Archive for Matt Garza

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 13.

Nick Blackburn – April was not kind to Blackburn and he had a 5.14 ERA at the end of the first month of the season. Since then, he is 5-1 with a 2.35 ERA in his last 10 games, with eight Quality Starts in that span. With a poor K rate, Blackburn is always walking a tightrope. But he’s keeping runners off base (2.51 BB/9, .276 BABIP) and his 1.11 HR/9 is a tick below his career average. This week he gets two home starts, where he has a 2.40 ERA this season. Get him into your lineup.

R.A. Dickey – There was a lot of skepticism around Dickey after his breakout year last season at age 35. Now he sits with a 3-7 record and an ERA nearly a run higher than a year ago and the skeptics seem right. However, if it wasn’t for bad luck, Dickey seemingly would have no luck at all. In his last seven starts, he has a 2.23 ERA with a 3.08 K/BB ratio and a 7.51 K/9 yet only has two wins in that stretch. He could have six wins in that time with better fortune. Dickey has been pitching well and while the matchups are not overly favorable (@ DET, NYY) he still makes an excellent streaming option this week.

Matt Garza – The switch to the National League agreed with Garza, who fanned 68 batters in 55.2 IP in his first nine games with the Cubs. But tightness in his elbow landed Garza on the DL and he has not been the same pitcher since his return. In four starts since being activated, Garza has 14 Ks in 21 IP, has allowed 4 HR and has a 5.14 ERA. He faces two good HR teams in COL and CHW and if the wind is blowing out in Wrigley it could get ugly. Give him a spot on the bench this week if you have the depth.

Kyle Lohse – Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. A veteran Cardinals pitcher trades a bunch of four-seam fastballs for two-seamers, improves his walk rate and turns in a fine season. This year it’s Lohse’s turn to play this role and the results have been impressive. His fastball, which has been a double-digit negative in linear weights the past four years, now checks in as a 2.0 wFB. And his BB/9, which was 3.40 last year, now sits at 1.63, the fifth-best mark in the majors.

But the league seems to be catching on to Lohse’s new act. After opening the year at 7-2, 2.14 ERA he is 0-2 with a 5.47 ERA in his last four starts. He’s also allowed 7 HR in 24.2 IP this month. Lohse has road starts in two AL parks this week. While he has pitched quite well on the road overall this year (5-1, 2.70 ERA), this still seems like a good time to give him the week off.

Ryan Vogelsong – Fantasy owners have been adding Vogelsong in droves over the past six weeks. And who can blame them, as he has a 5-1 record with a 1.86 ERA this season. Plus, his only loss of the year came in a game where he allowed 1 ER in 8 IP. Vogelsong has improved across the board in 2011. He’s added two-thirds of a strikeout to his lifetime K/9 rate and is closing in on cutting his BB/9 and HR/9 in half.

But he has a .260 BABIP and an 85.8 LOB% and a 5.1 HR/FB rate, which gives us a 3.40 xFIP. While that is a strong mark, it’s significantly above his 1.86 ERA. Also, Vogelsong has a big home/road split. At AT&T park (which has a 0.552 HR factor this year according to ESPN) he is 3-1 with a 1.01 ERA. On the road Vogelsong has a 3.21 ERA. With two road starts this week, give him the week off.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 13 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lee, Beckett, Greinke, Kennedy, Wilson, Chacin, G. Gonzalez, Cueto, Scherzer, Bedard, Hellickson, Latos, Billingsley, E. Santana, Britton, Correia, Beachy, Porcello, Marquis, F. Garcia, Lannan, Hammel, Vazquez, Lyles, Francis, Reyes, Stewart, Talbot, Davis.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 11 pitchers and how they fared.

Arroyo – Advised to sit. 2 W, 11 Ks, 2.87 ERA, 0.766 WHIP, 13.1 IP, 1 ER
Britton – Advised to sit. 4 Ks, 1.80 ERA, 1.400 WHIP, 5 IP, ER
Collmenter – Advised to start. 9 Ks, 6.00 ERA, 1.417 WHIP, 12 IP, 8 ER
Masterson – Advised to sit. 9 Ks, 3.18 ERA, 1.765 WHIP, 11.1 IP, 4 ER
Pavano – Advised to start. W, 5 Ks, 1.00 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 9 IP, ER

Today’s look at NL Starting Pitchers is nutrient dense.

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Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 7.

Jon Garland – After getting roughed up in his first start of the season, Garland has hurled four straight Quality Starts. One thing especially interesting about Garland this year is his batted ball profile. Typically a ground ball pitcher, Garland set a career-high with a 51.9 GB% last year. After five games in 2011, he has a career-low 36.8 GB%. Yet his HR/9 of 1.13 is essentially his career average. He has a home start against the Brewers and then goes on the road for his first start in U.S. Cellular since leaving the White Sox after the 2007 season. The Brewers are less potent on the road (.609 OPS) than they are at home (.852 OPS) and the White Sox are a below-average offensive team this year, so see if Garland is available in your league to stream this week.

Matt Garza – The overall fantasy numbers (strikeouts excepted) are nothing special for Garza this year but he has been pitching much better than his record shows. His xFIP is two full runs lower than his ERA and his FIP is even better. In his last five games, Garza has four Quality Starts and a 2.90 ERA. The matchups are not overly favorable to Garza this week, with two road starts, including one in an AL park, but he has been pitching well so do not be afraid to put him in your lineup this week.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Fantasy leaguers still consider Jimenez a must-start after last year’s sterling performance. But the truth is that Jimenez has not been good so far in 2011. It looked like he might be finally turning the corner with his start against the Giants in the first week in May but then he failed to get out of the fourth inning last time out against the Mets. His K/9 is better than last season and his BABIP is virtually identical to 2010. But Jimenez has a 6.67 BB/9 and is being victimized by the long ball, with 4 HR in 29.2 IP. He needs a spot on your bench until he shows something more.

Rick Porcello – The beginning of 2011 looked ugly for Porcello, who allowed 10 ER in 10 IP, with 4 BB and 6 Ks. But since then he’s yet to allow more than 2 ER in a start and has a 3.0 K/BB ratio, with 21 Ks in 31.2 IP. His FIP and xFIP are both close to his actual ERA of 3.67. Porcello is throwing more changeups this year but otherwise appears the same pitcher he’s typically been. It’s just that the results are better. With one home start and an Interleague game in Pittsburgh, the matchups are decent enough for him this week, so get him in your lineup.

Edinson Volquez – First off, if you have not already read it, immediately check out Cistulli’s piece on Volquez, which helps explain why a guy with great stuff is getting horrible results. Unfortunately, while there may be some reason for optimism for Volquez, it’s hard to get excited about a guy with a walk rate that high. Combine it with an elevated HR rate and it adds up to a guy who should be on your bench at this point in time.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 7 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

F. Hernandez, Lee, Hanson, Price, Johnson, J. Garcia, Cain, Shields, Marcum, Masterson, G. Gonzalez, Anderson, Burnett, Nolasco, J. Sanchez, D. Hudson, Kuroda, Britton, Lewis, W. Rodriguez, Jackson, Lowe, Baker, Myers, Bailey, Stauffer, Zimmermann, Wolf, Duensing, Drabek, Lackey, Pineiro, Oswalt, Nova, Harrison, Pelfrey, Richard, Matsuzaka, Morton, Niese, Vargas, Westbrook, Coke, Litsch, Chatwood, Maholm, Lannan, Carrasco, Tillman, Galarraga, O’Sullivan, Mazzaro, Coleman, Mortensen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 5 pitchers and how they fared.

Dickey – Advised to start. 4 Ks, 6.23 ERA, 1.539 WHIP, 13 IP, 9 ER
Hernandez – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 7.94 ERA, 2.118 WHIP, 11.1 IP, 10 ER
Jurrjens – Advised to start. 2 W, 6 Ks, 1.93 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 14 IP, 3 ER
Leake – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 17.18 ERA, 2.182 WHIP, 3.2 IP, 7 ER
Tomlin – Advised to sit. 5 Ks, 2.35 ERA, 0.391 WHIP, 7.2 IP, 2 ER

Before we get to today’s results, I thought I’d ask you if you’d please leave your suggestions for future ADP Crowdsourcings in the comments below. Thank you.

Matt Garza (xADP, You)
My vote: 8, 10
Average: 9.7, 11.7
Median: 10, 12
Std Dev: 2.9, 4.3

While we may not have perfectly agreed on where Garza is going to be drafted, or even when we would be willing to take him, we did agree on one thing: Garza is going to be overvalued and taken about two rounds before we would be willing to pull the trigger. I think the perception of his move out of the AL East and into the National League will help propel his ADP, but I could very well be wrong. I always find it interesting to look at these results, because – at least in this case – it can make you realize that most of us aren’t expecting to have Garza on our rosters in 2011, which is a strange thought to have echoed throughout the sample.

Jeremy Hellickson (xADP, You)
My vote: 15, 13
Average: 13.3, 12.3
Median: 13, 12
Std Dev: 4.2, 4.1

Trying to pinpoint a prospect’s numbers are tough enough, let along trying to accurately predict where they will be drafted. However, you guys had a pretty good idea when it came to Hellickson, even if I thought he’d be taken a little later. To be fair, my thinking may be biased based on what I’ve seen in “expert” mock drafts, and I’m going to put my faith in you guys. While I would be willing to take Hellickson in the 13th round, my projections don’t indicate that he’ll be worth that pick. But, when you can get a young stud like Hellickson who has the chance to be great, it’s worth the risk. I have a feeling this may be the sentiment for a good number of owners, as it seems some weigh pure upside far more than others.

Please leave your suggestions for future ADP Crowdsourcings in the comments below. Thank you.

In this week’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, we take a look at two players who will be affected by Matt Garza trade to the Cubs. Today we start with Garza himself, and are using rounds as our unit once again.

If you just watched Garza throw in a bullpen session, you may have reason to believe that he is a legitimate MLB and fantasy ace. However, you wouldn’t have much reason to believe that if you just looked at his numbers from the past three seasons in Tampa Bay. Garza is one of those starters who has good velocity on his fastball, and despite a fantastic slider, is unable to strike out as many batters as he probably should. Garza’s age-25 season in 2009 gave everyone plenty of hope, and his strikeout rate crept over the 8.0 per nine innings mark. But he returned to normal in 2010, striking out only 6.6 batter every nine innings.

Garza has become an extreme fly-ball pitcher over the past few years, and despite Tropicana Fields’ park factors, his home run rate is usually below average. Wrigley Field is not as forgiving, especially against left-handed hitters, so Garza could end up getting himself in a little bit of trouble this upcoming season. However, facing a pitcher or pinch-hitter instead of a DH and leaving the AL East should help mitigate his potential home run problems.

We are still voting on where you think Garza will be drafted by the average owner, but we’re going to take it a step further. We are also going to vote on where you would draft him, as well. Also, please note we are using round, not pick this time because of Garza’s likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Dan Haren – One of the top 10 pitchers off the board in most fantasy drafts, Haren has produced a -$3 fantasy value this year according to Last Player Picked. On top of that, Haren is known as a first-half pitcher, as his ERA is nearly a full run higher after the All-Star break and his WHIP goes from 1.085 to 1.316 in the second half of the year. But Haren has been one of the unluckier pitchers around, with a .342 BABIP and a 17.0 HR/FB rate. His GB/FB ratio is nearly identical to where it was a year ago and Haren’s K/BB ratio of 5.53 is the second-best mark in baseball.

Juan Rivera – His ownership rate in CBS Sports leagues has declined from 77 percent on Opening Day to just 45% this week. Rivera got off to a slow start in April and did even worse in May. But Rivera had just a .203 BABIP last month. With Kendry Morales on the shelf, there are no worries about Rivera not getting the playing time to work out of his slump. He is likely available for little cost and could provide a nice HR bump going forward. And with a little better luck on balls in play he could prove not to be an anchor in AVG, either.

David Wright – Current owners may look at his .353 BABIP and .269 AVG and decide that Wright is no longer an elite fantasy player. Certainly, the 35.5 K% is troubling to everyone. But Wright’s HR power is back from its 2009 vacation, as his 16.4 HR/FB mark is nearly 10 percent higher from a year ago and right in line with the numbers he produced from 2004-2008. (U) ZiPS sees him getting the same 27 SB he did a season ago. So the big question is: How will Wright do in AVG here on out? A plethora of Ks killed his AVG through most of May, but Wright seems to be getting on track recently. In the tiny sample of eight games, Wright has 6 Ks in 29 ABs and a .310/.382/.517 slash line. In his previous 21 games, Wright fanned in 34 of his 80 ABs and posted a .250 AVG. If Wright can keep his strikeouts down to his career level of 20.9 percent, he is a good bet to challenge for .300 going forward.

SELL

Elvis Andrus – Despite a .267 AVG last year, Andrus excited fantasy players with his ability to steal bases. (U) ZiPS shows him finishing the 2010 season with 43 SB, which would top all of the preseason projections for him. Andrus is also projected to smash the preseason predicitions with 92 R, thanks in part to his move to the top of the order. But now is the time to sell high on the Rangers’ shortstop. His .380 BABIP screams regression. (R) ZiPS sees a .318 mark here on out and even that might be optimistic. As a GB hitter with good speed who can hit line drives, Andrus profiles as a player who would post a high BABIP. But last year he had a .305 mark in 541 PA.

Matt Garza – A four-category contributor on the first-place Rays, Garza is ready to challenge for career-bests in each fantasy category. But his K/9 is down from 8.38 a year ago to 7.11, his GB/FB ratio is a career-low 0.84 and he has a .266 BABIP. Garza has consistently posted low HR rates, so his FIP might be a better marker than xFIP, but both of those metrics are a full run above his current 3.08 ERA.

Andy Pettitte – The Yankees ace just keeps rolling along and is on pace for a 20-win season for the first time since 2003. But (R) ZiPS sees his production from here on out falling off significantly. And given Pettitte’s age (38 in June), xFIP (4.09) and injury concern, that projection should be taken seriously. Pettitte missed a start in early May due to elbow inflammation. In four starts since returning, he has a 3.08 ERA and a 4.85 K/9.

HUNCH

Torii Hunter – Last season Hunter was enjoying a career year before ending up on the DL with a groin injury which cost him 39 games. This year Hunter got off to a solid start in April but scuffled in May. After pounding fastballs last year, Hunter is below-average against them this season. I like Hunter to recapture the magic from last year and exceed his (U) ZiPS projection of .278-21-83-77-12.

Let’s take a look at our third group of fifteen starters, the SP3 tier. Predictably, by the time you are looking at your third or fourth fantasy pitcher, the candidates begin to thin out and the valuations of the players vary wildly. Consider that this tier goes all the way from Matt Garza (119.67 ADP) down to Wade Davis (306.98). One is a pitcher on the rise with plenty of reasons to for a fantasy manager to get excited, and the other is a youngster just battling for a spot on the roster. Let’s focus on two pitchers that stretch the range and might provide good return on your investment.

Scott Baker (148.34 ADP) is currently a relatively cheap pitcher, going in about the twelfth round of a twelve-team mixed league. You can denigrate his lack of strikeouts (6.88 K/9 career), but there are plenty of other things to like about this young man. Take his walk rate (2.05 BB/9 career), for example. It’s been virtually identical over the past two years, even (2.19 in 2008, 2.16 in 2009), so he’s got that going for him. If you’re looking for flaws, he’s certainly a fly ball pitcher (33.7% GB, 45.4% FB career) and he’s had troubles with the home run (see last year’s 1.26 HR/9) that have inflated his ERA from time to time. Those that follow the Twins might have heard this record before (see: Kevin Slowey).

It’s a little worrisome that he’s moving to a new park, but at least one person thinks will play as a pitcher’s park (AL Petco!). Either way, if the park plays at all similarly to the Mall of America Field, which played between a 1.11 and .896 park factor for home runs over the past three years, he should actually be in for some regression in the home run department. That regression could even get him back to his excellent 2008 levels. (A note: all but nine parks played within that range last year, so it’s likely that Target Field will, too. Also, climate and altitude, not explicitly covered in the above study, are a big part of how a park plays. Those should be similar in the new park.) He still limits walks, he still has a good fastball/slider combo, and he’s still getting batters to reach on 30+% of his pitches outside the zone. The possibility of a high-threes ERA and low 1.2s WHIP is worth a 12th round pick.

It’s not often that a pitcher improves his underlying statistics and loses ground in his more visible numbers, but Gavin Floyd (185.06) pulled off that feat from 2008 to 2009. Here is the full list of component statistics that Floyd improved: strikeout rate, walk rate, home runs per nine, ground ball rate, fly ball rate, O-Swing rate, and contact rate. You got that? And yet somehow, his ERA went up to 4.06 from 3.84 – mostly because his BABIP normalized (from .268 in 2008 to .292 last year). Since his ‘luck’ stats were about where they should have been last year, most of the projection systems say that Floyd will repeat his year, perhaps with a little ERA inflation due to the difference between last year’s nice home run rate (.98 HR/9) and his career number in that category (1.37).

Here’s one thing, though: Floyd has not yet figured out the optimal mix of his pitches. His fastball is not a great pitch (-46.3 runs for his career), and so he’s using it less (47.8% last year, down from 66.7% in 2006). For the last three years, the pitch has begun to find a niche around the scratch level (-4.9 runs last year), and his other pitches have zoomed forward in productivity as he has relied on them. His slider (+7.5 runs) and curveball (+14.1 runs) both hit career highs last year. Even though Floyd threw his fastball ninth-least in the majors last year, he could throw it less (!) since he once threw his curveball regularly over 20% of the time before settling in around 18%. The point isn’t to say that Floyd will throw the fastball less and the curveball more and succeed – the point is that he’s a pitcher available in the fifteenth round that has a floor around the low fours in ERA, should put up a WHIP lower than 1.3, and is not finished figuring out the optimal mix of his pitches. There’s value there, no?

Fellow Rays pitcher James Shields may have the nickname “Big Game James,” but Matt Garza is more deserving of the moniker, having absolutely dominated the Red Sox in game seven of the ALCS. Garza’s impressive performance capped an amazing mid-season turnaround, and suggests that he could be on the brink of stardom.

Let’s go back to June 8. Catcher Dioner Navarro visited Garza on the mound during his start in Texas, and the two men began shouting at each other. The altercation continued in the dugout after Garza was removed. He didn’t pitch well that day, and he left the start with a 4.38. However, he had actually been a lot worse than his ERA suggested: in 61 innings to that point, he had an abysmal 34/25 K/BB ratio and had allowed eight homers. He had thrown 60.5% of his pitches for strikes and had gotten swinging strikes on 5.7% of his pitches.

But then something changed.

Notably, Garza saw sported psychologist Ken Ravizza after the game (and later credited him in an interview after game seven of the ALCS). And the results were hard to argue with.

Since June 8, Garza pitched 123 innings (not including the playoffs), and posted a 3.37 ERA – a full run lower than his previous ERA. But remember, Garza’s previous ERA had been unjustly low. Since June 7, though, Garza was legitimately excellent: he posted a 94/34 K/BB ratio while allowing 11 homers. He threw 64.4% of his pitches for strikes, and induced swinging strikes on 8.6% of his pitches. Furthermore, Garza didn’t benefit from a tremendous amount of luck: he allowed a .271 BABIP during this time (low, but remember: the Rays had one of the best defenses in the league), and he allowed 7.7% of his fly balls to become homers.

While his homer rate my rise somewhat (league average is somewhere around 11%), it’s not unreasonable to assume that Garza is likely to maintain his post-June 8 success in 2009. He proved he could handle the big stage at Fenway Park, and he proved he could pitch very well during the last three-and-a-half months of the regular season.

We shall see if he can pitch well over an entire season, but it’s not unreasonable to expect an ERA below 3.50, coupled with ~170 strikeouts and 15-20 wins next season. And, given just how good Garza’s stuff is (anyone who doesn’t realize how good his stuff is should go watch game seven again) – as well as the fact that the Rays should once again have an excellent defense and be one of the league’s best teams – it’s conceivable that Garza could develop further and become a true fantasy ace.