Archive for Matt Lindstrom

As a Colorado Rockie, Matt Lindstrom was persona non grata in fantasy circles entering the 2012 season. Stuck behind Rafael Betancourt, Matt Belisle and Rex Brothers, Lindstrom had about as much chance of racking up saves as the squirrel that presumably inhabits Todd Helton’s beard. But Lindstrom’s hopes of closing out games perked up on Monday, as he was traded to the Orioles along with Jason Hammel in exchange for Jeremy Guthrie. While he will likely take a back seat to Jim Johnson initially, Lindstrom’s improved control and Baltimore’s lack of ‘pen depth make him worth monitoring.

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Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Aaron Harang – Since winning 16 games in 2007, Harang has gone 6-17, 6-14 and is now off to a 1-3 start in 2010. His K/9 has fallen a full point over last season and his WHIP is an ugly 1.59, which is tied for 16th-worse in baseball. But Harang is suffering from the one-two punch of a .352 BABIP and a 59.6 LOB%. And to make matters worse, he has a 20 percent HR/FB rate. On the plus side, Harang is getting more ground balls than he has since 2004 and his K/BB ratio remains a very nice 3.00 despite the drop in strikeouts. Harang’s velocity is a tick better than last year but he is having some problems with his curve. An improvement with his breaking ball, combined with regression in his BABIP and LOB%, could make Harang a valuable pitcher the rest of the way.

Matt Lindstrom – Not many people viewed Lindstrom as a good bet at closer, coming off a 2009 season where he lost that job twice while a member of the Marlins. To make matters worse, the Astros had a viable alternative available in Brandon Lyon. But all Lindstrom has done this year is to be lights out in his nine games. His fastball velocity is down and he is throwing his slider more often. And with that he has 10 Ks and 1 BB in 9 IP. Lindstrom is getting a career-best 33.3 O-Swing% and has a personal best 48.1 GB%. Ideally, owners would have traded for Lindstrom while the Astros were losing every game at the beginning of the season. But it is still worth checking to see what the asking price is on a pitcher who looks primed to have a dominating season.

Brian McCann – His AVG is down 31 points and his SLG is 57 points beneath his final 2009 numbers. Pitchers are treating McCann with extra care, as Martin Prado is the only Braves player currently riding a hot streak in the season’s first month. McCann carries a career-best 21.6 BB%, which is tied with Josh Willingham for the sixth-best mark in the majors. But McCann has been unlucky with a .240 BABIP. And historically, April has not been the best month for him. McCann has a .271 lifetime AVG in April and an .829 OPS. In May those numbers are .350 and .976, respectively.

SELL

Robinson Cano – An unbelievably hot start for Cano has caused the hype machine to go into overdrive, as evidenced by this story, where Reggie Jackson said the Yankees second baseman would be recognized as the best in the American League and ready to take on Chase Utley by the end of the season. While Cano has usually had an above-average BABIP, his current mark of .390 cannot last. Additionally, his .292 ISO is nearly 100 points above his personal best. Cano is likely to be one of the top players at his position at the end of the year, but now is a great time to see if you can cash in on his value. His ADPs put him at the end of the fourth round coming into the season and he currently has delivered first-round production.

Adam Jones – A breakout season last year made Jones a favorite of many fantasy players. This year he is off to a slow start, thanks to a .242 BABIP. But his ISO of .178 is nearly identical to last year’s .180 mark. Updated ZiPS shows him beating last year’s marks in HR, R and RBIs while tying his production in SB. But I am pessimistic about Jones reaching that forecast. His BB rate has collapsed from bad to atrocious, his HR/FB rate has regressed significantly from last year’s 17.8 mark and his 38.9 O-Swing% is tied for the 10th-worst mark in baseball.

Mike Pelfrey – One of the feel-good stories for the first-place Mets has been the production of Pelfrey, who is 4-0 with a 0.69 ERA. In the process, he’s gone from being owned in 25 percent of CBS Sports leagues on Opening Day to 86 percent currently. But by xFIP, Pelfrey is essentially pitching the same as he did last year, when he had a 5.03 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. Yes, he is throwing strikes and adding more pitches to his arsenal. But he also has a .249 BABIP, a 93.6 strand rate and has yet to give up a home run. Trade him before regression hits.

HUNCH

John Maine – As good as Pelfrey has been for the Mets this season, Maine has been every bit as bad. Both his FIP and xFIP are over 6.00, his BB/9 are up to an unacceptable 5.40 and his velocity is down two miles per hour on his average fastball. But I like Maine’s chances to turn things around. He has been able to throw his slider nearly 20 percent of the time. If he can regain the velocity on his fastball he can return to being the pitcher he was during his 15-win 2007 season. Maine had to leave his last start early, due to muscle spasms in his non-throwing arm. He has been cleared to pitch, and is scheduled to take the mound this afternoon, in just under an hour from when I write this. Make me look good, Maine!

After trading for Matt Lindstrom earlier in the day, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com is reporting the Astros have signed reliever Brandon Lyon to a deal.

When I wrote about Lindstrom’s signing, I said this regarding the Astros’ late inning options:

In Houston, Lindstrom looks to be the closer, as of now. The Astros have expressed interest in bringing back Jose Valverde, but if they have another closer option that scenario looks less likely.

Well, it looks like you can count on Valverde signing elsewhere this offseason.

Lyon is now likely to be the closer in Houston, pushing Lindstrom to a setup role for the Astros. Lyon’s last stint as a closer was with Arizona in 2008, and it didn’t exactly go well. In 59.1 innings, Lyon saved 26 games in 31 chances. He ended the year with an ERA of 4.70 and a WHIP of 1.48, to go along with 44 strikeouts and a 3.84 FIP (4.10 xFIP).

After the 2008 season, Lyon signed with Detroit as a free agent, and spent the year setting up games for Fernando Rodney. Lyon made himself look better as a Tiger, pitching 78.2 innings in 2009 and ending the year with an ERA of 2.86. However, his walk rate rose (from 1.97 to 3.55 BB/9) and his strikeout rate stayed the same. His FIP on the year was 4.06, with an xFIP of 4.24.

With a sub-par strikeout rate and higher walk rate, Lyon is a tough own even if he is getting save chances. His ERA is likely to rise closer to his career line of 4.20, with a WHIP near 1.40. He should be able to get ~30 saves in Houston, but is still a lower tier closer. I was more excited about Lindstrom getting save opportunities, but Lyon is a bit of a safer draft pick next year.

According to Peter Gammons of ESPN, the Houston Astros have acquired reliever Matt Lindstrom from the Florida Marlins.

After Kevin Gregg was dealt to the Cubs last year, Lindstrom started the 2009 season as the Marlins closer. In 54 games with the Marlins last season, Lindstrom recorded 15 saves in 17 chances. He posted a 5.89 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and 39 strikeouts in 47.1 innings. Lindstrom missed 38 days from late June to early August after suffering a right elbow strain.

After going on the disabled list, Lindstrom returned to the Marlins only to find Leo Nunez occupying the closers role. Lindstrom only had one save opportunity in August and September, and he converted it. Seeing that Nunez was good enough to close for them and Lindstrom was eligible for arbitration, the Marlins made the decision to deal him to save some money.

Lindstrom is one of those guys I have always liked, even though the numbers tell me I shouldn’t. It must be his sexy fastball, which clocks in at an average 96.6 MPH. Lindstrom also throws a slider, and a rare splitter.

In Houston, Lindstrom looks to be the closer, as of now. The Astros have expressed interest in bringing back Jose Valverde, but if they have another closer option that scenario looks less likely. If Lindstrom gets the first shot at closing and runs with it, expect 25+ saves with an ERA over 4.30. and a WHIP close to 1.50. These numbers aren’t spectacular, but Lindstrom provides solid strikeouts (7.42 K/9 last year), so he is ownable as a lower tier closer.

In Florida, Nunez seems to have the hold on the closers job going into next season. He saved 26 games in 33 chances, striking out 60 batters in 68.2 innings in 2009. He is a lower tier closer like Lindstrom, but I would rather have Nunez on my fantasy squad than Lindstrom.

All 30 teams are in action this evening as interleague play wraps up. How about some links?

MVN’s MLBOutsider takes a closer look at the Nationals’ Jordan Zimmermann, who has a 1.99 ERA and 22/6 K/BB ratio over his past four starts. He obviously doesn’t carry much win potential, but he’s been missing a lot of bats (8.9 K/9) without a great dip in control (2.6 BB/9). Mixed leaguers starving for strikeouts might as well give him a try. He is owned in just 13 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Alex Geshwind of FantasyBullpen.com lists his “second half starting pitching targets,” calling Francisco Liriano the “ultimate risk reward” and Randy Johnson a “decent buy low candidate.” Geshwind also takes note of Jorge De La Rosa’s 9.8 K/9 and 3.46 BABIP.

RotoRob’s “Daily Dump” is the Orioles’ Luke Scott, who is stuck in a 3-for-22 rut and has a .699 OPS in the month of June. He’s shown a good display of power this season (14 home runs in 184 at-bats) and has at times murdered left-handed pitching, but he’s not helping mixed leaguers.

Knox Bardeen of AOL Fanhouse advises us to stay away from the “Homer Train.” He, of course, is referring to the Reds’ Homer Bailey, who will be called on to start Saturday against the Indians. The 23-year-old is 4-0 with a 0.47 ERA and 38/7 K/BB ratio in his last five starts for Triple-A Louisville, but he’s had trouble parlaying any kind of success into the major leagues during the course of his career. There’s some hope that this time will be different, due in large part to a new split-finger fastball.

Brad Berreman of MVN’s MLBOutsider has a look at the Marlins’ bullpen situation. With Matt Lindstrom hitting the disabled list, the Fish have said they intend to use a closer-by-committee strategy. That doesn’t always last. Perhaps Leo Nunez or Dan Meyer will emerge as the club’s official ninth-inning hurler.

Rotoworld’s Mark St. Amant presents his “Risers” and “Fallers.” He even gives a little credit to David Ortiz, who is putting together a nice June after opening the season in a massive slump.

Have a link, question or comment? I’m all ears. Shoot me an e-mail or come join me on Twitter.

Matt Lindstrom can throw a baseball 100 miles per hour. And if that was not good enough, the Marlins traded Kevin Gregg in the off-season, clearing the closer’s job for Lindstrom. With Logan Kensing and Scott Proctor as his main competition, it appears Lindstrom should be the team’s closer on Opening Day. So, why isn’t there more excitement surround Lindstrom? He does not crack the top 200 in early ADP reports.

Last year, Lindstrom’s walk rate was less than good. He suffered through a minor back injury and spent some time in the minors. But when he was with the Marlins, he posted a 4.08 BB/9 which led to a 1.45 WHIP. His previous track record with walks is spotty. Lindstrom was very good with the Marlins in 2007, with a 2.82 BB/9, but his minor league record shows seasons in line with 2008.

Gregg notched 61 saves for the Marlins over the past two seasons with a walk rate similar to Lindstrom’s mark last season. But let’s not get bogged down with his walks. In addition to his velocity, Lindstrom is also a groundball pitcher. His GB/FB ratio last year was 1.54, which led to a microscopic 0.16 HR/9, the fourth-lowest total among relievers. Some might think that he’s in for a major regression but in 2007 his HR/9 checked in at 0.27 for the year.

The combination of a top-notch fastball, lots of ground balls and very few home runs allowed is an attractive one for a potential closer. One thing to be wary of is that Lindstrom has agreed to pitch for the U.S. in the WBC. Instead of spending Spring Training refining his slider and firmly establishing himself as the team’s closer, Lindstrom will be setting up Joe Nathan, Brian Fuentes, Jonathan Broxton and others.

While that is a concern, it should not override a guy with an excellent shot of posting 30+ saves with solid strikeout numbers. In his two years in the majors, Lindstrom has a 7.60 K/9 rate. That’s a nice combo for a guy going in the lower 20 percent of mock drafts currently.