Archive for Marco Scutaro

While fantasy baseball doesn’t pretend to fully reflect on-the-field value for individual players, there’s always a strange disconnect when a player objectively compiles a quality season and it’s not captured in standard fantasy formats. Often, that difference can be ascribed to defensive value, which is not accounted for in fantasy, but occasionally, a player pops up who provides solid offensive value for their team yet is marginally useful in fantasy.

This year, Marco Scutaro of the San Francisco is a perfect example of the value disconnect.

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Between the rash of injuries and the flurry of trades we’re seeing right now, your league’s waiver wire should be a hotbed of action. It may or may not be depending on how many owners in your league have given up and turned their attention to the upcoming fantasy football season, but if you’re in a heated competition with just the two months remaining on the baseball season, then you should be keeping up to date with any player that is starting to sniff some regular playing time and can contribute to your cause. Here are two that may help you out…

Casper Wells, SEA  |OF|  Ownership:  ESPN – 14.5%  Yahoo – 5.0%

In the wake of the Ichiro Suzuki trade and the demotion of Justin Smoak, the Mariners appear to be going with Wells and Carlos Peguero in the corner outfield spots with recent call-up Mike Carp likely taking over first base duties.  All three are in line to receive major increases in playing time, but Wells, seems to be the most seasoned of the three and likely the one to play with the most consistency.  Sure, people will talk about Peguero’s power potential, but I look at his strikeouts and see a guy who could do more harm than good to your team.  Carp has some promise, but given the shoulder concerns and the weak numbers he showed in Triple-A this season, Wells might just be the safer bet here for some added power.

There are definitely some flaws in Wells’ game right now between the low contact rates and the excessively high SwStr%, but he’s never had a full-time job before and a lot of his impatience at the plate could be him trying to do too much because he feels like he has a limited number of at-bats to prove his worth.  That’s likely true to some extent, but now, in a situation like this where the Mariners are folding up their tents for the season, there’s little or no reason for him to put excessive pressure on himself.  It’s not that he can just coast the rest of the way, but he can certainly take some time to relax at the plate and get back to the basics.  With ISO numbers so strong at every level, there’s no question that the power is for real.  With a full-time job for two months and little or no pressure, Wells finally has the opportunity to blossom and show what he can do.

Josh Rutledge, COL  |SS|  Ownership:  ESPN – 13.4%  Yahoo – 8.0%

With so much still up in the air regarding Troy Tulowitzki’s return, Rutledge is looking like a solid pick-up if you need help in your middle infield.  Tulo insists that he will be back at some point in August, but as it stands right now, he hasn’t even picked up a bat yet.  Rutledge has filled in admirably recently and over a quick 10-game span, has his .368 with six runs scored, one home run, six RBI and three stolen bases.  His .382 BABIP is pretty inflated, but in looking at his recent minor league totals, he’s routinely posted high BABIP totals.  If he can continue to make strong contact and keep the ball in play like this, the hits should continue to fall.  True the sample size is small, but we’re also now dealing with a two month long season not six.  Short-term help can be quite beneficial, especially if the guy can get on-base regularly and can kick in with some speed.

But there’s also the chance that Rutledge sticks even when Tulo makes it back, so long as he’s playing well.  It’s not like Jordan Pacheco is tearing it up at the plate and the Rockies have made the rest of the league well aware that Marco Scutaro is available.  If Scutaro goes, then Rutledge can slide over to the keystone once Tulo returns or, if he doesn’t, then perhaps he gets a chance to play some third.  He’s an interesting choice for the short term and could easily pan out to be a full-time guy over the next two months.

Today’s Roto Riteup isn’t nearly as exciting as FanGraphs: The Game, which you should totally acquaint yourself with.

–  Baseball starts tomorrow morning! Can you believe it? Don’t forget to set your lineups in anticipation of the Seattle Mariners’ matchup against the Oakland A’s in Japan.

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– With Jed Lowrie ready to return from the disabled list, it appears that he and Marco Scutaro with split time at shortstop for the mighty Boston Red Sox. With that lineup, it may not matter to Boston who ends up in the starting lineup, but this is a big blow for fantasy owners. Heading into the season, I had a hard time projecting numbers for both of the Boston infielders due to playing time questions, and did not draft either of them in the process. If for some reason you own one of the aforementioned shortstops and don’t have a backup plan, I feel sorry for you. If you’re looking to add a player off the wire and Lowrie is available, he might not be a bad pickup. If he hits, he’ll stay in the lineup. Bottom line.

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Another interesting name came up in the comments section when we did the shortstop keeper rankings last week. The Red Sox have a young shortstop from Stanford that had a good season, what’s his name again?

Right. Jed Lowrie. He of the nice walk rate (12.7% last year), booming ISO (.240 last year), and somewhat surprising 2010 slash line (.287/.381/.526), perhaps he should have been included? Perhaps.

But even before we get to his ability to repeat that performance, there is the fact that the Red Sox have an incumbent shortstop that may complicate issues. Marco Scutaro was just decent, but he’s predictable – he’s topped 2.1 WAR for three straight seasons now. Then again, Scutaro’s defense, now accrued in over 1400 plays, is below scratch (-3.5 UZR/150 career at SS). And he’s never shown a slugging percentage over .409, let alone over .500. If Lowrie can repeat his 2010 performance, Scutaro can easily settle into a super utility role… and there’s still the open job at third.

We can agree that Lowrie has more upside than Scutaro, and with 23 games at short under his belt, he’ll be eligible there – so now we can get to his ability to put up another OPS over .800. The variability in his possible 2011 performance kept him off the list at first, but perhaps it shouldn’t in deeper leagues. If Lowrie is to be an asset in fantasy baseball, he’s going to do it with his batting average and his power, so let’s unpack those portions of his game.

There’s no magic formula for a nice batting average. Lowrie, in his rookie season, showed a .258 batting average despite a strong .328 BABIP – and his strikeout rate was probably at fault (26.2%). In his lost 2009, Lowrie put up an eyesore of a .147 batting average by combining a terrible BABIP (.118) with lots of whiffs (29.4%). Lo and behold, once he ironed those two stats out last year (14.6% K%, .292 BABIP) and spawned this discussion most likely. That’s a lot of variance in his strikeout rate. Lowrie put up a 17.9% strikeout rate in the minor leagues (and over 20% in Triple-A), so it’s reasonable to expect him to strike out a little more next year. If he does, the batting average will most likely drop. This also meshes with his history well – even if you take out his lost 2009, he oscillated from .262 to .328 in the category down on the farm. Don’t pencil him in for a .280+ batting average.

Then again, plenty of players show value with poor batting averages, and a .500+ slugging percentage from a shortstop would paper over other flaws. He had a .161 ISO in the minor leagues, and his .172 major league ISO just barely topped the threshold for reliability (579 plate appearances). Since those plate appearances came over multiple years, it’s hard to say if even the .172 ISO is a repeatable skill for him. Looking over his minor league career, however, you will notice that he topped a .200 ISO in 2007 in Double- and Triple-A, and of course did so again last year. Only one qualifying shortstop last year topped a .200 ISO (Troy Tulowitzki), so this is no meaningless discussion.

Lowrie was a flyball hitter in the minor leagues – once he hit Triple-A, he never hit more than 33% of his balls on the ground – so at least he’s doing that part right. Sometimes players can have trouble with the line drive when they have so much loft in their swings, and even in his decent year last year, Lowrie showed a poor line drive rate (16.4%). There’s actually some upside left in him even if his strikeout rate returns. He could pair a strong line drive rate with all those flyballs and manage a decent batting average despite a worse strikeout rate – and of course his power stats would be happy with that combo.

Deep dynasty leaguers and AL-only keeper leaguers should find space on the end of their bench for Lowrie’s kind of upside. Because of the high level of variability in his possible outcomes, though, everyone else should probably just keep an eye on him in next year’s drafts.

Time to take a look at the shortstops and see if anything changed in the first couple of weeks. I’ll be alternating between the middle infield spots every weekend, just as an fyi. We’ll also use projected wOBA one last week.

The Big Four:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.410 wOBA)
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.393 wOBA)
3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.316 wOBA)
4. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.390 wOBA)

Jeter moves into the top group here. This is not because of his batting average – it’s a little BABIP-inflated even for a player with a player with a .360 career BABIP. He moves into the top because he’s showing (so far) that he’s still rejuvenated. The two stolen bases and two home runs in 10 games show that he’s still going to take off on the basepaths and that a 15/20 season looks probable. Add that to all his runs and RBI in that lineup, and his batting average, and you’ve got a top player once again. Rollins could drop out of this group – his injury doesn’t help, and may affect his steals totals this year – but he’s still a top option until he shows that he’s not going to attempt many steals when he returns.

The Next Best Thing:
5. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.342 wOBA)
6. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.321 wOBA)
7. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay (.389 wOBA)
8. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.316 wOBA)
9. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.322 wOBA)

There’s a lot of movement in this tier. Reyes moves to the front – and is the best candidate for replacing Rollins in the top tier – because he’s healthy. Two stolen base attempts in the first ten games is not enough to move him higher, but it still counts as a good sign. Once he starts taking off more, and shows a little more life in his bat, Reyes should re-join the top group.

Like most of us predicted, Bartlett is indeed regressing. But if he gets his walk rate back up to historical levels, the hope is still there that he can put a nice batting average and plus steals together at a tough position. Drew moves ahead of him because he looks like he is finally putting together the better parts of his game at one time. Once the line drives re-appear, he could have a career year. Furcal joins the group more because he’s playing every day and has four stolen bases than because of his gaudy batting average. His upside looks a little like Bartlett’s at this point in their respective careers.

Andrus joining the middle group may be premature, but he’s playing so well, and Alexei Ramirez so poorly, that not making this move seems more radical than promoting Andrus. He is hitting .323 and walking 10+% of the time. But on the negative side of the ledger stand his single stolen base and his inflated BABIP (.400), meaning the batting average may come down and he needs to steal more to move up any further. If Bartlett doesn’t pick up his walk rate, and Andrus keeps hitting frozen ropes, we may see a flip-flop there.

The Leftovers:
10. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.319 wOBA)
11. Marco Scutaro, Boston (.354 wOBA)
12. Yunel Escobar, Atlanta (.357 wOBA)
13. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles AL (.339 wOBA)
14. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland (.354 wOBA)
15. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.344 wOBA)

Cabrera and Escobar are not yet capitalizing on the gains they have made in their early careers, so the surprising repeating veteran Scutaro jumps ahead in the rankings. Scu-Scu-Scutaro is still not swinging at anything outside the zone, which bodes well for his newfound patient approach. Aybar moves up because he’s showing a nice walk rate in the early going (13%), but this part of the rankings has been generally underwhelming. Perhaps Alcides Escobar can begin stealing bases so that he can supplant someone here?

For Marco Scutaro the 2009 season was a career year for him on many fronts. His triple-slash of .282/.379/.409 marked career highs for him in each category which earned him a rather pleasant wRC+ of 117. Coupled with solid defense at shortstop, Scutaro, was worth 4.5 WAR. Not bad at all. This earned him his first lucrative free agent contract with the Boston Red Sox, a two-year deal worth $12 million.

Scutaro will be 34-years-old this season and what can we expect from the new shortstop entering the shortstop carousel in Boston?

First off, his .304 BABIP in 2009 may suggest regression upon first glance when you consider that Scutaro’s career BABIP is .289. Enter the Hardball Times BABIP Calculator and the system spits out an xBABIP of .311. While it’s useful to look at career BABIPs and recent trends it’d be hard to penalize Scutaro for his BABIP with the calculator confirming his 2009 score especially when we consider his altered approach at the plate.

Scutaro’s plate discipline statistics here are quite telling. Simply put, Scutaro stopped offering at so many pitches in 2009. His z-swing (55.5%-61.6% career) and swing percentages (34.5%-40.3% career) took big dips compared to his career and 2008 rates. This coincides with his career high 13.2% walk rate. Maintaining this new approach will be pivotal for Scutaro going forward as it seemed to take his performance to a different level and boosted his OBP to a very nice .379.

He also set career highs in homers (12), slugging percentage (.409), and stolen bases (14). Expecting around ten stolen bases next year looks like a reasonable assumption and lucky for Scutaro his new approach and power at the plate are two skills that don’t figure to erode as quickly with his age.

Scutaro is also moving to a friendly hitters park which figures to assist him and pad his line even if he isn’t as good as he was last year. He’s spent the majority of his career in Oakland and Toronto which are two prominent run suppressing environments.

Consider his home and road splits over the past three seasons according to wRC+.

2007: Home-76. Road-100.
2008: Home-88. Road-96.
2009: Home-105. Road-129.

This further cements the notion that the move to Fenway park is only going to help Scutaro. He is already familiar with the AL East and should enjoy spending half of his games at Fenway.

Scutaro may have peaked at a later age but if he can maintain the approach at the plate that he displayed last season then we should expect another solid season from Scutaro in 2010. He should also benefit from the strong forces around him in the line up. I’m very underwhelmed by THE FANS .272/.351/.379 projection for Scutaro. I like ZiPS’ .297/.378/.420 projection much more despite their super optimistic batting average.

While Scutaro isn’t a great fantasy option by any means he’s a good, cheap option if you’re bare at the shortstop position. He’s currently only owned in 58% of ESPNs leagues and is being drafted towards the very end of drafts. He should be owned in much more leagues. Don’t let Scutaro’s rare, late performance peak fool you. He’s in a good situation to excel in Boston and has a great chance of putting a stop to that shortstop carousel in Beantown for the next two seasons.

Heading into the 2009 season, no fantasy position was as screwed up as shortstop. The first three spots were written in stone but if you looked at 10 different rankings, it is possible you might not have found even two lists which had one player the same in their rankings from four through 20.

And if we thought it was a mess heading into the year, it has been even more unpredictable two-thirds of the way through the 2009 season. I am going to use the preseason rankings of my friend Troy Patterson from Roto Savants to illustrate this point. Patterson does excellent work and readers may recognize his name from comments he has left on articles here previously. I am going to compare his rankings versus the current numbers for SS from the RotoTimes Player Rater (RTPR).

1. Hanley Ramirez (RTPR #1) – Ramirez probably went in the top three of your draft, if not first overall. He checks in today with a dollar value of $33.19 and in raw dollars is the third-best fantasy hitter.

2. Jose Reyes (RTPR #25) – Reyes had been one of the most consistent fantasy players the past four seasons but has had this year ruined by his leg injuries.

3. Jimmy Rollins (RTPR #14) – Rollins deserved to be the third shortstop off the board this year but a first-round pick was too high. Rollins delivered first-round value in his MVP season of 2007 but that season he set career bests in four fantasy categories and also had 41 SB.

4. Jhonny Peralta (RTPR #19) – Peralta hit 20+ HR in three of the past four seasons but this year is on pace to hit just 14. Also, he projects to finish with just 66 R, after scoring 104 last season and finishing with 80 or more the previous three seasons.

5. J.J. Hardy (RTPR #31) – Hardy was coming off back-to-back strong fantasy seasons in which he contributed in four categories. For healthy players, he belongs in the conversation for biggest fantasy busts of the year with his -$5.08 dollar value so far.

6. Stephen Drew (RTPR #20) – Owners enthralled by his strong second half in 2008 have been really disappointed by Drew’s 2009 season. After putting up a .927 OPS after the All-Star break last year, only a strong season at home this year has kept 2009 from being a disaster. Drew has a .225 AVG away from Chase Field and a .667 OPS in road games.

7. Troy Tulowitzki (RTPR #6) – Injuries ruined Tulowitzki’s 2008 season and fantasy owners were cautious with him heading into this year. Tulowitzki got off to a slow start but since June 7th he has a .320-15-36-40-10 line in his last 50 games.

8. Derek Jeter (RTPR #2) – Jeter’s days as a fantasy star seemed to be over but he has surprised everyone by once again being a five-category fantasy player. After posting 11 HR and 11 SB in 150 games last year, Jeter has 11 HR and 19 SB in 99 games this season.

9. Michael Young (RTPR #3) – Another player whose best fantasy days seemed to be behind him, Young has thrived with a move to 3B, although he retains his SS eligibility for this season. Young is on pace for his best year since 2005, when he finished 11th in the MVP race.

10. Rafael Furcal (RTPR #23) – A trendy pick to be the fourth SS off the board, Furcal has been healthy this season but not nearly as productive as he was last year before going down with a back injury. Furcal has been hot lately and will likely move up among SS before the year is out.

Six of the top 10 players on this list have current positional ratings of 14 or lower. Compare that to Patterson’s first base list, in which eight of the players in his preseason top 10 currently rank in the top 11 spots at the position.

So, which players not listed above currently rank in the top 10 SS? They are as follows:

4. Jason Bartlett (Patterson preseason #23) – In his third season as a full-time player, Barlett is far surpassing numbers he put up previously. He already has established career-bests in HR and RBI and is only 3 SB off his personal best.

5. Miguel Tejada (Patterson #12) – A .339 BABIP is certainly helping to rejuvenate Tejada. But he also benefits from a strong performance in RBIs. Updated ZiPS forecasts him to finish with 92 RBIs, which would be his best mark since 2006 and 29 more than he produced last season.

7. Marco Scutaro (Patterson not in top 25) – In his age 33 season, Scutaro will establish career highs in all five fantasy categories. Yes, some of that is due simply to playing time, but Scutaro did post 592 PA last season.

8. Ryan Theriot (Patterson #15) – Most people were not as bullish on Theriot as Patterson was. He had a .340 BABIP last year (with no power) and the Dutton and Bendix xBABIP model had him for a .291 mark in the category. No one was expecting Theriot to post a .336 BABIP this season.

9. Yunel Escobar (Patterson #18) – It seems like just yesterday that pundits were referring to Escobar as a “Yutility infielder” and now he is a solid starter in a 12-team mixed league.

10. Asdrubal Cabrera (Patterson not in top 25) – Cabrera was draft worthy coming into the season due to his eligibility at both 2B and SS. A .359 BABIP has made him a starter in most leagues, although he has also contributed more SB than anyone expected.

There are a plethora of middle infielder surprise stories this year. Ben Zobrist‘s breakout season was just dissected by Dave Allen this week, and Dave Cameron touched on Marco Scutaro’s remarkable penchant for riding the wave this year.

A little less heralded, but no less surprising, has been the play of Nick Green in Boston. All six feet, 180 pounds of Green spent 2008 in the minor leagues in the Yankee organization, playing the middle infield and hitting poorly (.233/.285/.373). Talk about coming back from the dead. Green’s resurrection has brought him all the way to a .281/.337/.433 slash line, and fringe fantasy relevance as the nominal starter at shortstop on a good offensive team.

While defense is not usually a fantasy entity, I covered its importance this week while talking about Fernando Martinez and his chance of sticking in center field over the next couple of weeks in New York. In the same way, a discussion of Nick Green’s defense is in order.

It’s not like he was a player known for his defense at shortstop as he advanced through the Atlanta Braves’ system all those years ago. in fact, the last time he logged significant tries at the position was 2000, in high-A ball. Until Seattle and New York tried him there in 2007 and 2008, he logged about 40 games at the position. But he acquitted himself well while playing short, and his overall minor league Range Factor per nine innings was a decent 3.86.

This year he’s playing to his potential in the field, with a 3.8 RF/9 and a positive UZR rating. His 9 errors are a little worrisome, but he doesn’t have much competition from Julio Lugo, whose hands have turned to bricks this year. Lugo’s career 4.2 RF/9 is down to 2.8, he has 6 errors in half the attempts as Green. And his 14.1 lifetime UZR rating is down to -6.9 this year.

So you have one man whose lifetime .271/.335/.391 slash line and double-digit lifetime UZR rating are up against a hotter player with a lifetime .248/.314/.364 slash line and 9.5 lifetime UZR at the same position. This is a pretty classic battle, and if the difference on lifetime defense or offense was more pronounced, it would be much easier to come down on the side of the seasoned veteran.

It’s tough to parse the team’s attitude about playing time going forward, even if the decision seems to have been made in the present. Lugo has only 20 at-bats in June, which would seem to say that Green has won the battle. However, Lugo’s current .292/.361/.385 slash line may be some ready-made Maalox for the manager when Green’s offense starts to take the predictable slide.

But career seasons do happen. And Lugo is no prized veteran that deserves more tries at the position. The Boston fans certainly aren’t clamoring for more from the slap-hitting Lugo, especially if his defense continues to be putrid. So we come back to defense, because as long as Green plays better on that side of the ball, he’ll probably continue to start. The team has plenty of offense from its other positions.

On offense, ZiPS RoS projections seem about right for Green. They have him finishing the season with a .271/.322/.418 slash line, and some regression will happen. His BABIP is .344 (against a .323 career number), and his strikeout rate is currently significantly lower than his career rate. There’s nothing more damning than his current 40.5% O-Swing%, in the end. Even his career 26.5% reach rate is way too high reaching for a low-power middle infielder.

So for your deep-league fantasy managers that just need anything, anything at all from a starting middle infielder: Green means go… as long as he’s picking it at short. See some more errors in the box score, and you should get nervous.

Hopefully sometime last week you were able to pull off a James Shields for Cliff Lee trade. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of trade targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

J.J. Hardy – After back-to-back strong fantasy seasons, Hardy was atrocious in the month of April. He is hitting well in May but not to the point yet where his overall stats look good. Hardy may have dug too deep a hole to finish with an average close to what we expected at the beginning of the year, but he still should be right there in HR and RBIs.

Brett Cecil – He is only owned in 2.8 percent of ESPN leagues, which is great news because anyone who owns him is unlikely to trade him. The lefty throws four pitches, gets tons of ground balls (52.6%) and has 12 strikeouts in 14 innings. Cecil’s command may not be this good going forward, but throughout his minor league career he piled up the strikeouts and kept the ball in the park.

Adrian Beltre – The past three seasons Beltre has hit 25, 26 and 25 HR. Right now he has only one. Beltre is swinging at too many pitches and his 3.8 percent walk rate would easily be a career worst. Fantasy players usually undervalue Beltre and his slow start may frustrate his current owners. I still like his power potential for your corner infield slot.

Rick Porcello – After being smacked around pretty good in three of his first four starts, Porcello has had back-to-back strong outings. He may not be ready to dominate major league hitters, but Porcello has shown the ability to get ground balls (54.1%) and get hitters out. There is a minor worry about Porcello becoming the odd man out if/when Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis return, but he is still a nice option for the back of your rotation.

Emmanuel Burriss – The Giants want Burriss to succeed and they recently installed him as the team’s leadoff hitter. He is likely just a one-category performer but the updated ZiPS projection shows him with 41 SB. Burriss also comes with 2B and SS eligibility.

Trade

Felipe Lopez – In 2005 F-Lop had his best year in the majors, with a .291-23-85 line. He has not matched any of those numbers in the ensuing three years. Right now he sports a .323 AVG thanks to a .374 BABIP. Also, after three straight years of HR/FB rates in single digits, Lopez has a 13.3 percent mark. He undoubtedly will get a boost from Chase Field, but Lopez is unlikely to maintain his .954 home OPS. His road OPS sits at .710 and that’s with a .385 BABIP.

Corey Hart – It is going to take a strong finish for Hart to match the 20-20 expectations that most everyone had for him coming into the season. And with a .345 BABIP already, it is hard to predict much growth unless he gets his strikeouts under control. After back-to-back years of declining strikeout rates, Hart has a 28.7 K% in 2009. Furthermore, even when he does hit the ball, he is not hitting for much power. Hart’s .164 ISO would be a career low.

Randy Johnson – Everyone is pulling for Johnson to reach 300 career wins and he picked up his 298th Monday night. But Johnson hardly pitched well, as he allowed four ER in five IP. Johnson has had seven starts this season and has a Quality Start in just two of them. The strikeout numbers are still there (except for his 5/6 outing) which might make him attractive to other teams. But Johnson’s ERA and WHIP numbers are detrimental to your staff’s health.

Marco Scutaro – He has been the third most valuable fantasy shortstop up until this point, thanks to his having as many runs scored (32) as Albert Pujols. It is almost a guarantee that Scutaro will have a career year this season, mostly because the bar has been set so low. Scutaro is having a strong May in AVG and R but his power has disappeared and the RBIs have fallen off, too.

Scott Richmond – So far in 2009, Richmond has been a contributor in four categories. He throws four pitches and ranks tied for ninth among major league starters with a 30.8 percent O-Swing%. But Richmond has a 25.9 percent LD% and a .254 BABIP. His ZiPS projection for the rest of the season calls for a 6.21 ERA.