Archive for Marcell Ozuna

In rounding out my series on the most important factors influencing components of BABIP, I will be looking into what most affects a hitter’s batting average on ground balls. So far, the results of these analyses have been consistent. Launch angle has been the main driver of BABIP for pitchers, and it has been for hitters as well, at least when they are launching flyballs. The story is a different one, though, when hitters put the ball on the ground. Ground ball launch angle was not a significant factor in determining a hitter’s ground ball batting average, and neither was ground ball exit velocity.

Whether or not a hitter pulls grounders has much to say about whether that player will hit for average on grounders. There is a negative relationship between these variables that is significant at p < .0001 and with a Pearson’s r of .27. Even more important is how fast the hitter is. The Pearson’s r for the positive correlation between average sprint speed and ground ball batting average was .45.
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Not so long ago, when it came to pull-heavy power hitters, there was no equal to Brian Dozier. Based on developments currently unfolding this season, the genre could explode in 2020.

Back in 2016, Dozier was unique among major league hitters in his ability to pull flyballs at an extremely high rate consistently. Among hitters who launched at least 100 flies in both 2015 and 2016, Dozier was the only batter to exceed a 35 percent pull rate on flyballs in both seasons. He essentially lapped the field, surpassing a 40 percent rate in both campaigns. Then Dozier was the only hitter to pull off the feat in both 2016 and 2017.
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Another great Monday to you all! I don’t have as many specific players to go over, but the ones I do have listed I want to go into a little more detail on.

To start with, let’s go with Stephen Strasburg and his curious elbow/forearm.

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I mean, it’s not that surprising. It’s the only outfield with a Giancarlo Stanton, which would be enough to elevate any outfield out of the cellars. It has a Christian Yelich, too, who hits the ball hard but had been somewhat of a fantasy disappointment, having failed thus far to live up to any kind of power potential he once had.

Still, the Marlins are the game’s second-best offensive outfield, per wRC+ (weighted runs created). That’s kind of surprising. I mean, we knew the Pittsburgh Pirates’ outfield, which currently ranks first, would be good. And we probably thought the Chicago Cubs’ outfield, with all its talent and depth, would generate solid offensive numbers, but they’re only 10th.

While it’s a feel-good story riding on the high of a finally-vindicated Marcell Ozuna, it doesn’t look entirely sustainable. But it doesn’t mean we can’t dream, and there are some reasons to be optimistic about the already-established Stanton and Yelich as well as the still-young Ozuna.

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Last year, I hit .300 on my Bold Predictions, which is about what I aim for. That feels like the boldness sweet spot. This year, not so much. It saddens me to report that I was overly bold this year, getting just one Bold Prediction right. However, one other was incredibly close, so I’ll say that I hit .150 this season. Still, I can and will do better next year.

I have failed you, dear readers.

1. Jorge Soler is a top-ten outfielder.

Well, he was a top-100 outfielder, slotting in at No. 99 on the season. Soler battled his fair share of injuries this year, but even when he was healthy enough to play, he hit just .262/.324/.399, with 10 home runs in 404 plate appearances. For the year, he registered a 0.0 WAR. Here’s hoping he turns it around next season.

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On Friday, Adam McFadden wrote a piece in which he recommended nine players owned in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues. Adam’s work inspired me to do some digging of my own, and I managed to find some more widely unowned players who could give your team a serious boost down the stretch.

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He’s Back!

Drew Smyly (47%) – Although he looked pretty rusty in his first start since May on Sunday, Smyly needs to be owned pretty much across the board. He was dropped in a ton of leagues when he tore his labrum, to the point where he’s available in over half of Yahoo leagues. Dropping him was understandable, as the Rays initially said he was out for the year, only to retract that statement a week later.

I managed to snag him in a 12-team mixer where he had gone unnoticed on the waiver wire. Maybe you can too.

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