He does work the count very well, but Gardner also swings and misses a good deal more than your average water bug player (about 23% over the past two seasons in AAA). The 25 year-old also possesses very little pop, with a .126 ISO at AAA in ’08 and an even lower .094 career mark in the minors.

Gardner’s combination of skills (good eye, higher K rates, little power) is a tough one to project- it’s possible that some of those walks will dry up in the big leagues (think Michael Bourn), as pitchers are less likely to pitch Gardner so cautiously. Why not challenge him, if the worst possible outcome upon contact is a single? Pitchers did challenge the lefty during his initial big league action, as Gardner saw a fastball nearly 71% of the time.

Of course, both Cabrera and Gardner could just be keeping the CF seat warm for someone else. Austin Jackson, 22, is one of New York’s most well-regarded prospects. An 8th round selection in the 2005 draft, Jackson is coming off of a solid showing at AA (.285/.354/.419) and possesses an interesting blend of skills. The 6-1, 185 pounder doesn’t have one particular talent that jumps out at you, but he works the count decently, has gradually shown a little more power at each minor league stop and can swipe some bases as well.

Whether Cabrera or Gardner can hold onto the job long-term remains to be seen, but the Yankees need someone to solidify the position in 2009. In an AL East division that figures to be fiercely competitive (PECOTA projects 90+ wins for Boston, New York and Tampa), the Bombers can ill-afford to have a black hole in center.